文字早评 2026/01/13 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中国机电商会：中欧成功推动电动汽车反补贴案实现"软着陆"；欧委会承诺，符合条件的企业可 用价格承诺替代反补贴征税； 2、力鸿一号完成首次亚轨道飞行试验，其运送的返回式载荷舱顺利着陆完成回收，这是国内商业航天 首次百公里亚轨道伞降回收试验； 3、脑机海河实验室：在航空航天领域开发五代空间站在轨脑机交互系统，完成人类首次"太空脑机接 口实验"； 4、多个有色及贵金属期货品种价格创新高。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.19%/-0.33%/-1.14%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.11%/-0.15%/-2.01%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/-0.03%/-0.55%/-3.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.06%/-0.14%/-0.11%/-0.33%。 【策略观点】 年初增量资金入场，融资规模大幅走高，市场成交量快速放大。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL ...

Core Insights - Yantai aims to become a model city for green, low-carbon, and high-quality development, showcasing significant achievements in the economy and people's livelihoods by 2025 [1] Economic Growth - In 2023, Yantai became the first city in northern China to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan, with a GDP growth of 6.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, leading among 27 trillion-yuan cities nationwide and 16 cities in the province [1] - From January to October, the city's industrial added value increased by 13.9%, and industrial technological transformation investment grew by 29.1%, indicating a simultaneous renewal of both incremental and stock growth [2] Industrial Transformation - Yantai has established a modern industrial structure categorized into three levels: - Level one focuses on optimizing five leading industry clusters: green chemicals, non-ferrous and precious metals, equipment manufacturing, deep processing of food, and modern services - Level two aims to cultivate five emerging industry clusters: electronic information, advanced structural materials, biomedicine, clean energy, and commercial aerospace - Level three anticipates future industry clusters in intelligent robotics, smart connected vehicles, low-altitude intelligent navigation, cell and gene therapy, and comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy and LNG [2] Innovation Ecosystem - The transformation speed from laboratory to production line is a key measure of the effectiveness of Yantai's innovation ecosystem, exemplified by the Shandong Provincial Laboratory for Advanced Materials and Green Manufacturing, which has generated a sales increase of 1 billion yuan for partner companies and attracted 11 incubated companies [3] Green Development - Yantai has achieved a 20.9% cumulative reduction in energy intensity over the past three years and has met energy-saving and carbon reduction targets for 19 consecutive years [4] - The city has made significant strides in clean energy, being the first in Shandong to generate nuclear power and offshore wind power, and has established the largest tidal flat solar storage power station in the country [4] Social Impact - The integration of green low-carbon transformation with improvements in living standards has been a focus, with projects like the Haiyang nuclear heating project providing zero-carbon heating to hundreds of thousands of households [4] - The city has enhanced green travel and digital living, with smart city initiatives making services more accessible and improving commuting efficiency [4] Overall Transformation - The new quality productivity has led to a comprehensive, deep, and systematic evolution of Yantai, characterized by innovation-driven, green low-carbon, and people-centered development paths [5] - This transformation has resulted in higher development quality, better industrial structure, improved ecological environment, and enhanced public welfare, positioning Yantai as a more creative, competitive, and happier city [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Metals Gold (AU) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract was 957.90 yuan/gram, down 3.32 yuan from the previous trading day, up 1.50 yuan from last month, and up 1.50 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of COMEX gold's main contract was 4258.30 US dollars/ounce, up 21.70 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 19.60 US dollars from last week [1] - The spot price of London gold was 4195.78 US dollars/ounce, down 19.20 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 9.82 US dollars from last month, and down 5.65 US dollars from last week [1] Silver (AG) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract was 115 yuan/kilogram, with a previous trading - day value of 14488 yuan/kilogram, up 1.064 yuan from last week, and up 1.900 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of COMEX silver's main contract was 9.97 US dollars/ounce, up 1.04 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 62.20 US dollars from last month, and up 4.67 US dollars from last week [1] - The spot price of London silver was 2.41 US dollars/ounce, up 2.67 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 9.50 US dollars from last month, and up 61.04 US dollars from last week [1] Copper (CU, BC) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 92210 yuan/ton, up 1.230 yuan from the previous trading day, up 360 yuan from last month, and up 4.660 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of LME copper 3M (at 15:00) was 11619.00 US dollars/ton, up 143.00 US dollars from last month, and up 655.00 US dollars from last week [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Copper's warehouse receipts was 31461 tons, down 2,530 tons from the previous trading day, down 678 tons from last month, and down 12,496 tons from last week [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous trading day, down 80 yuan from last week, and up 35 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of Alumina's main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of LME aluminum 3M (at 15:00) was 2873.00 US dollars/ton, up 5.00 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 29.00 US dollars from last week, and down 25.00 US dollars from last month [1] Zinc (ZN) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22995 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan from last month, up 130 yuan from last week, and down 80 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of LME zinc 3M (at 15:00) was 3088 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars