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兴业期货日度策略-20250620
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:42
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]
亚玛顿: 第五届董事会第二十一次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-20 09:22
Group 1 - The company held its 21st meeting of the 5th Board of Directors on June 16, 2025, with all 7 directors present, either in person or via telecommunication [1] - The Board approved a proposal to provide a guarantee for its subsidiary, Benxi Yamaton New Materials Co., Ltd., for a bank loan of 10 million yuan, with the company providing a guarantee of 5.1 million yuan based on its 51% ownership [2] - The Board also approved the convening of the 2025 First Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders, scheduled for July 7, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The loan from Shengjing Bank is intended to meet the daily operational needs of the subsidiary [2] - The proposal for the guarantee will be submitted for approval at the upcoming shareholders' meeting [2] - The company ensures that the information disclosed is true, accurate, and complete, with no false records or misleading statements [1]
亚玛顿: 关于为控股子公司提供担保的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-20 09:18
证券代码:002623 证券简称:亚玛顿 公告编号:2025-029 ? 被担保方亚玛顿(本溪)新材料有限公司(以下简称"本溪亚玛顿")为 常州亚玛顿股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")合并报表范围内的控股子公司。 ? 被担保方本溪亚玛顿最近一期经审计资产负债率超过 70%,请投资者充 分关注担保风险。 一、担保情况概述 公司控股子公司本溪亚玛顿为满足日常经营需求,拟向盛京银行股份有限公 司本溪县支行申请综合授信,期限为一年,主要用于流动资金贷款,合计金额 保,即公司拟以持股比例 51%为本溪亚玛顿提供 510 万元的连带责任保证担保, 贷款剩余部分则由关联股东提供连带责任保证担保。 上述担保合同尚未签订,公司将授权公司管理层根据公司经营计划和资金安 排,办理具体相关事宜。 常州亚玛顿股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 本次担保事项已经公司 2025 年 6 月 20 日召开的第五届董事会第二十一次会 议审议通过。根据中国证监会和深圳证券交易所的有关法律、法规及《公司章程》 《对外担保管理办法》等有关规定,鉴于被担保方本溪亚玛 ...
短期供需格局难有改善 玻璃期价低位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-20 08:42
Core Viewpoint - Glass futures have shown a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1021.00 yuan and closing at 1007.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.31% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Century Futures indicates that glass prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with no substantial positive factors in the fundamentals. The current weak trend in glass spot prices is expected to continue, with daily melting volume dropping below 156,000 tons in the short term due to both production line ignition and shutdown [2] - Hualian Futures notes that the glass market is in a demand off-season, with companies reducing prices to stimulate sales. Inventory levels are slightly fluctuating at high levels, and the short-term supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve, leading to continued downward pressure on glass prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures highlights a significant decline in real estate completions from January to May, with a 5% decrease in downstream processing orders in mid-June compared to historical levels. The overall glass demand is expected to remain weak, with continued inventory accumulation upstream and a lack of significant drivers for price recovery [3] Group 2: Production and Inventory - New Century Futures reports that the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises remains high compared to the same period in the past two years, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] - Hualian Futures mentions that one production line has been shut down, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates, while inventory levels have increased slightly in most regions, except for slight reductions in Central and Eastern China [3] - Zhonghui Futures states that the current production and daily melting volume are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with costs decreasing and market prices below production costs, indicating a low valuation despite weak fundamentals [3]
耀皮玻璃:子公司大连耀皮玻璃生产线将于2025年6月23日起停产实施升级改造
news flash· 2025-06-20 07:34
耀皮玻璃(600819)公告,全资子公司大连耀皮玻璃有限公司浮法玻璃生产线将于2025年6月23日起停 产,实施熔窑节能升级及浮法玻璃生产线自动化改造项目。升级改造原因为设备损耗,能耗加大,可能 影响熔窑安全运行。改造项目已通过董事会审议,预计对公司核心竞争力及新质生产力体系构建产生积 极影响。 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:20
产业:厂库累库,交割库去库,整体累库 | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/20 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/19 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/18 | | | | | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/18 | | 2025/6/19 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -9.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 981.0 | 980.0 | 998.0 | 17.0 | 18.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1040.0 | 1038.0 | 1055.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20250619
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:49
现货:重碱河北交割库现货报价在170左右,沙河库1210左右 产业:厂库累库。远兴超产 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm(折5mm) 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1096 1104 1087 980 953 980 997 1038 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/18) 昨日(6/17) 一周前(6/11) 一月前(5/19) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润(气) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃:河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 20 ...
