证券研究报告 2025年9月3日 美联储有望"重启"降息，推升风险资产价格 — 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 报 第 5 0 期 ： 2 0 2 5 年 9 月 分析师：郑小霞 SAC执业证书号：S0010520080007 联系方式：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 SAC执业证书号：S0010523070001 联系方式：zhangyz@hazq.com 1 核心结论：美联储有望"重启"降息，利好风险资产价格 风险提示：对各国经济前景预测存在偏差；国内外政策收紧超预期；中美关系超预期恶化等。 3 | 大类 | 项目 | | | 本期：2025-8-29至2025-9-26 | 上期：2025-7-30至2025-8-29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资建议 | 较上期变化 | 核心观点与逻辑支撑 | 指数变动 | 涨跌 | | 股指 | 上证指数 | 震荡上行 | → | 风险偏好高位提升以及流动性充裕程度进一步加强将继续支 从因子分析角度来看，经济复苏斜率仍在低位不利于消费风 | 3615.72-->3857 ...

OCS光电路交换机作为基于全光信号直接交换的通信设备，无需光电转换即可实现光信号的路由与转 发，具备低延迟(降低50%以上)、高能效比(无需高功耗交换芯片，单机架能耗降低40%)、无阻塞带宽 (支持400×400端口级联，单端口速率可达800G/1.6T)等显著优势。其信号转换效率理论值可达传统电交 换机的1000倍，功耗仅约十分之一，有望成为下一代数据中心网络的核心设备。 据研讯社数据，2025年谷歌TPU出货量预计达200万颗，2026年将进一步增至300万颗。以200万颗TPU 组网需求测算，仅谷歌一家即将带动约2.3万台OCS交换机出货。上海证券认为，在数据中心规模持续 扩展的背景下，互联互通能力与单卡算力提升同等重要，光电路交换机需求有望加速释放，市场空间广 阔，建议关注国内交换机及智慧网络解决方案供应商。 标的方面 上海证券主要观点如下： H20停产在即，芯片国产化替代逻辑持续强化 消息面上，根据杭州日报微信公众号，早在今年7月，国家网信办就H20算力芯片存在的安全漏洞与后 门风险约谈英伟达，要求其提交说明及证明材料。 产业层面，国产芯片厂商正从概念期进入业绩兑现期，寒武纪25年Q1营收同比大增4 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上海证券发布研报称，2025年中国AI服务器市场中英伟达、AMD等外采芯片比例 将从2024年的63%降至42%，本土芯片供应商占比则有望提升至40%，国产替代已成大势。伴随大模型 的持续迭代，以GPU为核心的智算中心建设空间广阔，维持通信行业"增持"评级。 建议关注 芯片设计&代工：中芯国际、寒武纪、海光信息、景嘉微、兆易创新、东芯股份; 光模块：新易盛、剑桥科技、华工科技、中际旭创; 光芯片：源杰科技、仕佳光子、光迅科技; 上海证券主要观点如下： H20停产在即，芯片国产化替代逻辑持续强化。 消息面上，根据杭州日报微信公众号，早在今年7月，国家网信办就H20算力芯片存在的安全漏洞与后 门风险约谈英伟达，要求其提交说明及证明材料。产业层面，国产芯片厂商正从概念期进入业绩兑现 期，寒武纪25年Q1营收同比大增42倍至11.11亿元，实现盈利约3.56亿元;海光信息同期营收与归母净利 润分别增长50.76%和75.33%。此外，摩尔线程、沐曦集成等企业正在冲刺IPO。市场格局方面，根据全 球半导体观察微信公众号，据TrendForce预测，2025年中国AI服务器市场中英伟达、AMD等外采芯 ...

