尽管英伟达去年在中国经历了一系列"风波"，但创始人黄仁勋还是坚持新年来华访问。 1月26日，黄仁勋抵达北京，开启其本年度在华行程的第二站。此前，他已访问上海。这也是黄仁勋自2024年新年以来，连续三年在同一时间段访华。 和前两年"新年访华"期间的安排大同小异，他先是去了英伟达新落成的上海办公室，与当地员工座谈交流，后来就过起了"市井生活"，逛菜市场、在北京 一家餐厅吃饭。 一见财经注意到，黄仁勋访华一般分为两类：一类是自发安排，另一类是受邀来访，而他的新年访华，一般都是"自发安排"，其中一个重要行程就是出席 上海、北京及深圳三地分公司举办的新年晚会。 从这一点看，黄仁勋今年的新年访华，和往年相比并无新意，唯一值得关注的是，尽管英伟达去年和中国的关系微妙，但黄仁勋依然来了。 去年7月31日，网信办约谈了英伟达，要求其就对华销售的H20算力芯片漏洞后门安全风险问题进行说明并提交相关证明材料。 在此之前，黄仁勋三次访问中国，不仅受到中国官方的高规格会见，而且还跟雷军、阿里云创始人王坚等企业家密切互动。 在中美关系敏感时期，黄仁勋频繁访问，让英伟达和中国进入相对的"蜜月期"，但这次约谈打破了外界很多看法和幻想。 另外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry, particularly the AI chip market in China, is projected to experience significant growth, with the market size expected to surge from 142.54 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,336.79 billion yuan by 2029, driven by government support and technological advancements in the domestic AI industry chain [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Opportunities - The AI chip market in China is forecasted to grow from 1,425.37 billion yuan in 2024 to 13,367.92 billion yuan by 2029, indicating a substantial increase in market size [1][2]. - The growth is attributed to strong government policies and the maturation of key technological segments within the domestic AI industry chain, presenting critical development opportunities for local AI chip manufacturers [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Environment - In October 2022, the U.S. implemented export bans on high-end AI chips such as A100 and H100, which has led to ongoing restrictions on China's AI chip manufacturing capabilities [2]. - The Chinese government has raised concerns regarding security risks associated with NVIDIA's H20 computing chip, emphasizing the necessity for self-sufficiency in AI chip technology [2]. Group 3: Domestic AI Industry Chain Structure - The domestic AI industry chain is categorized into three stages: 1. **First Stage**: Focus on self-sufficiency in AI computing, storage, operational, and power chips, with key players including Huawei, Cambricon, and Haiguang Information [3]. 2. **Second Stage**: Emphasis on self-sufficiency in chip manufacturing processes, including wafer fabrication and packaging, which are critical for supporting AI chip demand [5]. 3. **Third Stage**: Development of foundational technologies such as equipment materials, EDA, and IP, with expectations for rapid increases in domestic production rates in the coming years [6]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Companies expected to benefit from the growth in the AI chip market include Haiguang Information, Cambricon, Lanke Technology, Chipone, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Tongfu Microelectronics [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589010), which has shown resilience with a slight increase of 0.15% after an initial drop, indicating a stable trading environment despite fluctuations [1] - The ETF has seen significant liquidity, with a trading volume exceeding 400 million yuan and a turnover rate of over 1%, reflecting active market participation and balanced buy-sell orders [1] - Notably, the ETF attracted over 144 million yuan in net inflows on November 19, indicating strong investor interest in core artificial intelligence assets [1] Group 2 - NVIDIA reported third-quarter revenue of 57.01 billion dollars, surpassing market expectations of 54.92 billion dollars, with a net profit of 31.91 billion dollars, marking a 65% year-on-year increase [1] - The data center segment, which is NVIDIA's most critical business, generated 51.2 billion dollars in revenue, significantly exceeding analyst predictions of 49.09 billion dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 66% [1] - The rapid development of domestic AI chip companies is reshaping the market competition landscape, as they provide cost-effective chip solutions and enhance market competitiveness while reducing reliance on foreign manufacturers [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's attempts to regain access to the Chinese market face significant challenges due to U.S. government restrictions on the sale of its AI chips, particularly the B30A model, which is designed for training large language models [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Government Restrictions - The Biden administration, continuing the policies of the Trump administration, has implemented strict export controls on semiconductor technology to China, with Nvidia's AI chips being a focal point of these restrictions [3][4]. - Despite earlier indications from the Trump administration that sales might be permitted, the White House has now informed federal agencies that Nvidia will not be allowed to sell its latest AI chips to China [1][3]. Group 2: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia has reportedly provided samples of the B30A chip to several Chinese clients, but the company is now working to modify the chip's design in hopes of persuading the U.S. government to reconsider its stance [1][3]. - The company's market share in China has plummeted from 95% to 0%, with CEO Jensen Huang stating that Nvidia has effectively exited the Chinese market [4][5]. Group 3: Reactions and Future Outlook - Huang has expressed concerns that U.S. policies are detrimental, leading to the loss of access to one of the largest markets globally, and he has indicated a desire to sell Nvidia chips