Summary of the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The social services sector in the first half of 2025 showed uneven recovery, reaching only 79% of 2019 levels. Key areas of growth included K12 training, human resources, and scenic spots, while the travel chain and higher vocational education faced challenges [1][2][26]. Key Points and Arguments K12 Training - K12 training maintained high industry prosperity due to clear policy definitions, contributing positively to the sector's performance [2][3]. Human Resources - The human resources sector experienced significant growth driven by outsourcing and headhunting services, with a reported revenue increase of approximately 30% [3][17]. Scenic Spots - Scenic areas saw both revenue and profit growth, with companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiuhua Tourism leading the way through asset injections [4][10]. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The OTA sector, particularly Ctrip, benefited from travel demand, achieving net profit above expectations due to precise overseas spending and strong domestic accommodation and transportation bookings [5][12][26]. Hotel Industry - The hotel sector is nearing a turning point, with average RevPAR down by 4%-5%. However, leading companies like Huazhu and Atour managed to achieve profit growth through operational excellence [5][13][26]. Restaurant and Beverage Sector - The restaurant and beverage industry showed structural highlights despite facing pressures, such as the June alcohol ban. Notable performers included Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea, with profit growth rates of 35%-36% and 40%, respectively [6][21][23]. Future Outlook - Strong operational companies are expected to outperform in the second half of the year and into 2026. The hotel industry is anticipated to see a supply curve slowdown, indicating a potential turning point. Flight booking data for the upcoming National Day shows a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, suggesting a continued recovery in travel demand [7][8][26]. Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism is expected to further develop through asset injections and is actively building an online platform to create private traffic [9]. Jiuhua Tourism - Jiuhua Tourism reported a robust performance with a 20% increase in visitor numbers, benefiting from favorable timing and improved transportation access [10]. Challenges and Opportunities in Scenic Areas - Scenic areas face challenges such as increased customer acquisition pressure and rising sales costs. However, those with unique resources, like Jiuhua Mountain and Changbai Mountain, are expected to attract visitors and improve profitability [11]. Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are recommended in the OTA sector, particularly Ctrip, and in the hotel sector, with a focus on companies like Shoulv and Huazhu. The restaurant sector also presents potential with companies like Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea [26][27][29]. Other Important Insights - The duty-free industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with a 9% decline in sales but a 20% increase in average transaction value. The focus is on identifying the turning point in this sector [14][15]. - The professional services industry is embracing AI technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with notable advancements in recruitment and event management [16]. - The education sector is seeing varied performance, with companies like China Oriental Education showing resilience and growth potential through strategic adjustments [18][19][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments within the social services sector and its sub-industries, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 653, representing a potential upside of 18.3% from the current price of HKD 552 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by better-than-expected growth in hotel business and an increase in market share. The trend of improving marketing efficiency in mainland China is expected to continue. Despite increased competition in overseas markets, the impact on overall profitability is manageable. The valuation has been rolled forward to 2026, with a target price adjustment based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, total revenue reached RMB 14.864 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above market expectations. The hotel segment grew by 21%, transportation by 11%, and vacation services by 5% [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was RMB 4.846 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 13% [8][14]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to grow by 15%, driven by an 18% increase in hotel bookings, with continued expansion in market share in mainland China [6][8]. Earnings Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 61.611 billion, RMB 69.659 billion, and RMB 78.590 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.1%, and 12.8% [5][14]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 17.981 billion, with a margin of 29.2% [5][14]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17.974 billion, with a net profit margin of 29.2% [5][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned in the competitive landscape of the mainland China market, benefiting from effective marketing strategies and a strong recovery in travel demand [2][6]. - The recovery in outbound travel bookings has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating robust growth potential [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.50, indicating a potential upside of 29.7% from the current price of HKD 19.66 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a projected 15% year-on-year growth in core OTA business revenue for Q3, driven by a 10-15% increase in accommodation nights and stable ADR [2][7]. - The overall core OTA business is expected to grow by 16% for the year, with an operational profit margin improvement of approximately 2 percentage points, attributed to a strategic shift towards enhancing user ARPU and profitability in new business areas [2][3]. - Despite a 10% expected decline in revenue from the outbound travel business due to negative impacts in Southeast Asia, the company remains profitable [2]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 19,295 million, reflecting an 11.3% growth rate, with adjustments showing slight decreases from previous forecasts [3][13]. - The accommodation booking segment is expected to generate RMB 5,505 million in revenue, while transportation ticketing is projected at RMB 8,032 million for 2025 [3][8]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 3,756 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 19.5% [3][13]. Operational Data - The company