Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc smelting production enthusiasm is high, and the start - up rate remains at a high level, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The galvanizing start - up rate has marginally increased [3]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The supply is increasing while the demand is in a weak off - season pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. During the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The previous week's closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 22,505 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. The night - session closing price was 22,390 yuan, with a decline of 0.51%. The previous week's closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,796.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 83,222 lots, an increase of 1,794 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 76,347 lots, a decrease of 18,548 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 10,973 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 190,988 lots, a decrease of 2,970 lots [6]. - **Basis Changes**: LME zinc's cash - to - 3 - month spread decreased by 4.99 dollars to - 5.22 dollars. The bonded area zinc premium increased by 140 dollars to 140 dollars. The Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 10 yuan to - 50 yuan [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical median level. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is still at a historical high level. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, both at relatively low historical levels [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][22]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has shown a stable and rising trend at a low level, and the inventory - to - open - interest ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decrease and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [30][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level. The increase rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a historical high level [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered. Smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly decreased, mostly at medium - to - low levels compared to the same period [54][57]. - The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity are presented in the report, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is also analyzed [70 - 74].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinglan Technology Co., Ltd., is expanding its financing channels and optimizing its capital structure by providing a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Gejiu Xinghua Zinc Industry Co., Ltd., to engage in supply chain financing for the procurement of zinc oxide powder [1][2]. Group 1: External Guarantee Overview - Gejiu Xinghua plans to sign a cooperation agreement with Honghe Rongtai Investment Co., Ltd. for the procurement of zinc oxide powder, with a financing amount not exceeding RMB 20 million and an annualized cost of no more than 10% [1][2]. - The company will provide joint liability guarantees for the main debt, upstream main debt, and downstream main debt under the cooperation agreement [1][3]. Group 2: Board Meeting and Approval - The company's board of directors approved the proposal to provide supply chain financing guarantees with a unanimous vote of 6 in favor, with no opposition or abstentions [2]. - The guarantee does not require submission to the shareholders' meeting for approval, in accordance with relevant regulations [2]. Group 3: Basic Information of the Guaranteed Company - Gejiu Xinghua has total assets of approximately RMB 157.27 million and total liabilities of about RMB 82.98 million, with reported revenue of approximately RMB 18.84 million and a net profit of RMB 63,956.91 for the fiscal year 2024 [2]. Group 4: Main Content of the Cooperation Agreement - The cooperation agreement outlines that Gejiu Xinghua will entrust Honghe Rongtai to advance funds for the procurement of zinc oxide powder, which will be used in production, with payment due after the sale of finished products or upon the expiration of the payment term [3][4]. - The payment terms stipulate that Gejiu Xinghua must pay 70% of the sales proceeds to Honghe Rongtai the day after receiving the sales revenue, and the full payment must be made within 60 days of the raw materials arriving at the factory [3][4]. Group 5: Responsibilities and Obligations - Gejiu Xinghua is responsible for all costs related to transportation, insurance, and quality assurance of the goods procured [4]. - If Gejiu Xinghua fails to sell the produced goods within the stipulated time, it must transport the products to a designated warehouse at its own expense [4]. Group 6: Guarantee Contract Details - The guarantee contract specifies that Jinglan Technology will provide joint liability guarantees for the debts arising from the cooperation agreement, including any penalties or damages incurred due to non-compliance [6][7]. - The guarantee period is set for three years from the expiration of the main debts [7]. Group 7: Board's Opinion - The board believes that the supply chain financing for Gejiu Xinghua is beneficial for its business development and complies with legal regulations and the company's articles of association, ensuring no harm to shareholder interests [10]. Group 8: Current Guarantee Status - As of the announcement date, the total amount of external guarantees provided by Jinglan Technology and its subsidiaries is within acceptable limits, with no overdue debts reported [10].