继上周我写的《这波牛市干这七个方向就足够了》后，今天我们继续牛市话题，主要讨论三个问题： 1.产业浪潮必有牛市 2.目前有哪些产业浪潮的主线和对应ETF 3.当前投资者最大的风险是自己 产业浪潮必有牛市 远的不说了，我们回顾最近10年的行情吧。 2014-2015年牛市：移动互联网全面爆发+新能源汽车获新定位 移动互联网产业浪潮，始于2013年智能手机渗透率突破70%，并在2014-2015年期间硬件供应端和软件应用端均迎来爆 发。 如果你还在怀疑A股牛市都是闭门自嗨，那么昨晚美联储主席的鹰转鸽发言，应该能打破这层顾虑，美元的全球宽松预 期正在强化，跟A股内部的宽松事实即将形成合力，毫无疑问A股上行的趋势还会强化。 与此同时，2015年3月的《政府工作报告》中，首次提出"中国制造2025"的计划；同年5月，国务院印发《中国制造 2025》，"节能与新能源汽车"是重点发展领域之一，明确了"继续支持电动汽车、燃料电池汽车发展，掌握汽车低碳化、信 息化、智能化核心技术。" 锂电池概念板块指数，从2015年初至6月15日的最大涨幅达到122%。即便遭遇后续的巨大调整，但在四季度那波主升 浪里依然录得不小的涨幅。 其中 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rise in the Sci-Tech Innovation Chip 50 ETF (588750), which increased over 4% and reached a new high since its listing, indicating strong market interest and trading volume [1][3] - The ETF saw a net subscription of over 86 million yuan, leading its peers, and leveraged funds are actively participating, with the latest financing buy amounting to 10.81 million yuan [3][4] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Chip Index (000685) also experienced a strong increase of 4.15%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Jihua Technology (688141) up 13.48% and Haiguang Information (688041) up 10.64% [4][5] Group 2 - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which integrates innovative technology and supports the upcoming domestic chip design, is expected to catalyze the domestic computing power sector [5] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of domestic chips, as evidenced by the recent discussions with NVIDIA regarding security risks associated with their products [5] - The market for domestic AI chips is anticipated to expand due to the continuous improvement of the domestic ecosystem and the increasing demand for secure and reliable computing solutions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the security risks associated with NVIDIA's H20 chip, particularly the potential for backdoor vulnerabilities, and highlights the broader implications for the semiconductor industry regarding chip security and trustworthiness [1][13]. Group 1: Security Concerns - The National Internet Information Office of China has formally questioned NVIDIA regarding the security risks of its H20 chip, which has been reported to have potential backdoor vulnerabilities [1]. - NVIDIA's Chief Security Officer, David Leber, claimed that all of NVIDIA's GPU chips do not contain any form of backdoor or monitoring software, although this statement raises skepticism about its credibility [2][13]. - The article categorizes backdoors into three types: malicious self-contained, post-hoc cracking, and covert implantation, emphasizing that all chips, including those from major Western companies, are susceptible to such vulnerabilities [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Vulnerabilities - Major Western IC design companies, including Intel, AMD, and ARM, have been reported to have serious vulnerabilities in their chips, with Intel's Management Engine being a notable example of a high-risk backdoor [5][6]. - Recent vulnerabilities in Intel CPUs, such as the Downfall vulnerability, have led to legal actions against the company, highlighting ongoing security issues and the potential for data breaches [6]. - ARM processors have also been found to have critical design flaws that cannot be patched through software updates, necessitating hardware upgrades for resolution [7]. Group 3: Implications for Chip Purchases - The article argues that chips purchased from external sources are inherently less secure than those developed in-house, as they may contain undisclosed vulnerabilities and backdoors [9][12]. - The reliance on foreign technology can lead to a lack of transparency and control over security updates, as seen in the case of Intel's long-standing vulnerabilities [12]. - The H20 chip, being a China-specific version, is suggested to carry greater security risks compared to globally available models, as it is only subject to scrutiny from local researchers [13].

