Group 1 - Emerging market carry trades are expected to continue thriving in 2026, supported by reduced forex market volatility and a weak US dollar [1] - A key indicator for this strategy has shown a return of approximately 17% this year, marking the highest increase since 2009 [1] - Major asset management firms and banks anticipate that the interest rate gap between developed and emerging markets will persist, with the Federal Reserve and other wealthy nations' central banks likely to maintain low borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have seen significant increases this year, with countries like Brazil and Colombia experiencing currency appreciation of over 13% against the US dollar [3] - The performance of these markets is closely tied to the US economic outlook, with investors hoping for weak growth to encourage further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] - Goldman Sachs has highlighted the attractiveness of shorting the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, with a basket of these trades yielding approximately 20% returns this year [3] Group 3 - Investors are assessing whether forex volatility will remain low, as adverse currency movements can quickly erase months of gains [6] - Current market expectations for volatility are low, with a JPMorgan indicator nearing a five-year low, raising concerns among market participants [6] - Despite potential factors that could increase currency volatility, such as US midterm elections and central bank policy divergences, Vanguard Group expects that market disruptions will remain controlled into 2026 [6]

近日举行的中央经济工作会议系统部署了2026年经济工作。多家公私募机构一致认为，政策取向从"以 进促稳"变为"提质增效"，表明宏观政策重心从"稳总量、保增速"转向"优结构、提效能"，推动我国经 济在稳扎稳打中实现高质量发展。"坚持内需主导"作为首要重点任务，为行业机构发展指明了方向，即 坚守金融为民，有效助力居民财富管理，为扩大内需贡献力量。 政策引领与产业周期的共振夯实了2026年资本市场稳步发展的基础。不少公私募机构表示，未来机构将 不断加强对新技术、新产业、新业态的研究广度和深度，完善对科技创新企业的识别筛选和估值定价方 法，精准引导资源活水浇灌国家战略新兴产业，把服务新质生产力的实际行动和为投资人创造更好的收 益结合起来。 明年经济工作兼顾短期稳定与长远发展 中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 敦和资产管理有限公司总经理张志洲在接受上证报记者采访时表示，此次会议恰逢"十四五"规划收官之 时，既考虑了2026年的短期经济社会发展，还统筹衔接了未来五年的中期发展。为实现下阶段发展目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry is entering a new era where redefining the risk and return structure is essential due to accelerated economic cycle changes, increased global uncertainty, and continuously declining domestic interest rates [1] Group 1: Multi-Asset Strategy Necessity - Multi-asset allocation has transitioned from an optional strategy to a necessary one for asset management institutions, driven by rising uncertainties in the global economic cycle and geopolitical environment [2] - The low correlation between different asset classes is crucial for effectively reducing portfolio volatility and enhancing investment stability, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The traditional fixed-income strategies are becoming less effective in providing stable returns, necessitating a balance between reducing volatility and enhancing returns through multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches [2] Group 2: Long-Term Value Creation - The banking wealth management sector serves as a vital support for residents' wealth growth, leveraging a "universal toolbox" of multi-assets and multi-strategies to provide comprehensive wealth management solutions [3] - Long-term capital management perspectives highlight the importance of multi-asset strategies, especially as the risk-free return rate trends downward and traditional credit guarantees are no longer reliable [3] Group 3: Evolving Investment Logic - There is a need to upgrade the investment logic from merely "allocating assets" to a combination of "allocating assets and strategies," particularly in the context of shrinking non-standard assets [4] - Active management strategies like "fixed income plus" are being utilized to fill the yield gap left by the contraction of non-standard assets, demonstrating the integration of multiple asset classes [4] Group 4: Systematic Investment Capability - Public funds are also pushing for the systematic and industrialized approach to multi-asset and multi-strategy investments to address the asset allocation challenges faced by investors in complex market environments [4] - The investment returns from multi-asset strategies are generally derived from the beta of selected assets, alpha generated from strategies, and configuration alpha from the combination of various assets and strategies [5] Group 5: Risk Management Challenges - Effective risk control management is critical in multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches, as the risk budget of individual assets and their correlations significantly impact the overall portfolio risk and return [6] - The challenges of balancing these factors require long-term data accumulation and analysis, with AI models potentially assisting in addressing these issues [6]

