Group 1 - The Shenzhen office market is showing significant structural opportunities amidst ongoing adjustments, driven by positive pricing strategies and strong momentum from emerging industries [1] - In the first half of 2025, the city recorded a net absorption of approximately 180,000 square meters, which is about 55% of the level from the same period last year [1] - Headquarters-based self-use demand has become the cornerstone of the market, contributing over 70% of the net absorption in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The technology and internet sectors remain key sources of demand, contributing nearly 20% of the leasing transaction area in the first half of the year [1] - The hard technology sector, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, and integrated circuits, has shown strong performance with multiple large-scale transactions [1] - The rapid rise of cross-border e-commerce and its ecosystem service providers has become a new highlight in the market, with cumulative leasing transactions of approximately 25,000 square meters in the first half of the year [1] Group 3 - The financial sector has demonstrated strong resilience, with multiple securities, insurance, and private equity firms establishing new branches in Shenzhen [2] - The growth of hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing is injecting strong structural growth momentum into the office market [2] - The booming development of big data and artificial intelligence technologies is expected to create new growth prospects for the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on June 25, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; crude oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, glass, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 3880 and 3900 points and support levels at 3852 and 3830 points [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 109.12 and 109.18 yuan and support levels at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [3]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 121.1 and 121.3 yuan and support levels at 120.8 and 120.7 yuan [3]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with support levels at 764.3 and 758.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 772.5 and 775.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 8537 and 8496 yuan/kg and resistance levels at 8743 and 8785 yuan/kg [3]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 78000 and 77600 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78500 and 78700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 20210 and 20170 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 20320 and 20430 yuan/ton [3]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 2929 and 2955 yuan/ton and support levels at 2870 and 2844 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 61900 and 63000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 60600 and 59500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2961 and 2949 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2983 and 2991 yuan/ton [4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 3078 and 3066 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3099 and 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 695 and 689 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 705 and 710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 792 and 807 yuan/ton and support levels at 772 and 760 yuan/ton [4]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 998 and 987 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1021 and 1026 yuan/ton [4]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 1147 and 1135 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1164 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 519 and 525 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2997 and 2978 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3065 and 3080 yuan/ton [5]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 13790 and 13950 yuan/ton, with support levels at 13660 and 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Pulp Futures**: The SP2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 5072 and 4994 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 5136 and 5150 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - A grand military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [8]. - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [8]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and most economists at the forum's chief economist briefing noted the stable performance of the Chinese economy, with an expected growth rate of over 5% in the second half of the year [8]. - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, with a net MLF injection of 118 billion yuan in June, and a total net injection of medium - term liquidity of 318 billion yuan after including the 200 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [9]. - Many experts expect the central bank to continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a possible interest rate cut of up to 30 basis points and a reserve requirement cut of up to 0.5 percentage points [9]. - When receiving personal pensions, individuals need to pay 3% personal income tax on the amount received, regardless of whether it is principal or investment income [9]. - The second review draft of the revised Anti - Unfair Competition Law plans to regulate unfair competition behaviors such as infringement of data rights and malicious transactions [9]. - The EU restricts Chinese enterprises' participation in its medical device public procurement, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce strongly opposes it [10]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [10]. - Global central banks are considering shifting funds from the US dollar to gold, the euro, and the RMB [10]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed is in a favorable position to wait patiently before adjusting its monetary policy stance, but he does not rule out an earlier interest rate cut [10]. - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed may cut interest rates even if inflation remains high if the labor market deteriorates significantly [11]. - The US banking industry is about to receive the most significant capital relaxation since 2008 [11]. - The US current account deficit in the first quarter soared to a record high of $450.2 billion, and the goods trade deficit reached a record high of $466 billion [12]. - The US consumer confidence index in June unexpectedly dropped to 93 [12]. Commodity Futures - related Information - Domestic commodity futures fell across the board in night trading, with energy products leading the decline. Crude oil fell 9.27%, fuel oil fell 6.05%, etc. [12]. - International oil prices dropped sharply on June 24, with US crude oil futures down 5.11% and Brent crude oil futures down 5.19% [12]. - International precious metal futures generally fell on June 24, with COMEX gold futures down 1.66% and COMEX silver futures down 0.88% [13]. - Most London base metals fell on June 24, with LME aluminum down 0.79% and LME tin down 0.71% [13]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 24, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar reached its highest level since November 2024 [13]. - The US dollar index fell on June 24, and non - US currencies generally rose [14]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On June 24, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all showed upward trends, with increased trading volume in the A - share market. Many foreign asset management institutions are optimistic about the structural opportunities in the Chinese market [14][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 24, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan [35]. - **Gold Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of gold futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [42]. - **Silver Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of silver futures showed a slight decline, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in June 2025 and may reach a new high [50]. - **Copper Futures**: On June 24, the new main contract of copper futures rose slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [55]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of aluminum futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [59]. - **Alumina Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of alumina futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range in June 2025 [62]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose strongly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [66]. - **Rebar Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of rebar futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in June 2025 [66]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [73]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of iron ore futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range in June 2025 [76]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of coking coal futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25 [83]. - **Glass Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of glass futures rose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [85]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of soda ash futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [87]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of crude oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [89]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of fuel oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [93]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of natural rubber futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [93]. - **Pulp Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of pulp futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [97].

