Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the discretionary cosmetics industry Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival showed robust growth, with total sales across integrated e-commerce, instant retail, and community group buying reaching 855.6 billion yuan, 29.6 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 18.7%, and -9.1% [1][17] - The overall transaction volume of major platforms increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with Taobao/Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou accounting for 48.7%, 19.3%, 18.4%, 10.1%, and 3.6% of GMV respectively [1][17] - The beauty category on major e-commerce platforms achieved a GMV of 60-70 billion yuan during the 618 period, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the 618 festival from May 13 to June 18, 2025, reached 855.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% across major platforms [1][17] - Tmall's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10% year-on-year, with 453 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% increase [2][18] Platform Insights - Douyin saw over 60,000 brands doubling their transaction amounts year-on-year, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [2][18] - JD.com led the industry with over 100% growth in user orders, achieving a record high in daily active users [2][18] Market Share and Brand Rankings - Tmall maintained a 41.3% market share in the beauty category, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD.com at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][19] - The top brands in the beauty and skincare category on Tmall included Pechoin, Lancôme, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Skinceuticals, with Skinceuticals entering the top five for the first time [1][19] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the makeup and perfume category was intense, with YSL topping the list, followed by Caitang and Mao Ge Ping [1][19] - On Douyin, the beauty and skincare category saw 34 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a significant increase of 88.9% year-on-year [1][20]

Group 1: Labubu 3.0 and Pop Mart - Labubu 3.0 series has launched global pre-sales, with expected sales exceeding 500 million yuan based on a supply of 4-5 million units at a price of 99 yuan each [2] - The secondary market has seen a significant drop in prices for Labubu products, with resale values for blind box sets plummeting from 1500-2800 yuan to 650-800 yuan [2] - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped 12.11% to 239.60 HKD per share, marking a new low since June 3 [2][3] Group 2: Pop Mart's Strategic Response - Analysts have expressed concerns about Pop Mart's valuation, suggesting it lacks a competitive moat due to the short lifespan of its IP and weak pricing power compared to global operators like Disney [3] - In response to market challenges, Pop Mart is optimizing its sales mechanism to allow more genuine fans to purchase Labubu products [3] - The company has announced the establishment of a film studio to expand its IP beyond toys, with an animated series titled "LABUBU and Friends" in the pipeline [3] Group 3: Lao Pu Gold's Global Expansion - Lao Pu Gold is opening its first overseas store in Singapore, aiming to position itself as a luxury brand alongside established names like Louis Vuitton and Hermes [4] - The brand's strategy includes focusing on the Chinese cultural sphere in Southeast Asia, with plans to open four stores in the region by 2026 [5] - Lao Pu Gold plans to introduce localized products that incorporate local cultural elements, such as Christian-themed items in the Singapore store [5] Group 4: Walmart's Dominance in Retail - Walmart China has retained its position as the top supermarket chain with a sales figure of 158.845 billion yuan, equivalent to about two times the size of Hema [7] - Despite a reduction in the number of stores by 8.5% to 334, Walmart's sales have continued to grow, driven by the strong performance of Sam's Club [7] - In Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, Walmart China's net sales reached 6.7 billion USD (approximately 48.3 billion yuan), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [7] Group 5: NITORI's Market Challenges - NITORI has closed 21 stores in China, representing a 20% closure rate, as it faces challenges in the macroeconomic environment [10] - The brand has attempted to diversify its product offerings by introducing higher-frequency items like clothing and pet food, but competition in these categories is intense [11] - NITORI's rapid expansion plans have been curtailed due to the sluggish real estate market and overall consumer sentiment [10][11] Group 6: Three Squirrels' Acquisition Setback - Three Squirrels has terminated its acquisition of Love Snacks due to disagreements on core terms of the deal [13][15] - The company has been heavily reliant on online sales, with 69.73% of its revenue coming from online channels, highlighting its need to strengthen its offline presence [13] - The competitive landscape in the snack industry has intensified, prompting Three Squirrels to reassess its offline strategy amid slowing growth [14] Group 7: Marketing Innovations - Fujifilm's skincare brand ASTALIFT has launched a new sunscreen product that combines multiple functions, targeting young consumers [17] - Balenciaga has opened a flagship store in Beijing, introducing a limited-edition "Peking Duck" bag that sold out quickly, showcasing the brand's unique marketing strategy [19] - IKEA has released a new series of decorative lights designed in collaboration with Dutch designer Sabine Marcelis, emphasizing the role of light in home living [21] Group 8: Corporate Developments - Anta has appointed Yao Jian as the president of the Wolf Claw brand to oversee global operations following its acquisition [25] - The parent company of the Chinese makeup brand Orange has acquired the skincare brand Baizhi Cui, marking its entry into the skincare market [25] - Li Ning