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management's latest report predicts structural opportunities for long-term economic growth and market returns due to positive fiscal policy shifts and advancements in AI technology [1][2] - The report forecasts a 7% annualized return for global equities over the next 10 to 15 years, supported by strong corporate earnings growth [1] - Emerging market equities are expected to yield an annualized return of 7.8%, driven by favorable valuations and increased focus on shareholder returns [1][2] Group 1: Global Market Outlook - The report covers over 200 asset classes and 20 currencies, aiming to provide professional investors with long-term return expectations [1] - Despite high current valuations, the solid earnings growth outlook supports the anticipated returns for global equities [1] - Bonds are expected to provide significant income due to high initial yields and act as a hedge during economic downturns [1] Group 2: Emerging Markets and Asia - Morgan Asset Management is optimistic about Asian equities, particularly due to their exposure to technology and AI developments [2] - Chinese A-shares are projected to have returns close to the overall emerging market level, benefiting from the broader market trends [2] - The report indicates a 20 basis point upward adjustment in the assumption for China's long-term total factor productivity growth to 1% due to faster-than-expected advancements in AI and high-tech sectors [2] Group 3: A-shares vs. H-shares - A-shares exhibit lower correlation with global markets compared to H-shares, potentially offering better risk diversification in global investment portfolios [3] - Potential new capital inflows into the A-share market may arise from maturing fixed deposits and improved policy environments attracting foreign investment [3]

作为知名外资私募锐联景淳海外母公司锐联的创始人，许仲翔博士在量化投资与资产配置领域一直扮演 着连接东西方市场的桥梁角色。从联合发明基本面量化策略(RAFI)，到带领锐联深耕中国市场，再到8 年前锐联向华夏基金等公募机构进行策略授权，这位兼具深厚学术背景与全球资产管理经验的学者型投 资人，其观点备受市场关注。近日，许仲翔接受了中国证券报记者的专访，围绕公司的策略实践、2026 年市场前瞻及行业变革等议题，发表了自己的看法。 多元资产策略获市场认可 回顾2025年，许仲翔将公司最大的突破归结于核心策略——量化多元资产配置策略获得了市场的理解与 接纳。"过去一两年，这类配置型产品因其复杂性，投资者接受需要一个过程。"许仲翔坦言，市场环境 的变化成为了理念普及的催化剂。利率持续低位徘徊、传统"刚兑"理财消失、股市起伏震荡，这些因素 让投资者意识到，没有任何单一资产品种能持续获得收益。 "当市场处于单边趋势时，大家会追逐简单的贝塔；当有保底产品时，保守者也无需他求。但现在，我 们进入了一个'真正的大资管时代'。"许仲翔说，市场的波动不断告诉投资者：因为难以精准预测每一 类资产的涨跌，因此必须接受"通过科学配置将不同资产 ...

回顾2025年，许仲翔将公司最大的突破归结于核心策略——量化多元资产配置策略获得了市场的理解与 接纳。"过去一两年，这类配置型产品因其复杂性，投资者接受需要一个过程。"许仲翔坦言，市场环境 的变化成为了理念普及的催化剂。利率持续低位徘徊、传统"刚兑"理财消失、股市起伏震荡，这些因素 让投资者意识到，没有任何单一资产品种能持续获得收益。 "当市场处于单边趋势时，大家会追逐简单的贝塔；当有保底产品时，保守者也无需他求。但现在，我 们进入了一个'真正的大资管时代'。"许仲翔说，市场的波动不断告诉投资者：因为难以精准预测每一 类资产的涨跌，因此必须接受"通过科学配置将不同资产打包，以降低整体风险"的逻辑。锐联的量化多 元资产配置策略，正是致力于在各种可能的宏观情境下，构建具备韧性的投资组合，控制回撤，实现风 险分散。 这一策略的价值在2025年得到充分验证。许仲翔介绍，此前该类产品的主要投资者多为机构直投客户， 将其作为组合压舱石。今年以来，越来越多的高净值个人客户开始接触并认可这一产品类型。"市场波 动反而让资产配置的价值凸显出来"。他透露，公司的相关产品线在经历三年多的投资者理念引导后， 目前已进入在渠道端积极铺 ...

