Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with various sub-sectors experiencing growth and opportunities as domestic consumption trends improve [1][10]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Overview - Since early 2025, there has been a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, and final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [1]. - The implementation of policies such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" has injected vitality into the consumer market, leading to significant increases in tourism and dining revenues during holidays [1]. - The upcoming mid-year reporting season is expected to be a critical point for validating the recovery in the consumer sector [1]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with the liquor sector under pressure while leading brands maintain steady growth due to strong brand influence [2]. - The beer sector benefits from consumption upgrades and product innovation, while the snack sector is growing due to health-conscious and personalized consumption trends [2]. Group 3: Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel industry is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in the sportswear segment, driven by increased awareness of fitness among consumers [3]. - Major sports brands are investing in R&D to launch high-tech, high-performance products to meet consumer demands for quality and functionality [3]. Group 4: Retail Sector - The traditional retail sector is facing challenges from online shopping, leading to a decline in consumption; however, cross-border e-commerce leaders are showing strong growth [4]. - The high growth in import and export trade in Yiwu and the opening of global trade centers are providing new opportunities for cross-border e-commerce companies [4]. Group 5: Social Services Sector - The social services sector is witnessing a surge in cross-border tourism demand, supported by inbound travel policies and the travel needs of younger and older demographics [5]. - Online travel agencies are launching personalized and diverse travel products to cater to varying consumer needs [5]. Group 6: Light Manufacturing Sector - The light manufacturing industry is facing short-term export pressures, but segments like home furnishings, packaging, and pet food are performing well [6]. - The recovery in the real estate market is boosting demand in the home furnishings sector, while the packaging industry benefits from the growth of e-commerce and express delivery [6]. Group 7: Home Appliances Sector - The home appliances industry is experiencing a significant recovery in domestic demand, driven by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [7]. - While the export market faces uncertainties due to tariff policies, long-term growth potential remains strong as global economies recover and Chinese brands enhance their competitiveness [7]. Group 8: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong consumer sector is characterized by scarce assets and high growth in earnings, indicating strong performance among leading companies [8]. Group 9: Trend in Niche Markets - The trendy toy industry is seeing strong performance from leading companies, with significant growth in revenue, net profit, and profit margins [9]. - The high-end and trendy gold jewelry sectors are achieving growth through unique designs and brand advantages, catering to young consumers' demand for personalized, high-quality products [9]. - The new-style tea beverage sector is showing significant differentiation, with leading brands achieving double-digit growth and strong store expansion [9]. Group 10: Policy Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to boost domestic consumption, with fiscal subsidies playing a crucial role in driving growth [10]. - Sectors such as home appliances and consumer electronics are likely to benefit from policies promoting the replacement of old products, while offline service consumption is set to see new development opportunities [10].

金十数据7月22日讯，野村发报告指，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)董事长王宁近日接受《人民日报》专访，为 其增添了另一利好因素。野村认为，这或许是监管机构对公司高价值IP/中国文化出口模式的认可。暂 维持"买入"评级及目标价330港元。野村注意到访谈中的两个亮点，其一，随著中国从低价值制造业产 品转向高端及文化出口，泡泡玛特由IP驱动的高端定价能力与国家重点相契合，使其成为中国企业海外 增长的旗舰。其二，王宁表示，预计Labubu的销量将在今年9月起，月销量稳定在1000万件。该行认 为，这或推动《THE MONSTERS》在今年下半年带来70-81亿元人民币的收入，增强对泡泡玛特2025年 下半年销售及盈利可见性的信心。 