has hired Victor Herrero, a former executive from Zara, as the new CEO of Clarks, with a potential total compensation of up to 42 million yuan [26]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Water Sheep Group has adopted a "high-end, global" development strategy following the acquisition of luxury skincare brands RV and PA [2][3] - The company is positioned as the only Chinese beauty brand management group successfully managing multiple high-end and light luxury brands [2][3] - The company aims to build a global brand image matrix in major cities worldwide by 2027, with a focus on high-end channels, especially in Europe and the US [4][26] Group 2: Brand Performance and Growth - EDB, a French luxury skincare brand, has seen a 40% increase in sales through Tmall, with overall healthy growth in the first half of the year [2][3][6] - The brand's SPA services have achieved significant success, with a single purchase reaching 39,800 yuan, and appointments booked a month in advance [3][4] - RV brand has experienced over 100% growth in the US market, with significant social media engagement and product popularity [7][8] Group 3: Customer Loyalty and Sales Metrics - EDB's member repurchase rate is 50% over three years, contributing approximately 80% of the brand's revenue [6] - The average customer value for EDB is 5,000 yuan, indicating strong customer loyalty and brand resonance [6] - The company emphasizes quality growth over quantity, focusing on sustainable customer relationships rather than short-term sales spikes [5][6] Group 4: Future Plans and Market Expansion - EDB plans to open 50 SPA stores across China by 2027, with a focus on enhancing customer experience [4][24] - The company is exploring new product categories and expanding its product line to enhance brand offerings [18] - The strategy includes leveraging local teams for international markets, particularly in the US and France, while using agents for other regions [25][26] Group 5: Organizational Development and R&D - The company is investing in R&D and organizational development to support its global and high-end strategy, with centers in multiple countries [13][14] - Recruitment efforts focus on attracting top talent in R&D and brand management to enhance the company's capabilities [14] - The company believes in long-term investment in brand and organizational development to navigate market uncertainties [14]

Core Viewpoint - The retail landscape is shifting, with traditional beauty brands being replaced by new categories such as trendy toys, outdoor sports, and tea beverage brands, which are now dominating the first floor of shopping malls [4][5][7]. Group 1: Changing Retail Dynamics - The flagship store of Innisfree, a Korean beauty brand, was replaced by Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, highlighting a significant shift in consumer preferences [4]. - The emergence of the "Four Kings" (trendy toys, outdoor sports, new energy vehicles, and tea beverages) reflects a broader trend where traditional beauty counters are losing prominence in shopping malls [5][6]. - The vacancy rate in shopping malls, even in major cities, has approached 14%, providing an opportunity for the "Four Kings" to establish a presence [7]. Group 2: Impact on Beauty Brands - The number of beauty counters in China has decreased from 15,415 in 2020 to 11,365 in 2022, with low-end beauty counters experiencing the most significant decline [7]. - High-end beauty brands like Chanel and Lancôme continue to maintain their presence in malls despite overall declines in sales, as they contribute to the mall's image and customer traffic [8][9]. - The first floor of shopping malls serves as a "face" for the mall, influencing consumer perceptions and foot traffic [8]. Group 3: The Rise of New Categories - New energy vehicle brands have become a significant presence in shopping malls, with Tesla being a pioneer in this space [11][12]. - The tea beverage sector is rapidly evolving, with brands like Nayuki and Heytea adjusting their pricing strategies to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [15][16]. - The number of tea beverage brands is increasing, with some brands like Bawang Tea Ji opening nearly 3,000 new stores in 2024, indicating a strong expansion trend [16]. Group 4: Strategic Brand Positioning - Brands like Lululemon and Pop Mart are focusing on prime locations in high-end shopping malls, which enhances their brand visibility and consumer engagement [20][22]. - The "Bird Nest Plan" by brands like Arc'teryx emphasizes opening flagship stores in key urban areas, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-value locations [22][23]. - The competition for prime retail space is intensifying, with many mid-tier malls struggling to attract high-end brands, leading to a concentration of successful brands in top-tier malls [23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The retail environment remains unpredictable, with some brands thriving while others struggle to maintain their presence [24]. - Emerging brands like Mao Geping are successfully expanding in the offline market, demonstrating that opportunities still exist for brands that offer unique customer experiences [24]. - The future of the "Four Kings" and their potential replacements remains uncertain, as consumer preferences continue to evolve [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the rise of new consumption is a result of specific economic cycles and social changes, with optional consumption surpassing essential consumption in the US and Japan during key periods of economic transformation [1][2][3] - Historical experiences from the US stock market show that optional consumption sectors have significantly outperformed essential consumption sectors, particularly during the 1970s and post-2009, driven by factors such as rising disposable income and shifts in consumer behavior [1][2] - The financial characteristics of new consumption reveal that sectors within optional consumption have seen increasing debt ratios while effectively managing risks, leading to improved fundamentals and higher valuation premiums [2][3] Group 2 - The driving factors behind the shift from essential to optional consumption include continuous growth in disposable income, technological advancements, and changes in demographic structures and consumer attitudes, particularly among younger generations [3][4] - The market structure is evolving, with leading companies in optional consumption leveraging scale effects and brand advantages to consolidate their market positions, as evidenced by successful companies in Japan's toy, beauty, and gaming sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the experiences from the US and Japan can inform current investment strategies in the A-share market, focusing on sectors that meet diverse consumer needs and exhibit high growth potential [4][10]

