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目标价上调44%至39港元!招银国际看好中国宏桥(01378)供需改善驱动重估
智通财经网· 2025-11-18 06:52
中国作为全球铝供应核心,贡献约60%的全球产量。自2017年供给侧改革实施以来,国内铝产能上限锁 定在约4500万吨,供给端管控持续收紧。2025年9月,行业产能利用率攀升至99%的十年峰值,10月仍 维持98.6%的高位水平。海外市场方面,印尼等地区新增产能推进不及预期,招银国际预计未来3-6个月 全球铝供应增长仍将处于受限状态。 智通财经APP消息,招银国际发布研究报告,报告指出在供需格局持续优化、终端需求保持坚挺以及成 本端维持稳定等多重积极因素支撑下,中国宏桥(01378)有望迎来进一步价值重估。该行维持中国宏 桥"买入"评级,并将目标价从27港元大幅上调至39港元。 供应端约束强化,全球供给增长受限 终端需求韧性凸显,供需格局转向短缺 需求端表现强劲,电动汽车、电力设备、电子等核心应用领域需求保持韧性,为铝价提供坚实支撑。招 银国际预测,2025/26财年全球铝需求增速将分别达到2.1%和1.7%,而同期供应增速仅为1.7%和1.3%。 这意味着全球铝市将从2025财年的供应过剩格局,正式转向2026财年的供应短缺状态,供需缺口进一步 支撑行业景气度。 盈利预期上调,估值仍有上行空间 基于对铝价的乐 ...
中国宏桥(01378)折价配股致股价低开近8% 大摩指铝价高企其前景仍然乐观
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 06:42
来源:金吾财讯 金吾财讯 | 中国宏桥(01378)低开7.74%,报29.8港元,盘前成交额119亿港元。 摩根士丹利称,中国宏桥可能在短期内面临来自股权配售计划的轻微下行压力,但由于铝价高企其前景 仍然乐观;维持增持评级,目标价30.6港元。 公司公告公布,于2025年11月17日(交易时段后),拟先旧后新配售至多4亿股股份,占扩大的公司已 发行股本的约4.03%。每股配售价为29.2港元,较上交易日收市价32.3港元折让约9.6%。配售事项的所 得款项总额预期将约为116.8亿港元,而配售事项的所得款项净额预期约为114.9亿港元。公司拟将配售 事项及认购事项所得款项净额用作发展及提升其国内及海外项目、偿还现有债务以优化其资本架构,以 及用作补充营运资金及一般企业用途。 ...
美国铝价飙升之际,力拓再对北美铝材征收“附加费”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-18 05:34
Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto, the world's largest aluminum producer, is imposing an additional fee on aluminum products sold to the U.S., potentially disrupting an already strained North American aluminum market due to import tariffs [2] Group 1: Additional Fees and Costs - The additional fee imposed by Rio Tinto adds a layer on top of existing costs, which already include the Midwest premium reflecting transportation, storage, insurance, and financing costs [3] - The new fee adds an extra 1 to 3 cents on top of the Midwest premium, resulting in an increase of over 70% on the raw material price of approximately $2830 per ton, surpassing the 50% import tariff set by Trump [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The aluminum market in the U.S. is facing significant pressure due to Trump's tariffs, which were raised from 25% to 50%, leading importers to seek domestic supplies [4] - The London Metal Exchange has reported no aluminum inventory in the U.S., with the last 125 tons being withdrawn in October, indicating a critical supply shortage [4] - Domestic inventory levels are reported to be sufficient for only 35 days of consumption, a situation that typically triggers price increases [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Global Context - Canadian aluminum producers have redirected more metal to Europe to offset losses in the U.S. market, with Quebec accounting for about 90% of Canadian aluminum capacity [4] - A specific clause in presidential announcements allows imported aluminum to be exempt from tariffs if it is smelted and cast in the U.S., creating more demand for U.S.-manufactured aluminum [4] - In contrast, European regional premiums have decreased by about 5% year-over-year, but recent supply disruptions and upcoming EU import fees based on greenhouse gas emissions are expected to push global benchmark prices above $3000 per ton [5]
百亿重组落地,电投能源将去向何方?
