Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend during the Snake Year trading cycle, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 25.58% from February 5, 2025, to February 13, 2026 [1] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed all others, with a cumulative increase of over 100% during the trading cycle [1] - The defense and military industry followed closely, achieving a cumulative increase of nearly 80% [1] - Other sectors such as telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, machinery, building materials, basic chemicals, light industry manufacturing, and construction decoration also performed well, each with cumulative increases exceeding 50% [1] - The banking sector lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of less than 10% [1] - Sectors such as food and beverage, non-bank financials, transportation, social services, and retail also showed relatively weak performance during this period [1]

农历乙巳蛇年的A股市场交易已正式收官，虽然中途有所起伏，但整体仍录得近些年来较完美表现，市场整体量价齐升。 统计数据显示，在刚刚过去的A股市场蛇年交易周期内（2025年2月5日至2026年2月13日），主要指数不同程度上涨，其中上证指数累计上涨 25.58%，深证成指上涨38.84%，创业板指涨势凌厉，其间累计大涨58.73%。 在反映不同规模股票表现的代表性指数中，中证2000指数表现凌厉，该指数在上述蛇年交易周期内累计涨幅达到50.39%。资料显示，中证2000 指数选取市值规模较小且流动性较好的2000只证券作为指数样本。另外，在上述蛇年交易周期内，中证500指数累计上涨48.49%，中证1000指数 累计涨幅则为40.35%。 从行业板块表现来看，主要板块在上述蛇年交易周期内呈现普涨格局。据Wind统计口径，若按照申万一级行业划分，有色金属板块表现一骑绝 尘，其间累计涨幅超过100%。国防军工板块居于其次，其间累计涨幅接近八成。通信、电力设备、电子、机械设备、建筑材料、基础化工、轻 工制造、建筑装饰等板块表现也较好，其间累计涨幅均超过五成。银行板块表现较弱，其间累计涨幅不足10%。此外，上述统计期内， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the holdings of the Stock Connect program continue to rise in Q4 2025, with a total scale approaching 2.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 54.06 billion yuan from the previous quarter [1] - The largest sectors by holdings in Q4 2025 are New Energy (17.78%), Electronics (13.91%), and Non-ferrous Metals (7.18%), while the sectors with the largest increases in holdings are Non-ferrous Metals, Communications, and Basic Chemicals [8][10] - The proportion of holdings in the main board has slightly increased, while the proportion in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board has decreased [1][19] Group 2 - The sectors with increased holdings include Non-ferrous Metals (+1.96 percentage points), Communications (+0.77 percentage points), and Basic Chemicals (+0.48 percentage points), while the sectors with decreased holdings include Pharmaceuticals (-1.59 percentage points), Food and Beverages (-0.91 percentage points), and Automotive (-0.57 percentage points) [8][10] - Estimated net inflows for Q4 show significant inflows into Non-ferrous Metals (+24.872 billion yuan), Communications (+11.278 billion yuan), and Basic Chemicals (+5.711 billion yuan), while outflows were notable in Pharmaceuticals (-25.665 billion yuan) and Food and Beverages (-16.145 billion yuan) [8][10] Group 3 - Core assets and growth stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, China Ping An, and Siyuan Electric have seen significant changes in foreign holdings, with a decrease in the concentration of the top five holdings [14][15] - The top three stocks by holdings as of December 31, 2025, are Ningde Times (254.343 billion yuan), Midea Group (77.049 billion yuan), and Kweichow Moutai (75.812 billion yuan) [14][15] Group 4 - In Q1 2026, it is expected that Stock Connect funds will continue to increase their positions in core assets, technology, and cyclical sectors, driven by the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improving fundamentals in the A-share market [19][20] - The sectors likely to attract foreign investment include technology growth and cyclical industries, with a focus on automotive, military, machinery, communications, and pharmaceuticals, as well as Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is reminiscent of the 1970s, where fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions are driving a new commodity bull market, with significant implications for pricing and demand in various sectors [3][4]. - The U.S. is expected to implement a tax reduction of $396 billion in 2026, which could directly boost consumer growth by 1.8 percentage points, while the AI revolution and green transition are creating new demand dynamics [3][4]. - The commodity market is shifting from a supply-demand pricing model to one focused on liquidity and risk hedging, indicating that commodities may outperform other asset classes [4]. Group 2 - AI capital expenditure is reshaping the demand for non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in copper consumption driven by data center construction and energy storage systems [5][6]. - The first phase of AI investment is expected to double copper usage in power distribution systems, with an anticipated increase of 400,000 tons in copper consumption by 2026, representing 2% of global production [6]. - The second phase involves a surge in lithium demand, projected to grow at an annual rate of 15%-20%, while aluminum's application in energy storage systems is expected to rise above 15% [6]. Group 3 - There is a consensus in the market ranking commodities as "non-ferrous > precious metals > agricultural products > energy > ferrous," but this consensus is fragile, with risks of underestimating fundamental pricing and macro structural changes [8]. - The black metal sector faces pressure due to traditional demand drivers, and if fiscal signals do not exceed expectations by March 2026, valuation recovery for black metals may be constrained [8]. - The risk of a rollback in global decarbonization efforts could lead to a reassessment of demand premiums for green metals like copper and aluminum, with potential price adjustments exceeding expectations [9]. Group 4 - In the precious metals market, gold is viewed as a more stable investment compared to silver, supported by strong demand from central banks and ETFs, which enhances its "safe haven" status [10][11]. - Gold's unique financial attributes insulate it from industrial demand fluctuations, and its relatively low volatility makes it attractive for long-term investment [11]. - The current speculative net long positions in gold are below levels seen during last year's rate cuts, suggesting potential for price increases if monetary easing resumes [11].