Market Overview - On June 24, the equity market experienced a significant surge, primarily driven by the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the participation of stabilizing funds, with notable strength in the non-bank and technology sectors [2][3] - Major stock indices saw broad increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, the CSI 300 by 1.20%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.30% [2] - The bond market continued its upward trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 0.6 basis points and the 30-year bond by 1.35 basis points [2][4] Oil and Gold Market - Following the ceasefire announcement, market risk aversion decreased sharply, leading to significant declines in oil and gold prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures dropping by 8.95% and 7.62% respectively [3] - Gold prices also fell, retreating from a high of $3,367 per ounce to around $3,310 per ounce due to reduced geopolitical risks [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank's substantial net injection of liquidity helped stabilize the funding environment as the market entered a cross-quarter week [4] - The overnight funding rates showed a downward trend, with the R001 and DR001 rates remaining stable at 1.44% and 1.37% respectively [4] - The issuance of long-term government bonds saw a slight increase in yield, with the 30-year bond yield rising to 1.85% [6] Equity Market Trends - The A-share market saw a volume increase, with the total trading volume reaching 1.45 trillion yuan, up by 301.1 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - The surge was attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the influx of stabilizing funds, particularly in sectors that had previously underperformed [7] - The market's strong performance suggests a temporary alleviation of the "crisis" sentiment that had been building [7] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector saw a notable increase, with the SW Non-Bank Financial Index rising by 2.68%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] - The Hong Kong market also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.06% and 2.14% respectively [10] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain within a consolidation framework established since mid-May, with potential upward pressure from profit-taking sentiments [8] - The upcoming military parade on September 3 may also influence market sentiment, particularly in sectors related to defense and technology [10]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective rise with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.67%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.05%, and ChiNext Index up by 1.46% [1][5] - Hong Kong stocks also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.39% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.67% [2][3] Sector Performance - Active sectors included smart driving and robotics, while oil and gas stocks saw significant declines [1][5] - Financial heavyweights such as brokerage and insurance stocks contributed to the rise in stock indices, with notable performances from Guosheng Financial and Xiangcai Securities [5][8] Oil and Gas Sector - A-shares in the oil and gas sector faced substantial declines, with Tongyuan Petroleum hitting a 20% limit down, and several other companies like Qianeng Hengxin and Xinjin Power dropping over 10% [9] - In the Hong Kong market, Shandong Molong fell by 26%, Baijin Oilfield Services dropped by 25%, and Sinopec Oilfield Services decreased by 15% [10] Bond Market - The bond market showed a downward trend, with the 30-year and 10-year treasury futures contracts down by 0.02% and 0.01% respectively [4][15] Emerging Trends - Solid-state battery concept stocks remained active, with Xiangtan Electric achieving a four-day consecutive rise, and several other companies in the sector seeing gains of over 5% [11] - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, is expected to influence the autonomous driving sector positively [12]

Macro Dynamics - New Zealand will implement two visa facilitation policies for Chinese citizens starting November 2025, allowing entry with an electronic travel authorization (NZeTA) for those holding valid Australian visas, enabling a stay of up to 3 months without additional visa applications [1] - The second policy allows Chinese citizens transiting through New Zealand airports to apply for NZeTA without needing a transit visa starting November 2025 [1] Disaster Relief - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management have allocated over 81,500 pieces of central disaster relief materials to Hunan Province to support emergency relocation and living security for affected residents due to severe flooding [2] Donations - Huazhong University of Science and Technology received a record donation of 180 million yuan from an anonymous donor, aimed at encouraging more alumni participation in the university's development [3] Financial Institutions - Hangzhou Yuhang Rural Commercial Bank's 5% equity will be publicly auctioned with a starting price of approximately 834.7 million yuan, with the auction set for mid-July [6] - The new general manager of Huayuan Fund is Chen Hongbin, who replaces Liang Yongqiang due to work adjustments [7] Market Data - U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.22%, and Dow Jones up 0.08%. Notable declines included Google, which fell nearly 4%, while Apple rose over 2% [9] Company Dynamics - A TCL Elite Club membership in Shenzhen will be auctioned starting at 11 million yuan, including rights to a property and various club benefits [10] - Multiple brands of power banks and battery cells, including Romoss and Anker, have had their 3C certification suspended due to safety concerns [11]

