2025年7月30日，由深圳市湖北宜昌商会联合MLC产业研究院主办的湾区宜昌智库大讲堂第二十七次专题讲座在西丽湖人才服务中心国际会议厅成功举 行。本次讲座以"LTC数字化营销&爆品打造"为主题，特邀国内十大营销咨询机构的南方略咨询董事长、中国系统营销理论创始人刘祖轲老师担任主讲嘉 宾，为现场企业家及行业精英带来了一场兼具理论深度与实践价值的智慧盛宴。 上午场：解码华为8621亿增长引擎 LTC数字化变革重构营销体系 在数字化浪潮席卷全球的背景下，企业如何借力数字化工具实现营销突围？如何打造引爆市场的超级产品？ "华为33年持续变革的底层逻辑，是用过程的确定性应对结果的不确定性。"刘祖轲开场即抛出核心观点。他以华为2024年8621亿营收数据为切入点，揭示 这家科技巨头年均267亿增长背后的营销体系：通过LTC（线索到回款）流程重构，将营销人员人均绩效提升至2000万元，实现年均19%的复合增长。 在南方略利欧水泵ltc变革咨询案例中，刘祖轲老师展示了流程变革的显著成效：这家2008年营收仅10亿的水泵企业，通过三次导入LTC体系，2023年营收 突破202亿，15年间增长20倍。更值得关注的是南方略毅昌科技案 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic demand for sewing machines in China has significantly declined, leading companies to shift focus towards international markets to compensate for the loss in domestic sales [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic sewing machine market has experienced a severe downturn, with demand nearly halved due to a decline in clothing orders and increased competition [2][5]. - In contrast, exports have been on the rise, partially offsetting the domestic market's decline, although the global sewing machine market is currently in a phase of stock competition [2][5]. - The overall sewing machine industry is expected to recover gradually by the end of next year after hitting a low point this year [2][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Companies are increasingly establishing offices in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa, transitioning from merely selling equipment to offering "equipment + services" [4][5]. - The trend of "going out" is seen as an opportunity, with Chinese brands gaining recognition in global markets, leading to a shift towards "import substitution" domestically and a trend of "big brand alternatives" internationally [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The Chinese sewing machine industry is focusing on innovation and upgrading to remain competitive amid global economic challenges [7][8]. - The introduction of AI sewing machines by leading companies marks a significant step towards integrating advanced technology into manufacturing processes [7][8]. - The industry is also exploring new applications for sewing equipment in various sectors, such as automotive and toys, to find growth opportunities despite a contraction in clothing orders [8]. Group 4: Future Projections - The China Sewing Machinery Association estimates that the total production of industrial sewing machines will reach approximately 6.85 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.32% [9]. - The export market for high-tech products from China has shown consistent growth, with a 9.2% increase in the first half of this year, indicating a strong international demand for Chinese manufacturing [9][10].

Core Insights - Zhejiang's economic transformation is marked by a shift from an external trade province to an open strong province, with significant growth in foreign trade and investment [1][3][8] - The province has successfully integrated into global supply chains through both inbound and outbound investments, enhancing its industrial structure and competitiveness [4][5][6][7] Economic Development - Since the opening of Ningbo Port in 1979, Zhejiang has seen continuous economic growth, with exports reaching 20 trillion yuan in the first half of 2023 [1][8] - The province's actual foreign investment utilization ranked fourth nationally in 2016, and it is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan in import and export scale by 2024 [1][3] Industrial Restructuring - The entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 prompted Zhejiang to address structural challenges in its economy, leading to a focus on attracting foreign investment for technology and management [3][4] - Companies like Jack Sewing Machine and China Jushi have successfully expanded their market presence through strategic acquisitions and technological advancements [4][6] Global Integration - Zhejiang's enterprises are increasingly "going global," with significant investments in overseas markets, such as Huayou Cobalt's ventures in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7][8] - The province has established a robust framework for international trade, exemplified by the success of the Yiwu International Trade City and the "Yi Xin Ou" China-Europe freight train service [16][17] Innovation and Branding - Zhejiang's focus on innovation has led to the emergence of high-quality brands, with a notable increase in exports of self-owned brand products [12][11] - The province has seen a rise in the number of enterprises recognized as national manufacturing champions, with 233 such companies projected by 2024 [10][11] Infrastructure Development - The integration of Ningbo and Zhoushan ports has significantly enhanced Zhejiang's logistics capabilities, making it a key hub for international trade [14][15] - The establishment of the Zhejiang Free Trade Zone has facilitated smoother trade processes and attracted foreign investment [20][21] Talent Attraction - Zhejiang has implemented policies to attract talent, resulting in a significant influx of skilled professionals and fostering a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem [29][30] - The province's commitment to creating a favorable business environment has been recognized as a critical factor in its economic success [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangong Shenbei Group Co., Ltd., is forecasting a significant loss for the first half of 2025, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -63 million to -78 million yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -63 million to -78 million yuan, a stark contrast to the previous year's profit of 45.94 million yuan [4][6]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -85 million and -100 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 69.79 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.94 million yuan and a net profit of 21.77 