野村：泡泡玛特董事长接专访增另一利好 料Labubu月销或达千万件 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's service industry is experiencing a new trend of overseas expansion, with short dramas, mobile games, and trendy toys becoming significant carriers of new consumption forms, showing strong growth despite increasing tariff frictions this year [1][2]. Group 2 - New consumption overseas is experiencing a counter-trend explosion, with Sensor Tower data indicating that by Q1 2025, Chinese short drama platforms ReelShort and DramaBox will see revenue growth of 31% and 29% respectively, ranking first and second globally in short drama app revenue [2]. - In the gaming sector, 33 Chinese companies made it to the global top 100 mobile game publishers by June 2025, collectively accounting for 33% of the total revenue of the top 100 [2]. Group 3 - The underlying logic of the "dopamine economy" is that short dramas, games, and trendy toys effectively tap into user psychology, creating instant gratification and sustained anticipation, activating the brain's dopamine reward system [3]. - Data from 2020 to 2024 shows a surge in sales of healing toys in Europe, the US, and Japan, reflecting the rigid demand for emotional consumption [3]. Group 4 - The deepening of mobile internet has accelerated this trend, with over 1 billion internet users in China creating fragmented scenarios that promote the prosperity of UGC (User Generated Content) and PUGC (Professional User Generated Content) ecosystems [4]. - The market for mini-program games is expected to experience explosive growth from 2022 to 2024, providing fertile ground for "short and quick" content [4]. Group 5 - The industrialized production mechanism of short dramas involves neuroscience applications, with episodes typically lasting 5-15 minutes and featuring plot twists every 1-2 minutes to trigger dopamine release cycles [5]. - Data-driven production methods, such as A/B testing for content optimization, allow for rapid identification of user preferences through "small-scale trial and error" [5]. Group 6 - Innovations in business models, such as vertical screen formats and advertising monetization, lower user barriers and expand audiences, enabling efficient monetization through traffic and advertising [6]. - The development of short dramas over the past three years represents a reshaping of the content industry landscape and marks the beginning of an unstoppable journey overseas [6]. Group 7 - Chinese companies have a dual advantage in overseas expansion, benefiting from a vast talent pool of over 1 million art exam candidates and 400,000 design graduates annually, forming the world's largest creative talent reservoir [8]. - The business model leverages a complete supply chain, cost efficiency, global self-operated models, and IP creation, forming a tripartite new business model that provides inclusive products and services [8]. Group 8 - The transition from manufacturing to creation is evident as Chinese companies reconstruct global content industry rules through "dopamine products," moving from "Made in China" to "Created in China" with emotional consumer goods [9].

Core Insights - Quantum Song (NASDAQ: QSG) is transitioning into the trendy toy sector, launching a new original IP called SIINONO, which significantly boosted sales at its Shanghai store by 31.3% on the launch day [1] - The company completed a 61% acquisition of Shenzhen Yiqi Culture Co., Ltd. (Letsvan), marking a substantial step in its transformation towards the new consumption field [1][5] - The domestic trendy toy market is still in its early stages, with expectations of continued growth, projected to reach a total value of 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [2] Company Strategy - Quantum Song's strategy involves focusing on professional expertise, with Letsvan concentrating on designing emotionally resonant trendy toy IPs, while Quantum Song optimizes structure and resource efficiency [2][8] - The company aims to leverage celebrity endorsements and innovative marketing strategies to enhance the emotional connection between trendy toy IPs and consumers [7][8] Market Dynamics - The trendy toy market is evolving, with a shift from blind box competition to a more diverse range of products, including plush toys and articulated figures, driven by increased capital involvement [6] - The supply chain for trendy toys has improved, reducing the new product sampling cycle from six months to 72 hours, which enhances the ability to respond to market trends [6] Competitive Landscape - Companies entering the trendy toy market face challenges due to the short lifecycle of trendy toy products, which typically have a sales peak of no more than three months [9] - To achieve sustainable growth, trendy toy companies need to build four core competencies: supply chain resilience, lifecycle management, extensive distribution channels, and precision in craftsmanship [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing battle against counterfeit "LABUBU" products in China, emphasizing the challenges of intellectual property protection in the booming collectible toy market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Customs Actions - Nanjing Lukou Airport Customs recently seized 19,400 suspected counterfeit "LABUBU" toys, which were found to infringe on the copyright of Beijing Pop Mart Cultural and Creative Co., Ltd [1][3]. - Customs across China have been actively targeting counterfeit "LABUBU" products, with significant seizures reported, including 952 toys at Beijing Daxing Airport