Economic Data Impact - US retail sales in May recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector. Retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, while core retail sales decreased by 0.3% [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, with market predictions indicating two potential rate cuts of 25 basis points each starting as early as September [5] Energy Sector Response - International oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the EU's proposal to ban imports of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. WTI crude oil rose by $3.07 (4.28%) to $74.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by $3.22 (4.4%) to $76.45 per barrel [10][9] - Energy stocks experienced a broad increase, with Occidental Petroleum, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Schlumberger all showing gains [10][11] Airline Industry Developments - Indian Airlines canceled at least five international flights due to technical issues, affecting Boeing aircraft. This led to a decline in airline stocks, with American Airlines dropping over 3% and United Airlines falling more than 6% [7][8] Technology Sector Trends - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Tesla dropping nearly 4%, Apple down over 1%, and Amazon falling by 0.59%. The overall trend indicates a challenging environment for large tech companies [12] - Amazon's CEO indicated that the adoption of generative AI tools will lead to a reduction in the workforce over the next few years, as fewer employees will be needed for certain tasks [13]

Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for May, which increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Concurrently, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to substantial price increases in commodities like gold and oil, while major global stock indices faced pressure [1] U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed lower for the week, with the Dow Jones falling over 1% and the Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, declining even more, indicating cautious expectations for future growth [3] - Despite the decline in inflation potentially supporting asset valuations, hedge funds and institutional investors have not fully shifted to a bullish stance, instead adopting a more defensive approach amid rising oil and gold prices [3] - Notable tech giants such as Apple, Meta, and Amazon experienced pullbacks, reflecting profit-taking pressures after previous gains, while Tesla showed strength due to positive developments in AI and energy sectors [3] European Market Dynamics - The European market faced dual pressures from political uncertainty and macroeconomic slowdown, with the German DAX index dropping over 3% for the week, making it the worst performer among major global markets [3] - In contrast, the UK market remained relatively resilient, possibly due to stable fluctuations in the British pound and benefits to energy-related companies [3] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices surged due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts and uncertain supply outlooks, while gold reached a temporary high driven by safe-haven demand [4] - The rapid increase in commodity prices has not yet translated into higher PPI and CPI levels but is beginning to impact corporate cost structures, which could suppress corporate profits and consumer confidence if sustained [4] - The current market state should not be oversimplified as either "bearish" or "bullish," but rather viewed as a transitional phase where investors are cautious and awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]

一觉醒来，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点， 标普指数跌回6000点下方， 德法意股指 收跌超1%， 英国富时100指数收跌0.39%。本周德国股指跌超 3.2%，丹麦股指累涨4.7% 。 欧元区蓝筹股指数本周累跌约2.6%。 由于担心原油供应减少， 原油价格一度飙涨13%， 收涨超7% 创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。 避险情绪则助推 黄金收盘创新高， 涨逾1.4% 。 不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 发生了什么？ 以色列袭击伊朗，伊朗发起报复行动， 密集发射上百枚导弹 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 伊朗周五晚向以色列发射了"数百 枚"导弹。 此前据新华社报道，13日，哈梅内伊的国际事务高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提发表声明，宣布美国参与了以色列的袭击。 声明中，韦拉亚提强调，此次袭击发生在国际原子能机构理事会通过反伊朗决议后，以及第六轮伊美核谈判即将开始之前，并将此次袭击描述为以色列面 对伊朗日益增长的实力而"绝望和恐惧"的表现。 声明中，韦拉亚提表示，当前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在准备回应。 周 ...

港股收盘，恒生指数跌0.59%，恒生科技指数跌1.72%。港股科技ETF(159751)收盘下跌2.48%，恒生港 股通ETF(159318)收盘下跌0.68%。油气股走强，山东墨龙（002490）涨超75%，中石化油服（600871） 涨25%。科网股跌多涨少，小鹏汽车、舜宇光学科技跌超5%。 ...

Market Overview - US stock market closed slightly higher with the Dow Jones up 0.24% at 42,967.62 points, S&P 500 up 0.38% at 6,045.26 points, and Nasdaq up 0.24% at 19,662.48 points [2] - Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin predicts a potential short-term decline in US stocks due to economic headwinds, but expects a rebound by year-end, forecasting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 to reach 6,500 points [4] Economic Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by 2.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while core PPI rose by 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% [4] - The increase in PPI is attributed to limited rises in the costs of goods and services, with economists predicting heightened price pressures in the second half of the year as companies seek to protect profit margins [4] Boeing Incident - Boeing's stock fell nearly 5% following the first global incident involving a Boeing 787 aircraft, which crashed in India, resulting in at least 265 fatalities [5][6] - The crash has led to a decline in airline stocks, with American Airlines down over 1%, Delta Airlines down 0.62%, Southwest Airlines down over 2%, and United Airlines down over 1% [5][6] Oracle Performance - Oracle's stock rose over 13% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 against an expected $1.64, and revenue of $15.9 billion compared to the forecast of $15.59 billion [10] - The company anticipates significant growth in its cloud business, projecting a 40% increase overall and over 70% growth in cloud infrastructure by fiscal year 2026 [10] Trade Policy - The US Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances, including dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators, effective June 23, which may lead to increased consumer prices [11]