中化新网讯 8月28日，埃塞俄比亚政府战略投资机构埃塞俄比亚投资控股公司(EIH)与尼日利亚丹格特 集团宣布，将合作在埃塞俄比亚戈德市投资25亿美元，建设一座尿素肥料综合体。 该项目还包括建设一条从Calub和Hilala气田输送天然气的管道。EIH预计建设周期为40个月，但未透露 具体开工时间和计划完工日期。 EIH首席执行官布鲁克·塔耶表示："该项目完全契合埃塞俄比亚发展优先方向，将大幅提升农业生产 力，同时推动埃塞俄比亚成为区域化肥生产中心。通过专用管道基础设施利用国内Hilala和Calub天然气 资源，可确保未来数十年的能源安全和成本竞争力。" EIH表示，其将持有该合资企业40%的股份，丹格特集团持有剩余60%股份。根据新签署的全面股东协 议，EIH与丹格特将共同出资、建设和运营该设施。EIH称，协议还规划了未来在氨基肥料生产领域的 潜在扩建、升级及新项目计划。 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea September 2025 Monthly Report: Supply-Demand Shift, Price Range May Widen [1] - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of urea are both changing. The supply is expected to increase with capacity expansion and increased daily production in September, while demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm changes, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Market Review - In August, the urea futures price oscillated, briefly surging before falling back. On August 29, the Urea 01 contract closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the end of July. The spot price was firm but actual trading was weak. On August 29, the Henan market price was 1,727 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the end of July [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - In August, the number of urea production device overhauls increased, and the operating rate first rose and then fell. By the end of the month, the operating rate was 81.73%, down 3.2 percentage points from the end of last month. The operating rate of natural gas - based urea continued to decline, reaching 71.8% at the end of the month, down 6.82 percentage points from the end of last month [9]. - In August, three new production capacities were put into operation, with a total of 200,000 tons from Shandong Jinkong Riyue New Materials Co., Ltd., 1 million tons from Xinjiang Xinji Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., and 800,000 tons from Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Chemical Co., Ltd. From January to August 2025, the total new urea production capacity put into operation was about 4.4 million tons [9]. - In August, the daily average urea output was still higher than the historical value, ranging from a minimum of 189,800 tons to a maximum of 194,400 tons, and currently maintaining at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The estimated urea output in August was 6.0605 million tons, a decrease of 27,500 tons month - on - month and an increase of 829,500 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated urea output was 48.154 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.68 million tons year - on - year, with a supply growth rate of 13.37% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - In August, the market price of anthracite first rose and then stabilized. The average monthly gross profit margin of coal - based urea was estimated to be 2.58%, a decrease of 5.68 percentage points month - on - month and 3.66 percentage points year - on - year. The estimated average monthly gross profit margin of gas - based urea in July was - 10.03%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points month - on - month and 14.05 percentage points year - on - year [16]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 41.455 million tons, an increase of about 4.428 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In August 2025, the urea production - sales ratio was maintained at 95.4% - 96.6%, at a relatively high level [19]. 3.5 Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - In 2024, the national grain sown area was 1.79 billion mu, an increase of 5.258 million mu from the previous year, a growth of 0.3%, and it has been increasing for five consecutive years. With the construction of high - standard farmland, the single - yield level of grain is expected to be effectively improved. The demand for summer fertilizers such as rice and corn is being released [21]. 3.6 Urea Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In August, the operating rate of compound fertilizers first rose and then fell. The estimated output of compound fertilizers in August was 4.76 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons month - on - month and a decrease of 770,000 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the estimated output of compound fertilizers was 33.62 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In September, it is expected to gradually enter the peak sales season, and the probability of dealers' centralized pick - up will increase [27]. - In August, the average operating rate of melamine enterprises in China was 54.36%, a decrease of 7.06 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly output was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons from the previous month [30]. 3.7 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to July 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 22.83 million tons, an increase of 7.156 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 45.65%. The export volume of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen fertilizers was 12.33 million tons, an increase of 3.767 million tons year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 43.99%. The urea export volume was 644,000 tons, an increase of 426,700 tons year - on - year [33]. 3.8 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of August, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.003 million tons, an increase of 246,000 tons from the beginning of the month, changing from destocking to inventory accumulation. At the end of August, the urea port inventory was 790,000 tons, an increase of 270,000 tons from the end of last month. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6,473, equivalent to 129,460 tons of urea, an increase of 64,800 tons from the end of last month [35][38]. 3.9 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: There is still an expectation of continuous urea capacity release. The concentrated overhaul period of coal - based urea devices has passed. Although the overall operating rate of gas - based devices is lower than in previous years, the overall urea supply may maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, and the daily average urea output will maintain at the level of 190,000 - 200,000 tons. - Demand: (1) Agricultural demand: The concentrated fertilization period for summer harvest and sowing is over, and other agricultural fertilization is sporadic. (2) Industrial demand: Compound fertilizers are in the pre - sale stage of autumn fertilizers. As the pre - sale progresses, the operating rate of fertilizer enterprises will gradually increase in the second half of the month, and the production of autumn fertilizers will start. In September, it is the traditional sales stage of compound fertilizers. In the middle and late ten days, the pick - up volume of dealers will increase, and the production of fertilizer enterprises will also increase simultaneously. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. (3) Export demand: The urea export volume in July was lower than expected, while the urea port inventory exceeded the previous export peak level. It is expected that the export volume will be concentrated in August - September. - Market outlook: Recently, the number of urea device overhauls has decreased, and the supply has recovered month - on - month, with the daily output running at 190,000 - 200,000 tons. The agricultural fertilization demand is sporadic. After the continuous increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, it began to decline. The peak operating rate of compound fertilizers is lower than in previous years. It is expected that the progress of compound fertilizers this year will be delayed, and other industrial demand will remain stable. The downstream of urea continues to hold a wait - and - see attitude, and the limited actual transactions have led to continuous inventory accumulation of enterprises. In September, with capacity release and expected increase in daily output, the demand will also gradually show an increasing trend. Both supply and demand are changing, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes. It is expected that the price fluctuation range may expand. Key points to focus on include urea capacity release, urea device production cuts and overhauls, compound fertilizer operating rate, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [41].