and 20,599 items at Gongbei Customs [3][4]. - The term "LAFUFU" has emerged to refer to fake "LABUBU" products, highlighting the prevalence of counterfeit goods in the market [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The collectible toy market in China has seen a surge, with exports of dolls and animal toys exceeding 10 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, marking a 9.6% increase [5]. - In the first half of the year, customs authorities seized 11,000 batches and 38.675 million items suspected of infringement, including counterfeit "LABUBU" products [5]. - The rise of counterfeit goods is linked to the increasing demand for limited-edition toys and collectibles among younger consumers, leading to a new wave of smuggling and illegal sales [5][6]. Group 3: Brand and Manufacturer Response - Industry experts suggest that legitimate manufacturers should take proactive measures to enhance supply chain management and optimize production to reduce the market for counterfeit products [7]. - Despite efforts to increase anti-counterfeiting measures, such as adding security features, the demand for "LABUBU" products continues to outpace supply, leading to persistent challenges for the brand [7]. - The company is exploring advanced solutions, such as chip implantation, to improve product verification and combat counterfeiting effectively [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a period of intensive mid-year earnings forecasts disclosure, with nearly 120 companies having released their forecasts as of July 18, resulting in a positive earnings forecast rate of 50.85% [1] Group 2: Companies with Significant Earnings Growth - Pop Mart expects its revenue to grow by no less than 200% and profit to increase by no less than 350% in the first half of the year, driven by enhanced brand recognition and diversified product offerings [3] - Huabao International anticipates a pre-tax profit of between 151.2 million to 177.2 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 91.3% to 124.3% compared to the same period last year [3] - Guoquan expects a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan, reflecting a growth of about 111% to 146% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [4] - Zhou Hei Ya forecasts total revenue between 1.2 billion to 1.24 billion yuan, a slight decline of about 1.5% to 4.7% year-on-year, but expects profit to increase by 55.2% to 94.8% [4] - October Rice Field anticipates adjusted net profit of no less than 283 million yuan, a growth of at least 90% compared to the previous year, driven by innovation and deep operations in the home food category [5] - Andeli Juice expects a net profit of approximately 187 million to 214 million yuan, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, due to increased customer orders and significant growth in concentrated juice sales [5] Group 3: Companies with Expected Earnings Decline - Conning Hospital projects a decline in net profit of approximately 25% to 35% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to reduced operating income from decreased average daily expenses per bed [7] - Xinyi Solar expects a net profit decline of 56% to 66% in the first half of 2025, attributed to a significant drop in average selling prices of solar glass products and an oversupply in the market [8] - Xinyi Glass anticipates a net profit decrease of 55% to 65%, driven by declining revenue and gross profit in the float glass business due to weak demand and market price pressures [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the internet media sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a high level of activity in the consumer sector, particularly in areas such as trendy toys, music, and concerts, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok providing significant growth [5]. - The gaming industry is experiencing overall high activity, with a notable market size of 27.4 billion yuan in April 2025, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth [5]. - AI applications are beginning to show commercial viability, with companies like Meitu and Kuaishou leading in AI creative tools and advertising, respectively [5]. - The cloud computing sector continues to grow, driven by advancements in AI models and decreasing costs, with Alibaba expected to lead in this area [5]. - The advertising industry is facing challenges, but companies like Focus Media are expected to benefit from collaborations and increased advertising budgets [5]. - The film industry is seeing a shift towards new consumer experiences, with companies like Light Media and Wanda Film adapting to market changes [5]. Summary by Sections Consumer Sector - Pop Mart's mid-year profit growth is projected to be no less than 350%, driven by global market expansion and IP development [5]. - Blok is achieving high growth through affordable products targeting younger demographics and international markets [5]. Gaming Industry - The gaming