据农业农村部畜牧兽医局局长黄保续称，下一步，农业农村部将重点抓好两方面工作，促进生猪生产稳 定发展。一是调产能。加密发布市场预警信息，引导有序出栏，加快淘汰低产母猪和弱仔猪，适应性调 整产能，促进供需均衡。二是稳政策。落实地方生猪稳产稳价责任，优化生猪产能调控措施，抓好非洲 猪瘟常态化防控，牢牢守住不发生区域性重大动物疫情的底线。 7月17日当周，全国外三元生猪出栏均重为123.49公斤，较上周微降0.01公斤，环比降幅0.01%，刷新近 5个月低点，依然高于去年同期，同比涨幅为0.11%。 分析观点： 东海期货研报：7月上旬从样本统计的集团场计划出栏完成情况看，头部企业确实在带头压栏惜售，出 栏体重小幅增加。月中旬，供应有恢复，淡季屠宰量也在主动收缩，猪价开始丝滑回落。二育也就在6 月中旬集中补栏一波，栏舍利用率增加，这些正常将在8月相对集中出栏。需求8月下旬或有增量，目前 至8月初，预期猪价持续承压风险增加，猪价暂关注14元/kg支撑。 （7月18日）全国生猪价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种: ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongrui Co., Ltd. has received an additional quota for exporting live pigs to Hong Kong and Macau for the year 2025, indicating a positive development in its export capabilities [1] Summary by Category Company Developments - Dongrui Co., Ltd. announced that it has received a letter from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce, granting an additional quota of 72,746 live pigs for export to Hong Kong and 343 live pigs for export to Macau for the year 2025 [1] - As of the announcement date, the company has accumulated a total quota of 199,618 live pigs for Hong Kong and 996 live pigs for Macau for the year 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the summer grain production in 2025 is projected to reach 299.48 billion jin, making it the second highest yield in history, following 2024 [1][3] - The agricultural economy is running smoothly and positively, with stable summer grain production and increasing farmer income [7] - The first half of the year saw a 6.2% year-on-year increase in rural residents' per capita disposable income, reaching 11,936 yuan [5] Group 2 - The summer oilseed crops have seen increases in area, yield, and total production [3] - The supply of "vegetable basket" products is sufficient, with a total meat production of 48.43 million tons in the first half of the year, reflecting a 2.8% year-on-year growth [12] - The area planted with vegetables has increased by over 1.1 million mu compared to the previous year, ensuring stable supply and prices for urban and rural residents [12] Group 3 - The successful achievement of the 2025 grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin will depend on the autumn grain harvest, which is expected to see a slight increase in area [10] - The overall growth trend for autumn crops is favorable, indicating a positive outlook for future grain production [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, the demand side lacks obvious short - term stimulus. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related purchases, sales, and storage, as well as the "anti - involution" policy, need to be monitored. Recent price increases were due to expected improvements after last month's weight reduction, and later supply - side slaughter changes and policy situations should be continuously monitored [2] - For the egg market, the current demand remains in the off - season normal state. Cold storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Although the plum rain season in southern sales areas is about to end, the post - poned Mid - Autumn Festival has limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,060 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.36%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog price in Henan was 14.30 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" on July 17 was 112.86, up 0.11 points from the previous day. The national average wholesale price of pork was 20.63 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 63.76 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.53 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; eggs were 7.06 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; and white - striped chickens were 17.29 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - With the expected increase in future supply, the spot price is likely to decline. In the seasonal consumption off - season, demand lacks short - term stimulus. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related purchases, sales, and storage and the "anti - involution" policy need attention. Recent price increases were due to expected improvements after weight reduction, and later supply - side slaughter changes and policy situations should be monitored [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3,595 yuan/500 kilograms, up 4 yuan (+0.11%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 2.69 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan. On July 17, the national production - link inventory was 0.53 days, down 0.16 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days, down 0.18 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand remains in the off - season normal state. Cold storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Although the plum rain season in southern sales areas is about to end, the post - poned Mid - Autumn Festival has limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] Strategy - Adopt a cautiously bearish strategy [5]

Group 1 - The average weight of live pigs for slaughter has slightly decreased, reaching a five-month low [1] - As industry expectations decline, some large-scale farms in the south are reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter, but the impact on average weight is limited due to high temperatures affecting both northern and southern regions [1] - According to Mysteel, the average weight of external three yuan live pigs for the week of July 17 was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week, representing a week-on-week decline of 0.01%, but still showing a year-on-year increase of 0.11% [1]

