Core Viewpoint - The third batch of CCER methodologies emphasizes the policy direction of "promoting utilization through emission reduction," introducing new methodologies for biomass power generation and oil and gas methane recovery, thus enhancing the market supply capacity of CCER projects [1][2][3] Group 1: New Methodologies - The third batch includes four methodologies: biomass grid-connected power generation, offshore oilfield associated gas recovery, onshore gas field trial gas recovery, and onshore oilfield low gas volume associated gas recovery [1][2] - The total number of CCER methodologies has reached ten since the restart of CCER [2] Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The new methodologies aim to reduce PM2.5 pollution and carbon emissions by utilizing agricultural and forestry waste, fulfilling international commitments, and improving the profitability of high-input, low-output industries [1][3] - The methodologies are expected to enhance the market supply capacity of CCER projects, particularly in agricultural provinces like Henan and Shandong, promoting the resource utilization of agricultural waste [2][3] Group 3: Biomass Power Generation - Biomass power generation currently accounts for about 3% of renewable energy capacity but is expected to increase annually [3] - By the end of 2023, biomass power generation projects are estimated to have a total installed capacity of approximately 16.88 million kilowatts, generating an annual emission reduction of about 15 million tons [3] Group 4: Economic Viability and Challenges - The economic viability of biomass power generation projects is a core issue, with many projects facing financial challenges due to high investment costs and low internal rates of return [8][9] - The methodologies exclude projects that do not fully connect to the grid or utilize specific types of waste, focusing instead on projects that use agricultural and forestry residues [6][7] Group 5: Oil and Gas Methane Recovery - The three methodologies related to methane recovery are significant for controlling non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, with China aiming to achieve zero routine flaring in oil and gas extraction by 2030 [11][12] - The methodologies target different scenarios in the oil and gas sector, including offshore oilfields, onshore oilfields, and trial gas recovery from natural gas wells, each with distinct project requirements [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is expanding the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction methodologies to include biomass energy utilization and methane reduction in the oil and gas industry, indicating a shift towards more specialized and refined emission reduction mechanisms in China [2][3]. Group 1: New Methodologies - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has opened public consultation on four new methodologies related to biomass power generation and methane recovery from oil and gas fields [2]. - The first batch of national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market methodologies was released in October 2023, focusing on afforestation carbon sinks and renewable energy [2]. - The second batch, released in January 2025, included methodologies for energy-saving in tunnel lighting and low-concentration gas utilization in coal mines [2]. Group 2: Focus on Methane Emission Control - Methane is the second-largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, and the new control plan emphasizes the comprehensive utilization of methane and the management of methane emissions from oil and gas fields [3]. - The third batch of methodologies aims to address "hard-to-reduce" sectors, enhancing the economic viability of methane recovery for oil and gas companies [3]. - The implementation of these new methodologies is expected to provide a clear pathway for biomass power projects to participate in the carbon market [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential of pure agricultural and forestry biomass grid-connected power generation and cogeneration projects to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with current annual reductions estimated at approximately 24 million tons, potentially increasing to around 50 million tons by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Emission Reduction Potential - Current projects can produce an annual reduction of about 24 million tons of CO2, with projections to reach approximately 50 million tons by 2030 [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is planning to support the sustainable development of this sector through a voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading mechanism [1][2] Group 2: Economic Viability Challenges - The investment and operational costs for these biomass projects are high, leading to poor economic viability, with internal rates of return below the electricity industry's benchmark rate of 8% [2][4] - The methodology being developed aims to simplify the process and support the industry through voluntary emission reduction trading, addressing the economic challenges faced by these projects [2][4] Group 3: Technological Approaches - There are two main technological routes for biomass energy utilization: direct combustion for power generation and cogeneration, and pyrolysis under low or no oxygen conditions to produce combustible gases [4][5] - Over 98% of biomass power generation projects in China utilize direct combustion technology, while pyrolysis projects primarily focus on heat generation [5] Group 4: Project Methodology and Guidelines - The methodology is specifically designed for projects using agricultural and forestry residues, excluding those that involve co-firing with animal manure or fossil fuels [5][6] - The default transportation distance for biomass raw materials is set at 200 kilometers, aligning with management policy requirements and actual project conditions [6]

Group 1 - The third batch of CCER methodologies will expand the coverage of emission reduction projects, focusing on biomass energy utilization and methane reduction in the oil and gas industry, indicating a more refined and specialized direction for China's voluntary greenhouse gas reduction mechanism [2] - Compared to the first batch (carbon sinks, renewable energy) and the second batch (energy saving, gas utilization), the third batch of methodologies demonstrates increased technical complexity and industry specificity, reflecting the CCER mechanism's attention to "hard-to-abate" sectors [2] - The implementation of the new methodologies is expected to significantly enhance the economic viability of oil and gas companies in recovering associated gas, while also providing a clear pathway for biomass power generation projects to participate in the carbon market [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has publicly solicited opinions on four new methodologies related to biomass grid-connected power generation, offshore oil field associated gas