本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 新年伊始，万象更新。年前的首席视点指出年后的首席视点将会侧重术与器。也就是说，元旦新年之 后，我们将会从过去一个半月的"坐而论道"转向"起而行之"。其中隐含的意思是，再继续等待就有些靡 费时日了。通过之前的首席视点，我们对2026年资产配置的框架、逻辑和标的进行了详尽的分析，但这 只解决了趋势和结构的问题，择时的问题仍然需要相机而动。不仅如此，所有的策略都是预测，都需要 根据市场的变化进行完善和调整。这就意味着即使是坚定的价值投资者也需要考虑市场的波动，不仅如 此，在资产管理进入工业化与智能化时代，投资者的需求已经从单一资产加杠杆、一味追求收益，向多 元资产体系下的风险与收益平衡转变了。我们的首席视点认为短期重于长期，实际上是将趋势、结构与 节奏融合的判断逻辑。 一年之计在于春，历史的走势表明年初的投资布局对于全年来讲具有明显的指向作用。比如2025年第一 期首席视点我们认为需要"走出蘅皋"，指出配置思维要从低风险资产舒适区转向拥抱产业变革机遇。但 这并不是完全对应的，2020年以来，年初资产走势对全年配置具有中等强度的正相关指向，但需结合黑 天鹅、政策转向、流动性反 ...

Group 1: Trade Surplus Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion, marking the first time any country has surpassed the $1 trillion mark in trade surplus [2] - The strong export performance is driven by key categories such as electromechanical products, which account for approximately 59% of total exports, and new growth areas like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which continue to see double-digit growth [3][4] - The import demand in 2025 is weak, with nearly zero growth (0.2%), contributing to the maximum trade surplus [4] Group 2: Factors Affecting Perception of Surplus - The perception of the surplus not translating into noticeable benefits for the public can be attributed to several factors, including the "external circulation" of funds where companies are hesitant to convert foreign earnings into RMB [5] - A portion of profits is used to pay off debts rather than being reinvested domestically, indicating a deleveraging trend in the manufacturing sector [5] - Price wars in certain industries lead to profit dilution, making it difficult for companies to significantly increase employee wages despite high export volumes [5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is highlighted as a profitable area, with a mid-range electric vehicle sold in Europe generating significant revenue for Chinese manufacturers, despite various costs such as tariffs and logistics [5] - The future potential for higher-value exports, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, could lead to more substantial profits for Chinese companies [6] Group 4: Service Trade Developments - China's service trade has historically shown a significant deficit, but in 2025, the deficit narrowed to approximately $108 billion, a reduction of about 26% year-on-year [12][13] - Knowledge-intensive service trade constitutes about 38% of the total, with rapid growth in exports driven by international travel demand and foreign tourists visiting China [13] - The overall trend suggests that service trade may move towards a more balanced state in the future [14] Group 5: Economic Implications - The $1 trillion trade surplus reflects the efficiency of the production system and external structures rather than a direct increase in household income [15] - A portion of the foreign exchange earnings is allocated for stabilizing the currency, addressing external sanctions, and supporting essential imports, which delays immediate benefits to the domestic economy [15]

最低只需1年社保或个税缴纳，北京重磅出手！ 据北京市住房和城乡建设委员会消息，12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委等4部门联合印发《关于进一 步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，《通知》明确为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性 住房需求，进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商 品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2 年"调减为"1年"。二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商 品住房，即：京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多 子女家庭，可在五环内购买2套商品住房。通知自2025年12月24日起施行。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》全文发布。《建议》中 关于房地产部分提到加快构建房地产发展新模式、优化保障性住房供给、因城施策增加改善性住房供 给、建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度等内容，同时在消费部分提出要"清理汽车、住房等消费不合理 限制性措施"。 58安居客研究院院长张波认为，当下国内居民住 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transition phase for wealth management in China, shifting from reliance on single asset appreciation to a focus on overall health and dynamic optimization of asset-liability balance, alongside recognition and allocation of frontier assets [1][6] Group 1: Changes in Household Asset-Liability Structure - Over the past decade, Chinese households have faced "threefold shocks" impacting their asset-liability balance: declining risk-free interest rates, adjustments in the real estate market, and bottlenecks in traditional financial product supply [3][4] - Approximately 70% of household assets are allocated in real estate, creating dual leverage risks for both residents and developers [3] Group 2: Policy Responses and Asset Management Industry Responsibilities - Recent policies from the central government aim to repair household asset-liability balances, with measures including innovative monetary tools and fiscal strategies to alleviate local debt risks and enhance household income [4] - The asset management industry is urged to enhance its professional capabilities to provide resilient financial products that meet the evolving needs of residents [4][6] Group 3: Future Directions and Innovations - The focus on household asset-liability health will drive economic growth, with real estate asset revitalization and the development of a multi-tiered pension system as key areas of focus [5] - The emergence of AI as a new asset class is highlighted, with personal data potentially being valued and converted into data asset equity, allowing individuals to share in the growth of related technology companies [5][6] - Long-term funds, such as pensions, should actively invest in AI and other new productive assets to enable residents to benefit from long-term investments [6]

