丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 赵增辉 马玮健 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 工业消费品带动物价温和修复 ——2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 PPI 点评 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月，国内物价在输入性因素及节前消费的支撑下超预期改善，核心 CPI 同比涨幅持 平在 1.2%，PPI 同比降幅收窄。展望 2026 年，上半年食品 CPI 或仍将受猪价拖累，但服务项 有韧性，以及工业消费品项有"反内卷"与国际金属涨价周期的支撑，低基数效应下物价或延 续温和回升，中性预计 PPI 同比增速将在四季度回正。今年债市或在物价温和修复的环境下运 行，我们维持长债震荡偏弱的观点，10Y 国债收益率预计在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡，债市的阶段 性修复机会或需等到一季度偏后半段。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 工业消费品带动物价温和修复 2] ——2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 P ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to rising consumer demand and effective consumption promotion policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December 2025 [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, indicating underlying inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - The month-on-month CPI increase was primarily driven by a 0.6% rise in industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, which contributed approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the CPI's increase of 0.8% represents a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2023, largely driven by an increase in food prices [2] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw price hikes of 18.2% and 4.4% respectively, contributing an additional 0.16 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Prices for beef, lamb, and aquatic products increased by 6.9%, 4.4%, and 1.6% respectively, while pork prices decreased by 14.6%, although the rate of decline has slightly narrowed [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In November, Guangdong's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI from January to November showed a decline of 0.2% compared to the same period last year [1] - Food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.06 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] - Service prices remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October [1] - Notable increases in jewelry prices included gold (up 59.3%), platinum (up 55.1%), and silver (up 10.8%), collectively contributing about 0.24 percentage points to the CPI [1] - Clothing prices increased by 2.3%, while prices for fuel and new energy vehicles decreased by 4.1% and 4.9%, respectively [1] - Energy prices fell by 3.3%, with gasoline prices down 7.6%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.28 percentage points [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - In November, Guangdong's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2] - The Industrial Producer Price Index (IPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [2] - From January to November, the average PPI fell by 1.5%, while the IPI decreased by 2.9% [2] - Among 38 major industries surveyed, 10 experienced price increases, 25 saw declines, and 3 remained stable, indicating an industry increase rate of 26.3%, which is a 5.2 percentage point increase from October [2] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.2%, while living materials saw a decline of 0.6%, with the latter's decline remaining stable compared to October [2] - In terms of month-on-month changes, 16 industries increased prices, 14 decreased, and 8 remained stable, maintaining an industry increase rate of 42.1% [2] - The decline in oil prices affected the petrochemical sector, leading to a 0.8% price drop, while the rise in gold prices boosted prices in the cultural and sports goods manufacturing sector by 2.9% [2] - The black metal mining sector saw a price increase of 2.7% due to adjustments in steel production capacity and increased demand, while the black metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 1.5% [2] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry experienced a 1.7% price increase due to tight copper supply and rising demand from emerging industries [2] - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing prices rose by 0.3% due to increased raw material costs, while computer manufacturing prices increased by 1.6% driven by AI server demand [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In August, Guangdong's CPI decreased by 0.2% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a narrowing decline compared to July [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July [1] - Food prices fell by 1.9% year-on-year, with pork prices dropping by 8.6%, and egg prices decreasing by 5.2%, while marine fish prices increased by 6.1% [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In August, Guangdong's PPI decreased by 1.8% year-on-year and by 0.1% month-on-month, with both declines narrowing compared to July [2] - The black metal mining and processing sectors saw price increases, with black metal mining prices rising by 2.7% and prices in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry increasing by 2.0% [2] - Policy factors, international price fluctuations, and supply-demand changes influenced the PPI trends observed [2]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year CPI remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a continuous expansion in growth for three consecutive months [2][6] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% month-on-month [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][5] - The domestic market's competitive order is improving, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries [5][6] - The overall judgment for the second half of the year suggests a mild recovery in prices, supported by stable economic conditions and effective demand expansion policies [6][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that "boosting consumption" is a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with Shenzhen's recent implementation plan aimed at enhancing consumer demand and market prosperity [1][2][3] - Shenzhen's approach includes a dual focus on demand and supply, aiming to enhance consumer capacity and willingness while optimizing supply-side measures [3][4] - The plan outlines specific measures to increase residents' income through high-quality employment, multi-channel income growth, and addressing overdue payments to businesses [4] Group 2 - Shenzhen aims to create an industrial consumer goods cluster characterized by digitalization, intelligence, and fashion, leveraging its strong manufacturing base [5][6] - The plan includes promoting AI terminal consumption and full-home smart products, with initiatives to enhance product visibility through flagship stores and experiential services [6] - The fashion consumer goods sector will be developed through product innovation and events, with a focus on local brands and unique offerings [7] Group 3 - The plan seeks to tap into the potential of basic service consumption, enhancing the quality of life services such as dining, property management, and elder care [8][9] - Dining is highlighted as a key area for potential growth, with strategies focusing on brand development and creative dining experiences [9][10] - Home services and elder care are also emphasized, with initiatives to improve service quality and accessibility for families [10]