reported a robust growth in user base, with annual paying users reaching 252 million, a 10% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - The company's self-owned app remains a key channel for acquiring new users, contributing approximately 8% to core OTA revenue [6][7]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 8.02%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 45.36 billion [5][12]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 23.45 and HKD 13.04, respectively [5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong consumer sector is actively performing, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index showing a strong upward trend [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) increased by 1.36%, with a trading volume exceeding 27 million and a turnover rate over 4% [1] - Key stocks in the consumer sector include Smoore International, XPeng Motors, Pop Mart, Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, all showing significant gains [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce has launched the 2025 "Service Consumption Season" to promote integrated development in various sectors such as tourism, food, sports, and digital services [1] - The initiative aims to stimulate service consumption through promotional activities, experience events, and skill competitions, enhancing supply quality and unlocking consumption potential [1] - Citic Securities forecasts a high certainty of continued leisure tourism demand into 2025, with a focus on the recovery of the service sector and experience-based consumption [2] - Citic Jian Investment highlights the stable performance of the food and beverage sector in Q1, with a positive outlook on the recovery of consumption driven by government initiatives [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 4.2 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains strong, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on outbound business travel [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 61.694 billion, with a growth rate of 15.6%. This is a slight decrease from previous estimates [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 18.084 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 17.927 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 29.1% [4][14]. - **Segment Performance**: The hotel accommodation segment is projected to generate RMB 25.946 billion in 2025, while transportation ticketing is expected to contribute RMB 22.261 billion [4][8]. Market Position and Trends - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 3.20 million shares, indicating active market participation [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in hotel and transportation segments, with hotel nights in mainland China projected to increase by 10-15% and outbound hotel nights by 15-20% in the upcoming quarters [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to ease some pressure on monetization, allowing for more stable profit margins moving forward [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 138 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 42 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains robust, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on business travel outbound demand [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: RMB 61,694 million (down 1.0% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 69,889 million (down 1.6%) - 2027E: RMB 78,816 million (down 2.2%) [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 18,084 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 29.3% [4]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17,927 million, with a net profit margin of 29.1% [4]. - **Market Position**: - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3][6]. Earnings Performance Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase in various segments: - Hotel accommodation: RMB 5,541 million (up 23% year-on-year) - Transportation ticketing: RMB 5,418 million (up 8%) - Vacation services: RMB 947 million (up 7%) - Corporate travel: RMB 573 million (up 12%) [6]. - The company’s gross profit for the first quarter was RMB 11,125 million, with a gross profit margin of 80.3% [6]. Future Outlook - For the second quarter of 2025, the company expects: - Hotel accommodation revenue to reach RMB 6,000 million (up 17%) - Transportation ticketing revenue to be around RMB 5,300 million (up 9%) - Total revenue projected at RMB 14,600 million (up 14%) [8]. - The company is also focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in the market, with expectations of stable growth in business volume as the industry recovers [5][6].

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that consumption policies are driving growth across multiple categories, with a continued positive impact on Q1 performance expected [1][2]. - E-commerce growth is projected to continue, with an estimated GMV growth of 5% for the industry in 2025, driven by expanded subsidy programs and recovery in demand for home appliances [2][12]. - Specific company forecasts include Alibaba's GMV growth of 4%, JD's at 7%, Pinduoduo's at 13%, Kuaishou's at 12%, Douyin's at 25%, and WeChat Video's at 26% for 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 165.0, current price at 141.1, and FY25E EPS of 86.3 [1]. - Pinduoduo (PDD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 144.0, current price at 122.5, and FY25E EPS of 104.4 [1]. - JD (JD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 62.0, current price at 43.2, and FY25E EPS of 35.1 [1]. - Kuaishou (1024 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 54.0, current price at 64.9, and FY25E EPS of 5.0 [1]. - The average P/E ratio for the covered companies is projected at 13.4 for FY25E [1]. E-commerce Performance - The adjusted year-on-year growth for physical e-commerce retail sales in January-February 2025 is 5.0%, compared to 3.8% in December 2024 [2][5]. - The expansion of the trade-in subsidy program for mobile phones has led to a 26% increase in communication equipment sales, while home appliances continue to show double-digit growth at 11% [2][6]. - The report notes a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in January-February 2025, attributed to e-commerce activities during holidays [10][11]. Company Updates - Alibaba's Taotian is focusing on growth through new product incentives and enhanced merchant support, with measures including high exposure traffic and commission rebates [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce data shows a 25% year-on-year increase in active merchants and a significant rise in GMV across various categories [2]. - JD's food delivery service has expanded to 126 cities, with over 300,000 restaurant partners, indicating a strong focus on enhancing retail synergy [2].