震荡轮动继续，等待破局信号 20251119 摘要 当前市场进入景气验证阶段，上涨速度放缓，呈现震荡上行和行业轮动 特征，与价值重估和资金流入阶段相比，市场节奏明显不同。 国内外市场均面临挑战：国际上，英伟达财报及美联储降息预期不明朗； 国内方面，10 月社零和固投数据疲软，经济动能减弱，短期刺激政策预 期降低。 A 股市场进入新的横盘震荡阶段，年末机构资金止盈压力与基本面支撑 不足形成对峙，资金分流至新能源和锂电池等板块，热点分散导致指数 震荡。 长期来看，资本市场改革、结构性景气支撑、宏观流动性宽松及增量资 金流入等因素支持 A 股慢牛逻辑，但短期内缺乏共识和热点分散导致指 数震荡。 A 股已回踩 60 日均线，但成交额仍然偏高，需进一步萎缩至 1.6 万亿元 甚至更低，海外市场需关注美联储降息预期和英伟达财报。 短期投资策略建议攻守兼备，关注年底大盘价值风格（石油石化、钢铁、 煤炭、银行、非银金融、农林牧渔），以及涨价逻辑驱动的锂电材料和 化工新材料。 年底主题投资方向包括地域性主题（福建、海南）、生肖概念、中日博 弈（水产、船舶军工、关键资源、半导体材料），以及地缘政治风险下 的黄金避险。 Q&A 近 ...

高盛闭门会-首席策略师用长期视角看 ai 和美股，泡沫早期 但还没破多元化的必要性 20251119 摘要 科技行业利润增长长期超越其他行业，这一趋势自金融危机后已持续 15 年，但当前科技股虽表现出色，整体行业估值仍未达历史泡沫水平。 美国股市估值偏高，未来十年预期回报较低；欧洲股市估值相对较低， 且存在结构性改革机会，增长潜力较大，多元化发展及资本支出增加也 将促进发展。 全球股票未来 10 年总回报预期为年化 7.7%（美元计），低于过去 10- 15 年水平。美国预期年化本地回报为 6.5%，欧洲约为 7%，亚洲约为 10%，新兴市场约为 11%。 对亚洲和中国 GDP 预测进行了上调，表明对该地区持乐观态度。中国加 大对出口驱动型模式的投入，并大幅增加产能，或将加剧欧洲制造业领 域的竞争。 欧洲市场过去十年呈现资金净流出趋势，但 2025 年初出现变化，美元 下跌、德国放松财政约束提振信心，外国投资者大量流入，本地资金回 流。 Q&A 在您最近发布的公司显微镜报告中，哪些图表对欧洲投资者关系人员来说最重 要和相关？ 在我们每季度发布的宏观范围报告中，有几个图表对欧洲投资者关系人员尤为 重要。首先，图 ...

高盛闭门会-脉动中国-详解 10 月经济数据，五大投资主题 20251119 摘要 中国固定资产投资（FAI）数据下滑，部分原因是统计局主动挤出水分， 并不完全反映经济活动的减弱。水泥需求与官方数据对比显示过去存在 高报现象，需关注数据质量而非单纯增速。 10 月工业增加值低于预期，受季节性因素和出口相关电子产品拖累影响。 社会零售额增速小幅下降，双十一促销提前及去年高基数效应是主要原 因，预计 11 月增速可能持续疲软。 房地产市场面临挑战，新开工和竣工项目大幅收缩，二手房价格加速下 行。未来需适度宽松政策，如降低存量房贷利率、加快城中村改造等， 以缓解市场压力。 货币政策方面，央行更注重中长期调节而非短期刺激，关注银行净息差 问题。短期内大规模增量政策可能性较低，或在明年初进行政策宽松， 需关注 12 月中央经济工作会议。 央行管理利率差距，保持政策利率与市场利率稳定。人民币呈现缓步升 值趋势，央行推动人民币国际化和资本市场开放，外汇管理和汇率稳定 至关重要。 Q&A 近期中国的固定资产投资（FAI）数据表现如何？其背后的原因是什么？ 近期中国的固定资产投资（FAI）数据表现不佳，连续三四个月低于市场预期 ...

