证券之星消息，10月21日非白酒板块较上一交易日下跌0.69%，燕京啤酒领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3916.33，上涨1.36%。深证成指报收于13077.32，上涨2.06%。非白酒板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600543 | 莫高股份 | 6.14 | 2.85% | 8.95万 | 5415.92万 | | 600616 | 金枫酒业 | 5.77 | 2.30% | 15.33万 | 8725.08万 | | 600084 | 中信尼雅 | 5.59 | 2.01% | 6.55万 | 3625.41万 | | 002568 | 百润股份 | 26.69 | 1.71% | 7.68万 | 2.02亿 | | 603779 | 威龙股份 | 7.11 | 1.57% | 6.45万 | 4548.66万 | | 000929 | *ST兰黄 | 8.19 | 0.61% | 2.21万 | 1804.64万 | | 600238 | *ST椰岛 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a 0.2 percentage point increase from 2024. The GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.8%, in line with market expectations, but down 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter [3][4] - The industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.2%, and up 1.3 percentage points from August. The cumulative growth rate for the first three quarters was 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year [3][4] - Fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 0.5% in the first three quarters, marking the first negative growth this year. Manufacturing investment was up 4%, while real estate investment plummeted by 13.9% [4][7] Industry Insights PCB Industry - Dazhu CNC, engaged in PCB laser processing equipment, reported a revenue of 3.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 142.2% to 492 million yuan. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan, up 95.19% [10] - The PCB industry is experiencing growth driven by AI computing power, leading to an increase in the market size and technical complexity of high-layer boards [10] Connector Industry - Dingtong Technology, a supplier of various high-speed connector products, achieved a revenue of 1.16 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 64.5% increase, with net profit rising by 125.4% to 176 million yuan. The third quarter revenue was 370 million yuan, up 48.1% [11] - The growth is attributed to the increase in communication connector business, with expectations for continued high growth due to the delivery cycle of liquid cooling equipment [11] Renewable Energy Sector - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax policy adjustment for offshore wind power, effective November 1, 2025, which will provide a 50% VAT refund for sales of electricity products generated from offshore wind. This policy aims to support the offshore wind sector while indicating that onshore wind technology is mature enough to stand without special tax support [13] - The policy is expected to have a structurally negative impact on the wind power industry, particularly for onshore wind, while benefiting offshore wind projects [13] Battery Industry - Rongbai Technology, specializing in lithium battery cathode materials, reported a revenue of 2.737 billion yuan for the third quarter, a 38.29% year-on-year decline, with a net loss of 135 million yuan. The decline is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties and increased market competition [14] - CATL, a leader in power and energy storage batteries, reported a revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a 12.90% increase, with net profit rising by 41.21% to 18.549 billion yuan. The growth is driven by scale expansion and improved financial performance [14] Beverage Industry - Yanjing Beer reported total revenue of 13.433 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 4.57% increase, with net profit rising by 37.45% to 1.77 billion yuan. The growth is primarily driven by the strong performance of its U8 product line [16] - The company benefited from lower raw material costs and improved production efficiency, leading to enhanced profit margins despite a generally weak market demand [16]

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年10月21日 U8延续增长，盈利能力提升 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:12.49元 主要数据 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.yanjing.com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 北京燕京啤酒投资有限公司/57.40% | | 实际控制人 | 北京市人民政府 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,819 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 2,510 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 352 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 313 | | 每股净资产(元) | 5.62 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.6 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 燕京啤酒(000729.SZ) 【平安证券】燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）*半年报点评 *2Q延续高增，产品结构升级*推荐20250811 【平安证券】燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）*年报点评*业 绩符合快报，U8势能充足*推荐20250422 证券分析师 事项： 燕京啤酒发布2025三季报，1-3Q25实现营收134亿元，同比+4.6%，归母净利 17.7亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 13.43 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.77 billion CNY, up 37.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company's U8 product line continues to show strong growth, with sales volume for Q3 slightly increasing to 1.1435 million kiloliters, driven by improved market conditions in September [9]. - Cost optimization has led to a decrease in unit costs by 2.8% to 2,125 CNY per kiloliter, contributing to a gross margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 50.2% [9]. - The report highlights that the company is on track to meet its annual sales target of 900,000 tons for the U8 product, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% as of September [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 14.667 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The net profit is expected to be 1.056 billion CNY, reflecting a significant growth rate of 63.7% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025E is 0.55 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 [5][9]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.55% and a net asset value per share of 5.62 CNY [6].

