投资要点 杰克股份：全球缝制设备龙头，连续14 年全球销量第一杰克股份深耕缝制设备领域二十余年，通过持 续并购整合实现技术升级与产业链拓展。公司蝉联14 年全球缝纫设备销量冠军，2021 年销售额超越日 本重机，成为全球最大缝制设备企业，市占率有望持续向上。公司2024 年覆盖超170 个国家或地区、 8000 家经销网点；爆品策略下，盈利能力持续提升。 工业缝纫机：周期属性明显，行业底部向上，龙头优势凸显一、行业：工业缝纫机市场规模稳定提升， 2024 年，全球工业缝纫机市场规模约34 亿美元，预计2034 年预计增至60 亿美元，CAGR 达5.9%。行 业周期属性明显，以 3-5 年为一轮周期。从我国销量看， 2024 年行业触底反弹，内外需均回暖。 （1）分区域：①国内：2022 年行业规模约190 亿元，受下游纺服产业向东南亚转移影响，内销周期高 点逐步下移。 ②海外：以东南亚、南亚为出口核心区域 ，长期受益于全球纺织产能向东南亚转移，中 国设备因适配中端产能需求、性价比优势显著，较日企更有望持续收获转移红利。 （2）行业格局集中：工业缝纫机行业格局高度集中，据华经产业研究院， 2022年全球 CR ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 消费品： 产品特性：消费品中电动工具、手动工具、割草机以欧美高端消费为主。 2025年6月美国零售销售环比增速为+0.6%，高于市场预期的+0.1%，前值为-0.9%，有显著回升；6月核心零售 销售（不含汽车和汽油）环比为+0.5%，高于预期的+0.3%，前值由-0.3%修正至-0.2%；分项看，6月杂货店 （+1.8%，读数指消费环比增速）、汽车（+1.2%）、服饰（+0.9%）、建材（+0.9%）等消费表现较好。6月 美国零售数据环比增速回升表明美国居民消费意愿回暖，但不能排除关税扰动的影响。一方面，除中国外主要 贸易体的关税豁免于7月到期，为规避涨价风险，美国消费者提前大量采购，导致6月消费数据环比增速大幅提 高；另一方面，随着关税落地，关税对商品通胀的传导开始显现，剔除价格因素后，6月美国零售额环比实际 仅增长0.3%，因此不宜过度高估美国消费市场的韧性。 2025年1-6月电动工具、手工工具、草坪割草机出口金额累计增速分别为5%、-6%、47%。2025年6月单月出口 增速分别为-8%、0%、31%，增速环比-5pct、+2pct、-9pct。2025年1-6月，我国出 ...

2025 年 7 月 22 日 行业研究 6 月对美出口继续降温，工程机械品类出口保持高景气度 ——机械行业海关总署出口月报（十三） 机械行业 买入（维持） 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 作者 联系人：夏天宇 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 机械行业 沪深300 资料来 ...

2025.07. 21 本文字数：2854，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 过去的3个月里，东莞杰克成套智联科技有限公司创始人兼总经理李石勇开启了频繁出差的工作状 态，尤其是孟加拉国市场，"一个月里大概半个月在海外"。 李石勇告诉第一财经，以前是人力等成本因素驱使中国的纺织服装工厂转向东南亚，近年来尤其是今 年则是地缘政治变化敦促着供应链不得不"走出去"，"国际品牌要求中国的代工厂在海外布局生产端 口，规模不一定，但至少要有端口"，以减缓关税波动等因素带来的影响。这是他作为中国缝纫机品 牌杰克的经销商，在今年下决心把重心转向海外的动因，也是中国缝制机械企业应对行业周期和外部 挑战的缩影。 内销腰斩，出口补缺 作为杰克品牌在华南地区最大的代理商之一，陈增南对第一财经表示，规模、供应链和渠道等优势让 杰克这样的品牌能够在行业的周期和竞争中保持优势。如今的中国制造也不再只是靠性价比，而是依 托于价值，"工人工资不断增长，机器取代人或辅助人变得越来越有价值"。 关于"走出去"，陈增南并非没有顾虑，不仅要重新适应当地的生态，还可能面临人身和资金安全等方 面的挑战。然而，愈演愈烈的趋势和杰克这样的品牌方给予 ...