recovery, onshore gas field gas recovery, and onshore oil field low-volume associated gas recovery [1] - The first batch of CCER methodologies was released in October 2023, including four methodologies: afforestation carbon sinks, grid-connected solar thermal power generation, grid-connected offshore wind power generation, and mangrove restoration, which established specific requirements and processes for carbon sink project development [1] - The second batch of CCER methodologies was released on January 3, 2025, consisting of two methodologies: energy-saving in highway tunnel lighting systems and utilization of low-concentration gas from coal mines with methane volume concentration below 8% [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Guangda Environment Industry Overview - Guangda Environment operates in the waste incineration power generation sector, with a daily operational capacity of nearly 140,000 tons, leading the industry in scale [2][3] - The waste incineration power generation industry expanded rapidly from 2015 to 2020, reaching a national daily capacity of 1.1 million tons with a utilization rate of approximately 70% [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Financial Performance**: Guangda Environment is expected to achieve its first positive free cash flow since its listing in 2024, which may lead to an increase in dividend payout ratio [2][4] - **Capital Expenditure**: The company's capital expenditure has decreased from a peak of 20 billion to 5 billion in 2024, with further reductions anticipated, contributing to financial stability [2][6] - **Water Treatment Segment**: Guangda Water has a sewage treatment capacity exceeding 6 million tons per day, with treatment prices rising from 1.22 RMB to 1.70 RMB from 2017 to 2022. However, the collection rate has declined due to local government financial issues [2][7] - **Biomass Power Generation**: The biomass power generation projects benefit from national subsidies, with Guangdong province having allocated part of its owed funds, improving profitability [2][8] - **Accounts Receivable**: The company has high accounts receivable, primarily due to the high costs associated with biomass power generation, which relies on national subsidies. Slow reimbursement of these subsidies is a reason for the company's low valuation [2][10][11] Risks and Future Outlook - **Earnings Forecast**: The company anticipates a slight decline in mid-2025 earnings due to reduced construction revenue, impairment operations, and foreign exchange losses. However, cash flow is expected to improve [2][12] - **Asset Quality**: The company has over 10 billion in accounts receivable, with total liabilities nearing 100 billion, indicating pressure on absolute value metrics [2][10] - **Regional Distribution**: Guangda Environment's projects are concentrated in economically developed regions, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 90%, close to 100% [2][14] Additional Insights - **International Expansion**: The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, securing two waste incineration projects in Vietnam and Uzbekistan, each with an investment of approximately 1 billion RMB [2][5] - **Government Support**: The central government has budgeted approximately 120 billion RMB for renewable energy subsidies, indicating ongoing support for the sector, although it may not fully meet all funding needs [2][20] - **Collaboration with Local Governments**: Guangda Environment is working with local governments in cities like Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Suzhou to promote collaborative projects between IDC and waste incineration, although progress may be slow [2][21]

Business Transformation and Strategy - The company has initiated a strategic plan for 2025, shifting its business focus from "investment holding" to a dual approach of "investment holding + high-end services" [2] - Key initiatives include the implementation of energy-saving business plans and the establishment of a digital services company to support the transition [3] Energy Efficiency and Services - The company is expanding its energy-saving services, focusing on both existing buildings and new constructions, with revenue sources including energy management and profit-sharing based on energy savings [5] - The gross profit margin for energy-saving projects is expected to decline in 2024 due to reduced electricity savings and increased project costs, prompting a strategic focus on key sectors such as public institutions and transportation [6] Biomass Projects and Financial Outlook - The company has filed for bankruptcy for two biomass project companies, with ongoing operations for others showing improvement, such as the successful operation of the Tengxian project [3] - The overall business outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by stable growth in industrial and building energy-saving sectors, and reduced impact from biomass projects [6] Market Presence and Client Distribution - The company's distributed photovoltaic projects are primarily located in five provinces, accounting for approximately 70% of installed capacity, serving major industries including automotive and pharmaceuticals [3] Risk Management and Compliance - The company is actively monitoring renewable energy subsidy policies, acknowledging potential risks of subsidy reductions for other projects following the biomass subsidy cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The development of biomass power generation in Pingguan County, Shanxi Province, is closely linked to the local ecological restoration efforts, particularly through the utilization of the local plant, Caragana, which has become a key renewable energy resource [1][2]. Group 1: Biomass Power Generation - The Caragana plant, known for its high calorific value, is being used as a renewable biomass energy source in Pingguan County, with the local company Jin Dian Chemical Co., Ltd. launching a biomass cogeneration project in 2022 [2]. - The project utilizes Caragana branches and agricultural waste, which are processed and burned in boilers to generate electricity, providing heating for 1.52 million square meters in the county [2]. - Since 2021, Pingguan County has completed afforestation of 251,700 acres and restored 145,000 acres of degraded forest, achieving over 60% greening rate along the Yellow River [1][2]. Group 2: Green Development Strategy - Pingguan County is implementing a "three greens" development strategy focusing on green organic agriculture, green energy, and green tourism, aiming for a comprehensive high-quality development path [3]. - The county is promoting diverse energy sources, including wind, solar, water, and biomass, to establish a clean energy base, with several new energy projects already in place [3]. - The integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism is being emphasized, with the development of the Yellow River National Cultural Park and various eco-agricultural tourism projects [3][4].