Group 1: Company Performance Highlights - Zhenray Technology reported a net profit increase of 1006.99% and a revenue growth of 73.64% in the first half of the year, driven by significant growth in its main business [3] - Pengding Holdings achieved a revenue of 16.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit of 1.233 billion yuan, up 57.22% [3] - Jinlongyu's revenue reached 115.682 billion yuan, a 5.67% increase, with a net profit of 1.756 billion yuan, growing by 60.07% [4] - Zhuhua Group's total revenue was 10.412 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and net profit increased by 57.83% to 585 million yuan [4] - Kweichow Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a 9.16% increase, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, growing by 8.89% [6] Group 2: Turnaround Stories - Zhongke Sanhuan achieved a net profit of 44 million yuan after a loss of 72 million yuan in the previous year, despite a revenue decrease of 11.17% to 2.922 billion yuan [9] - Yangfan New Materials reported a revenue of 473 million yuan, a 47.9% increase, and turned a loss of 21.24 million yuan into a net profit of 23.14 million yuan [9] - Haineng Technology's revenue grew by 34.87% to 136 million yuan, with a net profit of 547,150 yuan, recovering from a loss of 1.401 million yuan in the previous year [9]

Core Insights - A significant number of A-share listed companies have reported substantial earnings growth in their semi-annual reports, with many companies showing impressive performance [1][3][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhenray Technology reported a net profit increase of 1006.99% and a revenue growth of 73.64% year-on-year, driven by a surge in its main business income [3] - Pengding Holdings achieved a revenue of 16.375 billion yuan, up 24.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.233 billion yuan, reflecting a 57.22% increase [3] - Jinlongyu's revenue reached 115.682 billion yuan, a 5.67% increase, with a net profit of 1.756 billion yuan, up 60.07% [4] - Zhuhai Group's total revenue was 10.412 billion yuan, growing 14.89%, and its net profit increased by 57.83% to 585 million yuan [4] - Kweichow Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a 9.16% increase, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [6] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Zhenray Technology is focusing on strategic emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and deep-sea technology, leveraging its technological advantages and strong customer service [3] - Kweichow Moutai is enhancing its international market presence, with overseas revenue of approximately 2.9 billion yuan, accounting for 3.24% of total revenue, and increasing its foreign distributor count to 115 [6] Group 3: Turnaround Stories - Zhongke Sanhuan reported a revenue of 2.922 billion yuan, down 11.17%, but turned a profit of 44 million yuan compared to a loss of 72 million yuan in the previous year [9] - Yangfan New Materials achieved a revenue of 473 million yuan, up 47.9%, and turned a loss of 21.24 million yuan into a profit of 23.14 million yuan [9] - Haineng Technology reported a revenue of 136 million yuan, a 34.87% increase, and a net profit of 547,150 yuan, recovering from a loss of 1.401 million yuan in the previous year [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Short - and medium - term strategy: The anti - involution trading is over, and the market returns to the fundamental reality. The expectation that zinc will shift from balance to surplus remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out short positions on rallies [6]. - Macro aspect: As of August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 9.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 46.5% [7]. - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market eased, and zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Inventory showed a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventories continued to decline while domestic inventories continued to accumulate, which is the result of the geographical differentiation of refined zinc output. Overseas smelters face high costs. With the long - term treatment charge (TC) at a record low, high - cost overseas smelters are under great loss pressure, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization and production cuts. In contrast, domestic smelters have low costs and currently enjoy good smelting profits from both long - term and spot TCs. As a result, domestic smelting output has increased significantly, with the output in July having a year - on - year growth rate of over 20%. The trend of an expanding import loss of refined zinc also reflects the different situations of smelting at home and abroad. It is expected that the import loss will continue to widen, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the refined zinc export window opening. From a global perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore has gradually become looser, and the increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. Although the transmission from mine - end production increase to smelting output expansion has been delayed due to production cuts by overseas smelters, considering the sufficient existing and new smelting capacities in China, which can absorb the incremental output from the mine end, the increase in global zinc ore output will ultimately translate into an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden concern of a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the current level. Whether the demand is estimated to be relatively optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will put downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Output - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% [8]. - The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80 per ton, the lowest in history and halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed as shown by the change in spot TC [8]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Import Volume and Treatment Charge - From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has boosted the TC [11]. - As of August 8, according to SMM, the TC for imported zinc concentrate was reported at $82.3 per ton, and the TC for domestic zinc concentrate was reported at 3,900 yuan per ton. Both domestic and imported ore TCs have been raised several times recently [11]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - As the TC has been continuously raised, the smelter's profit has been continuously improved [14]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Output - In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18% [18]. - In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc output was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As the profit recovers, the output is gradually increasing [18]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons [20]. - The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part II: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side 3.1 Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31% [25]. - The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. 