Report Summary Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Reality Confirmation" and was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms haven't increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, causing a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. It's necessary to wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices: Henan is 14,480 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), Sichuan is 13,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and Guangdong is 15,790 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton) - Futures prices: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 13,750 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,058 lots (down 22,326 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 5,818 lots (down 4,996 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 3,535 lots (down 1,180 lots) - Open interest: The open interest of the pig 2509 contract is 64,811 lots (down 4,190 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 44,174 lots (down 216 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 23,240 lots (up 252 lots) [3] Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 420 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 945 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 730 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) - Inter - contract spreads: The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 525 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton), and the 11 - 1 spread is - 215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, which is in the neutral range within the [-2, 2] interval [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Currently, the group's pig出栏量 has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. From mid - to late July, large - scale pig - farming enterprises may increase their supply to meet monthly targets. With demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to face further pressure. In the medium - to long - term, pig supply will increase, but anti - cut - throat competition initiatives and strengthened environmental protection policies are favorable for long - term pig prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive candle. The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,060 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,275 lots to 160,859 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and farmers reduced the number of pigs for sale. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 131,600 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig出栏量 of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. The出栏量 may be slightly adjusted down. In the early part of the month, enterprises temporarily held back pigs and reduced the number of pigs for sale, but now the出栏 progress has recovered. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [8]. 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The incremental supply of the underlying market is limited, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. After the spot market digests the mid - month selling pressure, there is still a possibility of a price increase in August, but it may be difficult to reach a new high. The futures price has obvious support due to the discount, and it is advisable to focus on buying the 09 contract on dips [2][10][15]. - Fourth quarter: The market will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation realization period. The replenishment of retail farmers' stalls and the increase in basic supply will add pressure to the pre - Spring Festival market. The futures market has already factored in the expectations in advance, and the premium for distant contracts is insufficient. For off - season contracts such as 11, it is better to wait for a rebound for hedging or short - selling, rather than chasing the low price [2][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fewer Than Expected - In the first half of the year, the pig market went against the consensus. Although the production capacity was increasing, due to early risk control since the end of last year, the slaughter volume was released in advance, and the market did not accumulate frozen products in advance. As a result, the bearish expectations after the Spring Festival failed to materialize. The data used in trading was more bearish and distorted compared to the actual situation [4]. 3.2 Short - term May Still Have Inventory Accumulation Space - Since May, as retail farmers completed inventory reconstruction after the Spring Festival and large - scale farms needed to reduce weight in hot weather, the spot price fell. However, in late June, due to the supply gap caused by the piglet epidemic at the beginning of the year, the supply decreased, and the pig price rose again in early July, with the average price in Henan rising by nearly 11% [6]. - From early July to now, the market has been hesitant again. But due to limited supply growth and improved expectations of retail farmers, the spot price has pressure but is unlikely to drop significantly. In August, the spot price may rise again but is unlikely to reach a new high, and the futures price has support [7][10]. 3.3 Focus on the Upper Pressure in the Fourth Quarter - Although the market's inventory - reduction expectation has not been fulfilled in the first half of the year, inventory accumulation has actually occurred and may be concentratedly realized in the second half of the year. - Compared with 2023, there are differences in the degree of early production - capacity clearance, the support of retail farmers' stalls, and the futures market's long - term expectations. The spot price may be sluggish after the seasonal rebound from August to September [14].

Group 1 - The national summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, marking the second highest production year in history, following last year [2] - The production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat in the first half of the year was 48.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while milk production grew by 0.5% [2] - The per capita disposable income of rural residents in the first half of the year was 11,936 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 6.2% after accounting for price factors [2] Group 2 - Summer grain production has been stable and abundant, benefiting from timely and effective drought response measures and increased agricultural disaster resilience [3] - The central government allocated 1.6 billion yuan early to support wheat production and 376 million yuan for drought relief [3] - Major grain-producing provinces such as Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan saw increases in production by 410 million jin, 360 million jin, and 220 million jin respectively [3] Group 3 - Autumn grain production, which accounts for three-quarters of the annual grain output, is crucial for achieving the target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for this year [4] - The area for autumn grain is expected to increase slightly compared to last year, particularly for high-yield crops like corn [4] - The implementation of the rural revitalization strategy has significantly improved agricultural production and enhanced the sense of gain, happiness, and security among farmers [4] Group 4 - The value added of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry above designated size grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5] - Over 300,000 new projects were added to the rural construction project library in the first half of the year, with project funding exceeding 100 billion yuan [5] - Continuous improvement in rural living conditions and governance effectiveness has been observed [5]

Group 1: Importance of Pastoral Development - Pastoral areas hold a strategic position in China's economic and social development, with significant emphasis from the central government on ecological protection and upgrading the livestock industry [1][3] - High-quality development in pastoral regions is crucial for ensuring the effective supply of livestock products, promoting comprehensive economic and social development, and enhancing food security [3][4] Group 2: Economic Highlights and Achievements - The GDP of pastoral regions has shown steady growth, with notable increases in 2024: Xinjiang at 20,534.08 billion yuan (6.1% growth), Tibet at 2,764.94 billion yuan (6.3% growth), and Gansu at 13,002.9 billion yuan (5.8% growth) [6] - Infrastructure improvements have been significant, with Inner Mongolia's infrastructure investment growing by 23.8% in 2024 and Tibet's agricultural fixed asset investment increasing by 21.2% [6] - Livestock production has expanded, with Inner Mongolia's beef output reaching 891,000 tons (14.5% growth) in 2024, and Tibet's livestock population increasing by 389,300 heads [6] Group 3: Policy Measures and Support - A series of policies have been implemented to promote pastoral development, including ecological protection subsidies and support for modern agricultural industry parks [4][5] - Financial support for high-quality livestock development in Inner Mongolia amounts to over 260 million yuan by 2025, while Xinjiang has introduced a transformation plan for grassland livestock from 2023 to 2030 [5] Group 4: Ecological Improvement and Cultural Significance - Grassland ecosystems are vital for the balance of the "grass-livestock-people" system, with improvements in grassland ecology directly impacting livestock health and productivity [8][9] - The restoration of grassland ecology has led to a historical shift from overall degradation to improvement, with an average annual grassland restoration area exceeding 4 million acres since the 14th Five-Year Plan [10][11] Group 5: Technological and Innovative Approaches - The integration of digital technologies, such as AI and satellite monitoring, is transforming traditional pastoral management into a more precise and efficient system [12][18] - Innovative practices in livestock breeding and grassland management are being explored, including the establishment of a breeding system for high-quality forage and livestock [17] Group 6: Cultural Tourism Development - The cultural tourism industry is becoming a key area for economic development in pastoral regions, combining traditional livestock farming with modern tourism and cultural industries [19][20] - The shift from small-scale tourism to comprehensive industry chain development is evident, with initiatives to enhance the experience of visitors and promote local culture [20][22]