截至2025年11月20日 09:39，中证国有企业红利指数上涨0.19%，成分股厦门国贸上涨6.85%，中国银行上涨2.50%，建发股份上涨2.03%，西部矿业上涨 1.76%，厦门象屿上涨1.54%。国企红利ETF(159515)上涨0.08%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金未 来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。） 消息面上，随着国企改革持续推进，央国企经营考核指标体系不断优化，引导央国企的经营效率和现金流改善，央企的分红意愿和能力均较强，未来有望迎 来估值重塑。有机构表示，红利指数主要筛选出持续分红、股息率高、能长期稳定分红的企业，通常具有现金流充沛、盈利成熟、抗周期能力强等特征。随 着全球低利率常态化，红利资产的分红属性有望吸引更多资金入场。 华鑫证券指出，在缩表周期下，股债性价比偏向权益的幅度有限，风格上价值相对占优的概率更高。红利类股票大体上应具备以下三个特征：不扩表，盈利 好，活下来。红利行业具有稳定分红特征，且当前估值相对历史偏低，符合配置策略中追求确定性收益的要求。大规模化债进一步降 ...

1.公告基本信息 ■ 2.与分红相关的其他信息 ■ （4）权益登记日当天，注册登记人不接受投资者申请办理转托管、非交易过户等特殊业务。 （5）根据《光大保德信安和债券型证券投资基金基金合同》的规定，红利分配时所发生的银行转账或 其他手续费用由投资者自行承担，若红利分配金额小于银行转账或其他手续费用，则自动转为红利再投 资。因此，当投资者的红利分配金额小于最低现金红利发放限额10.00元（不含10.00元）时，注册登记 机构则将投资者的现金红利按2025年11月24日除权后的基金份额净值自动转为基金份额。 （6）光大保德信基金管理有限公司网站：www.epf.com.cn。 （7）光大保德信基金管理有限公司客户服务热线：4008-202-888。 （8）本基金代销机构 中国民生银行股份有限公司、交通银行股份有限公司、晋商银行股份有限公司、宁波银行股份有限公 司、平安银行股份有限公司、兴业银行股份有限公司、招商银行股份有限公司、中国光大银行股份有限 公司、中国建设银行股份有限公司、光大证券股份有限公司、国金证券股份有限公司、中信证券股份有 限公司、东方财富证券股份有限公司、国泰海通证券股份有限公司、国投证券股份有 ...

Core Points - The article clarifies that buying stocks on the record date guarantees eligibility for dividends, provided the shares are held until market close on that day [4] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the complete dividend process, which involves multiple key dates [4][9] Key Dates in Dividend Process - **Announcement Date**: This is when the company announces its intention to distribute dividends, detailing the proposed amount and timing [5] - **Record Date**: This date is crucial as it determines the list of shareholders eligible for dividends. Investors must hold shares until market close on this date [6] - **Ex-Dividend Date**: Typically the day after the record date, the stock price is adjusted downwards by the dividend amount, which can confuse new investors [7] - **Payment Date**: This is when the actual dividend payment is made to shareholders, usually within 1-3 trading days after the ex-dividend date [8] Understanding Dividend Impact - The article explains that dividends do not increase total asset value; they merely convert part of the stock's value into cash [9][10] - A detailed example illustrates that total asset value remains unchanged before and after the dividend payment, highlighting the nature of asset conversion rather than profit generation [10] Tax Implications - It is noted that dividends are subject to personal income tax, which can reduce the actual amount received by shareholders [11] - The tax rate varies based on the holding period, with longer holding periods resulting in lower tax rates [11] Investment Strategies - **Long-Term Investment**: Holding shares for over a year allows investors to receive full dividends and benefit from potential stock price appreciation [12] - **Avoiding Short-Term Buying**: Investors are advised against buying shares solely for dividends, as this can lead to losses due to taxes and stock price adjustments [12] - **Buying After Ex-Dividend Date**: This strategy allows investors to purchase shares at a lower price post-dividend, avoiding immediate tax implications [13] Summary of Key Rules - A mnemonic is provided to help new investors remember the essential rules regarding dividends, emphasizing the importance of understanding the process and avoiding impulsive buying [14]