Core Insights - The company, Si Er Te (002538.SZ), reported a revenue of 2.183 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.15%, primarily driven by increased sales of phosphate fertilizers [1] - However, net profit saw a significant decline of 43.60%, dropping to 95.18 million yuan, with net cash flow from operating activities decreasing by 62.04% to 94.35 million yuan [1] - The profit decline is attributed to soaring international sulfur prices, which have led to a substantial increase in raw material costs, including sulfur and sulfuric acid, as well as significant price hikes in potash fertilizers, thereby squeezing gross margins [1] Financial Performance - Revenue: 2.183 billion yuan, up 7.15% year-on-year [1] - Net Profit: 95.18 million yuan, down 43.60% year-on-year [1] - Operating Cash Flow: 94.35 million yuan, down 62.04% [1] Corporate Governance Concerns - The authenticity of the financial report has been questioned by independent directors, who abstained from voting, citing concerns over the potential impact of an ongoing criminal investigation involving a former executive of a wholly-owned subsidiary [1] - The independent director highlighted that there may be other fictitious transactions affecting the financial statements beyond the scope identified in the administrative regulatory measures [1] - The company has previously faced corrective measures from the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau due to issues related to fictitious business operations from 2021 to 2023, with potential for further expansion of the amounts involved [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Batian Co., Ltd., reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased sales of phosphate rock and fertilizer products, indicating a strong performance in a high-demand industry [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.93% [1] - Total profit reached 600 million yuan, up 237.1% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 456 million yuan, reflecting a 203.71% increase [1] - Net cash flow from operating activities was 754 million yuan, a growth of 224.05% [1] - The company announced a mid-term cash dividend of 1.6 yuan per share, totaling 155 million yuan, to reward shareholders for strong performance [1][6]. Industry Dynamics - The company is leveraging high-quality phosphate resources in Guizhou to enhance its production capabilities and expand its product offerings in the phosphate fertilizer sector [2][4]. - The small Gaozhai phosphate mine achieved a production capacity of 2 million tons in October 2024 and received a safety production license in February 2025, marking a significant increase in production capacity [2]. - The company reported a substantial increase in phosphate production, with sales revenue from phosphate mining reaching 998 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 455.79% [2]. Competitive Advantage - The company has established an integrated industrial layout that combines upstream phosphate production with downstream high-purity phosphate chemical development, enhancing its competitive edge [4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in patent applications, with a total of 1,482 patents filed, including 815 invention patents, indicating strong R&D capabilities [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to a cash dividend policy, aiming to distribute at least 60% of cumulative distributable profits over the years 2024 to 2026 [5]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio for 2024 is projected at 65.98%, with a dividend yield of 3.21%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for urea is to trade sideways, and the medium - term situation depends on policies. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. Although the fundamental pressure on urea is high and domestic demand transactions are weak, due to potential policy changes, market investment in urea is conservative. In the long - term, the terminal value expectation of the urea 01 contract remains weak, and fundamentals are the long - cycle main contradiction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. The total new capacity in 2024 was 427 million tons, and the expected new capacity in 2025 is 346 million tons [25]. - **Production**: This week (20250821 - 0827), China's urea production was 1.3492 million tons, a decrease of 0.0119 million tons from the previous period, a 0.87% decrease. Next week, China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.28 - 1.29 million tons, a significant decrease from this period [3]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [33][39]. - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The second - batch export quota has been confirmed, and exports in August and September are expected to remain high, but the second - batch export transactions are slow due to price limits [3][45]. 3.2 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. Currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate of top - dressing demand has declined significantly [3][51][53]. - **Industrial Demand**: - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry currently has high production and sales pressure, low operating rates, and limited demand for urea raw materials, with low acceptance of high - priced urea [3]. - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate are presented in the report, showing certain fluctuations [60][61][62]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports show resilience [63]. 3.3 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On August 27, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 0.0619 million tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. The total inventory shows an upward trend [69]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025 (Week 35), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous period, a 19.76% increase. The port inventory shows an upward trend [69]. 3.4 Valuation The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (both domestic and international), showing the price trends and spreads of urea in different periods and regions [6][10][16][21]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The UR2601 contract will trade sideways in the short - term, with resistance at 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton and support at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is recommended to short at around 1800 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period Spread**: Reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None is recommended currently [3].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年6月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为76万吨，同比下降20.2%，进口金 额为2.58亿美元，同比下降20.1%，2025年6月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为428万吨，同比增长 45.2%，出口金额为13.55亿美元，同比增长59.5%。 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥进口情况统计图 ...