from last week, and down 16 US dollars from last month [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Zinc's warehouse receipts was 52802 tons, down 9,226 tons from the previous trading day, down 19,350 tons from last week, and down 1,968 tons from last month [1] Lead (PB) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17155 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous trading day, down 495 yuan from last week, and up 40 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of LME lead 3M (at 15:00) was 1990.00 US dollars/ton, down 15.00 US dollars from last week, and down 98.50 US dollars from last month [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Lead's warehouse receipts was 2.282 tons, down 8,113 tons from last week, and up 1.158 tons from last month [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan from the previous trading day, down 1,890 yuan from last week, and down 3,060 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous trading day, up 12500 yuan from last month, and up 75 yuan from last week [1] - The closing price of LME nickel 3M (at 15:00) was 14645 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 145 US dollars from last week, and down 410 US dollars from last month [1] Tin (SN) - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 320600 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan from the previous trading day, up 4.370 yuan from last week, and up 22,460 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of LME tin 3M (at 15:00) was 40435 US dollars/ton, down 345 US dollars from the previous trading day, up 225 US dollars from last week, and up 2.845 US dollars from last month [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Tin's warehouse receipts was 7024 tons, down 127 tons from the previous trading day, up 448 tons from last week, and up 1.326 tons from last month [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - No explicit core view presented in the report. It mainly provides day - to - day data on various non - ferrous and precious metals. Group 3: Summary by Metal Categories Gold (AU) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/24, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 5.28 yuan/gram lower than before, at 854.72 yuan/gram. COMEX gold main contract closed at 3768.50 dollars/ounce. London gold spot price was 362.08 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/24 [1] - **Basis**: Domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was - 850.99 yuan/gram, and overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 19.80 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/24 [1] Silver (AG) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 10411 yuan/kilogram. COMEX silver main contract closed at 2.02 dollars/ounce. London silver spot price was 2.61 dollars/ounce [1] - **Basis**: Domestic basis (AG(T + D)-main contract) was - 20 yuan/gram, and overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was 0.74 dollars/ounce on 2025/9/25 [1] Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 82710 yuan/ton, and that of international copper main contract was 73450 yuan/ton. LME copper 3M closed at 522.00 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads and Premiums**: SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was - 90 yuan/ton. LME copper 0 - 3 spread was - 31.37 dollars/ton. SMM1 electrolytic copper price changes were also provided, and various regional and spot premiums were detailed [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE copper warehouse receipts inventory was 27419 tons on 2025/9/25. LME copper warehouse receipts inventory was 144775 tons, with a decrease [1] - **Import Profits and Losses**: Copper spot import profit and loss was - 310.51 yuan/ton, and 3M import profit and loss was - 335.51 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20765 yuan/ton, and that of alumina main contract was 2942 yuan/ton. LME aluminum 3M closed at 2647.50 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads and Premiums**: SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was - 5 yuan/ton. LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread was - 3 dollars/ton. Regional spot premiums for electrolytic aluminum and alumina were provided [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts inventory was 67736 tons on 2025/9/25. Alumina warehouse receipts inventory was 149211 tons [1] - **Profits**: Alumina plant profit was - 214.07 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum plant smelting profit was 99.86 yuan/ton [1] Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22045 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3M closed at 2925 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads and Premiums**: SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was - 5 yuan/ton. LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was 47.37 dollars/ton. Regional spot premiums and import premiums were provided [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 21320 tons on 2025/9/25. LME zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased [1] - **Profits and Losses**: Refined zinc spot import profit and loss was - 2837.92 yuan/ton, and 3M import profit and loss was - 2324.93 yuan/ton. Refined zinc plant smelting profit was - 112.00 yuan/ton [1] Lead (PB) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17090 yuan/ton. LME lead 3M closed at 2004.00 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads and Premiums**: SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was - 10 yuan/ton. LME lead 0 - 3 spread was 2.05 dollars/ton. Refined lead Shanghai premium was - 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE lead warehouse receipts inventory decreased, and LME lead warehouse receipts inventory also decreased [1] - **Profits and Losses**: Refined lead spot import profit and loss was - 96.35 yuan/ton, and 3M import profit and loss was - 32.22 yuan/ton. Regenerated lead plant smelting profit was - 71.20 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 122990 yuan/ton, and that of stainless steel main contract was 12930 yuan/ton. LME nickel 3M closed at 15445 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads and Premiums**: SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 