事件：公司发布2025 年三季度报告，25Q1-3 实现营业收入134.3 亿元，同比+4.6%，实现归母净利润 17.7 亿元，同比+37.4%，实现扣非归母净利润16.9 亿元，同比+33.6%。对应单25Q3 实现营业收入48.7 亿元，同比+1.5%，实现归母净利润6.7 亿元，同比+26.0%，实现扣非归母净利润6.5 亿元，同比 +24.6%。 盈利预测：我们预计公司25-27 年分别实现收入153.4/159.7/165.6 亿元，分别同比+4.6%/+4.1%/+3.7%， 分别实现归母净利润15.0/17.6/20.3 亿元，分别同比+42.0%/+17.6%/+14.9%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：消费环境承压，行业竞争加剧，U8增长不及预期。 销量基本持平，ASP 在结构升级带动下有所提升。25Q3 公司收入同比+1.5%，拆分量/价看，分别同比 +0.1%/+1.4%。我们预计，销量表现持平主要系25Q3外部消费环境表现较弱。预计ASP 提升主要系：大 单品U8 增长势能延续，带动产品结构升级。 25Q3 成本红利下，吨成本有所下降，叠加ASP 提升，毛利率提升。公司深化改革，持续 ...

Core Insights - Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 13.43 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.77 billion yuan, up 37.4% year-on-year [1] - The company has seen significant improvements in profit margins due to product structure upgrades and cost optimization [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 26% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 47.19%, and for Q3 it was 50.15%, both showing an increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters reached 15.32%, and for Q3 it was 16.17%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.53 and 2.79 percentage points respectively [1] Sales and Market Strategy - The company sold 3.4952 million kiloliters of beer in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with an average price of 3,843 yuan per kiloliter, up 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Yanjing Beer is expanding its market presence through initiatives like the "Hundred Cities Project," focusing on 16 high-tier cities to enhance product visibility [2] - The company is also embracing new retail channels, partnering with platforms like Yima and JD Wine World to penetrate non-base markets [2] Future Outlook - The company expects to continue benefiting from reform dividends, with plans to further develop its core product, Yanjing U8, and enhance its product matrix [2] - Cost management remains a focus, with expectations of low industry procurement costs in 2025, allowing for further cost and expense optimization [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 1.596 billion, 1.886 billion, and 2.178 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 7%, 5%, and 5% [3] - The price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 22x, 19x, and 16x for the respective years, indicating a positive outlook for sustained growth driven by the U8 product line [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 23rd China International Wine Expo was successfully held from October 17 to 19, showcasing a variety of Qingdao Beer products and new offerings, emphasizing a health-conscious approach to beer consumption [1] Product Highlights - Qingdao Beer introduced key products aligned with modern consumer trends, particularly highlighting "Qingdao Beer Light Dry," which focuses on low calories, low sugar, and high quality to cater to health-conscious consumers [2] - The "Qingdao Beer Light Dry" contains only 29 calories per 100ml and has a sugar content as low as 0.1g, promoting a lighter drinking experience [4] - The 0.0% alcohol white beer from Qingdao Beer won a gold medal at the 2025 Beer World Cup, utilizing advanced vacuum distillation technology to maintain the original flavor while reducing alcohol content to less than 0.05% [6] Awards and Recognition - Qingdao Beer showcased a full array of products at the expo, including award-winning items such as classic 1903, pure draft, white beer, and various high-end specialty beers, all of which have received gold medals in domestic and international competitions [10] Consumer Engagement - The expo featured interactive activities that combined "wine experience" with "fun interaction," enhancing audience participation and adding joy to consumers' quality of life [12]

