Group 1 - The market showed mixed fluctuations in the early session, with sectors like petrochemicals and banks being locally active, driving the value style upward [1] - As of the midday close, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.4%, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 0.04%, and the Guozheng Growth 100 Index fell by 1.3% [1] - Related products saw increased capital inflow, with the Value ETF (159263) recording a net subscription of nearly 100 million units in half a day [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [1] - The Value ETF (159263) tracks this index, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on value style investments [1]

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 15, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC No.: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows overall decline in production heat, marginal drop in property transactions, general downward trend in prices, and significant fall of the Baltic Dry Index. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][34] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.72 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 1.53 pct, and rebar output decreased by 10.53 tons. Inventory decreased by 1.88 tons [10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Operating rate decreased by 0.1 pct and remained at a low level [10] - Chemicals: PX and PTA operating rates remained flat [10] - Automobile Tires: All - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.57 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.65 pct [11] Demand - Real Estate: Property transaction area declined, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area continued to fall from a high level, and residential land transaction premium rate decreased [16] - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 720 million yuan compared to the previous week [16] - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 83,000 units, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 143,000 units [20] - Shipping Freight Rates: SCFI index increased by 7.79%, CCFI index increased by 0.29%, and BDI index dropped significantly by 19.14% [22] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price dropped by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, and coking coal futures price fell by 11.72% to 1,028.5 yuan per ton [24] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.96%, - 0.88%, and + 1.31% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price fell by 2.97% [25] - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.96%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.02%, + 0.67%, + 0.34%, and + 2.02% respectively compared to the previous week [27] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai [30] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decreased [32] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [32] Summary - Overall production heat declined, and commodity prices fell. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [34]

摘要：【图】2025年8月山东省燃料油产量数据 2025年1-8月燃料油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，山东省规模以上工业企业燃料油产量累计达到了1093.4万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了8.8%，增速较2024年同期高14.7个百分点，增速较同期全国高 12.1个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业燃料油产量2837.1万吨的比重为38.5%。 图表：山东省燃料油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年8月燃料油产量分析： 单独看2025年8月份，山东省规模以上工业企业燃料油产量达到了123.3万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，8月份的产量下降了1.9%，增速较2024年同期高8.9个百分点，增速较同期全国高4.6个百分点，约 占同期全国规模以上企业燃料油产量343.7万吨的比重为35.9%。 图表：山东省燃料油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分析汽油市场 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish investment view on LPG, indicating that the current market news is generally "bullish for中下游 PP and propylene, and bearish for upstream crude oil and LPG." The crude oil fundamentals remain loosely and weakly, and the near - term LPG prices are expected to continue the high - level decline trend [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence in domestic and international trends, with an overall supply - demand imbalance in the domestic market. The supply has increased due to the production increase of some refineries in South and East China last week. Although the winter heating demand is gradually improving, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the downstream olefin demand is sluggish. The inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to decline [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The LPG futures main contract trended downward, with a fluctuation range of 4,180 - 4,330 yuan/ton. The international LPG price was still strong, but the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the propylene futures price was weak. The domestic PDH plant profit continued to lose money, and the market supply exceeded demand. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 195 yuan/ton, in South China was 200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 180 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.29 million tons, including 21.87 million tons of civil gas, 19.35 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.12 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was 283.44 million tons. Some refineries in South and East China increased production last week, so the supply increased. There is no news of refinery start - up or shutdown this week, but there are both some plant shutdowns and start - ups, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to change little [5]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand is gradually coming, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, with a slow recovery in demand. However, the absolute value of the PN spread has narrowed, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the substitution effect is limited due to the weak downstream olefin demand. The domestic propylene market has a serious oversupply, and the high - load operation of PDH plants suppresses the procurement demand for raw material propane. The European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation plants are operating at a high start - up rate, and although the profit loss has increased with the rise of raw material prices, the rigid demand is relatively resilient [5]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 201.00 million tons, and the port inventory was 215.20 million tons. Affected by the short - term weakness of international crude oil, the prices in various regions rose first and then fell. Coupled with the supply increase in some regions, downstream buyers chose to wait and see, which led to an increase in factory inventory. At the port, the arrival of ships increased, and the inventory of some ships arriving at the end of last week was reflected this week, with sufficient imported resources. With the continuous arrival of ships, the port shipping volume increased, but the port still showed an inventory accumulation trend [5]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 195 yuan/ton in East China, 200 yuan/ton in South China, and 180 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume was 5,476 lots, an increase of 0 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was in Shandong [5][6]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were not fully filled in the data. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and Shandong alkylation were - 555 yuan/ton, - 172 yuan/ton, and - 484 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27, and the PG main - secondary monthly difference was - 1.13% (84 yuan/ton). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5]. 3.8 Other Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and slightly narrowed the supply surplus forecast. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November, and OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a special action to boost consumption. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts in the future has increased, with Morgan and Citi unanimously expecting another rate cut in January [5]. 3.9 Investment Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long PG and short SC, and long PP and short PG [5].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 原油 | | 过剩格局未变，油价反弹偏空。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押 一艘委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍 | | | 谨慎看空 | 在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均 | | ★ | | 累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄 | | | | 乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | | | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上升。 | | ★ | | | | | | 装置维持高开工，短线超跌反弹。国内开工季节性回升，LL 加权毛利压缩 | | L | | 至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度相对较 | | | 空头盘整 | 高，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步 ...