内销腰斩，出口补缺。 过去的3个月里，东莞杰克成套智联科技有限公司创始人兼总经理李石勇开启了频繁出差的工作状态，尤其是孟加 拉国市场，"一个月里大概半个月在海外"。 内销腰斩，出口补缺 "走出去是机遇。"李石勇认为，和海外尚未饱和的市场相比，国内近年来缝制机械市场的购买力不足，根源还是 服装订单转移、萎缩，导致订单竞争激烈，"过去至少做品牌的订单是赚钱的，现在利润很薄，你不做大把人会 做"。这样的市场现状，直接传导到了国内的供应端，让供应链的投入变得谨慎保守，"毕竟重资产投入就有折 旧，反而会让成本优势更不明显"。 中国一家缝纫机制造企业的负责人对第一财经表示，在关税波动的影响下，今年整个行业的内需市场下滑得厉 害，几近腰斩。相较而言，出口近年来持续增长，部分弥补了内需下滑的缺口。不过从全球缝制市场而言，目前 整体也处于存量竞争阶段。叠加行业自2021年达到高峰后开启的新一轮周期，今年是相对的低谷期，预计明年底 有望逐步复苏。 在这种趋势下，这家企业近年来也开启了出海"加速度"，"我们现在几乎所有的优势人员都聚集在海外"。已在东 南亚、非洲等多地成立办公室的他们，不仅将原本的设备销售延伸为"设备+服务"，而且 ...

开放，对浙江来说有着特殊意义——全域"七山一水两分田"，可开发空间不大，自然资源贫乏，让曾 经"小个子"的浙江，不得不把目光转向海外。 以1979年宁波港正式对外开放为标志，浙江推开了外向型经济的大门。经过20多年发展，浙江的"块 头"不断长大，经济实力持续提升，但也面临着先发优势不再、体制活力衰减的困扰。 不进则退，慢进亦退。时任浙江省委书记习近平同志提出"八八战略"，并强调"立足全局发展浙江，跳 出浙江发展浙江"。一个"跳"字，生动描画了浙江转型之路。 从外贸大省到开放大省再到开放强省，"跳出来"的浙江一路奋楫，划出了令人瞩目的上扬线：2004年， 一般贸易出口居全国首位；2016年，实际利用外资全国第四；2023年，外贸出口居全国第二；2024年， 进出口规模突破5万亿元，出口增速位居东部沿海主要省市之首。今年上半年，浙江货物贸易出口突破2 万亿元。 坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，浙江的脚步更坚实铿锵。 产业重构 世纪之初，中国加入世界贸易组织，迎接机遇的同时，开始面临全球竞争。浙江作为开放先行地，率先 遇到"成长的烦恼"，一些企业频遭反倾销诉讼、贸易受阻，曾是支撑浙江经济发展关键力量的块状经 济，结构性 ...