market size reached 27.4 billion yuan in April 2025, with a 22% year-on-year increase [5]. - Major companies like Tencent and NetEase have not released significant new titles, relying on existing games for revenue [5]. - Notable growth is expected from second-tier companies with new product launches in the latter half of the year [5]. AI Applications - Meitu is recognized as a leading AI creative tool provider, catering to the needs of Gen Z consumers [5]. - Kuaishou's AI initiatives have generated over 100 million yuan in monthly revenue within ten months of launch [5]. - AI is positively impacting advertising effectiveness for platforms like Tencent and Bilibili [5]. Cloud Computing - The cloud computing sector is expected to accelerate, with a focus on large model iterations and AI applications [5]. - Alibaba is anticipated to lead the domestic cloud market, with increased competition expected to stabilize [5]. Advertising Industry - The overall advertising sector is weak, but Focus Media's collaboration with Alipay is expected to generate additional revenue [5]. Film Industry - The domestic film market saw a box office of approximately 4.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with companies like Light Media and Wanda Film pivoting towards new consumer experiences [5].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the competition between JD.com and Meituan in the field of embodied intelligence, highlighting their strategic investments and future directions [2][3]. - JD.com has made significant investments in the robotics sector, including a recent round of funding for Qianxun Intelligent and other robotics companies, indicating a strong commitment to embodied intelligence technology [3][9]. - The article discusses the broader implications of these investments for the supply chain and technology innovation ecosystem, suggesting that JD.com aims to leverage both internal innovations and external investments to enhance its capabilities [9]. Group 2 - The article mentions the rapid growth of the Iraqi market for energy storage, positioning it as a battleground for leading manufacturers, similar to South Africa's market dynamics [6]. - It highlights the increasing trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas, with a focus on the performance of major players in the A-share market and their potential for growth through international ventures [10]. - The report indicates that the export value of Fujian Province to the EU has surpassed 100 billion yuan for the first time, reflecting a significant increase in trade relations [11].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 21 年 月 日 商贸零售 餐饮茶饮：部分餐饮标的 6 月数据向好，茶饮三季度有望受益。1）受自 身求变及基数影响，部分餐饮标的 6 月份开始有向好表现：锅圈 2025H1 预警亮眼，预计 2025H1 核心经营利润 1.8-2.1 亿元/同比+44%-68%，印 证单店改善及盈利能力变化；九毛九 2025Q2 门店数持续优化，主要品牌 客单价稳中有升，同店降幅环比改善，或为公司门店调整及战略重心从短 期促销向强化产品品质和优化产品组合&客户体验的成效。2）茶饮三季度 有望受益，我们预计，Q3 同店维持相对高增，优秀茶饮企业明年依然能 维持高增展店，长期受益于行业空间及连锁化率提升。3）此外，禁酒令 Q2 颁布以来，聚餐餐饮场景或受一定影响。 零售潮玩：传统调改，新兴高增。1）传统零售企业胖改成效依然显著，截 止 2025 年 6 月 30 日，永辉超市共计调改门店 124 家，且上半年关店 227 家，以永辉超市、步步高为例，胖改初现成效；同时，其余龙头如重庆百 货、家家悦等均不断推进商品、服务、场景、供应链调整；2）母婴、名创 优品等专 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of marketing trends, emphasizing the shift from traditional attention-grabbing tactics to a deeper understanding of consumer emotions and values [2][3][4] - It highlights the emergence of the "emotional economy," where brands are encouraged to facilitate consumer expression rather than merely reflecting emotions in marketing [5][7][8] - The concept of "story monetization" is introduced, where storytelling becomes a fundamental infrastructure for brands, allowing consumers to identify with the brand's narrative [9][10][11] Group 2 - The article identifies "silent loyalty" as a growing trend, focusing on consumers who consistently purchase without engaging in active brand interactions [13][15][16] - It suggests that brands should prioritize stable experiences and clear communication to build trust with these silent consumers [17][18][19] - The piece also discusses the fragmentation of consumer circles, where algorithm-driven content distribution creates distinct communities with unique values and communication styles [18][19][20] Group 3 - The article outlines the AI marketing revolution, describing how AI tools are evolving from mere execution devices to collaborative partners in the marketing process [21][22][23] - It emphasizes the need for marketers to adapt to this new paradigm, where AI assists in decision-making and strategy formulation [24][27] - The concept of "multi-modal ecological integration" is introduced, highlighting the importance of creating immersive brand experiences in physical spaces rather than just digital interactions [28][30][31] Group 4 - The conclusion reiterates the importance of brands maintaining a stable presence and building trust amidst uncertainty, suggesting that genuine connections with consumers are essential for long-term loyalty [33][34][35]