从"可选项"到"必选项" 多资产多策略成资管行业共识 ■圆桌论坛 ◎记者 张欣然 稳定的收入预期是消费增长的基础，而银行理财行业正是居民财富稳健增值的重要支撑。在李永锋看 来，银行理财行业的核心优势在于具有多资产、多策略的"万能工具箱"，能够通过组合优化，为客户提 供完整的财富管理解决方案，本质上就是创造长期价值。 险资机构则从长期资金管理的角度解释多资产策略备受关注的原因。中再资产副总经理罗若宏在会上表 示：一方面，随着经济结构和发展阶段的变化，无风险收益率处在长期下行趋势中；另一方面，过去的 信用刚兑逻辑被打破，使得投资者只能通过承担更多的市场波动来获取更高的收益。多资产、多策略的 本质，是通过构建更加分散化的投资组合，在降低市场波动影响的基础上争取收益的提升。 在经济周期变化加速、全球不确定性显著上升以及国内利率持续下行的背景下，资产管理行业正面临重 新定义风险与收益结构的时代命题。 12月12日，在上海证券报与交通银行上海市分行联合主办、基煜基金全程协办的"上证·大虹桥金融高质 量发展大会"上，来自银行理财、险资机构、公募基金的多位嘉宾认为，单一资产难以满足当前市场环 境下的风险抵御能力与收益增长需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period will be crucial for repairing household balance sheets and embracing new wealth forms represented by AI assets [2][3]. Group 1: Household Balance Sheet Challenges - Over the past decade, Chinese household balance sheets have undergone significant structural changes due to three main shocks: declining risk-free interest rates, adjustments in the real estate market, and bottlenecks in traditional financial product supply [2]. - Approximately 70% of household assets are allocated in real estate, creating dual leverage between residents and developers, which pressures overall asset health [2]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Recent policies from the central government aim to repair household balance sheets, including innovative monetary tools from the central bank and fiscal measures like long-term bonds to alleviate local debt risks [3]. - These measures are designed to expand domestic demand and safeguard livelihoods, ultimately restoring the health of household balance sheets [3]. Group 3: Asset Management Industry Responsibilities - The asset management industry is tasked with providing resilient financial products that meet the new demands of the era, utilizing multi-asset and multi-strategy allocations to navigate market cycles [4]. - The focus will shift towards enhancing the health of household balance sheets, with an emphasis on increasing household income and releasing consumption potential as core economic drivers [4]. Group 4: Future Wealth Management Trends - The revitalization of existing real estate assets and the deepening of a multi-tiered pension system will be key areas of focus [4]. - The integration of AI into wealth management will create new asset classes, with personal behavior data potentially being valued and converted into data asset equity [5]. - Long-term funds, such as pensions, should actively invest in AI and other new productive assets, allowing residents to share in the benefits of long-term investments [5]. Group 5: Paradigm Shift in Wealth Growth Logic - The logic of wealth growth will transition from relying on single asset appreciation to focusing on the overall health and dynamic optimization of balance sheets, as well as recognizing and allocating towards cutting-edge assets [5]. - This shift necessitates a change in personal investment philosophies and the provision of forward-looking solutions by the asset management industry to adapt to a profound transformation in wealth management paradigms [5].

继续流入中国市场 ◎记者 王彭 摩根资产管理盛楠： 多重积极因素吸引外资 关于A股与港股，盛楠分析称：港股与全球市场（尤其是美股）相关性高，若担忧美股波动，港股波动 也会加大；A股则与全球市场相关性相对较低，下行风险与波动率可能更小，在全球投资组合中能起到 更好的风险分散作用。 展望A股市场潜在增量资金来源，盛楠认为可能来自两方面：一是随着定期存款到期，部分资金可能直 接或间接流入资本市场；二是随着政策环境改善，可能吸引更多外资关注并流入A股。 近日，摩根资产管理发布了最新一期《长期资本市场假设》。这份覆盖全球200多个资产类别、20种货 币的报告，旨在为专业投资者预测未来10年至15年大类资产的回报、相关性及波动性。 摩根资产管理多资产解决方案全球策略师盛楠在接受上证报记者采访时表示，尽管面临挑战，但全球财 政政策的积极转向与以AI为代表的科技革命，正为长期经济增长与市场回报带来结构性机会。此外， 得益于中国在AI等高科技领域的投资与发展速度超出预期，外资有望继续流入中国市场。 面对近期市场对AI"泡沫"的担忧，盛楠表示，报告是从超长期（10至15年）视角看待科技发展的。长期 来看，AI等技术将切实提升全要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transition phase for wealth management in China, shifting from reliance on single asset appreciation to a focus on overall health and dynamic optimization of asset-liability balance, alongside recognition and allocation of frontier assets [1][6] Group 1: Changes in Household Asset-Liability Structure - Over the past decade, Chinese households have faced "threefold shocks" impacting their asset-liability balance: declining risk-free interest rates, adjustments in the real estate market, and bottlenecks in traditional financial product supply [3][4] - Approximately 70% of household assets are allocated in real estate, creating dual leverage risks for both residents and developers [3] Group 2: Policy Responses and Asset Management Industry Responsibilities - Recent policies from the central government aim to repair household asset-liability balances, with measures including innovative monetary tools and fiscal strategies to alleviate local debt risks and enhance household income [4] - The asset management industry is urged to enhance its professional capabilities to provide resilient financial products that meet the evolving needs of residents [4][6] Group 3: Future Directions and Innovations - The focus on household asset-liability health will drive economic growth, with real estate asset revitalization and the development of a multi-tiered pension system as key areas of focus [5] - The emergence of AI as a new asset class is highlighted, with personal data potentially being valued and converted into data asset equity, allowing individuals to share in the growth of related technology companies [5][6] - Long-term funds, such as pensions, should actively invest in AI and other new productive assets to enable residents to benefit from long-term investments [6]