文 | 华商韬略 陈斯文 2008年7月，一支小团队悄悄进驻了位于保定的长城汽车总部。 在接下来的几个月，他们将帮助长城汽车董事长魏建军，做出这家企业历史上最重要的决定之一。 【01 "现在小未来大的机会"】 这支小团队背后的公司，并没有太多有形的产品或资产，但它的名字"里斯战略咨询"，来自一位传奇的创始人——艾·里斯。2007年，他与彼得·德鲁克、巴 菲特、杰克·韦尔奇、乔布斯等人一起，被评为全球十大顶尖商业大师，他的代表作《定位》阐述的定位理论，是对美国营销界影响最大的观念之一。 定位理论的内涵很丰富，但如果要用一句话总结精髓，那就是企业不应贪大求全，模仿或跟随竞争对手，应该聚焦于自己独特的竞争优势。 彼时，《定位》就摆在魏建军的桌上，他希望这本书能给他启发，解答他思考了很久的问题：长城接下来要做什么？ 1996年，魏建军发现了冷门的皮卡市场，长城随即推出第一款皮卡长城迪尔。区别于体格庞大、价格颇昂的美式皮卡，长城选择了日式皮卡的小型化路线， 客货两兼，6万余元（顶配四驱版本8.58万）的定价一步到位，几乎就是为乡镇农村市场量身打造。 到2008年，长城已是中国皮卡之王，营收逼近80亿元。不仅通吃国内，还 ...

70年前，粮票、布票是中国家庭购物的"通行证"，一张薄纸决定了温饱与生计。缝纫机、自行车、手表 曾是婚礼"三大件"，糖果糕点票则是孩子们的珍宝。多年过去，尽管购物车里的商品在更迭，但关于温 饱、关于对美好生活的向往始终未变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift of Chinese sewing machine manufacturers towards overseas markets due to domestic market challenges and geopolitical factors, highlighting the importance of innovation and smart manufacturing in maintaining competitiveness. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic sewing machine market has seen a significant decline, nearly halving due to reduced demand from the apparel sector, while exports have continued to grow, partially offsetting this decline [3][4]. - The global sewing machine market is currently in a phase of stock competition, with the industry entering a low point after reaching a peak in 2021, but a gradual recovery is expected by the end of next year [3][4]. Group 2: International Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with a notable shift towards regions like Bangladesh, which is predicted to become a major global apparel production hub [7]. - The trend of "going out" is seen as an opportunity for Chinese brands, as they adapt to local markets and face challenges such as safety and financial risks [6][7]. Group 3: Innovation and Smart Manufacturing - The article emphasizes the need for continuous innovation and upgrading within the Chinese manufacturing sector, particularly in smart manufacturing, to navigate global economic challenges [9][11]. - Jack Technology has introduced AI sewing machines that enhance the learning capabilities of sewing equipment, marking a significant step towards intelligent manufacturing [9][11]. Group 4: Industry Growth Projections - The China Sewing Machinery Association estimates that the total production of industrial sewing machines will reach approximately 6.85 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.32% [12]. - High-tech product exports from China have seen a growth of 9.2% in the first half of the year, with a notable increase in the share of self-owned brands [12].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic demand for sewing machines in China has significantly declined, leading companies to shift focus towards international markets to compensate for the loss in domestic sales [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic sewing machine market has experienced a severe downturn, with demand nearly halved due to a decline in clothing orders and increased competition [2][5]. - In contrast, exports have been on the rise, partially offsetting the domestic market's decline, although the global sewing machine market is currently in a phase of stock competition [2][5]. - The overall sewing machine industry is expected to recover gradually by the end of next year after hitting a low point this year [2][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Companies are increasingly establishing offices in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa, transitioning from merely selling equipment to offering "equipment + services" [4][5]. - The trend of "going out" is seen as an opportunity, with Chinese brands gaining recognition in global markets, leading to a shift towards "import substitution" domestically and a trend of "big brand alternatives" internationally [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The Chinese sewing machine industry is focusing on innovation and upgrading to remain competitive amid global economic challenges [7][8]. - The introduction of AI sewing machines by leading companies marks a significant step towards integrating advanced technology into manufacturing processes [7][8]. - The industry is also exploring new applications for sewing equipment in various sectors, such as automotive and toys, to find growth opportunities despite a contraction in clothing orders [8]. Group 4: Future Projections - The China Sewing Machinery Association estimates that the total production of industrial sewing machines will reach approximately 6.85 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.32% [9]. - The export market for high-tech products from China has shown consistent growth, with a 9.2% increase in the first half of this year, indicating a strong international demand for Chinese manufacturing [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangong Shenbei Group Co., Ltd., is forecasting a significant loss for the first half of 2025, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -63 million to -78 million yuan [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -63 million to -78 million yuan, a stark contrast to the previous year's profit of 45.94 million yuan [4][6]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -85 million and -100 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 69.79 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.94 million yuan and a net profit of 21.77 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The primary reason for the shift