Group 1 - The China-Turkey procurement matchmaking event for beauty, hairdressing, skincare, and packaging materials was held in Istanbul, organized by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce [1][3] - Over 120 companies from nearly 10 provinces in China, including Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu, participated in the event, covering an exhibition area of 1,200 square meters [3][5] - The event aims to enhance the integration of Chinese beauty and personal care companies into the Eurasian market, promoting cross-border cooperation and mutual development between Chinese and Turkish enterprises [5] Group 2 - Trade in hairdressing tools between China and Turkey is projected to reach $58.95 million in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.8% [3] - The trade value of beauty cosmetics and personal care products is expected to reach $46.775 million, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [3] - The Turkish International Beauty, Hairdressing, Skincare, and Packaging Exhibition is one of the most renowned events in the beauty industry in Turkey, with a history of twenty years and significant influence across the Middle East and various Asian and European countries [5]

Group 1: Company Overview - JINLIBAO is a leading company in the adhesive industry in China, known for its extensive experience and comprehensive database [2] - The company has faced challenges due to price competition from imitators, leading to a strategic shift in 2024 to focus on serving key clients [2] Group 2: Client Engagement Strategy - JINLIBAO aims to enhance customer loyalty by closely understanding client needs and developing tailored products [2] - The company serves major global brands in electronics, providing high-end electronic labels [2] Group 3: Market Trends in Beauty Industry - AUZIMEI, a typical ToC enterprise, has adapted to market changes by integrating online and offline sales strategies to stabilize operations [3][4] - The beauty market in China has evolved from imitation to repositioning, with local brands gaining competitiveness through technology and cultural elements [4][5] Group 4: Technological Integration in Beauty - The beauty industry is increasingly leveraging electronic technology, with innovations in home beauty devices that offer professional-grade results [8][9] - The integration of AI and electronic technology is reshaping the beauty market, enhancing user experience and creating new consumer value [10][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The beauty industry is expected to see a shift towards high-end and specialized products, driven by technological advancements [9] - As consumer expectations rise with economic growth, companies must focus on customer engagement and service to maintain competitiveness [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of the functional skincare brand Baizhicui by Juyigroup marks a significant shift in the Chinese beauty industry from a focus on traffic-driven sales to a deeper emphasis on technology and efficacy, reflecting changing consumer preferences among Gen Z towards ingredient-driven purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Juyigroup's acquisition of Baizhicui fills a gap in its professional skincare offerings and represents a strategic move to enhance its competitive edge in the beauty market [1][2]. - The acquisition is seen as a "technical blood transfusion," leveraging Baizhicui's 13 years of medical research background and partnerships with 28 dermatology experts and 12 top-tier hospitals to create a competitive moat [2][3]. - Baizhicui's main product, priced at 380 yuan, is expected to triple Juyigroup's customer lifetime value and attract high-net-worth women in first-tier cities who prioritize clinical evidence [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The anxiety within Juyigroup reflects broader trends in the Chinese makeup market, where brands like Judo and Yeoshu are facing declining repurchase rates and a lack of R&D investment, with less than 2% allocated to research [2]. - The loss of consumers aged 30 and above, who are migrating towards anti-aging products, poses a significant challenge for the beauty market, as this demographic represents the highest value segment [2]. - The acquisition is not merely an expansion of product lines but a reconstruction of R&D logic, allowing Juyigroup to engage with major tech players in the industry [3]. Group 3: Operational Synergies - The collaboration between Juyigroup's 6,000 offline outlets and Baizhicui's 5,000 medical beauty institutions creates a closed-loop ecosystem for consumers, enhancing the customer experience by integrating skincare and makeup [3]. - The challenge lies in convincing younger consumers accustomed to low-priced makeup to accept higher-priced skincare products, as well as balancing the fast-fashion nature of makeup with the longer R&D cycles of skincare [3]. - Baizhicui's medical assets have reportedly increased its valuation coefficient by nearly 100%, indicating that the acquisition is not just about product line extension but also about enhancing the company's capital story [3].

