Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses a mining company involved in copper, lead, and zinc production, with a focus on their operational performance and production plans for the year. Key Points and Arguments Production and Sales Performance - The company reported a stable mineral production output, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in production from Qianxin, which is primarily sourced from Inner Mongolia's Xibu Copper Industry and Huokqi Copper Mine [1] - In Q1, the copper-gold mine production reached 26% of the annual target, indicating a potential to exceed the previously set goal of 168,000 tons for the year, despite a planned reduction of 10,000 tons compared to last year [3] - The company plans to conduct major maintenance in December, which is typically the month with the most adverse mining conditions [4] Financial Performance and Challenges - The copper smelting segment is under pressure, with processing fees currently negative at $30, leading to a loss in Q1 despite an increase in profits compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company aims to reduce losses in the copper smelting segment by improving raw material structure and increasing procurement of lower-cost mixed ores [7] - The overall processing fees for domestic copper are lower than imported copper, with processing costs ranging from 4,800 to 5,300 [9] Raw Material Supply and Procurement - The company anticipates a stable supply of raw materials, with a significant portion of lead and zinc needing to be sourced externally due to insufficient internal production [12][13] - The supply of new raw materials is expected to improve compared to previous years, with lower procurement difficulties noted [13] Cost Management and Future Outlook - The complete cost of copper and lead production is reported to be stable, with expectations of cost reductions as new projects come online [16][17] - The company is focusing on internal management improvements and cost reduction strategies to enhance profitability in the coming year [8] Project Developments - The company is progressing on the Phase III expansion project at Yulong Copper Mine, expected to be completed by late next year, with a short production ramp-up time anticipated [22][23] - The total investment for the project is estimated at 5 billion, with cash flow management indicating that the company can handle the financial burden over the next few years [23] Miscellaneous - The company has experienced a return to asset impairment of 60 million, primarily due to previous inventory adjustments, but expects this to be less significant than last year [20] - The company is actively engaging in exploration and resource expansion as a key focus area for future growth [24] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is not currently signing long-term contracts for processing fees, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations [9] - The Q1 performance of the company shows a cumulative revenue of 3.1 billion with a profit of 1.89 billion, reflecting a strong operational performance despite market challenges [15]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has reiterated a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., with a target price of HKD 8.5 for its H-shares, following the company's positive earnings forecast for the first half of the year, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [1][2] Group 1: Production Costs and Profit Forecast - Management expects production costs to remain stable quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 but decrease year-on-year, with TFM copper mine costs projected between USD 5,500 and 6,000 per ton, and KFM copper mine costs between USD 3,000 and 3,500 per ton [1] - The company anticipates net profit for the first half of the year to reach between RMB 8.2 billion and 9.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 51% to 68%, aligning with Bank of America's predictions and exceeding market consensus [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Profit Growth - Profit growth is primarily driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, with Q2 2025 copper prices expected at USD 9,538 per ton, a 2% year-on-year decline but a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase; cobalt hydroxide prices increased by 61% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 188,000 per ton [2] - Increased production and sales volumes contributed to profit growth, with copper metal output for the first half of the year at 354,000 tons, a 13% year-on-year increase, and cobalt metal output at 61,000 tons, also a 13% year-on-year increase [2] - Q2 copper production is projected at 183,000 tons, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase and a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, with annualized production exceeding 700,000 tons, surpassing the company's guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons for the year [2]

1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's operating performance has reached a new high, with significant year-on-year growth in net profit and operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 [1][5][9]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [1][5]. - The expected non-net profit is around 215 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [1][5]. - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of about 130 billion yuan, up 27% from Q1 [5][6]. Production and Sales - Zijin Mining's production of key minerals such as copper, gold, and silver has increased, with production levels reaching about 50% of the annual targets [2][7]. - The company reported a significant increase in lithium carbonate production, reaching 7,315 tons, a year-on-year growth of nearly 30 times [3][7]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company's strong performance is attributed to strategic acquisitions, including a 137.29 billion yuan acquisition of a 24.82% stake in Zangge Mining, which provided control over additional resources [3][10]. - Zijin Mining continues to pursue acquisitions, including a recent plan to acquire 100% of the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD [11]. Resource Base - As of the end of 2024, Zijin Mining's total resource base includes over 110 million tons of copper, 4,000 tons of gold, and significant amounts of lithium and silver, positioning the company as a key player in the energy transition metals market [10][12]. - The company has shown consistent growth in its resource base, with increases in copper, gold, and silver reserves reported [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's significant profit growth in the first half of 2025 is attributed to rising prices of key products such as copper and cobalt, alongside increased production and sales volumes [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [2] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 8.3 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47.55% to 63.55% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Production and Sales - The production of cobalt metal reached 61,100 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.05% [2] - Copper metal production was 353,600 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of about 12.68% [2] - The completion rate for the 2025 production guidance is 56% [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company has successfully acquired 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [5] - The project is expected to commence production in 2028, with an anticipated annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [5] - The company aims to enhance its organizational structure and management to achieve its annual operational goals and foster significant growth [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The Congolese government has extended a ban on cobalt raw material exports, but the company believes this will not have a significant impact on its operations [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, alongside increased production and sales of copper products [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders between 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.83 billion to 36.83 billion yuan, or a growth of 51.37% to 67.98% [2]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 8.3 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, an increase of 26.75 billion to 35.75 billion yuan, translating to a growth of 47.55% to 63.55% year-on-year [2]. Production and Sales - For the first half of 2025, copper production is expected to reach 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68%, while cobalt production is projected at 61,100 tons, up about 13.05% [2][3]. - The completion rate for copper production based on the mid-point of the 2025 production guidance is 56% [3]. Market Trends - Copper prices have shown an upward trend in the first half of the year, with global exchanges reporting price increases between 5% to 20% [2]. - Cobalt prices have also surged, with a reported increase of approximately 50% from January 2 to June 30 [2]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold for 581 million Canadian dollars, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, which adds significant gold resources to its portfolio [4]. - The Cangrejos Project has an estimated resource of 1.376 billion tons with an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold, and is expected to have a service life of 26 years [4]. Future Outlook - The Cangrejos Project is planned to commence production in 2028, with an expected annual gold output of 11.5 tons [4]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in South America to enhance operational synergies and utilize advanced mining technologies for the new gold project [4].

