专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会 2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。前券商首席经济学家李大霄针对A股 已经到了4100点，不少散户朋友说股指涨得很高，但是收获感还不那么明显，前券商首席经济学家李大 霄提出了两点看法。 首先他强调，要把成本控制住，这个很重要。"让利润奔跑，坐轿不抬轿。一定要控制成本，很多人今 天买、明天卖，成本到了4200，它一调整就有问题。" 第二，他认为，往后"涨胖（价值增长）"的速度会远超"涨高（指数上涨）"的速度。 李大提到，"1月14日的数据是375点，2024年涨了376点，这个调控是很有道理的。为什么？半个月就涨 了2024年一年的涨幅，剩下的11个月加半个月怎么办呢？要想一想这个问题。" 此外，他还提出来几个观点： 第八，保险和有色有可能是先锋，但是高股息是大本营。"今天跌下来的是央企指数、红利指数、银行 指数、非银金融四大板块，但是昨天是有压盘的，第一大公司压盘是65亿，后面的某平安、某茅台，我 们不是推荐，压盘大概是10个亿，但是今天盘面，压盘已经改成托盘。所以，阶段性的降温有可能在昨 天已经完成。" 新浪声明：所有会议实录均 ...

從中銀宏觀視角到個股份析：江西銅業受益雙金屬漲價，技術關鍵位清晰 江西銅業股份（00358）股價維持強勢格局，最新報47.04元 ，上漲3.16%，股價與整個有色金屬板塊在近期集體走強，創下歷史新高。這一強勢表現背後的 核心驅動力，是市場對金屬價格持續上漲的強烈預期。尤其是貴金屬價格集體走高，現貨黃金與白銀等均再創歷史新高，主要得益於市場對美國降息的預期 不斷增強以及避險需求的上升。花旗銀行近期上調了對江西銅業的目標價，主要理由便是市場對銅和黃金的價格預期較高。 從技術圖表觀察，江西銅業呈現出典型的長期底部突破與短期超買壓力並存的複雜格局。一方面，股價展現出強勁的中長期向好信號。近期，該股的圖表出 現了典型的利好技術形態——"頭肩底"向上突破。這是一種重要的底部反轉形態，當股價有效升穿其頸線阻力時，通常預示著趨勢性的上升行情已經確認， 技術走勢向好。這一判斷也得到了技術分析平臺的支持，其綜合技術評級為"強力買入"，多個移動平均線和動量指標均發出積極信號。 市場對江西銅業的樂觀看法，與有色金屬板塊的整體邏輯以及公司自身的獨特稟賦密不可分。在1月13日的最新一期【中銀做客】專欄中，中銀國際董事 Niki明確表達了 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.6%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.02% [1] - Over 3,600 stocks fell across the two markets, with a total trading volume of 1.87 trillion [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and AI application sectors experienced significant declines, with high-profile stocks such as Province Advertising Group, Zhejiang Wenlian, Galaxy Electronics, and others hitting the daily limit down [3] - More than 20 industry sectors, including Pinduoduo concept, DRG/DIP, satellite internet, and Kimi concept, saw declines exceeding 4% [3] - Conversely, the tourism and hotel sector showed resilience, with Zhongxin Tourism achieving two consecutive limit-up days and Shaanxi Tourism hitting the daily limit up [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector also rose, with Sichuan Gold and Luoping Zinc Electric reaching the daily limit up [3] - The commercial retail concept saw localized gains, with Xinhua Department Store and Xinhua Du both achieving two consecutive limit-up days [3] News Highlights - Nvidia announced that its GB300 AI server will begin large-scale deliveries in Q2 2026 [3] - Qianwen App has fully integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, enabling AI shopping functionalities such as food delivery, purchasing items, and booking flights, and is open for testing to all users [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent monetary policy adjustments by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) aimed at stimulating economic growth, particularly focusing on support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and technological innovation [4][5][8][10]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - Starting January 19, 2026, the PBOC will lower the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year re-lending respectively [4][8]. - An additional 400 billion yuan will be allocated to support technological innovation and transformation loans, increasing the total to 1.2 trillion yuan [5][10]. - The PBOC will also increase the re-lending quota for agricultural and small business support by 500 billion yuan, with a total quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [5][10]. Support for Green Projects - Projects related to energy efficiency, green upgrades, and low-carbon transitions will be included in the carbon reduction support tool, with an annual operation limit of 800 billion yuan [5][10]. Market Reactions - The article notes a mixed performance in the stock market, with significant fluctuations in various sectors, particularly in technology and materials [15][28]. - The semiconductor sector is highlighted, with companies like TSMC planning substantial capital expenditures and projecting significant sales growth [18][22]. Economic Indicators - In December, new RMB loans totaled 910 billion yuan, marking the lowest seasonal increase since 2018, with corporate loans being the primary contributor [12]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8.5% year-on-year, indicating ample liquidity in the market, while M1 growth was only 3.8%, suggesting businesses are not converting funds into active deposits for expansion [12].