Group 1 - The company transforms agricultural waste, specifically straw, into clean energy, generating 250 million kilowatt-hours of electricity and 200,000 tons of steam annually, achieving an ecological cycle of "waste to treasure" [1] - During the peak straw collection season, approximately 120 trucks deliver straw to the company daily, with an annual storage capacity of 450,000 tons [1] - The company utilizes a fluidized bed boiler operating at 750℃, consuming 400,000 tons of biomass straw and agricultural waste each year, with an average annual power generation of 250 million kilowatt-hours [1] Group 2 - The company provides stable and reliable heat sources to surrounding industries, including textiles and food, with a heat efficiency improvement of over 10% through upgraded technology [2] - The company has established a heating network covering over 20 enterprises in the park, creating a "power + heat" industrial model that contributes to the sustainable development of the Wuhua area [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of 7.23 to 7.60 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 26.6% to 33.1% from the current price of 5.71 CNY [5][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading private enterprise in the biomass power generation sector, focusing on the utilization of agricultural and forestry biomass resources. It has successfully transitioned from manufacturing to becoming a benchmark in low-carbon and environmentally friendly industries [12][2]. - The biomass power generation industry is currently facing operational pressures due to subsidy arrears and rising raw material costs. However, the company has achieved growth through refined management practices [1][2]. - The partnership with the Zhongke system is expected to enhance the company's digital and intelligent transformation, while the decline in coal prices is anticipated to improve raw material procurement costs and profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1993, the company initially started with gas appliance manufacturing and later entered the waste incineration and biomass power generation sectors. It became a publicly listed company focused on agricultural and forestry biomass resource utilization after divesting its manufacturing business in 2021 [12][1]. Industry Analysis - As of the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of biomass power generation in China reached 45.99 million kW, with the company holding a capacity of 491 MW, ranking third in the industry [1][47]. - The biomass power generation sector is categorized into three types: agricultural and forestry biomass, waste incineration, and biogas power generation. The industry is supported by national policies aimed at promoting renewable energy [36][37]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 37.86 billion CNY in 2024 to 44.05 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 217 million CNY in 2024 to 334 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 8.4% [4][3]. - The company's operating income from power supply and heating services accounted for 53.8% and 43.6% of total revenue in 2024, respectively [15][4]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a competitive edge through effective risk management and operational efficiency, successfully integrating its manufacturing experience into environmental project operations [2][62]. - The company has successfully included 13 projects in the national subsidy list, indicating its proactive approach to project selection and management [2][5]. Future Outlook - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to provide additional revenue opportunities through carbon trading, further enhancing the company's financial performance [2][3]. - The partnership with Zhongke Xinkong is anticipated to facilitate the company's digital transformation and improve operational efficiency [2][12].

文 | 国家能源局 4月28日，国家能源局举行新闻发布会，发布一季度能源形势、一季度可再生能源并网运行情 况，解读《国家能源局关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措的通知》《中国氢能发展报告 （2025）》，并回答记者提问。 出席发布会的有法制和体制改革司副司长徐欣女士、发展规划司副司长邢翼腾先生、能源节约和 科技装备司副司长徐继林先生、新能源和可再生能源司副司长潘慧敏女士、综合司副司长、新闻 发言人张星。 一季度全国能源形势，新型储能等投资快速增长 今年以来，能源行业深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神和党中央、国务院决策部署，推动我国 能源供给体系不断完善，供应保障能力持续增强，绿色低碳转型取得新进展，能源高质量发展不 断走深走实。总的来看，一季度全国能源供应充足，消费保持增长，供需总体宽松，价格稳中有 降，能源生产和用电增速呈现积极信号，主要有以下四个特点： 一是能源生产稳步增长，3月份煤、油、气、电生产增速加快。一季度规上工业原煤产量12亿 吨，同比增长8.1%；3月份规上工业原煤产量同比增长9.6%，日均产量超过1400万吨。一季度规 上工业原油产量5409万吨，同比增长1.1%，3月份规上工业原油产量同 ...