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期芭田股份（002170）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入25.43亿元，同比上升63.93%，归母净利润4.56亿元，同比上升203.71%。按单季度数据看，第二季度 营业总收入14.31亿元，同比上升59.94%，第二季度归母净利润2.85亿元，同比上升192.98%。本报告期 芭田股份盈利能力上升，毛利率同比增幅45.71%，净利率同比增幅84.83%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现尚佳。其中，毛利率34.86%，同比增45.71%，净利率17.95%，同比 增84.83%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计1.68亿元，三费占营收比6.61%，同比减35.94%，每股 净资产3.83元，同比增31.68%，每股经营性现金流0.78元，同比增199.47%，每股收益0.47元，同比增 180.75% 证券之星价投圈财报分析工具显示： 业务评价：公司去年的ROIC为9.96%，资本回报率一般。去年的净利率为12.38%，算上全部成本后， 公司产品或服务的附加值高。从历史年报数据统计来看，公司近10年来中位数ROIC为4.04%，中位投资 回报较弱，其中最惨年份 ...

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期司尔特(002538)发布2025年中报。根据财报显示，司尔特增收不增利。 截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入21.83亿元，同比上升7.15%，归母净利润9518.08万元，同比下降 43.6%。按单季度数据看，第二季度营业总收入11.02亿元，同比下降10.29%，第二季度归母净利润 5730.18万元，同比下降37.51%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率13.62%，同比减33.21%，净利率4.36%，同比减 47.36%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计9870.33万元，三费占营收比4.52%，同比减23.39%，每股 净资产6.22元，同比减0.05%，每股经营性现金流0.11元，同比减62.04%，每股收益0.11元，同比减 45.0% 证券之星价投圈财报分析工具显示：业务评价：公司去年的ROIC为5.44%，资本回报率一般。去年的净 利率为7.27%，算上全部成本后，公司产品或服务的附加值一般。从历史年报数据统计来看，公司近10 年来中位数ROIC为6.73%，中位投资回报较弱，其中最惨年份2023年的ROIC为1.82%，投资回报一般。 公司历史 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 14.72 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, also showing a 5.0% increase, meeting expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.72 billion RMB, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, which is a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share reached 0.15 RMB, marking a 5.0% year-on-year growth [1]. Business Segments - The company's core business segments achieved significant growth, with revenues from basic, growth, and production businesses reaching 7.56 billion, 5.86 billion, and 1.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 5.4%, and 4.2% [2]. - The basic business, which includes strategic procurement of potassium, phosphorus, and sulfur fertilizers, played a crucial role in stabilizing domestic agricultural supply and prices [2]. - The growth business, focusing on bio-composite fertilizers and specialty fertilizers, saw a 51% increase in high-end fertilizer sales, with notable core products gaining brand influence [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits to reach 1.23 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.59 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.7%, and 12.1% respectively [3]. - The upward revision of performance forecasts is attributed to rising domestic potassium prices and sustained high growth in bio-fertilizers [3]. - The target price has been raised to 1.8 HKD, corresponding to an 8.2 times forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 7.56% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 14.715 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 5.04% to 1.104 billion yuan, driven by strong performance in its core business segments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the core business segment was 10.107 billion yuan, up 29.9% year-on-year, contributing a profit of 719 million yuan, which is a 53.3% increase, mainly due to optimized strategic procurement and diversified purchasing channels [1] - The growth business segment generated revenue of 7.753 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with a profit contribution of 420 million yuan, reflecting a 5.4% rise, driven by increased sales of differentiated compound fertilizers, particularly the "Bio+" high-end products, which saw a 51% year-on-year sales increase [1] - The production business segment reported revenue of 3.202 billion yuan, an 8.4% increase year-on-year, but profit decreased by 15.6% to 301 million yuan, primarily due to rising raw material prices and a decline in urea market prices [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Development - The company implemented a premium differentiated product strategy, achieving total sales of 4.74 million tons, a 1.72% increase year-on-year, with differentiated product sales reaching 1.5 million tons, up 13.64% [2] - In terms of "Bio+" research and development, the company established a new biological technology research model, with three core biotechnologies reaching the application stage, and launched new biological fertilizers "Zhi Yang" and "Huan Feng" [2] - The conversion of research achievements reached 1.01 million tons, with high-end product conversion volume increasing by 59% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.35 billion yuan, 1.48 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 6.6, 6.1, and 5.6 times [2] - The company is characterized as a high-dividend state-owned enterprise, with improvements in product structure enhancing profitability and the "Bio+" strategy accelerating implementation, supported by rich phosphate reserves, indicating promising future growth [2]