Core Insights - Jack Company celebrated its 30th anniversary and launched the world's first AI sewing machine at a global technology conference in Taizhou, Zhejiang [1][2] - The company aims to build a world-class talent system and integrate industry chain resources to create the largest rapid flexible garment manufacturing platform [1] - The company is committed to investing in green energy, humanoid robots, and AI automation to support the transformation of the garment industry and achieve its "trillion Jack" goal [1] Company Developments - The company has produced its 30 millionth smart sewing machine, marking a significant milestone in its production capabilities [1] - The newly launched AI sewing machine incorporates the first deep artificial intelligence model in the industry, enhancing the learning capabilities of sewing equipment [2] - Jack Company is accelerating the industrial application of AI technology in garment manufacturing, with a focus on high-end products such as AI sewing machines, AI smart cutting equipment, humanoid robots, and unmanned template machines [2] Industry Challenges - The global garment manufacturing industry faces challenges such as industrial transfer, quality upgrades, and low willingness of young workers to engage in the sector [1][2] - The integration of motor control technology with AI and software is essential for supporting small-batch, quick-response, and customized production in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangong Shenbei Group Co., Ltd., is forecasting a significant loss for the first half of 2025, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -63 million to -78 million yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -63 million to -78 million yuan, a stark contrast to the previous year's profit of 45.94 million yuan [4][6]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -85 million and -100 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 69.79 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.94 million yuan and a net profit of 21.77 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The primary reason for the shift from profit to loss is operational losses in overseas markets, particularly in the European sewing machine business and SG Investment America, Inc. [6]. - Although domestic operations are generally profitable, they are insufficient to cover the losses from overseas operations [6]. - The company’s subsidiary, DA Company, has faced declining orders and increased manufacturing costs due to poor demand in key markets and high energy and raw material prices [6]. - SGIA's aviation manufacturing business is currently in a loss state due to integration and production recovery challenges [6]. - The company has implemented measures such as workforce reduction and cost efficiency improvements in response to these challenges [6]. Group 4: Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - During the performance forecast period, non-recurring gains and losses are expected to decrease by approximately 2 million yuan compared to the previous year, primarily due to reduced gains from the disposal of financial assets and increased gains from equity disposals [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The industrial sewing machine industry exhibits significant cyclicality, with Jack's performance surpassing the industry in each upcycle, establishing itself as a global leader. The company is expected to continue increasing its market share through superior product capabilities and is actively promoting automation and unmanned transformation, indicating substantial growth potential [1][6][9]. Summary by Sections Industrial Sewing Machine Industry: Cyclical Fluctuations and Demand Divergence - The industrial sewing machine industry in China has experienced two phases: a growth phase from 1999 to 2007 and a cyclical phase from 2008 to present. The current cycle began to recover in Q3 2023, with production expected to reach 6.85 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.32% [6][14]. - Domestic demand is anticipated to face pressure in 2025, while overseas markets are expected to remain supported by inventory replenishment and supply chain restructuring [6][24]. Jack's Competitive Positioning - Jack is the global leader in the industrial sewing machine market, with a market share exceeding 30%. The company has successfully implemented a "fast response king" and "over梗 king" product strategy, focusing on high-demand products to enhance efficiency and profitability [6][32][52]. - The average selling price of Jack's industrial sewing machines is projected to rise from 2,195.6 yuan/unit in 2021 to 2,481.7 yuan/unit in 2024, contributing to an increase in gross margin from 23% to 31.28% during the same period [6][38]. Future Trends and Innovations - Jack is at the forefront of the trend towards automation and unmanned production in the sewing industry, addressing labor shortages and enhancing digital transformation. The company has launched a digital integrated solution and is exploring unmanned solutions to facilitate machine replacement for human labor [7][55][60]. - The introduction of high-end AI sewing machines and robotic systems is expected to further solidify Jack's competitive edge and open new growth avenues [7][61]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for Jack is expected to reach 71.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 9.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [8][9]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 30.9 in 2023 to 17.1 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation as the company continues to grow [8][9].

Core Insights - The "2025 Shanghai Gathering" study tour successfully concluded, featuring 17 overseas Chinese youth from 11 countries, who explored Shanghai's historical and modern aspects while discussing multicultural exchange paths in the new era [1][6]. Group 1: Cultural Exchange and Learning - Participants engaged in various activities, including visiting the Shanghai Urban Planning Exhibition Center and the Shanghai Tower, to understand the city's development and modernization [1]. - The tour included visits to leading companies in new media and artificial intelligence, showcasing Shanghai's technological innovation [1]. - The experience of traditional culture was highlighted through visits to historical sites and cultural performances, emphasizing the blend of tradition and modernity in Shanghai [1][6]. Group 2: Heritage and Brand Recognition - The final stop was at the Huashan 263 Old Brand Pavilion, where participants discussed the significance of Shanghai's time-honored brands, such as White Rabbit candy and Guangming Dairy [3][4]. - The nostalgia associated with these brands sparked discussions among participants, illustrating the emotional connection to Shanghai's commercial history [3][4]. Group 3: Role of Overseas Chinese Youth - Participants expressed their desire to act as bridges between cultures, leveraging their unique backgrounds to enhance Sino-foreign exchanges [6][7]. - The youth emphasized the importance of storytelling in promoting Chinese culture globally, suggesting innovative approaches to cultural transmission [6][7]. - The tour fostered a sense of belonging among participants, reinforcing their commitment to cultural exchange and community building [7].