"910/920单元负荷低，每多开一分钟都是价值漏损!"日前，在凌晨3点的中控室内，芳烃厂加氢裂化联合 装置生产副主任韦桃平凝视着屏幕上闪烁的红色警报，陷入沉思。 科学决策斩"病灶" 精准施策挖"潜力" 党建引领筑"堡垒" 近日，扬子石化公司的"精细从严管控燃动费用降本增效项目"获得2025年度第二批次"创效先锋"称号。 今年3月，芳烃市场持续低迷，扬子石化结合市场需求和生产计划，分步实施芳烃厂1号和2号重整装置 停车检修。自检修以来，不仅使下游加氢裂化装置原料减少，而且物料平衡波动也给装置运行带来挑 战：装置能耗攀升、操作难度陡增、产品增效受阻。 面对这些难题，扬子石化芳烃厂以加氢裂化联合装置攻坚为抓手，创新生产管理思路，打出一系列优化 操作组合拳，持续向内挖潜，降低了装置的能耗和物耗，累计节约燃动费用近200万元，有效降低了生 产成本，实现了环保和经济效益"双赢"。 科学决策：停运单元斩"病灶" 每一项措施的落地都历经考验，比如尾油掺炼比例分毫之差便可能影响产品质量与装置稳定。"那段时 间，我们每天都守在装置前，每个数据波动都揪着心，总算啃下了这块硬骨头。"装置主任徐杰回忆 道。 一系列措施实施后，1号加 ...

为确保碳资源稳定供应，中韩石化持续优化管网运行，通过每日巡检、及时维护管道保温与支架等措 施，将月输送能力提升至7000吨，管网负荷率长期保持在90%以上。企业间建立了紧密的协作机制，在 气源供应、销售渠道等方面形成闭环，实现了经济与环保效益的"双赢"。 中韩石化环氧芳烃部环氧乙烷/乙二醇(EO/EG)装置将再生塔顶气中富含的CO2进行回收提纯，通过专用 管道输送至园区企业博达鸿泰环保科技有限公司，作为食品级CO原料。 中化新网讯截至12月10日，中韩石化实现环氧芳烃装置再生塔顶气二氧化碳(CO)的高效回收与再利 用，今年累计向下游企业输送CO突破7万吨，减排成效显著。 ...

12月15日消息，从中国石化获悉，中国石化12月11日至12日在广东湛江举办上市25周年投资者反向路演 活动。在交流环节，中国石化董事会秘书、副总裁黄文生回顾了公司上市25年来取得的发展成果，对未 来发展方向进行了展望。来自经济技术研究院和北京化工研究院的高级专家分别介绍石化行业展望和技 术发展趋势，茂名石化和中科炼化主要负责人介绍企业发展特色和未来发展目标。 来自新华资产、嘉实基金、Aberdeen公司、美国银行、摩根士丹利、中金公司、长江证券等境内外近70 名投资者、分析师参与交流，并现场参观茂名石化和中科炼化。 中国石化方面表示，今年是中国石化上市25周年，也是公司市值管理制度制定并实施的第一年。组织反 向路演旨在促进资本市场对公司全方位的了解，增进市场认同，积极听取投资者的有益建议，进一步提 高上市公司质量。（刘丽丽） 责任编辑：江钰涵 12月15日消息，从中国石化获悉，中国石化12月11日至12日在广东湛江举办上市25周年投资者反向路演 活动。在交流环节，中国石化董事会秘书、副总裁黄文生回顾了公司上市25年来取得的发展成果，对未 来发展方向进行了展望。来自经济技术研究院和北京化工研究院的高级专家分别 ...

