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Group 1 - Boeing has been experiencing a sustained recovery since the appointment of Kelly Ortberg as CEO a year ago, but a potential strike by 3,200 members of the International Association of Machinists (IAM) poses challenges [2] - The production of the 737MAX is currently capped at 38 units per month, while Boeing has secured significant contracts for other programs, including the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter program F-47 [3][4] - A recent strike in the Commercial Aircraft unit resulted in a 38% wage increase, indicating a trend of rising wages in the aerospace sector [7] Group 2 - The IAM District 837 overwhelmingly rejected a proposal that included a 20% wage increase over four years and a $5,000 ratification bonus, reflecting dissatisfaction with the offered terms [6] - The Saint Louis unit, which is crucial for Boeing's defense business, has received significant investment and is expected to contribute to future defense contracts [10] - The IAM District 837 represents only about 2% of Boeing's total workforce, and a cooling-off period is in place, suggesting that a resolution to the strike may be reached quickly [11]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings anticipates that Boeing's reduction of traditional 737 MAX inventory will aid in gradually restoring a more normal production and delivery rhythm [1] Group 1 - Boeing is expected to decrease its inventory of traditional 737 MAX aircraft [1] - This inventory reduction is projected to contribute positively to the company's production and delivery processes [1]

Group 1 - Fitch predicts that Boeing's production rate for the 737 MAX will reach 38 aircraft per month by the third quarter of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the return of multiple Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to Seattle due to increasing tariffs on aircraft purchases, which have risen by 125% since April 10 [12][15] - Airlines, including Xiamen Airlines and China Southern Airlines, are reconsidering their acceptance of Boeing aircraft amid the ongoing trade tensions, leading to delays in aircraft deliveries [12][16] - Boeing's Zhoushan factory, which has delivered fewer than 20 aircraft since its opening in late 2018, may face operational uncertainties again due to the tariff situation [13][15] Group 2 - The article highlights that Boeing has previously transferred delayed aircraft orders from Chinese airlines to Indian carriers, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - The demand for narrow-body aircraft like the 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo remains high, with projections indicating that these aircraft will be sold out by 2030 [15][16] - If the tariff situation persists, other aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and COMAC may benefit from the shifting demand in the market [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - Boeing is a global aerospace duopoly, with operations spanning commercial airplanes (BCA), defense and space (BDS), and global services (BGS). Despite facing challenges in 2024, including a significant incident with Alaska Airlines and a prolonged IAM union strike, the company has demonstrated strong corrective capabilities [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of $66.52 billion in 2024, with a net loss of $11.82 billion. The BCA segment faced a revenue of $22.86 billion with an operating loss of $7.97 billion, primarily due to the 737-9 incident and the strike [4][5] - Boeing's order backlog remains robust, with a total backlog of $521 billion, involving 5,500 aircraft, indicating strong demand for new aircraft over the next 20 years [4][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Boeing operates in three major segments: BCA, BDS, and BGS, and is the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer globally [4] - The company has faced operational challenges but is implementing strategic reforms under new CEO Kelly Ortberg to enhance quality control and operational efficiency [4][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Boeing's revenue was $66.52 billion, down 14% year-over-year, with a gross loss of $1.99 billion and a net loss of $11.82 billion. The company expects a revenue increase to $81.99 billion in 2025, with a projected return to profitability by 2026 [5][10] - The company’s cash and securities increased to $26.3 billion by the end of 2024, while total debt decreased to $53.9 billion [4][5] Market Demand and Orders - Global air travel demand has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with IATA projecting industry net profits of $31.5 billion in 2024 and $36.6 billion in 2025. Boeing anticipates a demand for approximately 43,975 new aircraft over the next 20 years [4][5] - The company has a significant order backlog, with $521 billion in total orders as of the end of 2024 [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - Boeing is pursuing vertical integration by acquiring Spirit AeroSystems to strengthen its supply chain and quality control, with the deal expected to close in 2025 [4][5] - The company is addressing safety concerns related to the 737 program and has implemented enhanced inspection processes in collaboration with the FAA [4][5]