大越期货玻璃早报-20250619
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With production profit at a low level, industry cold repairs increasing,开工率 and output dropping to historical lows, while terminal demand remains weak and factory inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term expectation is for the glass price to mainly fluctuate at a low level [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 980 yuan/ton, showing a 0.62% increase from the previous value. The spot price of the safety large board in Shahe remains unchanged at 1044 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - The profit of coal production lines for glass production has rebounded, the loss of natural gas production lines has narrowed, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [19]. Production - side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.57%. The number of operating production lines and the daily melting volume are at historical lows for the same period [23][25]. Demand - side of Fundamentals - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [29][4]. Inventory - side of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.685 million weight boxes, a 0.10% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the surplus is 1.51 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [45].
旗滨集团: 株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司独立董事专门会议制度(2025年6月修订)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-18 10:45
株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司 独立董事专门会议制度 第一条 为充分发挥独立董事在董事会中参与决策、监督制衡、专业咨询等职能, 进一步完善株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")的治理结构,保护中小股东 及利益相关者的利益,促进公司的规范运作,根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民 共和国证券法》《上市公司独立董事管理办法》《上市公司治理准则》《上海证券交易 所股票上市规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号-规范运作》等法律、 法规和规范性文件及《公司章程》《独立董事工作制度》的有关规定,并结合公司实际 情况,制定本制度。 第二条 独立董事是指不在公司担任除董事及董事会专门委员会委员外的其他职 务,并与公司及其主要股东、实际控制人不存在直接或间接利害关系,或者其他可能影 响其进行独立客观判断关系的董事。 第三条 公司董事会成员共九名,其中独立董事三名,独立董事占董事会成员的 比例不低于三分之一,包括一名会计专业人士。 第四条 独立董事专门会议是指全部由独立董事参加的专门会议。独立董事专门 会议对所议事项进行独立研讨,从维护公司整体利益和保护中小股东合法权益的角度进 行思考判断,并且形成明确的讨论意 ...
旗滨集团: 北京大成(广州)律师事务所关于株洲旗滨集团股份有限公司差异化分红事项的法律意见书
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-18 10:45
Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion issued by Beijing Dentons (Guangzhou) Law Firm confirms the legality and compliance of Zhuzhou Qibin Group Co., Ltd.'s differentiated dividend distribution plan for the year 2024, ensuring it does not harm the interests of the company and its shareholders [6]. Group 1: Differentiated Dividend Distribution - The differentiated dividend distribution is necessitated by the remaining shares in the company's repurchase account, which will not participate in profit distribution [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.045 yuan per share (including tax) based on a total profit of approximately 382.59 million yuan for the year 2024 [4][5]. - The total number of shares eligible for the dividend distribution is estimated to be 2,658,029,333 shares, resulting in a total cash dividend payout of approximately 119.61 million yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Legal Compliance and Calculations - The legal opinion confirms that the repurchased shares will not participate in profit distribution, leading to a difference between the total number of shares on the record date and the actual shares participating in the distribution [5][6]. - The calculation for the differentiated dividend includes a virtual cash dividend of approximately 0.0446 yuan per share, with minimal impact on the ex-dividend price [5]. - The absolute impact on the ex-dividend reference price is calculated to be only 0.0076%, indicating a negligible effect [5].