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation rating of "Recommended" for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Cameco's uranium production increased by 36% quarter-on-quarter to 600 million pounds, while the average realized price rose by 5% to $65.53 per pound [1]. - The company experienced a significant increase in external uranium procurement, with a 350% quarter-on-quarter growth to 630 million pounds [1]. - The total uranium sales volume for Q4 2025 was 1,120 million pounds, reflecting an 84% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 13% decrease year-on-year [1]. - The average inventory cost for uranium stood at $61.85 per pound, with total inventory at 970 million pounds by the end of 2025 [1]. - The fuel services segment saw a production increase of 6% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 3,800 tons of uranium [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, the overall revenue was CAD 1.201 billion, marking a 2% year-on-year increase and a 95% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - Gross profit for the same period was CAD 273 million, up 9% year-on-year and 61% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The uranium business generated revenue of CAD 1.027 billion, a 1% year-on-year decline but a 96% quarter-on-quarter increase [3][4]. - The fuel services segment achieved revenue of CAD 174 million, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 91% quarter-on-quarter increase [5]. Operational Highlights - In 2025, Cameco produced 21 million pounds of uranium, exceeding the revised annual guidance of 20 million pounds announced on August 28, 2025 [7]. - The Inkai joint venture produced 8.4 million pounds of uranium in 2025, surpassing the previous year's output of 7.8 million pounds [8]. - The fuel services department achieved a record production of 14,000 tons of uranium in 2025, including 11,200 tons of hexafluoride uranium [9]. - The company successfully expanded its long-term contract portfolio in the uranium business, with approximately 230 million pounds of long-term delivery commitments remaining after fulfilling 2025's obligations [12].

Core Viewpoint - XinKe Materials (600255) clarifies its product offerings and business scope, which may influence market sentiment regarding technology concepts [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - The company currently produces copper foil products, including bronze foil, brass foil, and copper-nickel-silicon foil [1] - Bronze foil is used in board-to-board connectors and mobile phone SIM card slots, while brass foil is utilized for heating elements [1] - Copper-nickel-silicon foil is being developed for next-generation AI high-speed communication connectors, highlighting the company's focus on high-end manufacturing [1] Group 2: Business Clarifications - The company clarifies that its products do not involve copper-aluminum composite materials and that there is no ongoing share repurchase plan [1] - Additionally, the products are not applied in rocket or nuclear fusion fields, helping to delineate the company's business scope [1] Group 3: Market Performance - As of February 13, 2026, XinKe Materials' stock price closed at 3.74 yuan, down 1.32% from the previous day, with a year-to-date decline of 2.86% [2] - Over the past five days, the stock has seen a slight increase of 0.54%, with a net outflow of main funds amounting to 17.32 million yuan on the same day [2] - The turnover rate was 1.92%, with a total transaction amount of 130 million yuan, indicating potential volatility in the stock due to recent adjustments in the non-ferrous metal sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in Zijin Mining's stock prices on February 13, 2026, is attributed to major fund outflows and a systematic adjustment in the metals sector, rather than a deterioration in the company's fundamentals [1][5]. Fund Flow and Market Conditions - Major fund outflows were observed, with a net outflow of 3.435 billion yuan in A-shares, the highest in the market, and a large single order net outflow of 2.475 billion yuan [1]. - The overall decline in the non-ferrous metals sector was 3.36%, indicating a market shift from high-valuation cyclical stocks to technology and defensive sectors [1][2]. - Trading volume decreased significantly before the holiday, with A-share turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting increased risk aversion among investors [3]. Industry Policy and Economic Environment - Changes in the US dollar and interest rate expectations have impacted gold prices, with a drop from a January high of 5,600 USD/ounce to 4,965 USD/ounce [2]. - The cyclical nature of Zijin Mining's profitability is closely tied to gold and copper prices, with estimates suggesting that a 10 USD/ounce drop in gold could reduce profits by approximately 800 million yuan [2]. Performance and Operational Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a growth of 59%-62% to between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan [4]. - Production plans for 2026 include 105 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper, indicating ongoing capacity expansion [4]. - Zijin Mining maintains a leading position in resource reserves, with approximately 1,487 tons of gold and a globally leading copper resource volume [5].