to Chinese customers in the future [4][5]. - In recent statements, Huang has acknowledged that China is rapidly advancing in AI technology, suggesting that the country could surpass the U.S. in this field due to favorable regulatory and cost conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) into NVIDIA for potential violations of antitrust laws related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, indicating concerns over competition in the GPU and networking markets [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - NVIDIA is under further investigation for its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, which occurred six years ago [2]. - The SAMR's initial investigation began in December 2020, focusing on whether the acquisition could exclude or restrict competition in the global and Chinese markets for GPU accelerators and networking devices [2][4]. - The acquisition was completed in 2019, with NVIDIA acquiring all shares of Mellanox, which became a wholly-owned subsidiary [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Process - The SAMR conducted five rounds of review and analysis from the submission of the acquisition in April 2019 until February 2020 [4]. - During the review, the SAMR consulted various stakeholders, including government departments, industry associations, competitors, and downstream customers to gather insights on market structure and competition [4]. Group 3: NVIDIA's Position - NVIDIA has stated that China is a crucial market for its operations and has committed to providing high-quality products and services to Chinese customers [4]. - In July 2023, NVIDIA faced scrutiny from the National Internet Information Office regarding security risks associated with its H20 computing chip [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against the U.S. measures, which is expected to create significant development opportunities for the domestic chip industry, particularly in the context of supply chain security [2][4][10] - The investigation is a response to various discriminatory measures taken by the U.S. against China's integrated circuit sector since 2018, which have severely impacted the development of China's advanced computing chips and AI industries [10][4] - The report emphasizes the necessity for self-sufficient computing power and suggests that domestic chips could become the best solution under current supply chain security considerations [10][4] Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Commerce's investigation is based on preliminary evidence indicating that U.S. measures against China's integrated circuit sector are discriminatory as per Chinese trade laws [4] Event Commentary - The report highlights that the anti-discrimination investigation reflects China's firm stance against U.S. measures and suggests that it may lead to protective policies that support the development of domestic high-tech enterprises [10] - The focus is on the potential acceleration of the domestic chip industry, particularly for leading companies in the computing power chip sector, such as Cambrian [10][2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is under further investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for potential violations of antitrust laws and commitments made during its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, indicating a shift in China's regulatory approach from "entry management" to "ongoing supervision" of foreign companies in key technology sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Context - The investigation is linked to Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox for $6.9 billion (approximately 501.13 billion RMB), which was approved under specific conditions related to data security, fair competition, and technology openness [3]. - Nvidia has previously faced scrutiny from Chinese regulators, including a formal investigation initiated in December 2020 for similar antitrust concerns [1][3]. - The current investigation suggests that Nvidia may not have fully complied with its commitments made during the acquisition process, raising questions about its market behavior and integration practices [2][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - Nvidia's dominant position in China's AI, cloud computing, and autonomous driving sectors makes it a focal point for antitrust scrutiny, as regulators are concerned about potential exclusionary practices and unreasonable technical barriers that could hinder fair competition [2][4]. - The ongoing investigation could lead to severe consequences under antitrust laws, including fines of up to 10% of Nvidia's previous year's sales if violations are confirmed [4]. - This situation reflects a broader trend in China's regulatory landscape, where foreign companies are now subject to more rigorous and continuous oversight, moving away from a one-time approval process to a model of lifecycle regulation [4][5]. Group 3: Global Context - The investigation of Nvidia aligns with a global trend where major economies are intensifying antitrust enforcement against tech giants, as seen with companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple facing similar scrutiny [5]. - China's regulatory actions against Nvidia are not only aimed at maintaining domestic market order but also at asserting its regulatory authority in the global tech governance landscape, particularly