【环球网财经综合报道】Wind数据显示，截至11月19日，今年以来A股公司重要股东合计增持超过100亿股，按照区间 交易均价计算，合计增持金额超930亿元，金额创近3年新高。 《金融时报》则发文称，近年来，外国投资者重新评估中国股市，购股力度达到四年来新高。今年1月至10月，流入 中国股票的离岸资金达5060亿美元，远超2024年的数额。这一趋势受益于中资股的强劲表现，包括人工智能的推动和 亚洲金融市场的上市热潮。 从行业看，13个行业年内增持金额超过30亿元，银行、基础化工、公用事业等行业增持金额排在前列。从单家公司 看，今年以来增持金额超10亿元的公司有17家，6家公司增持金额超过25亿元，位居榜首的是南京银行。 《南华早报》发文称，摩根士丹利首席分析师劳拉·王等人在报告中表示，2025年中国公司利润预计增长6%，并建议 投资者关注具有创新能力和符合国家科技自立五年计划目标的科技股，以及能抵御市场波动的高股息股票。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the strategic framework for China's economic and social development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and efficient allocation of resources through financial services [1][4]. Group 1: Efficient Resource Allocation - Efficient allocation of resources relies on optimizing the combination of new and traditional factors, enhancing overall productivity, and requires both policy guidance and market participation [2]. - Financial systems play a crucial role in directing capital to specific sectors, alleviating resource misallocation, and supporting the integration of technology and industry [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Empowerment of Industry - The "Five Key Financial Articles" initiative aims to support industrial transformation and the development of new productive forces, with a strong focus on technology finance [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide targeted support to key sectors, such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, through differentiated credit policies and innovative financial products [4][5]. Group 3: Green Finance and Inclusive Finance - The banking sector is innovating green finance products to support low-carbon transitions and the development of green industries, with a focus on creating a multi-level green finance service system [6]. - Inclusive finance initiatives are being developed to meet the diverse financial needs of small technology enterprises and support elderly care services [6]. Group 4: Integration of Finance and Real Economy - Deep integration of finance with various economic scenarios is essential for building a unified national market, enhancing resource allocation efficiency, and promoting consumption [7][8]. - The establishment of a convenient payment system and customized financial solutions for industries is being prioritized to facilitate the flow of information, logistics, and capital [8]. Group 5: Commitment to High-Quality Development - The company is committed to implementing the directives from the 20th Central Committee, focusing on high-quality development, efficient resource allocation, and supporting the construction of a unified national market [9].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuzhou, Hunan, is a significant industrial city in China, known for its comprehensive industrial sectors and numerous achievements, with Jin Xin Group being a key player supported by Postal Savings Bank of China in its growth journey [1] Group 1: Company Growth and Development - Jin Xin Group, founded in 2009 by Shen Jinkui, has evolved from a single trade entity into a diversified industrial cluster encompassing hard alloys, new energy, and precision molds, exporting to over 50 countries [1] - The company faced challenges in scaling operations, particularly in 2018 when it experienced a surge in orders but lacked working capital, which was addressed by a timely loan of 570,000 yuan from Postal Savings Bank [2] - In 2019, Jin Xin Group aimed to transition from extensive to refined production, necessitating the purchase of facilities and advanced equipment, leading to a mortgage loan of over 5.8 million yuan from the bank [2] Group 2: Financial Support and Impact - In 2025, rising tungsten powder prices posed a significant challenge for Jin Xin Group, impacting cash flow and production capabilities [3] - Postal Savings Bank proactively provided customized financial services, granting a total credit of 700,000 yuan to Jin Xin Group and its subsidiaries, effectively addressing the liquidity gap [3] - The financial support included government interest subsidies amounting to 240,000 yuan over two years, significantly reducing financing costs and enabling the company to focus on production expansion [3] Group 3: Commitment to Local Economic Development - Postal Savings Bank has consistently adhered to its mission of serving the real economy, providing practical and efficient financial services to support local enterprises like Jin Xin Group [4] - The recent "dual credit + interest subsidy" service exemplifies the bank's ability to meet specific corporate needs and assist in overcoming financial challenges [4] - The bank plans to continue focusing on the industrial development needs of Zhuzhou, offering more precise credit solutions and efficient services to foster local economic growth [4]

Core Insights - Shandong Zibo Zhangdian Rural Commercial Bank has implemented initiatives like "thousand enterprises and ten thousand households visits" and "financial guidance" to focus on the needs of technology innovation enterprises [1][2] - The bank has successfully streamlined its loan approval process, exemplified by a five-day turnaround for technology patent pledge loans, addressing urgent funding needs for businesses [1][2] Group 1: Business Initiatives - The bank prioritizes support for clients with good operational performance and credit ratings, particularly those aligned with government subsidy policies and national industrial guidelines [1] - A specialized team has been established to enhance financial services, utilizing both online and offline channels to connect with clients and provide tailored product recommendations [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of now, the bank has supported 191 technology enterprises, an increase of 18 since the beginning of the year, with a total loan balance of 1.336 billion yuan, up by 217 million yuan [3] - The proportion of loans to technology enterprises has reached 7.99%, reflecting a 0.94 percentage point increase from the start of the year, demonstrating the bank's commitment to supporting innovation and economic development [3]