from profit to loss is operational losses in overseas markets, particularly in the European sewing machine business and SG Investment America, Inc. [6]. - Although domestic operations are generally profitable, they are insufficient to cover the losses from overseas operations [6]. - The company’s subsidiary, DA Company, has faced declining orders and increased manufacturing costs due to poor demand in key markets and high energy and raw material prices [6]. - SGIA's aviation manufacturing business is currently in a loss state due to integration and production recovery challenges [6]. - The company has implemented measures such as workforce reduction and cost efficiency improvements in response to these challenges [6]. Group 4: Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - During the performance forecast period, non-recurring gains and losses are expected to decrease by approximately 2 million yuan compared to the previous year, primarily due to reduced gains from the disposal of financial assets and increased gains from equity disposals [8].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is gradually shifting its national policy from a manufacturing-centric economy to a combination of manufacturing and tourism, with a significant increase in tourism from China, particularly from the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions [3][4]. Group 1: Aging Population and Labor Market - The aging population in Japan is evident, with many service sectors, including taxi drivers, being predominantly staffed by individuals over 60 years old [5][9]. - In 2023, 384 fatalities were reported among drivers aged 75 and above, highlighting the risks associated with an aging workforce [8]. - Over 30% of Japanese companies have abolished retirement age policies, allowing older individuals to remain in the workforce, which helps mitigate labor shortages [12]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Aging - The elderly population in Japan is projected to grow, with 36.25 million individuals aged 65 and above by 2024, accounting for 29.3% of the total population [15][16]. - The elderly contribute to the economy by continuing to work, which alleviates the burden on social security systems [19]. - There is a growing market for products tailored to the elderly, including specialized household items and medical supplies, driven by the large elderly demographic [22][23]. Group 3: Unique Market Trends - Japan's "Galapagosization" phenomenon refers to the unique evolution of products and services tailored to the elderly, which may lag behind global technological trends [31]. - The market for elderly products includes items like electric beds and adult diapers, which have seen increased demand, sometimes surpassing that of baby products [29][30]. - The elderly consumer market is characterized by a preference for traditional products and services, which can slow down innovation but also create niche markets [19][20]. Group 4: Government Response and Community Planning - The Japanese government is focusing on enhancing the quality of life for the elderly through community planning and the establishment of age-friendly environments [33]. - Initiatives include building senior living communities and promoting policies that support the elderly's continued participation in the workforce [33].

Core Viewpoint - The negative impacts of the U.S. tariff policy have exceeded market expectations, causing troubles for the U.S. economy and increasing uncertainty in the global economy, reminiscent of the disastrous effects of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s [1][7]. Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, initiated in 1929, aimed to protect U.S. agricultural interests by significantly raising tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, with rates reaching as high as 60% [2][3]. - The act faced strong opposition from academia and business but was signed into law by President Hoover, leading to retaliatory tariffs from other countries and igniting a global trade war [2][3]. Economic Consequences - Following the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, U.S. imports from Europe plummeted from $1.334 billion in 1929 to $390 million in 1932, while exports dropped from $2.341 billion to $784 million, resulting in a 67% decrease in trade volume [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate soared to 25.1% by 1933, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 89% from its peak in 1929 [3][4]. - The global trade volume and industrial output also suffered, with a 66% decline in global trade and a 33% drop in industrial output by 1934 [3][4]. Modern Implications - The current U.S. tariff policies, initiated under the Trump administration and continued by the Biden administration, have not achieved their intended goals of manufacturing return or trade deficit reduction, instead causing economic damage and loss of credibility [7][8]. - The U.S. agricultural sector faces estimated annual losses exceeding $12 billion due to these tariffs, which are ultimately passed on to consumers, exacerbating inflation risks [7][8]. Global Trade Dynamics - The persistence of high tariffs distorts price signals and hinders global productivity, leading to long-term economic damage [8]. - In today's highly specialized and integrated global economy, the negative impacts of protectionism spread rapidly, disrupting global supply chains and hindering economic growth [8][9].