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-11-18 04:19
Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Co., Ltd. (Electric Power Investment) has been successfully completed, increasing its market value from 40 billion to 60 billion yuan, and reinforcing its strategic position within the State Power Investment Corporation [1][2]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - The restructuring plan was announced on April 30, with the formal disclosure of the draft on November 14, involving the acquisition of 100% equity of Baiyin Hwa Coal Power Co., Ltd. for 11.149 billion yuan [2][3]. - The transaction will reduce the largest shareholder's stake from 55.77% to 43.24%, while the Inner Mongolia Energy Company will become the second-largest shareholder with a 22.46% stake [2][3]. - The share issuance price is set at 14.77 yuan per share, with 649 million shares to be issued, representing 22.46% of the total share capital post-transaction [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The net asset value of Baiyin Hwa Coal Power is assessed at 10.998 billion yuan, with a 46% appreciation over its book value [3]. - Post-transaction, Electric Power Investment's total assets will increase from 54.979 billion yuan to 80.079 billion yuan, while total liabilities will rise from 14.989 billion yuan to 33.318 billion yuan, leading to an increase in the debt-to-asset ratio from 27.26% to 41.61% [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 22.403 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.72%, but a net profit decline of 6.40% [3][4]. Group 3: Performance Commitments - The restructuring includes performance commitments, ensuring that Baiyin Hwa Coal Power achieves a cumulative net profit of no less than 1.663 billion yuan during the commitment period [4]. - If the transaction is completed by 2026, the profit commitments for the subsequent years are specified, with adjustments if the transaction is delayed [4]. Group 4: Strategic Advantages - The acquisition will enhance Electric Power Investment's coal production capacity from 48 million tons to 63 million tons, a 31.3% increase, and strengthen its "coal-electricity-aluminum" synergy [6][7]. - Baiyin Hwa Coal Power's operations align with Electric Power Investment's business focus, contributing significantly to its revenue and profit margins [7]. - Analysts predict that the acquisition will increase Electric Power Investment's annual net profit by approximately 1.867 billion yuan, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry [6][7]. Group 5: Market Reaction and Valuation - Following the announcement of the asset restructuring, Electric Power Investment's stock price has risen over 62%, adding more than 20 billion yuan to its market capitalization [7][8]. - Current estimates suggest that the intrinsic value of Electric Power Investment could reach 94.375 billion yuan, indicating potential for further market recognition and valuation increase [8].
真金白银提振信心,上市公司分红加码
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-11-18 03:41