Market Performance - On August 13, the market volume broke through previous highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.48% to 3683.46 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.76%[3] - A-share trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest level this year[3] Market Trends - The current market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend driven by policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with broader and deeper participation compared to previous bull markets[3] - The market rotation structure is healthier, with technology sectors like semiconductors and robotics leading the way, contrasting last year's financial sector dominance[3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP is expected to grow by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024[3] - The inventory cycle is transitioning from "active destocking" to "passive destocking," with inventory levels declining for three consecutive months[3] Investment Landscape - Long-term capital, represented by insurance funds, is accelerating into the market, with equity investment balances increasing by 360.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 92% year-on-year increase[3] - The AI industry is experiencing high growth, with major companies like Google and Meta increasing their capital expenditures for 2025, with Google raising its forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion[4] Risks - Potential risks include external policy fluctuations, liquidity structure differentiation, macroeconomic volatility, market competition, and policy support falling short of expectations[4]

相关ETF：公开信息显示，科创半导体ETF（588170）跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括 科创板中半导体设备（59%）和半导体材料（25%）细分领域的硬科技公司。半导体设备和材料行业是 重要的国产替代领域，具备国产化率较低、国产替代天花板较高属性，受益于人工智能革命下的半导体 需求扩张、科技重组并购浪潮、光刻机技术进展。 半导体材料ETF（562590）及其联接基金（A类：020356、C类：020357），指数中半导体设备 （59%）、半导体材料（24%）占比靠前，充分聚焦半导体上游。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 截至2025年8月13日 09点56，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数强势上涨1.57%，成分股中船特气上 涨20.01%，上海合晶上涨8.36%，金宏气体上涨4.94%，中巨芯，沪硅产业等个股跟涨。科创半导体 ETF上涨1.40%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.09元。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月12日，科创半导体ETF （588170）近1月累计上涨4.09%。流动性方面，科创半导体ETF（588170）盘中换手7.74%，成交 3385.34万元。拉长时间看，截至8月12日，科创半 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.50%, continuing to set new highs for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,905.2 billion yuan, an increase of 55.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2,000 stocks rising across the market [1] Key Stocks and Sectors - Cambricon Technologies (寒武纪) experienced a significant surge, hitting the daily limit of 20% and reaching a historical high above 800 yuan, with a trading volume exceeding 11 billion yuan and a net inflow of 2.016 billion yuan from major investors [3][6] - The energy metals and military equipment sectors faced adjustments, while the computing power and photolithography sectors strengthened in the afternoon [1] AI and Semiconductor Developments - Huawei is set to release AI inference innovation technology UCM, which is expected to reduce China's reliance on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology and enhance the performance of domestic AI large model inference [6] - A recent agreement between U.S. chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD with the Trump administration requires them to pay 15% of their revenue from chip sales to China to obtain export licenses [8][9] - The semiconductor market is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion dollars by 2030, driven by AI, with HPC/AI terminal markets expected to account for 45% of the semiconductor market by that time [15] Regional Developments - Stocks related to Xinjiang saw a resurgence, with Hongtong Gas achieving five consecutive trading limits, and several other local stocks also performing well [12][17] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Railway Company, with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan, indicates continued investment in major projects in the region, with total project investments potentially reaching 400 billion yuan [17]

除了硬件"后门"外，周鸿祎表示，从软件层面安置"后门"程序无需硬件改动，也更易实现。他举例说， GPU是很复杂的芯片，相应的驱动程序也非常复杂，更容易隐藏"后门"程序。他表示，这类隐藏在驱动 程序里的"后门"代码可以根据WiFi信息收集设备的具体位置以及设备的工作时长等信息，也就实现 了"追踪定位"功能。由于GPU驱动程序会不定期升级，通常很难对所有驱动程序的升级包进行全面安全 检查，这就给幕后黑手悄悄在某次驱动程序升级时安插"后门"提供了机会。 奇安信威胁情报中心认为，为芯片安置后门时更可能会"软硬兼施"。例如可能在芯片电源管理单元中植 入特殊电路，当接收到特定远程指令时，它可以直接切断芯片核心电源，或者将电压调整到不稳定区 域，导致芯片功能异常，或者改变芯片的时钟频率，使其无法正常工作。另一种可能的实现方式是修改 芯片的引导程序。当芯片启动时，引导程序会检查特定条件（如地理位置信息、授权状态等），如果条 件不满足，就会拒绝启动，或者让芯片在启动过程中降级功能，或者禁用部分高级功能、降低芯片运行 频率或计算能力。 周鸿祎表示，即便美国芯片等硬件厂商不配合，美国情报部门也可能私自在其产品内安置"后门"。他举 ...