中韩石化环氧芳烃部环氧乙烷/乙二醇(EO/EG)装置将再生塔顶气中富含的CO2进行回收提纯，通过专用 管道输送至园区企业博达鸿泰环保科技有限公司，作为食品级CO₂原料。 中化新网讯 截至12月10日，中韩石化实现环氧芳烃装置再生塔顶气二氧化碳(CO₂)的高效回收与再利 用，今年累计向下游企业输送CO₂突破7万吨，减排成效显著。 为确保碳资源稳定供应，中韩石化持续优化管网运行，通过每日巡检、及时维护管道保温与支架等措 施，将月输送能力提升至7000吨，管网负荷率长期保持在90%以上。企业间建立了紧密的协作机制，在 气源供应、销售渠道等方面形成闭环，实现了经济与环保效益的"双赢"。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The demand for PX is seasonally weakening, but the supply remains tight, and it is in a high - level volatile market; PTA is also in a high - level volatile market; for MEG, the unplanned load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below [1]. - For PX, the demand is comprehensively weakening, and one should be vigilant against the negative feedback caused by the unexpected decline in polyester operation rate, and avoid chasing high prices. For PTA, although the cost - end PX supply is tight, the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space of PTA is limited. For MEG, the price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, so do not chase short positions in the 01 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Dynamics - Asian xylene prices declined, with Platts assessing Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB Korea at 830.67 dollars/ton and 809.67 dollars/ton respectively on December 12, both down 5 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [4]. - South Korean PX exports to the US increased significantly in early December, and more shipments are expected in the coming months, which may push up prices and tighten the regional supply. About 45,000 tons of PX cargo was loaded to the US in early December, while there was no PX export to the US in November, and the export from January to October was 154,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [6]. - South Korea's GS Caltex shut down its No. 3 xylene series with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons on December 8 due to poor economic performance, and the restart date is undetermined [6]. Futures and Spot Prices | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6758 | 4674 | 3627 | 6074 | 437.6 | | Change | - 58 | 10 | 28 | - 48 | - 2.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.78% | - 0.78% | - 0.48% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 58 | - 60 | - 84 | - 54 | - 0.4 | | Month Spread (Change) | 4 | - 2 | 24 | 16 | 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 830.67 dollars/ton | 4610 yuan/ton | 3602 yuan/ton | 548.75 dollars/ton | 62.09 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5 dollars/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | - 5.5 dollars/ton | 0.1 dollars/barrel | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 281.42 dollars/ton | 185.2 yuan/ton | 256.44 yuan/ton | 123.25 yuan/ton | - 4.23 dollars/ton | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 9.25 dollars/ton | 15.86 yuan/ton | - 14.97 yuan/ton | 6.95 yuan/ton | 0.11 dollars/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The demand is comprehensively weakening. The polyester industry chain profits continue to concentrate on the PX link, but the weakening demand limits the upside space. The blending - into - gasoline logic has ended. The domestic operation rate is 88.1% (- 0.1%), with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian operation rate is 79.3% (+ 0.6%). The PXN is 282 dollars/ton and continues to expand. Operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [7]. - **PTA**: The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space is limited. The PTA capacity is generally in excess, and the processing fee is continuously compressed. Exit the profit of the 01 contract processing fee compression position. Operate the single - side position in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [8]. - **MEG**: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and some factories have shut down due to business reasons. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved. Do not chase short positions in the 01 contract. The low profit has led to a large - scale decline in the operation enthusiasm of facilities. The ethylene - based facilities, such as Sanjiang, have reduced the load, and some facilities are shut down. The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet has slightly improved [8].