Group 1 - The real estate sector experienced a significant surge on December 10, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising over 4%, and major companies like Vanke A and Hainan Airport seeing gains of over 5% [1][4] - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, the real estate ETF (159707), saw a remarkable rebound of over 4% in the afternoon, with a net subscription of 20 million units [1][4] - Data from the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute indicated that as of November, the cumulative transaction of second-hand homes in four first-tier cities reached 519,000 units, surpassing the same period in 2024 and breaking the 510,000 unit mark for the first time in four years [1][4] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts that 2026 may be a critical year for real estate companies to enter a balance sheet repair phase, with some firms potentially reaching a long-term profit bottom [2][6] - Companies that are likely to recover first are those with well-placed assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [2][6] - The real estate ETF (159707) is highlighted for its concentration on top-tier real estate firms, with over 90% of the weight in the top ten constituent stocks, indicating a strong focus on central state-owned enterprises and quality real estate companies [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market supply and demand situation has improved, and adjustments are considered sufficient, with expectations for stabilization by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some companies potentially reaching the bottom of their profit cycles [1] - Companies that are the first to recover are likely to be those with well-positioned assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - There is a positive outlook for companies characterized by strong regions, good business models, and effective operations, referred to as the "three good companies" [1]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is pessimistic, with new homes struggling to sell and many large private developers facing debt defaults [1] - In Weihai, all new projects observed were completed homes, with no pre-sale properties available, indicating a lack of buyer confidence [1] - The second-hand housing market is also weak, with significant price drops and low transaction volumes, leading to frustration among real estate agents [1] Group 2 - Major real estate companies are facing substantial debt burdens, with Evergrande and Country Garden among those with significant outstanding debt [2][3] - The debt levels of various developers are alarming, with Evergrande's total debt reaching approximately 1937.73 billion yuan, and Country Garden's at 971.5 billion yuan [2][3] - The restructuring of debts by companies like Sunac has only temporarily alleviated their financial issues, as they have lost access to future financing [1][6] Group 3 - The government has been actively supporting the securities market to stimulate economic growth, as the real estate sector requires long-term recovery [8] - The decline in consumer confidence is linked to the need for both developers and homeowners to repair their balance sheets after significant losses in property values [9] - The real estate market is expected to return to a more normalized state, with long-term implications for property prices and investment strategies [8][9] Group 4 - The demand for high-end properties in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai remains relatively strong, despite the overall market downturn [7] - The market for luxury apartments continues to attract wealthy buyers, indicating a potential divergence in demand based on property type and location [7] - The trend of declining prices in secondary markets is more pronounced, particularly in lower-tier cities, where transaction volumes have plummeted [12][14]

Group 1 - The global industrial chain, monetary system, and asset analysis framework are undergoing reconstruction due to diminishing trust among countries, with gold potentially entering a long-term bull market driven by de-dollarization and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Domestic economic demand remains to be boosted, and policies are expected to maintain a gradually positive tone [3] - Inflation is hovering at low levels, with the key to its rebound lying internally rather than externally, suggesting that policy efforts may become more aggressive in the second half of the year [5] Group 2 - May export growth has slowed, not due to previous over-shipments or temporary fluctuations, but rather due to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, indicating a resilient export sector despite a lower central tendency [9] - The high-interest rate environment caused by recent dollar credit discounts has led to a notable slowdown in private credit expansion in the U.S., creating a fragile balance that requires careful policy management to avoid potential debt crises [11] - The market for human-robot bearings is expected to see significant growth due to the development of humanoid robots, with domestic replacement opportunities becoming increasingly prominent [27] Group 3 - The recent trading heat in Chinese assets has increased, with a notable inflow of financing funds and new equity fund issuances exceeding 10 billion [13] - The Hong Kong stock market is emerging as a key battleground in the current bull market, driven by the scarcity of attractive assets and supportive domestic policies [16] - The expansion of ETFs is beneficial for credit bonds, with significant differences in duration and component concentration between Shanghai and Shenzhen market indices [20]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - May CPI year-on-year growth is -0.1%, with a month-on-month decline of -0.2%[5] - May PPI year-on-year growth is -3.3%, with a month-on-month decline of -0.4%[16] - The gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year continues to widen, indicating resilient service prices supporting inflation recovery[26] Group 2: CPI Analysis - Food prices remain stable, while oil prices exert downward pressure; service prices show resilience[6] - Transportation and communication prices decreased significantly, contributing -0.62% to the CPI[6] - Core CPI month-on-month fell to 0.0% (previously 0.2%), with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6%[12] Group 3: PPI Analysis - PPI recovery is hindered by multiple factors, including falling international commodity prices and weak construction activity[16] - Coal and cement prices showed significant weakness in May, with coal mining prices down -3.0% month-on-month[16] - Export decline exacerbates supply-demand mismatch, with May exports showing a slight month-on-month decrease[16] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Trade tensions easing has not significantly aided the recovery of private sector balance sheets[27] - Private sector risk appetite has declined post negotiations, currently below levels prior to tariff increases[27] - Ongoing real estate pressures and weaker-than-expected consumer recovery remain key risks[31]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of trade tensions, the private sector's risk appetite has rebounded and then declined, with limited progress in balance sheet repair, leading to persistently low inflation. The key to inflation recovery lies internally rather than externally, with more proactive policy measures expected in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - CPI remained low in May, with seasonal declines in food prices and input pressures from international oil prices. Service prices showed resilience, leading to an expanding gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year [1][2]. - The transportation and communication prices decreased due to national subsidies and falling oil prices, which significantly impacted May's CPI. Core CPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6% [3]. PPI Analysis - PPI recovery faced multiple constraints, including a decline in international commodity prices affecting domestic industries, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw significant month-on-month price drops [4][5]. - Adverse weather conditions impacted the peak season for coal demand, leading to a continued weakening trend in extraction prices, with construction materials like cement and rebar also showing notable declines in May [5]. - A slight month-on-month decline in exports exacerbated supply-demand mismatches, with tariff impacts on exports becoming more apparent. The easing of trade tensions has not significantly aided the repair of private sector balance sheets, as evidenced by a drop in risk appetite indicators [6].