1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remained in a box - shock range this week. Despite the lower - than - expected net Treasury bond purchase scale announced this week, the central bank's support for liquidity remains unchanged. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to continue the narrow - range shock pattern this year, and the impact of the redemption fee rate new rules will be mitigated. A rapid rise in interest rates due to the new rules could present a good entry opportunity [1][16]. - Last week, the monetary policy orientations of the US, Europe, and Japan tended towards marginal balance. After the China - US Busan dialogue, the overall overseas certainty decreased marginally, and the technology valuation faced short - term pressure. However, in 2026, with the change of the Fed chairman, the Fed is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy, and the technology market may continue until the second half of 2026 [2][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View 3.1.1 Analysis of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Purchase - From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 1.35bp from 1.7925% to 1.8060%. Market sentiment, the central bank's bond - buying scale, the stock - bond relationship, and the expected implementation of the new fund fee rules all affected the yield fluctuations [1][11][12]. - The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. The impact of the new redemption fee rate rules will be mitigated by the transition period, and the central bank's support for liquidity remains strong. A rapid rise in interest rates due to the new rules will create a good entry opportunity [16]. 3.1.2 Analysis of US Bond Yield Trends - Last week, the monetary policy orientations of the US, Europe, and Japan tended towards marginal balance. After the China - US Busan dialogue, overseas uncertainty increased, and risk - aversion sentiment emerged. The technology market may face short - term pressure but is expected to recover in 2026 [2][19]. - In the US, the commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly in the week of October 31, 2025, mainly due to loose supply and insufficient demand. The ISM manufacturing PMI index in October was lower than expected, indicating weak manufacturing vitality. The Fed's internal differences on the December interest - rate cut path intensified, with different stances from radical doves, moderate doves, and hawks [2][20][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from November 3 to 7, 2025, the net investment was - 15,722 billion yuan, mainly due to the large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases [35]. - The money - market interest rates showed a downward trend overall this week [36][37]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macro Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area showed mixed trends. Steel prices declined across the board, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [57][58][61]. - The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, 7 - day annualized yield of Yu'E Bao, and vegetable price index all had their own trends [62][65][70]. - The VIX panic index led the rise, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the fall. US bond yields increased overall compared to half a month ago, and the term spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US bonds, and between 10 - year and 3 - month US bonds decreased [74][79][80]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 32 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan, including 45.211 billion yuan of refinancing bonds and 46.396 billion yuan of new special bonds. The net financing was - 33.641 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, highway, and shantytown renovation projects [89]. - Five provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningbo, Fujian, and Inner Mongolia ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [96]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local bonds was 53.78 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 40.6417 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.76%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Shandong, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [104]. - The overall yield of local bonds declined this week [109]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The local bond issuance plans of various provinces and cities for this month are presented, including the planned issuance amounts of Chongqing, Shandong, and other places [112]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 316 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 288.652 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 198.141 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 90.511 billion yuan, an increase of 106.811 billion yuan compared to last week [110]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 9.80 billion yuan, and the net financing of industrial bonds was 91.491 billion yuan [111][115]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various credit bond types decreased this week, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all showing downward trends [122]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 592.039 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [123]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield of China Development Bank bonds increased across the board this week [124]. - The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed mixed trends, while the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally declined [124][125][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed this week [130][132][134]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes generally narrowed this week [137][140].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly credit bond research report by Xiangcai Securities, dated November 9, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The credit bond market showed a mixed performance this week. The primary market saw an increase in issuance and net financing, while the secondary market experienced slower trading and a narrowing of most credit spreads. Looking ahead, the credit bond market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, and investors could consider moderately extending the duration and focusing on the narrowing spread opportunities of 5 - year credit bonds [3][4][6] Group 4: Primary Market of Credit Bonds - From November 3 - 9, 2025, a total of 337 credit bonds (excluding policy - bank bonds) were issued, with a scale of about 457.667 billion yuan, and 155 bonds matured, with a total repayment of about 250.715 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of about 206.952 billion yuan. The issuance volume increased, and the total repayment decreased, leading to a significant rise in net financing [3][9] - By category, enterprise bonds issued 1 bond with a scale of about 1.6 billion yuan, a net financing of about - 3.066 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 131 bonds with a scale of about 103.88 billion yuan, a net financing