证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 数据速览 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 中性·维持 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年05月18日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 资金大量回流，科技板块领先 价格走势：科技巨头带动市场稳步回升 本周，美股处于稳步回升状态中，标普500涨5.3%，纳斯达克涨7.2%。 风格：大盘成长（罗素1000成长+7%%）>小盘成长（罗素2000成长5.2%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值+3.6%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值+3.2%）。 22个行业上涨，1个行业下跌，1个基本持平。涨幅居前的行业：汽车与汽车零部件（+16.2%）、半导体产品与设备（+13.3%）、运输（+8%）、媒体与娱乐 （+7.4%）、技术硬件与设备（+6.9%）；跌幅居前的行业：医疗保健设备与服务（-0.7%）。 资金流向：资金大量回流，科技板块领先 本周，美股资金流入速率大 ...

金融界5月8日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证消费龙头指数 (消费龙头，931068)上涨0.49%，报 12951.44点，成交额232.85亿元。 数据统计显示，中证消费龙头指数近一个月上涨6.58%，近三个月上涨1.32%，年至今下跌1.75%。 据了解，中证消费龙头指数从可选消费与主要消费等行业中选取规模大、经营质量好的50只上市公司证 券作为指数样本，以反映消费龙头上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以 1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证消费龙头指数十大权重分别为：贵州茅台（15.68%）、五粮液（13.28%）、格 力电器（10.82%）、伊利股份（9.76%）、海尔智家（4.95%）、福耀玻璃（4.84%）、分众传媒 （3.87%）、海天味业（3.69%）、中国中免（3.21%）、海大集团（2.32%）。 从中证消费龙头指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比63.50%、深圳证券交易所占比 36.50%。 从中证消费龙头指数持仓样本的行业来看，食品、饮料与烟草占比44.12%、耐用消费品占比21.48%、 乘用车及零部件占比15.71%、传媒占比5.18%、农 ...

盈利确认上行趋势 - 港股 2024 年年报点评 20250507 摘要 2024 年港股整体业绩表现如何？ 2024 年港股整体业绩增速延续回升趋势，并确认了上升势头。从结构上看， 信息技术、金融与医疗保健板块盈利改善最为明显，而日常消费及部分可选消 费板块业绩增速出现边际回落。 • 展望 2025 年，全球科技周期回升，以 AI 为代表的产业革命加速演进，将 持续支撑信息技术板块表现。宏观政策发力，稳增长信号将直接受益于占 比超过 60%的内地公司。 • A 股全年和上半年营收累计同比分别为-0.2%和-0.5%，归母净利累计增 速分别为-2.7%和-3%，港股盈利能力修复速度优于 A 股。 从营收角度来看，2024 年港股表现如何？ • 2024 年港股整体业绩增速延续回升趋势，并确认了上升势头，全年营业 收入增长 1.2%，归母净利润累计同比增长 9.8%，下半年盈利加速上行， 同比高达 13.3%。 • 信息技术、金融以及医疗保健三个板块是推动 2024 年港股盈利改善的主 力。信息技术板块受益于 AI 技术突破，软件与服务子行业归母净利同比增 长 77.4%，技术硬件与设备子行业同比增长 76.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Jahwa, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous quarter, despite a 10.59% year-on-year decline in revenue [1][2]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, including brand upgrades and channel optimization, which are expected to enhance profitability in the future [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 56.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.93%, with a net profit of -8.33 billion yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 17.04 billion yuan, down 10.59% year-on-year, but the net profit showed a recovery to 2.17 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 63.4%, with a net margin of 12.75% [1]. Business Segment Analysis - Personal care segment revenue in 2024 was 23.79 billion yuan, down 3.42% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 63.59% [2]. - The beauty segment saw a significant decline in revenue, down 29.81% to 10.50 billion yuan, but maintained a gross margin of 69.67% [2]. - The overseas business generated 14.15 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 11.43% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.32% [2]. Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 77.51 million yuan, with a share price set at 16.03 yuan per share [3]. - The plan includes participation from key executives and middle management, reflecting long-term confidence in the company's recovery [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.42 billion yuan, 4.64 billion yuan, and 5.24 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.51 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.78 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 44x, 33x, and 29x [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong-listed tradable mainland consumption, which has seen a recent increase of 0.57% to 1230.76 points, despite a decline of 8.09% over the past month [1] - The index has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.81% and a three-month increase of 7.24%, indicating a positive trend over a longer period [1] - The index is part of a series that includes HKT Hong Kong real estate, HKT mainland consumption, and HKT mainland banking, reflecting the overall performance of related thematic securities in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the index include BYD Company (12.92%), Alibaba-W (12.58%), JD Group-SW (8.05%), Trip.com Group-S (7.63%), Meituan-W (7.32%), Pop Mart (4.52%), Xpeng Motors-W (3.96%), Li Auto-W (3.96%), Yum China (3.88%), and Anta Sports (3.65%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the passenger vehicles and parts sector accounting for 29.45%, consumer services for 23.30%, and retail for 21.88% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase exceeding 15% compared to the benchmark index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a 30% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.778 billion yuan, a 21.04% increase from the previous year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 71.39%, reflecting a 1.46 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 14.71%, up by 0.89 percentage points [1]. - The company has been expanding its product matrix, launching new skincare and makeup products, which contributed to robust revenue growth across various categories [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.04% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 1.552 billion yuan, representing a 30% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, an 8.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up by 28.87% [1][5]. Product Category Performance - The skincare segment generated revenue of 9.019 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.31% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 71.56% [2]. - The makeup segment saw revenue of 1.361 billion yuan, growing by 21.96% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 71.46% [2]. - The hair care products category experienced significant growth, with revenue increasing by 79.41% to 386 million yuan in 2024 [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.59 yuan, 5.32 yuan, and 6.06 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17x, 14x, and 13x [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a 30% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.778 billion yuan, a 21.04% increase from the previous year [1][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 71.39%, up by 1.46 percentage points, while the net margin improved to 14.71%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [1]. - The company has been expanding its product matrix, launching new skincare and makeup products, which contributed to robust revenue growth across various categories [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.04% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.552 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase compared to 2023 [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.13%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up by 28.87% [1][5]. Product Category Performance - The skincare segment generated revenue of 9.019 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.31% increase, while the makeup segment saw revenue of 1.361 billion yuan, growing by 21.96% [2]. - The hair care products category experienced significant growth, with a revenue increase of 79.41% in 2024 [2]. - The main brand, Proya, achieved revenue of 8.581 billion yuan in 2024, up by 19.55% [2]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.59 yuan, 5.32 yuan, and 6.06 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17x, 14x, and 13x [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [5][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved steady revenue and profit growth in 2024, with a revenue of 1.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.61%, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw accelerated growth, with revenue reaching 240 million yuan, a 44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year [2][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 58.17%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 22.77%, up 0.89 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased to 28.80%, while the management expense ratio decreased to 2.45% [2][5]. Product Performance - The baby care series generated 690 million yuan in revenue, a 32.42% increase year-on-year, while the mosquito repellent series saw revenue of 439 million yuan, up 35.39% year-on-year. The essential oil series achieved 158 million yuan in revenue, a 7.88% increase year-on-year [3]. Channel Strategy - Online sales accounted for a significant portion of revenue, with direct sales, platform distribution, and platform agency sales generating 774 million yuan, 165 million yuan, and 31 million yuan respectively, all showing year-on-year growth. The company is actively building a comprehensive sales network, maintaining a leading market share on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 394 million yuan, 507 million yuan, and 635 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.97 yuan, 1.25 yuan, and 1.57 yuan [5][7].