Group 1 - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with online retail sales increasing by 8.5% [2] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth exceeded 52% in the second quarter, indicating strong consumer demand [2][3] Group 2 - Foreign institutions, including Citibank and Goldman Sachs, have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2025, reflecting sustained economic momentum [3] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.2 percentage points in June, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Despite external uncertainties, the Chinese economy is expected to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year, supported by structural adjustments and high-quality development practices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for deeper reforms to address current economic challenges and set appropriate growth targets for the future [2][4][28]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Targets - The average economic growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is approximately 5.5%, with a target of around 5% for the current year [1][5]. - The GDP is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, marking significant growth from previous years [1][6]. - Experts suggest setting a growth target of around 5% for the "15th Five-Year Plan," considering the need to achieve modernization goals by 2035 [7][8]. Group 2: Effective Demand and Consumption - The article identifies insufficient effective demand as a major issue, driven by external pressures and weak domestic consumption, particularly in the real estate sector [10]. - Recommendations to boost effective demand include stabilizing the real estate market, increasing residents' income, and removing consumption restrictions [11][12]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the sales area and sales volume of new homes, but confidence still needs to be restored [20][21]. - Future strategies to support the real estate market include removing restrictive policies, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers, and enhancing financial support for housing projects [21][23]. Group 4: Service Industry Development - The service sector is increasingly important, and there is a need to align service supply with consumer demand by breaking down barriers to entry and encouraging investment [16][17]. - Policies should support the development of the service industry through financial incentives and reducing unnecessary regulatory hurdles [17][18]. Group 5: Deepening Reforms - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms to address economic challenges, including enhancing the role of state-owned enterprises and promoting a unified national market [28][29]. - Key reform areas include improving market regulation, reducing government intervention, and expanding institutional openness to align with international standards [30].

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 07 月 17 日 "反内卷"：市场可能误解了什么？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之四 市场对"反内卷"重视度明显上升，但对"内卷"的理解却有很大分歧；多数观点以供给侧改革的 思维理解，但差之毫厘、谬以千里；除产量调控与自律约谈外，"反内卷"也有很多"隐藏手段"。 ⚫ 误解"内卷内涵"："反内卷"="反过剩"？ 需求成因不同："过剩"是需求下滑、供给被动过剩，"内卷"是需求强劲领域供给主动增加。供 给侧改革前，地产基建需求走弱，高耗能行业产能被动过剩；当下外需表现更强，但外需行业固定 资产周转率下滑至历史最低水平（2.6 以下），内需行业固定资产周转率虽在下行，但仍处于历史中 位数，外需行业比内需行业更卷；外卖等服务业（非贸易部门）不存在产能过剩问题、但也在内卷。 物价表现不同："过剩"是企业因需求下滑跟随式降价，"内卷"是企业因需求强劲"降价无序竞 争"。供给侧改革前，地产基建需求走弱，煤炭钢铁等 PPI 随之明显回落，相关行业制造业投资也 下行；当下内卷领域，盈利偏弱而制造业投资大幅扩张，外需领域投资增速更高（13%）。出口商 品价格（同比-5%以下）甚至低于相同商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising importance of "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept of "involution" and its implications for supply-side reforms and economic structure transformation [2][3]. Group 1: Misunderstanding of "Involution" - "Involution" is not equivalent to "overcapacity"; it arises from strong demand leading to proactive supply increases, contrasting with passive overcapacity due to demand decline [3][4]. - The price behavior differs: "overcapacity" leads to price drops due to demand decline, while "involution" results in chaotic price competition despite strong demand [3][4]. - Supply-side reforms previously addressed overcapacity in high-energy sectors, while current "anti-involution" focuses on the middle and lower reaches of the industry, particularly private enterprises [4][5]. Group 2: Targeted Areas of "Anti-Involution" - The high-energy sector has undergone significant capacity upgrades, and traditional backward capacity is not as pronounced as during previous reforms [5][6]. - Policies may target specific industries with excessive growth, such as coal and pork, to stabilize prices, but the focus is more on aligning supply with demand rather than drastically reducing supply [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Mechanisms - Effective "anti-involution" strategies should not solely rely on self-discipline talks but should include industry mergers, raising standards, and matching supportive policies [8][9]. - Historical experiences from Japan, the US, and Germany suggest that fostering non-price competition and developing non-overcapacity sectors, like services, is crucial for addressing the root causes of "involution" [8][9]. Group 4: Equipment Update and Debt Management - Addressing the issue of equipment updates is vital, as many industries retain old equipment while acquiring new, which can lead to inefficiencies [9][142]. - The current situation shows a significant increase in overdue accounts, particularly among private enterprises, indicating a need for stricter debt management policies [152][160].