of about 34.5 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 94 bonds with a scale of 91.915 billion yuan, a net financing of about 30.254 billion yuan; and short - term financing issued 68 bonds with a scale of about 78.532 billion yuan, a net financing of about 29.684 billion yuan [10] Group 5: Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - From November 3 - 9, 2025, the inter - bank market traded 484.495 billion yuan, and the exchange traded 406.434 billion yuan, with a total trading volume of 890.929 billion yuan, indicating slower trading. Secondary trading was mainly concentrated in corporate bonds and medium - term notes [4][17] - Credit bond yields varied. For medium - and short - term notes, short - end yields generally increased, while 3 - year and 5 - year yields showed different changes. Enterprise bond yields of high - grade bonds mostly increased, while those of medium - and low - grade bonds generally decreased. For urban investment bonds, 1 - year yields increased, and 5 - year yields decreased [21] - Due to the general increase in the risk - free rate, most credit spreads narrowed. The narrowing range of medium - and short - term note credit spreads was between 1 - 12BP; enterprise bond credit spreads narrowed by 2 - 9BP; and urban investment bond credit spreads changed between - 11 - 2BP [4][21] Group 6: Credit Bond Default or Extension - No credit bonds defaulted or were extended from November 3 - 9, 2025 [5][22] Group 7: Investment Recommendations - The central bank maintained a net withdrawal this week, the risk - free rate fluctuated weakly, and the credit bond market showed a mixed performance. In terms of the yield structure, short - end yields of credit bonds generally increased, while long - end yields mostly decreased [6][23] - In October, exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, affected by the high base last year and the weakening of the "rush - to - export" effect, while imports increased by 1% year - on - year, showing continuous domestic demand recovery. In terms of capital, the central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading in October was 20 billion yuan, which, although smaller than the same period last year, helps release liquidity in the long run. Coupled with the alleviation of banks' liability - side pressure, most capital interest rates decreased [6][23] - Looking ahead, the credit bond market is expected to continue its volatile pattern. Investors could consider moderately extending the duration and focusing on the narrowing spread opportunities of 5 - year credit bonds [6][23]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights China's successful issuance of $4 billion in sovereign dollar bonds in Hong Kong, which saw a subscription rate exceeding 30 times, contrasting sharply with the U.S. Treasury's recent bond issuance that had a subscription rate of less than 2.5 times [1][3][9] - The issuance consisted of two tranches: $2 billion for 3 years and $2 billion for 5 years, indicating strong market demand for Chinese dollar bonds [3][5] - China's ability to issue dollar bonds is supported by its substantial foreign exchange reserves, which instill confidence in international investors regarding China's debt repayment capabilities [5][11] Group 2 - The high demand for Chinese dollar bonds suggests that investors perceive these bonds as having good liquidity, making them more attractive compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, which are currently facing liquidity concerns [5][7] - The recent trend shows a shift in international capital flows, with funds moving towards Chinese dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries, indicating a competitive relationship between the two [7][11] - The contrasting subscription rates between Chinese and U.S. bonds reflect a broader trend of declining confidence in U.S. dollar assets, as many central banks and large investors are diversifying their portfolios away from U.S. Treasuries [9][11]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the credit spread compression is entering its second half, with expectations of further declines in the bond market during November and December due to central bank actions and reduced government bond supply [5][8]. - The credit market has shown limited room for further gains, particularly for short to medium-term credit bonds, as many have approached or breached previous lows [2][13]. - The behavior of institutional investors is constrained by upcoming regulatory changes and valuation adjustments, leading to limited incremental funds for credit bonds [3][14]. Credit Market Performance - In October, the bond market experienced fluctuations, with credit spreads narrowing as the 10-year government bond yield decreased from 1.788% to 1.741% by the end of the month [1][8]. - The narrowing of credit spreads was more pronounced in medium to long-term credit bonds compared to short-term ones, indicating a preference for longer durations [1][8]. - The report highlights that the valuation of credit bonds, particularly those rated AAA and AA+, has limited downward space, with most nearing previous lows [2][13]. Institutional Behavior - The anticipated reform of fund fee structures has led to a significant reduction in bond fund volumes, with a cautious approach expected from funds until the formal guidelines are released [3][14]. - Wealth management products are expected to maintain stable incremental funds, but their allocation to bonds may remain conservative due to valuation adjustments required by year-end [3][14]. - The recent performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF has shown limited growth, indicating a lack of substantial incremental demand in the credit market [3][14]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, credit spreads tend to fluctuate towards the end of the year, with limited independent trends observed in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - The report notes that while the credit market may not perform poorly at year-end, it often lags behind interest rate movements, with institutions prioritizing government bonds [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the credit spread compression is likely to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities within the credit market as incremental funds remain limited [5][8]. - For investors seeking excess returns, the report recommends exploring lower-rated bonds in the 4-5 year range or focusing on longer-duration bonds with stable liquidity [5][8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment journey of many investors starting with index funds and emphasizes the importance of learning investment techniques to achieve good returns [2] - A free course is offered to teach investment strategies for index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The article explains the concept of negative correlation between stocks and bonds, defining it as a situation where the price movement of one asset inversely affects the other [7] - It highlights that while stocks and bonds typically exhibit a slight negative correlation, this relationship becomes more pronounced during extreme market conditions, such as a bull market for stocks and a bear market for bonds from 2020 to 2021 [8] - A practical approach to utilizing this negative correlation is suggested, which involves allocating investments between stocks and bonds and periodically rebalancing the portfolio based on market conditions [9]