Company - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [3] - For Q2 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is around 13 billion yuan, which is a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 27% compared to Q1 2025 [3] - The company plans to spin off its overseas gold assets into a subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - The company announced the acquisition of the RG gold mine in Kazakhstan for a preliminary consideration of 1.2 billion USD, with projected sales revenue of 473 million USD and net profit of 202 million USD for 2024 [6] Industry - The company is optimistic about the continued rise in gold and copper prices in 2025, driven by central bank purchases of gold to hedge against dollar credit risks and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - The copper industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with prices likely to rise gradually following domestic stimulus policies and U.S. interest rate cuts [7]

21世纪经济报道记者董鹏 成都报道 紫金矿业，仍在不断刷新其盈利纪录。 7月13日晚间，紫金矿业发布业绩预告，预计上半年净利润约232亿元，同比增加约54%。 其中，二季度预计归属上市公司股东的净利润约130亿元，实现同比、环比增长的同时，再次创出上市 以来单季度净利润的新高。 就公司主营业务来看，上半年国际金价上涨对公司盈利的拉动尤为明显。当期，伦敦金现货涨幅达到 25.84%，同时紫金矿业矿产金产量增长17%，价格涨幅、产量增幅均显著高于公司另一主营产品铜。 需要指出的是，紫金矿业这类公司的盈利增长，往往会滞后于大宗商品价格的上涨，在金、铜价格保持 历史高位的背景下，公司盈利仍然具备增长可能。 价量齐升，黄金立功 周期股的魅力之一，就是行业上行周期所爆发的高弹性、高收益，即便是既有的利润基数已经很高。 紫金矿业就是如此，公司在一季度盈利首次突破100亿元后，二季度利润规模进一步拔高至130亿元左 右。 "矿产金、矿产铜、矿产锌、矿产银销售价格同比上升。"紫金矿业半年度业绩预告指出。 不过，就紫金矿业历史利润构成来看，锌、银所贡献的利润规模较小，公司主要盈利源于金、铜产品。 而就上半年价格走势来看，黄金对其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have announced significant changes in their financial forecasts and strategic decisions, indicating varied performance across different sectors in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Company Announcements - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% stakes in Yiyang Rubber and Plastic Machinery Group and Beihua Machinery, with stock suspension starting July 15, 2025, for up to 10 trading days [3]. - Jiugui Liquor expects a net profit decline of 90.08% to 93.39% in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue around 560 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 43% year-on-year [5]. - Suli Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 1008.39% to 1223.91%, with expected profits between 72 million and 86 million yuan, driven by improved market conditions [6]. - Te Yi Pharmaceutical forecasts a net profit growth of 1164.22% to 1312.95%, with profits expected between 34 million and 38 million yuan, supported by strong sales of its core product [7]. - Huahong Technology predicts a net profit increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94%, with expected profits between 70 million and 85 million yuan, benefiting from rising rare earth product prices [8]. - Huaxia Airlines expects a net profit increase of 741.26% to 1008.93%, with profits projected between 220 million and 290 million yuan, due to improved demand for air travel [9]. - Xianfeng Holdings anticipates a net profit increase of 524.58% to 671.53%, with expected profits between 34 million and 42 million yuan, largely due to non-recurring gains [10]. - Xinyisheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68% to 385.47%, with profits projected between 370 million and 420 million yuan, driven by growth in AI-related investments [12]. - Hengsheng Electronics forecasts a net profit increase of approximately 740.95%, with expected profits around 251 million yuan, aided by significant non-recurring gains [13]. - CICC anticipates a net profit increase of 55% to 78%, with expected profits between 3.453 billion and 3.966 billion yuan, driven by growth in investment banking and wealth management [14]. - Xinda Securities expects a net profit increase of 50% to 70%, with profits projected between 921 million and 1.044 billion yuan, supported by improved asset management [15]. - Shanxi Securities forecasts a net profit increase of 58.17% to 70.72%, with expected profits between 504 million and 544 million yuan, driven by growth in wealth management and international business [16]. - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75% to 1174.69%, with expected profits between 493 million and 548 million yuan, primarily due to non-recurring gains from asset sales [17]. - China Rare Earth expects a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 244 million yuan in the previous year, aided by improved market conditions [18]. - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of 480 million to 520 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 177 million yuan, driven by successful game launches and esports growth [19]. - Huanghe Xuanfeng expects a net loss of 285 million yuan, impacted by intense competition and weak demand in the superhard materials sector [20][21]. - JA Solar forecasts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan, worsening from a loss of 874 million yuan, due to industry-wide supply-demand imbalances [22]. - Shanxi Black Cat anticipates a net loss of 490 million to 540 million yuan, driven by declining sales and prices of its main products [23]. - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to reduced project deliveries and impairment provisions [24]. Major Contracts - Zhongchen Co. won a project from Southern Power Grid worth 379 million yuan, representing 12.26% of its audited revenue for 2024 [26]. - Gaode Infrared signed a procurement agreement for a complete equipment system worth 879 million yuan, accounting for 32.84% of its 2024 audited revenue, expected to positively impact this year's performance [27].

国城矿业（000688）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为4.93亿元–5.48亿元，比上年同期的4299.1万元增 长1,046.75%–1,174.69%。 ...