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] - The external environment has become increasingly complex and severe, but proactive macro policies have shown effectiveness, leading to a stable and positive economic trend [1] Economic Stability - The GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, indicating a steady economic performance [2] - The average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from Q1 [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline, but rose in June after four consecutive months of decrease [2] - The total import and export volume reached a record high for the same period [2] Consumption Trends - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [5] - There is an increasing share of service consumption, with holiday consumption playing a significant role and a rise in upgraded consumption and green consumption trends [5] Innovation and New Industries - The number of effective invention patent applications reached nearly 5 million from January to May, growing by 12.8% [6] - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with its core industries accounting for about 10% of GDP [6] - The service sector plays a crucial stabilizing role, and green industries are thriving, contributing to improved economic circulation [6] Domestic Demand and Policy Support - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [8] - A series of policies have been introduced to strengthen domestic circulation, expand demand, and promote production [8] Future Outlook - The year marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the preparation for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for China's economy to provide more stability and certainty to the global economy [10]

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.4%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.8%[2] Market Expectations - Market expectations for June CPI were 2.64% year-on-year and 0.25% month-on-month, which were closely met[5] - Core CPI expectations were 2.95% year-on-year and 0.23% month-on-month, also aligning with actual results[2] Contributing Factors - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and energy prices[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, reflecting volatility due to geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49%, indicating a halt in the continuous decline observed earlier this year[6] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, suggesting a stable labor market despite some weakness in service sector employment[6] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has improved significantly, with the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan dropping by 1.6 percentage points to 5%[2] - The five-year inflation expectation also decreased to 4%, indicating reduced concerns about inflation among consumers[2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the inflationary impact of tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months as businesses deplete their inventories[7] - Risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain high, with potential for renewed price increases if trade conditions worsen[7]

Economic Performance - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1] Consumer Trends - There is a growing demand for higher quality green and low-carbon products, as well as active consumption in entertainment, sports, and tourism [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, while service retail sales grew by 5.3% [2] - Service consumption expenditure accounted for approximately 45% of residents' disposable income, indicating an ongoing optimization of consumption structure [2] Trade and Supply Chain - China's economic momentum is strengthening, driven by industrial structure upgrades and the development of the digital economy, creating new opportunities [3] - China's export growth is supported by supply stability and resilience, indicating potential for continued stable growth in foreign trade [3] Financial Support - The cost of funds has been decreasing, with the weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending dropping from 1.86% in January to 1.46% in June [4] - The weighted average interest rate for pledged repos fell from 2.16% in January to 1.5% in June, supporting the stability of the real economy [4] Real Estate Market - The decline in nominal mortgage rates has led to a recovery in real estate sales and prices, with a positive outlook for major cities [5] - Policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and activating demand in the real estate sector are being effectively implemented [5] Competition and Market Dynamics - It is crucial to distinguish between fair competition and "involutionary competition," as the latter distorts market price signals and leads to unfavorable outcomes [6] - The role of industry associations is emphasized in regulating unfair competition and enhancing effective demand [6] Economic Outlook - The long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, with confidence in achieving annual economic growth targets [7] - The second half of the year is expected to show stronger trade performance due to consumer promotions and significant holidays [7] - If GDP growth maintains around 5% in the second half, the annual growth rate could exceed 5%, slightly above the government's initial target [7]

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024[2] - In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[7] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, significantly above the market expectation of 5.5%[3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth in the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, below the expected 3.7%, and down 1.4 percentage points from Q1[3] - Retail sales in June showed a nominal year-on-year growth of 4.8%, lower than the expected 5.6%[12] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong domestic demand[4] Sector Performance - The contribution of the tertiary sector (services) to GDP reached 60.1% in the first half of 2025, the highest in two years[4] - Manufacturing investment growth was 7.5%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 11.2%[3] - The trade surplus in June was $114.8 billion, with a cumulative surplus of $586 billion in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35%[11] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance due to economic growth, industry competition, external economic conditions, and policy changes[5] - Despite a stable unemployment rate of 5.0% in June, the youth unemployment rate remains high, indicating ongoing labor market challenges[29]

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660,536 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[1] - In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points from May[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June amounted to 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from May[1] Investment and Consumption - From January to June, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from January to May[1] - In June, the month-on-month growth of fixed asset investment was only 0.5%, a significant drop of 2.4 percentage points from May[12] - The decline in consumption was particularly pronounced in the catering sector, where growth plummeted from 5.9% in May to 0.9% in June[15] Trade and Employment - In June, the total import and export volume reached 38,527 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, including exports of 23,394 billion yuan, up 7.2%[1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in June remained stable at 5.0%, consistent with the previous month and the same month last year[16] - The export growth rate in June was 5.8%, significantly higher than the expected 3.2%[40]

细看这份"成绩单"，一系列数据勾勒出经济高质量发展的三条主线：消费对经济增长拉动作用显著，服 务业增势向好，经济结构呈现向"优"之姿；新产业、新技术、新业态继续保持较快发展，发展动能展现 向"新"之态；经济可持续发展能力增强，再加上宏观政策协同发力，经济有望延续向"好"之势。 ◎记者 陈芳 国家统计局7月15日发布数据显示，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%，增速比去年同期和全 年均提升0.3个百分点。 "上半年经济运行总体平稳，稳中有进、稳中向好，是一份含金量非常高的'成绩单'。"国家统计局副局 长盛来运当天在国新办新闻发布会上表示，这是在二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的 情况下取得的成绩，非常不容易。 向新：新质生产力加快发展 向优：消费担当"压舱石" 上半年经济运行突出一个"稳"字。数据显示，上半年GDP达660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 5.3%。分季度看，一季度同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。从环比看，二季度GDP增长1.1%。 "整体来看，中国经济增长走势平稳，全年大概率能够完成5%的增速目标。"中国社科院世经政所全球 宏观室主任肖立晟说。 从上半年经济数据 ...