90 yuan/ton. Stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was - 125 yuan/ton. Regional spot premiums for nickel were provided [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE nickel warehouse receipts inventory was 24971 tons on 2025/9/25. Stainless steel warehouse receipts inventory decreased [1] - **Profits and Losses**: Refined nickel spot import profit and loss was - 332.17 yuan/ton, and 3M import profit and loss was - 92.25 yuan/ton [1] Tin (SN) - **Prices**: On 2025/9/25, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 273710 yuan/ton. LME tin 3M closed at - 160 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads and Premiums**: SHFE tin monthly spread (SNOO - SN01) was - 390 yuan/ton. LME tin 0 - 3 spread was - 33 dollars/ton. Regional spot premium in Shanghai was - 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE tin warehouse receipts inventory decreased, and LME tin warehouse receipts inventory was 2695 tons [1] - **Profits and Losses**: Refined tin spot import profit and loss was - 1031.35 yuan/ton, and tin ore processing fee was 12000 yuan/ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Categories Gold (AU) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 785.02 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.34 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of COMEX gold main contract was 3431.80 US dollars/ounce, down 3.20 US dollars from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of London gold was -1.93 US dollars/ounce, and the spot price of SGE gold was 779.52 yuan/gram, down 1.44 yuan [1]. Silver (AG) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 76 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of COMEX silver main contract was 0.10 US dollars/ounce, and the spot price of London silver was 37.78 US dollars/ounce, up 0.43 US dollars [1]. - The spot price of SGE silver was 96 yuan/kilogram, and the domestic basis (AG(T+D) - main contract) was -11 yuan/gram [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 78460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of international copper (BC) main contract was 69630 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [1]. - The closing price of LME copper 3M (15:00) was 9701.50 US dollars/ton, up 34.00 US dollars [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was 20750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of alumina (AO) main contract was 3211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1]. - The closing price of LME aluminum 3M (15:00) was 2631.00 US dollars/ton, up 56.00 US dollars [1]. Zinc (ZN) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 22580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was -20.97 US dollars/ton, and the domestic regional spot premiums varied in different areas [1]. - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 13822 tons, down 553 tons [1]. Lead (PB) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was 16875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The refined lead spot import profit and loss was -524.20 yuan/ton, and the recycled lead smelting profit was 73.50 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 121850 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The closing price of stainless steel (SS) main contract was 13000 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [1]. - The LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15230 US dollars/ton [1]. Tin (SN) - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 267940 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33565 US dollars/ton, up 180 US dollars [1]. - The SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 7332 tons, down 26 tons [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yantai's industrial economy has shown a strong upward trend in the first half of the year, characterized by rapid growth, stable industries, and robust momentum [1][2] - Yantai's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size increased by 13.4% year-on-year, outperforming the national and provincial averages by 7 and 5.7 percentage points respectively, and ranking first among national trillion-yuan cities [1] - The industrial electricity consumption in Yantai grew by 13.9% year-on-year, leading the province [1] Group 2 - The output value of six major trillion-yuan industries in Yantai increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with a 1.1 percentage point acceleration compared to the first quarter [2] - Key industries such as green petrochemicals, non-ferrous and precious metals, and electronic information maintained growth rates above 10% [2] - The industrial added value of the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries grew by 7916.8%, 40.7%, 15.7%, and 5.7% respectively, collectively contributing 12.2 percentage points to the overall industrial added value growth [2] Group 3 - Yantai's leading enterprises are experiencing strong growth due to favorable factors such as project launches, capacity releases, and sufficient orders [2] - The city has successfully implemented 100 key technological transformation projects, completing an investment of 13.24 billion yuan, achieving 60.2% of the annual target [2] - Yantai has been recognized as a national pilot city for new-type technological transformation in manufacturing [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - No core views are presented in the report. Group 3: Summary by Metal Types Gold (AU) - On July 14, 2025, the closing price of SHFE gold's main contract was 780.40 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of COMEX gold's main contract was 3352.10 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 18.20 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of London gold was 3357.35 dollars/ounce, an increase of 13.27 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. Silver (AG) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE silver's main contract was 9225 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 272 yuan compared to the previous week [1]. - The closing price of COMEX silver's main contract was 38.41 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 0.67 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of London silver was 2.75 dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.13 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 78090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME copper 3M was 9646.00 dollars/ton, a decrease of 27.00 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE copper's warehouse receipts was 50133 tons, a decrease of 4408 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of alumina's main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts was 22610 tons, a decrease of 69828 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Zinc (ZN) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22085 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2712 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts was 11184 tons, an increase of 3235 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Lead (PB) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME lead 3M was 1988.