2025 年 10 月 21 日 公司研究 Q3 量价增速有所放缓，利润率持续改善 ——燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 要点 事件：燕京啤酒 25 年前三季度实现营业收入 134.3 亿元，同比+4.6%；归母净 利润 17.7 亿元，同比+37.4%；扣非归母净利润 16.9 亿元，同比+33.6%。其中， 25Q3 实现营业收入 48.7 亿元，同比+1.5%；归母净利润 6.7 亿元，同比+26%； 扣非归母净利润 6.5 亿元，同比+24.6%。 结构升级叠加费用优化，利润率显著改善。1）25 年前三季度/25Q3 公司毛利率 分别为 47.19%/50.15%，同比+2.1/+2.16pcts，主要受益于以 U8 为代表的中高 档产品销量占比提升带来的产品结构优化，以及部分原材料成本红利释放。2） 25 年前三季度/25Q3 公司销售费用率分别为 11.59%/13.8%，同比-0.4/ -0.06pcts，主要系规模效应释放。3）25 年前三季度/25Q3 管理费用率分别为 10.24%/10.06%，同比-0.98/-0.85pcts。公司持续推进卓越管理体系建设，深 化改 ...

Macro Insights - Policy financial tools are being rapidly deployed, with Agricultural Development Bank and China Development Bank announcing a total of CNY 2,895 billion in funding as of October 17, which is expected to support short-term credit and infrastructure investment growth [2][4] - The third quarter GDP growth rate for China was reported at 4.8%, matching expectations but down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, while the industrial value-added growth for September was 6.5%, exceeding the forecast of 5% [5][11] Fixed Income - The construction and building materials sector is seeing a gradual improvement in funding, with infrastructure investment showing a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.1% for the first nine months of 2025, while real estate investment has decreased by 13.9% [10] - The establishment of a new debt management department by the Ministry of Finance indicates a shift towards a long-term debt management mechanism, moving away from emergency measures [6] Real Estate - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with a marginal improvement in construction and sales figures, although housing prices continue to face downward pressure [7][8] - Recommendations for real estate stocks focus on companies with strong credit ratings and resources in core cities, including China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [7] Power Equipment and New Energy - The release of the "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" at the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference sets a target for annual new wind power installations of no less than 120GW during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, reinforcing industry confidence [8] - The wind power industry is expected to enter a recovery phase, with recommendations for leading wind turbine manufacturers [8] Consumer Goods - The retail sales growth for September was reported at 3.0%, with expectations for continued moderate growth in October due to the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - Structural opportunities in consumer sectors such as emotional consumption and domestic brands are highlighted as areas for investment [9] Industrial and Machinery - The domestic multi-directional forging market is expanding, with sales expected to grow from USD 1.205 billion in 2024 to USD 1.576 billion by 2031, driven by demand in high-end manufacturing sectors [14] - Recommendations include companies that have achieved key technological breakthroughs and are expanding internationally, such as Diwei [14] Key Companies - China Life Insurance is expected to see a 50%-70% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong investment returns [19] - Sinomach Electric reported a 32.86% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in overseas orders [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.75 [1][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company has shown steady performance despite external pressures, with a focus on cost control and inventory management. The anticipated recovery in consumption and the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to enhance profit elasticity [7][10]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 13.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.77 billion, up 37.4% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of RMB 4.87 billion, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 670 million, up 26.0% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 47.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, with the third quarter gross margin reaching 50.2% [9]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company's beer sales volume increased by 1.4% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a slower growth rate in the third quarter due to external factors such as weather and consumption pressures. However, the U8 product line continued to grow healthily [8][9]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights that cost reductions and structural optimization have led to a continuous improvement in profit margins. The company has managed to reduce its sales and management expense ratios, contributing to a net profit margin of 13.2% for the first three quarters [9][10]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is RMB 0.56, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, which is higher than the average of comparable companies [10][12].