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 1月15日，顺博合金发布公告称，公司2026年第一次临时股东会审议通过《关于2026年为 全资及控股子（孙）公司提供担保的议案》《关于2026年开展商品期货期权套期保值业务的议案》。 ...

Market Overview - Today's market trading volume decreased by over 1 trillion compared to the same period yesterday, returning to the level of 3 trillion [1] - The significant reduction in volume is seen as a normal response to the unusual surge in trading volume caused by sudden news yesterday afternoon [1] - Regulatory pressure from yesterday has lowered trading sentiment, which is considered a normal phenomenon [1] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector showed a rebound in the afternoon, indicating that the market's rhythm remains unchanged, focusing on technology, commercial aerospace, domestic computing power, AI applications, and autonomous driving [1] - When technology stocks decline, resource stocks tend to rise, and vice versa, demonstrating a liquidity-driven market dynamic [2] - The resource sector experienced a divergence with external futures, as domestic metal prices fell in response to external market movements [2] Investment Strategy - The current strategy emphasizes caution, advising against blind chasing of high prices and suggesting to either take profits or hold positions after funds rotate and lift stocks [1] - The market liquidity is currently abundant, with opportunities for self-repair, and funds are concentrated in technology and resource sectors [2] - The consumer sector remains weak, but potential policy support is anticipated as the Spring Festival approaches, suggesting a low-positioning strategy for this sector [2]

1月15日，A股市场主要指数涨跌不一，全市场超3100股下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4112.6点，下跌0.33%；深证成指收报14306.73点，上涨0.41%；创业板指收报3367.92 点，上涨0.56%。两市合计成交29054.96亿元，较上一交易日减少10358.93亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超500亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出225.52亿元，尾盘净流入49.73亿元，全天净流出509.2亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225. 52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504. 74 | -71.84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | -718. 20 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | - ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 102,810.00 | -1310.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,028.50 | -160.00↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -250.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 235,877.00 | -5355.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -60,872.00 | +8097.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 141,625.00 | +75.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 180,543.00 | +35201.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 51,000.00 | -825.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 162,717.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 102,575.00 | -134 ...

今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出225.52亿元，尾盘净流入49.73亿元，全天净流出509.2亿元。 1月15日，A股市场主要指数涨跌不一，全市场超3100股下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4112.6点，下跌0.33%；深证成指收报14306.73点，上涨0.41%；创业板指收报 3367.92点，上涨0.56%。两市合计成交29054.96亿元，较上一交易日减少10358.93亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超500亿元 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225.52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504.74 | -71. 84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286.54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | -718. 20 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | - ...

今年以来，铜价连创历史新高，1月14日，伦敦金属交易所期铜一度创出每吨13407美元的历史新高；国 内铜期货也飙升至每吨10万元以上。某加工企业负责人介绍，AI算力需求呈爆发式增长，单个芯片功 耗从几百瓦飙升至几千瓦，对散热和导电性能提出了严苛要求，因此一个机柜的线材和散热器用铜量需 要数百公斤。分析认为，此次铜价快速上涨，既有供需失衡的影响，也有情绪溢价与资金炒作等多重因 素。从供给来看，秘鲁、智利等南美国家的铜储量占全球40%，却受能源紧张等因素影响，铜矿市场供 应持续紧张。从需求来看，AI数据中心、新能源汽车、机器人等新兴领域的用铜需求快速增长，成为 支撑铜价的重要力量。 （央视财经） ...