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 59.00 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE lead's warehouse receipts was 13265 tons, a decrease of 58768 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 119380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 990 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12695 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts was 722 tons, a decrease of 686 tons compared to the previous day [1]. Tin (SN) - On July 15, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 263240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3480 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The closing price of LME tin 3M was 33350 dollars/ton, a decrease of 350 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - The inventory of SHFE tin's warehouse receipts was 242 tons, a decrease of 185 tons compared to the previous day [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are strengthening. It is recommended to have more long - positions in copper and aluminum and short - positions in zinc, nickel, and tin [173][202] - In the second half of 2025, copper and aluminum are expected to be relatively strong, lead to fluctuate, and zinc, nickel, and tin to be weak [173] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01. Review of the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector in the First Half of the Year - Since the beginning of 2025, the trends of CRB metal and the composite index are similar, with narrowing volatility. The domestic and international prices of non - ferrous and precious metals are also similar. After adjusting for exchange rates, the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper show the same trend [7] - The price fluctuations of non - ferrous and precious metals vary. As of June 20, the order from strong to weak is: gold > silver > tin > copper > lead > aluminum > nickel > zinc, with gold rising by 28% and zinc falling by 11.38% [7] - Macroeconomic factors still have a strong impact on prices. The consumption of non - ferrous metals is highly positively correlated with the economic cycle [14][26] - The relationship between overseas inventories of non - ferrous metals and prices is negative. Different metals show different price and inventory change characteristics [34] - There are correlations between the prices of mining ends and the overall metal prices, as well as between processing fees and prices for different metals [60] 02. Outlook on Allocation Strategies - Volatility indicators of gold, aluminum, tin, etc. provide trading opportunities. Different metals have different volatility trends, such as the volatility of COMEX gold falling but remaining at a high level, and the volatility of COMEX silver rising rapidly [74][86] - Through term spreads, it is found that gold and silver may follow macro - logic, while copper, aluminum and other varieties follow fundamental logic. Different metals have different price change rates, positive - spread annualized returns, and logical points [92] - The uncertainty of the US economy and tariff policies has not strongly influenced prices yet. The US economic data shows mixed signals, and tariff policies affect the export of non - ferrous metal - related products [95][107] - The consumption potential of South Asia, Southeast Asia and other regions is being released. Although affected by US tariff policies, some countries in these regions are implementing economic stimulus measures, and the copper consumption in some countries is increasing [115][123] - The domestic demand for non - ferrous metals is distributed in construction, power, transportation, home appliances, etc. Different metals have different end - use distributions [124][125] - In terms of power grid investment, the policy supports the development of the power grid, with increasing investment growth rates. Power investment is inclined towards the power grid, especially the distribution network [127][132] - In terms of durable goods consumption, policies support home appliance replacement and new - energy vehicle sales. The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are declining, while the sales of air - conditioners are expected to maintain growth [139][147] - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization. Although still in a downward trend, the decline rates of investment, construction area, and completion area are narrowing [148] 03. Conclusions and Recommendations - The fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are strengthening. It is recommended to have more long - positions in copper and aluminum and short - positions in zinc, nickel, and tin [173][202] - In the second half of 2025, copper and aluminum are expected to be relatively strong, lead to fluctuate, and zinc, nickel, and tin to be weak. Specific trading ideas and driving logics are provided for each metal [173] - The simulated yield curves of non - ferrous metal prices show different trends for different metals. Copper and aluminum are in a large Back structure, which is beneficial for long - position roll - overs [174][176] - For copper, in 2025, the global copper mine supply shortage is expected to intensify, and the refined copper supply may have a shortage in the second half of the year. The market trading atmosphere is still bullish, and inventories are at a relatively low level [189][192]