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. experienced a decline on February 13, 2026, primarily influenced by broader market conditions and sector performance [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector showed weak performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.26% and the non-ferrous metal sector index falling by 3.36% [2] - The tungsten concept sector index decreased by 3.71%, impacting Xiamen Tungsten as a constituent stock [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - On February 13, Xiamen Tungsten saw a net outflow of 318 million yuan in principal funds, accounting for 8.41% of the total trading volume, indicating some investors opted to take profits [3] - Despite a net inflow of 386 million yuan in financing over the past five days, short-term capital fluctuations have intensified stock price volatility [3] Group 3: Company Valuation - As of February 13, Xiamen Tungsten's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio stood at 39.76 times, lower than the industry median of 54.91 times, but the stock price had previously increased significantly (up 27% year-to-date as of February 6), suggesting potential technical correction pressure [4] Group 4: Company Fundamentals - Xiamen Tungsten reported strong performance in 2025, with revenue growth of 31.37% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 35.08% [5] - The company plans to acquire equity in Jiujiang Dadi Mining to enhance resource security, and it holds over 80% of the global market share in photovoltaic tungsten wire, indicating a positive fundamental trend [5]

Group 1 - The company Hongda Co., Ltd. plans to invest approximately 71.43 million yuan in a 110kV power transmission and transformation project to upgrade aging power supply facilities, enhance power supply stability and efficiency, and reduce electricity costs [1] - The change of controlling shareholder and the approval of the private placement have been reiterated, with Shudao Group as the controlling shareholder, and the capital structure has been significantly optimized since the completion of the private placement in 2025 [1] Group 2 - In the recent stock performance, Hongda Co., Ltd. experienced a fluctuation with a price change of -0.11% over the past week, with a price range volatility of 9.68% [2] - As of February 13, the stock price closed at 17.43 yuan, reflecting a single-day decline of 1.41%, with a trading volume of 1.061 billion yuan and a financing balance of 1.49 billion yuan [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the stock price is near the upper band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands at 18.37 yuan, suggesting short-term pressure [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel mining policy changes have led to a significant reduction in mining quotas, decreasing to 260 million tons in 2026, a 30% drop from 2025, causing global nickel prices to fluctuate sharply [1] - Jin Yuan Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in nickel prices, as it has a nickel production capacity of 6,000 tons per year [1] - The company's lithium extraction project is currently in the equipment debugging phase due to high-altitude conditions, resulting in slow progress [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Jin Yuan's stock has shown volatility over the past week, with a 1.38% increase to 5.86 yuan on February 11, followed by a 1.71% decrease to 5.76 yuan on February 12, and a further slight decline to 5.75 yuan on February 13 [2] - Technical indicators suggest weak short-term momentum, with the MACD in negative territory and KDJ indicating a K value of 36.35 [2] - The stock is nearing its lower support level of 5.33 yuan, with a resistance level at 6.93 yuan [2] Group 3: Financial Analysis - Jin Yuan's financial performance is under pressure, with a net profit of -102 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 187.51% [3] - The company's return on equity stands at -5.84%, and its gross profit margin is -3.48%, significantly below the industry average of 27.57% [3] - The relative valuation range for the stock is between 4.99 and 5.51 yuan, with a C rating for accuracy, indicating poor profitability and a high stock price [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the nickel industry, with expectations of price support due to reduced supply from Indonesia, although short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to inventory accumulation [4] - Zhongyuan Securities has a "stronger than market" rating for the lithium battery industry, focusing on upstream raw material price trends, though it did not directly comment on Jin Yuan [4]