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has undergone a significant transformation this year, with a shift in focus from extreme GMV pursuit to enhancing brand value and consumer experience [2][20][31] Group 1: Market Performance - From January to May 2023, the retail sales of cosmetics in China reached 188.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with May's sales at 43.5 billion yuan, up 4.4% [2][4] - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 festival reached 855.6 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, with skincare sales at 43.2 billion yuan and fragrance and makeup at 14.3 billion yuan [5][6] - High-end beauty brands saw significant growth, with brands like YSL and Hourglass reporting over 60% year-on-year increases [9][10] Group 2: E-commerce Platform Changes - Major e-commerce platforms, particularly Tmall, have simplified their promotional strategies, eliminating complex rules and focusing on direct discounts to enhance consumer experience [14][20] - Tmall's 618 festival saw a 9% year-on-year growth in the first cycle, with a significant increase in user engagement and purchasing intent [18][23] - The introduction of features like "sold-out add-to-cart" has improved inventory management for merchants while enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [17][20] Group 3: Brand Dynamics - International beauty brands have experienced strong growth on Tmall, with a ratio of domestic to international brands at 5:15 [7] - New and innovative brands have emerged, with some achieving over 900% growth during the 618 festival, indicating a shift towards quality and innovation in the beauty sector [10][12] - The consumer preference for familiar brands has increased, with 47% of Chinese consumers indicating a tendency to choose known brands, up 14 percentage points from 2024 [22][23] Group 4: Future Trends - The beauty industry is moving towards a phase where brand value, product innovation, and operational efficiency are prioritized over mere sales volume [31][32] - E-commerce platforms are focusing on supporting high-quality brands and providing strategic guidance to enhance brand growth [26][29] - The market is transitioning from a focus on traffic-driven growth to a more sustainable model that emphasizes brand loyalty and consumer satisfaction [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan, a domestic beauty brand, has successfully entered the high-end market with its Camellia Oil, achieving significant revenue growth and high profit margins while facing challenges in marketing and distribution strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Product Performance - The Camellia Oil contributes nearly 40% of Lin Qingxuan's revenue, with a gross margin of 85.3%, showcasing the brand's successful transition to high-end products [3][6]. - Revenue figures for Lin Qingxuan are projected to grow from 691.5 million RMB in 2022 to 1.21 billion RMB in 2024, with gross profit increasing from 539.1 million RMB to 997.7 million RMB during the same period [5][6]. - The gross margin has increased from 78% in 2022 to 82.5% in 2024, with the core product's gross margin reaching 88%, surpassing competitors [6][12]. Group 2: Marketing and Growth Strategy - Lin Qingxuan has invested approximately 760 million RMB in marketing over three years, with marketing expenses accounting for 30% of revenue in 2024 [9][11]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes controversial promotions and a strong online presence, but it has faced regulatory scrutiny for unverified claims about product efficacy [11][12]. - The reliance on a single product category, the Camellia Oil, raises concerns about sustainable growth if market trends shift or competition increases [12][13]. Group 3: Distribution and Market Challenges - Despite increasing the number of stores from 366 in 2022 to 506 in 2024, the revenue contribution from physical stores has declined from 54.7% to 40.8% [12]. - The franchise model has not performed well, with the number of franchise stores decreasing from 35 to 32, and their revenue significantly lower than that of direct stores [12]. - Customer complaints regarding product effectiveness and pricing issues indicate potential challenges in managing brand reputation and consumer expectations [12].