值得关注的是,强化股东回报机制正成为上市公司的共识。明泰铝业在投资者关系记录表中明确表示, 已将逐步提升投资者回报形成共识,不仅连续两年实施中期分红且比例翻倍,更宣布未来三年将年度分 红比例提高至不低于30%。通过企业战略升级与投资者回报承诺的双重组合,上市公司正积极践行"提 质增效重回报"的行动方案。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜对此表示,稳定的分红预期能够提升公司价值,有助于进一步稳定资 本市场信心。他建议,应鼓励上市公司增加分红频次,简化中期分红程序,推动一年多次分红,让投资 者能更好地规划资金安排,更早地分享企业成长红利。随着越来越多公司加入高分红、高频次分红的行 列,A股市场的投资生态正朝着更加成熟、注重长期价值的方向稳步迈进。(文馨) 除了发布计划,积极实施分红的公司也络绎不绝。吉电股份、美的集团等均已完成前三季度或中期分 红。吉电股份在明确的中期分红计划指引下,实施了每10股派0.21元的前三季度分红;美的集团则大手 笔派发中期现金红利约34.48亿元。这些真金白银的回报,让投资者切实分享到了企业成长的红利。 【环球网财经综合报道】近期,多家上市公司密集披露分红计划与实施方案,从特别分红到中期 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:铝社会库存表现弱于预期-20251118
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 03:16
氧化铝期货方面:2025-11-17氧化铝主力合约开于2816元/吨,收于2817元/吨,较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨,变化幅度-0.70%,最高价达到2840元/吨,最低价为2774元/吨。全天交易日成交505612手,全天交易日 持仓390494手。 铝合金价格方面:2025-11-17保太民用生铝采购价格16800元/吨,机械生铝采购价格17000元/吨,价格环比昨 日变化-100元/吨。ADC12保太报价20900元/吨,价格环比昨日变化-100元/吨。 重要数据 铝现货方面:SMM数据,华东A00铝价21630元/吨,较上一交易日变化-280元/吨,华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨, 较上一交易日变化0元/吨;中原A00铝价21490元/吨,现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-140元/吨;佛山 A00铝价录21480元/吨,较上一交易日变化-280元/吨,铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-150元/吨。 铝期货方面:2025-11-17日沪铝主力合约开于21835元/吨,收于21725元/吨,较上一交易日变化-250元/吨, 最高价达21835元/吨,最低价达到21650元/吨。全天交 ...
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251118
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 02:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]
天山铝业11月17日获融资买入5447.11万元,融资余额5.22亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 01:33
分红方面,天山铝业A股上市后累计派现74.80亿元。近三年,累计派现43.81亿元。 融资方面,天山铝业当日融资买入5447.11万元。当前融资余额5.22亿元,占流通市值的0.83%,融资余 额低于近一年20%分位水平,处于低位。 融券方面,天山铝业11月17日融券偿还25.14万股,融券卖出1.66万股,按当日收盘价计算,卖出金额 22.43万元;融券余量109.97万股,融券余额1485.69万元,超过近一年80%分位水平,处于高位。 资料显示,天山铝业集团股份有限公司位于上海市浦东新区张杨路2389弄3号普洛斯大厦9层,成立日期 1997年11月3日,上市日期2010年12月31日,公司主营业务涉及原铝、铝深加工产品及材料、预焙阳 极、高纯铝、氧化铝的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为:销售自产铝锭65.26%,销售氧化铝 24.20%,销售铝箔及铝箔坯料6.89%,销售高纯铝2.10%,其他(补充)1.55%。 截至9月30日,天山铝业股东户数3.78万,较上期减少23.85%;人均流通股109224股,较上期增加 31.32%。2025年1月-9月,天山铝业实现营业收入223.21亿元,同比增长7.3 ...
闽发铝业(002578.SZ):目前公司生产与新能源汽车相关产品主要是蓄电池托架相关铝型材
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-18 01:23
格隆汇11月18日丨闽发铝业(002578.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示,目前公司生产与新能源汽车相关产品 主要是蓄电池托架相关铝型材,未来公司会根据市场需求积极开拓相关市场、丰富产品种类。 ...
中国宏桥 :通过一般授权配售及认购股份募资约 114.9 亿港元 发展项目及优化资本架构
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 00:30
中国宏桥是中国主要的大型铝产品制造商。所得款项中,约114.9亿港元将用于发展及提升国内及海外 项目、偿还现有债务以优化资本架构以及补充营运资金及一般企业用途。本次发行根据股东大会授予的 一般授权实施,预计于2025年11月20日完成。 点击查看公告原文>> 声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布,任何在本文出现的信 息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题,我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验, 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息,具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问,请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源:新浪港股-好仓工作室 2025年11月17日,中国宏桥(股份代号:1378)公告称,通过一般授权以"配售现有股份"及"先旧后新 认购新股份"方式融资,其中配售及认购各发行400,000,000股(约4.0亿股),募集总额约116.8亿港元; 扣除费用后净得约114.9亿港元。本次融资由UBS瑞银集团、招银国际、中信建投国际等担任联席全球 ...