in critical technology sectors like AI [5]. - The case serves as a reminder for multinational companies that compliance with local laws and regulations is essential for sustainable operations in complex regulatory environments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing importance of data sovereignty and national security in China, emphasizing that regulatory scrutiny is expanding beyond just internet technology companies to encompass all sectors, particularly in light of recent data breaches involving luxury brands like Dior [2][27]. Group 1: Data Breach Incident - Dior faced a data breach where customer information, including names, contact details, and preferences, was leaked due to improper data transfer practices to its headquarters in France [3][5]. - The breach raised public concerns about the protection of personal information by luxury brands, with many consumers expressing frustration over the lack of privacy safeguards [3][5]. - The investigation revealed that Dior violated multiple provisions of China's Personal Information Protection Law, including unauthorized data export and failure to inform users adequately [6][9]. Group 2: Legal Violations - Dior's first violation involved transferring personal information abroad without following legal protocols, specifically not undergoing a security assessment or obtaining necessary certifications [6][7]. - The second violation was the lack of user consent and notification regarding the data transfer, which is mandated by law [9][10]. - The third violation pertained to inadequate internal data security measures, which increased the risk of data exposure [12][13]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The article notes that Dior is not an isolated case, as other luxury brands like Cartier and Louis Vuitton have also experienced data breaches, indicating a systemic issue within the industry [15][17]. - The incidents reflect a larger trend of increasing regulatory pressure on multinational companies operating in China, necessitating compliance with local laws regarding data protection [27][28]. - The Chinese government is reinforcing its data governance framework through laws like the Cybersecurity Law, Data Security Law, and Personal Information Protection Law, which apply to all companies, domestic and foreign [29][30]. Group 4: Future Compliance Landscape - Companies operating in China will face rising compliance costs and stricter requirements for data localization and audits [28][29]. - The article emphasizes the need for companies to respect the unique legal landscape in China and adapt their operations accordingly, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all global standard [34].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to "restart" interest rate cuts, which will benefit risk asset prices [2][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are showing upward trends, with increases of 6.70% and 22.07% respectively [2] - The NASDAQ index is also expected to rise, supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [2][42] Group 2 - The report suggests a high allocation to equities, particularly in growth sectors such as technology and AI, due to the favorable market conditions [3][27] - The bond market is expected to see a decrease in yields, particularly in short-term bonds, as the Fed's actions create more room for domestic rate cuts [50][60] - Commodities like gold are recommended for overweight allocation, while oil is suggested for underweight due to ongoing production increases [3][27] Group 3 - The report highlights structural improvements in certain sectors, such as the technology and defense industries, which are expected to benefit from government policies and market demand [28][36] - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to recover due to cyclical trends and increased global investment [41] - Agricultural chemicals are also expected to see a rebound in demand, driven by food security strategies and recent price stabilization [41]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of domestic chip replacement in China's AI server market is strengthening, with the proportion of imported chips expected to decrease significantly by 2025 [1][2]. Industry Summary - According to TrendForce, the share of imported chips in China's AI server market will drop from 63% in 2024 to 42% by 2025, while domestic chip suppliers are projected to increase their share to 40% [1][2]. - The demand for optical circuit switches (OCS) is expected to accelerate due to the expansion of data centers and the need for enhanced interconnectivity and single-card computing power [3]. Company Summary - Domestic chip manufacturers are transitioning from the conceptual phase to realizing performance, with companies like Cambrian seeing a 4200% year-on-year revenue increase to 1.111 billion yuan in Q1 2025, achieving a profit of approximately 356 million yuan [1]. - Other companies such as Haiguang Information also reported significant growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 50.76% and 75.33% respectively [1]. - The report suggests focusing on various companies across different segments, including chip design and manufacturing (e.g., SMIC, Cambrian), optical modules (e.g., NewEase, Cambridge Technology), optical chips (e.g., Yuanjie Technology), switches (e.g., ZTE, Unisoc), and liquid cooling (e.g., Invec, Langwei) [4].