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The primary reason for the shift from profit to loss is operational losses in overseas markets, particularly in the European sewing machine business and SG Investment America, Inc. [6]. - Although domestic operations are generally profitable, they are insufficient to cover the losses from overseas operations [6]. - The company’s subsidiary, DA Company, has faced declining orders and increased manufacturing costs due to poor demand in key markets and high energy and raw material prices [6]. - SGIA's aviation manufacturing business is currently in a loss state due to integration and production recovery challenges [6]. - The company has implemented measures such as workforce reduction and cost efficiency improvements in response to these challenges [6]. Group 4: Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - During the performance forecast period, non-recurring gains and losses are expected to decrease by approximately 2 million yuan compared to the previous year, primarily due to reduced gains from the disposal of financial assets and increased gains from equity disposals [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 43.60 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of tariffs on the sewing machine industry is manageable in the short term, while in the medium to long term, it may drive a shift in global apparel manufacturing, boosting demand for new sewing machines [1][2]. - The company is focusing on promoting AI technology in apparel manufacturing, introducing new products such as AI sewing machines and humanoid robots to help downstream clients reduce costs and improve efficiency [1][4]. - Continuous product innovation is expected to enhance the company's profitability [1]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - In the short term, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies may lead some downstream clients to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding expansion. However, in the medium to long term, this uncertainty is likely to accelerate the decentralization of the global apparel supply chain, prompting manufacturers to shift to countries with lower tariff risks, thereby increasing demand for new machines and providing opportunities for leading companies to enhance market share [2]. Industry Growth - In April, the industrial sewing machine export value reached 148 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23%. Notably, demand from external markets like Vietnam and Bangladesh grew by 32% and 50% respectively, although this was a slowdown compared to Q1 [3]. - Countries with lower tariff risks, such as Egypt, Kenya, and Argentina, showed remarkable demand growth, with year-on-year increases of 111%, 254%, and 842% respectively [3]. AI and Robotics in Manufacturing - The apparel manufacturing industry is labor-intensive, with significant potential for AI and humanoid robot applications. Over the past eight years, approximately 57 million industrial sewing machines have been used in China, indicating a global sewing machine population of nearly 60 million. This suggests a substantial opportunity for machine replacement [4]. - The company has made significant progress in developing high-end products, including prototypes of AI sewing machines and humanoid robots, which are expected to open new growth avenues [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.16 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.38 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times respectively. The target price has been adjusted to 43.6 RMB, reflecting an increase from the previous 38.4 RMB due to a rise in comparable company PE ratios [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical importance of supply chains in the current geopolitical landscape, particularly in light of the U.S. customs' new origin verification system and the ongoing trade tensions. Companies must adapt their supply chain strategies to mitigate risks associated with changing tariffs and regulations [1][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain Migration - Supply chain migration is largely a forced response to external geopolitical pressures, with many Chinese companies hastily expanding overseas due to U.S. tariffs [6][8]. - The competition for supply chain security is intensifying, with countries prioritizing safety over cost and efficiency, leading to the emergence of parallel supply chains in Southeast Asia and India [8][16]. - The migration of supply chains is not just a loss for China; it also reflects a reallocation of global production capacities, with companies like Apple shifting significant portions of their manufacturing to India and Vietnam [13][14]. Group 2: Knowledge Flow and Connection - The article highlights that the true essence of supply chains lies in the flow of knowledge rather than just logistics or cost efficiency. Successful supply chains require strong connections between upstream and downstream partners [22][29]. - Companies must focus on building relationships that enhance collaboration and innovation across the supply chain, rather than merely competing on price [35][36]. Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions are identified as effective strategies for Chinese companies to achieve globalization, allowing them to integrate into local markets and build brand presence [38][39]. - Successful integration post-acquisition is crucial, as demonstrated by companies like Hisense, which navigated local challenges while optimizing operations in foreign markets [40][41]. Group 4: Future Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt a long-term strategic mindset when considering overseas expansion, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [43][44]. - The ability to adapt to different national contexts and labor markets will be essential for companies aiming to thrive in the global landscape [44].