3.2 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) slowed down [27]. - The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [27]. 3.3 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic automobile output was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [30]. - In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted in stages, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. Part III: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc has been continuously accumulating. With the continuous increase in domestic smelter output, the trend of social inventory accumulation will continue [32]. 4.2 Spot Premium or Discount - As of August 8, the LME 0 - 3 premium or discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.23 per ton [35]. - With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [35]. 4.3 Exchange Position - As of August 1, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 25,513 lots [38]. - The weighted position volume of SHFE zinc has declined recently [38].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic zinc market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, leading to a potentially weak and volatile market in the short term [1] Market Price and Trends - As of August 8, the domestic electrolytic zinc spot price is 22,480 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 40 yuan per ton, or 0.18% [1] - Recent market trends show a slight recovery in zinc prices driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly a sharp decline in U.S. non-farm payrolls in July, which fell to 73,000, the lowest in nine months [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is pressured by increased production capacity from domestic smelters and a relaxed mining environment, contributing to downward pressure on zinc prices [1] - On the demand side, the market is currently in a low season, with suboptimal operating rates in galvanizing enterprises and weak demand, leading to an accumulation of zinc ingot social inventory [1] Market Outlook - After the macroeconomic sentiment is digested, the market is expected to revert to fundamentals, likely resulting in an overall weak performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded weakly. The weakening US dollar and the concentrated low inventory of LME zinc with signs of a squeeze contributed to the rebound of zinc prices both at home and abroad. However, due to the continued inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and insufficient downstream purchasing, the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was limited, and the rebound height is expected to be restricted [3][4][11] Summary by Directory Trading Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,320 yuan/ton to 22,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,729.5 dollars/ton to 2,834 dollars/ton, an increase of 104.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.18 to 7.94. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,193 tons to 65,917 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 19,325 tons to 81,500 tons, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 113,200 tons, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) rebounded weakly, with a weekly increase of 0.87%, closing at 22,515 yuan/ton. LME zinc also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.83%, closing at 2,834 dollars/ton. In the spot market, after the zinc price rebounded, downstream purchasing weakened, and the market remained dull. As of August 8th, LME zinc inventory decreased, while SHFE and social inventories increased. In terms of the macro - environment, the US economic data was mixed, and domestic import and export data in July exceeded expectations with positive changes in inflation data [6][7][8] Industry News - As of August 8th, the average weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and that for imported zinc concentrates increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government. Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q2 2025 was 251,600 tons, 19% higher than in Q2 2024, and its 2025 self - owned zinc production guidance was adjusted to 940,000 - 980,000 tons [12] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, price ratios, spot and LME premium/discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, smelter profits, refined zinc production and import/export, and downstream enterprise开工率 [13][15][17]

Group 1: Zinc Market Overview - Zinc prices have entered a downward trend due to a relaxed supply side and disappointing demand expectations in the U.S. macroeconomic environment [1] - The U.S. tariff policy adjustments under the Trump administration are expected to lead to a long-term decline in the dollar, which will positively impact zinc prices [2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production has slightly decreased year-on-year due to declining ore grades, with future increases expected to be limited [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining production is anticipated to recover in the medium to long term, despite recent reductions due to weather and maintenance issues [2] - Domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase year-on-year, but the growth potential remains limited due to reduced imports from overseas smelters [3] - The overall supply of zinc ore is expected to continue growing, but the year-on-year increase will be relatively modest [2][3] Group 3: Demand Factors - Weak demand is observed in the construction sector, with significant declines in operating rates for cement and asphalt facilities [4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with new construction and completion areas showing a year-on-year decline [4] - The automotive sector is seeing growth driven by trade-in policies and promotions, which may support zinc demand in the medium to long term [4] Group 4: Price Outlook - The combination of a declining dollar and resilient macro data is expected to provide some support for zinc prices [5] - However, the ongoing increase in supply coupled with weak demand will lead to a more relaxed supply-demand structure, potentially putting downward pressure on prices [5] - The expected price range for zinc may shift downward, but the space for decline is expected to be narrower than before due to limited supply growth and macroeconomic support [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved the registration of three products, allowing them to be used for futures contract delivery starting from the date of the announcement [1] Group 1: Product Registrations - Jiangsu Binxin Steel Group Co., Ltd. has received approval for the registration of its "Xinyong Special Steel" brand wire rod products [1] - Henan Jinli Jinxin Co., Ltd. has been granted registration for its "Jijin" brand zinc ingots, with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, adhering to standard pricing [1] - Yunnan Xinyu Nonferrous Electrolytic Co., Ltd. has had its "Yunxiang" brand tin ingots registered, with a registered production capacity of 6,000 tons, also following standard pricing [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751) has stated that it is currently not involved in any investment planning for mining activities [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on July 29 via an interactive platform [1]