Group 1 - A significant wave of U.S. Treasury bond issuance is set to impact the market next week, with the Treasury planning to auction a total of $125 billion in various maturities [2][3] - The upcoming bond supply coincides with a critical liquidity indicator in the U.S. money market, which is already under pressure due to the government shutdown that has led to a significant cash hoarding by the Treasury [2][4] - The Treasury aims to refinance maturing debt and raise approximately $26.8 billion in new funds from private investors through this issuance [3] Group 2 - The bond auctions will occur in a compressed trading week due to the Veterans Day holiday, raising concerns about market liquidity [3][10] - Recent financial indicators have shown a severe liquidity crisis in the U.S. financial system, with key metrics signaling a tightening environment [4][5] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has surged over $700 billion in the past three months, contributing to the liquidity strain, as it has increased from around $300 billion to over $1 trillion since July [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of U.S. Treasury bond issuance is set to impact the market, coinciding with a decline in tech giants' market value and concerns over high valuations, weak economic signals, and declining consumer confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Upcoming Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in various maturities next week, alongside an expected $40 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds [1][2]. - The issuance will occur in a compressed trading week due to the Veterans Day holiday, which will close the bond market on Tuesday [2]. - The Treasury aims to refinance maturing debt and raise approximately $26.8 billion in new funds from private investors [3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Concerns - The upcoming bond issuance is particularly concerning given the already fragile liquidity environment in the U.S. financial system [7][8]. - Key liquidity indicators have shown signs of distress, indicating a growing liquidity crisis [8]. - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) surged by 22 basis points on October 31, marking the widest spread with the Federal Reserve's excess reserves rate since March 2020 [9]. Group 3: Causes of Liquidity Tightness - The root cause of the liquidity strain is the significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which has risen from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion since July due to cash withdrawals from the market [11]. - This liquidity withdrawal has led to the lowest level of bank reserves since early 2021 and a sharp decline in cash assets held by foreign commercial banks [13]. - Analysts suggest that the scale of liquidity withdrawal has a tightening effect comparable to multiple interest rate hikes [13]. Group 4: Potential Risks - Experts warn that the deterioration of funding conditions could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of liquidity issues, potentially triggering a chain reaction similar to the 2019 repo crisis if key indicators continue to worsen [14].

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds over the years, moving from a peak of $1.3167 trillion in 2013 to approximately $730.7 billion by mid-2025, reflecting a strategic shift to diversify its foreign reserves and mitigate risks associated with US monetary policy and global trade tensions [2][4][15]. Group 1: Reduction Timeline - In 2018, China began selling US Treasuries, reducing its holdings by about $50 billion as US interest rates rose [2]. - By 2019, amid escalating trade disputes, China sold over $100 billion, bringing its holdings down to $1.06 trillion [4]. - In 2020, China further reduced its holdings by $80 billion, stabilizing at $1.05 trillion [4]. - The trend continued in 2021 with a reduction of $120 billion, dropping below the $1 trillion mark [4]. - In 2022, China sold $150 billion, resulting in a total holding of $850 billion [4]. - By 2023, the pace of selling accelerated, with a total reduction to $800 billion [6]. - As of 2025, cumulative reductions exceeded $500 billion, with holdings at their lowest since 2009 [6][15]. Group 2: Reasons for Reduction - The primary driver for the reduction has been the increase in US interest rates, which has led to lower bond prices and higher holding costs for investors [8]. - The appreciation of the US dollar has introduced additional exchange rate risks, prompting China to seek diversification [8]. - Global trade protectionism and unilateral actions by the US have further motivated China to reduce its reliance on US assets [8][15]. Group 3: Reallocation of Funds - Proceeds from the sale of US Treasuries have been redirected towards diversifying foreign reserves, including increased investments in gold, euros, and yen [10][11][17]. - By mid-2025, China's gold reserves reached approximately 2,298.53 tons, reflecting a strategic pivot towards more stable assets [10][11]. - The overall foreign reserve balance remained stable at around $3.3 trillion, despite fluctuations in specific asset classes [8]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The shift towards gold and other currencies is aimed at enhancing China's financial security and reducing vulnerability to US monetary policy fluctuations [15]. - China's strategy aligns with a broader trend of de-dollarization, as it seeks to strengthen its international financial standing and reduce dependence on the US dollar [15][17]. - The diversification of reserves is expected to bolster China's economic resilience and enhance its role in global finance [13][17].

每经AI快讯，周五（11月7日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率涨3.2个基点，报4.466%，本周累计上 涨5.6个基点。两年期英债收益率涨1.2个基点，报3.798%，本周累涨2.7个基点。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - European bond yields are experiencing an upward trend, with notable increases in various countries' long-term bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards higher interest rates [1] Summary by Category France - The yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points to 3.460%, with a cumulative increase of 3.9 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year French bond yield increased by 3.3 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 5.0 basis points over the same period [1] Italy - Italy's 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.6 basis points to 3.429%, with a weekly rise of 4.5 basis points [1] Spain - Spain's 10-year government bond yield rose by 1.4 basis points to 3.181%, accumulating a weekly increase of 3.8 basis points [1] Greece - Greece's 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 3.304%, with a weekly rise of 4.4 basis points [1]