Group 1: Macro and Industry Insights - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on China's manufacturing industry is significant, with a shift from labor-intensive industries to equipment manufacturing, primarily targeting ASEAN markets [1] - As the export tax rates between China and ASEAN diverge, opportunities for Chinese companies to expand overseas will increase, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the US, such as mobile phones and automotive parts [1] Group 2: Banking Sector - The total scale of wealth management in China's banking sector decreased by 0.8 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, with fluctuations in scale due to market volatility [2] - The asset allocation structure remains stable, with an increase in the proportion of interbank lending and repurchase agreements, while bond and deposit asset proportions have decreased [2] Group 3: High-end Manufacturing - In March, exports continued the growth trend from January, with notable increases in the export of lawn mowers and sewing machines, with year-on-year growth rates of 30% and 47% respectively [3] - The growth in exports is attributed to preemptive consumer behavior in the US due to tariff disruptions [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In Q1, the transaction volume of residential land in key cities increased, with the average transaction price in the core 30 cities rising by 24% year-on-year [4] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in these cities increased by 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the real estate market [4] Group 5: Precious Metals - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, enhancing gold's monetary attributes, with increased investment demand observed [6] - The report maintains a positive outlook on gold stocks, particularly those with strong earnings potential [6] Group 6: Chemical and Petrochemical Industry - The report highlights continued optimism for domestic substitution trends and sectors benefiting from economic recovery, recommending investments in major oil companies and chemical firms [7] - Specific companies mentioned include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and various agricultural chemical firms [7] Group 7: Company Performance - CNOOC Services reported a significant increase in net profit of 39.6% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 10.8 billion yuan [8] - The company is expected to see continued profit growth in the coming years, with net profit projections of 3.8 billion, 4.2 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Group 8: Environmental Sector - Oriental Electronics reported steady growth in major business revenues, with Q4 2024 net profit exceeding 200 million yuan [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its virtual power plant business, which is expected to contribute to future growth [10] Group 9: Telecommunications - China Mobile achieved a slight increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with total revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.02% [21] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [21]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【房地产】Q1重点城市土拍热度持续上升，核心30城宅地成交均价同比+24%——土地市场月度跟踪报告 （2025年3月） Q1百城宅地成交建面4,197万平，同比+0.1%，成交楼面均价7,373元/平方米，同比+15.1%；30城成交宅地总建 面2,134万平，同比+16.1%，成交楼面均价13,080元/平，同比+24.1%；Q1光大核心30城成交宅地整体溢价率 18.7%，同比+11.3pct。 （何缅南/韦勇强）2025-04-24 （赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）2025-04-24 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【机械】3月出口延续1月增长态势，割草机、缝纫机数据亮眼 ——机械行业海关总署出口月报（十） 您可点击 ...

Real Estate - In Q1, the land auction heat in key cities continues to rise, with the average transaction price of residential land in the core 30 cities increasing by 24% year-on-year [3] - The total area of residential land sold in 100 cities reached 41.97 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with a floor price of 7,373 yuan per square meter, up 15.1% year-on-year [3] - The total area of residential land sold in 30 cities was 21.34 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with a floor price of 13,080 yuan per square meter, up 24.1% year-on-year [3] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in the core 30 cities was 18.7%, an increase of 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] Machinery - In March, exports continued the growth trend from January, with notable performance in lawn mowers and sewing machines [3] - The export growth rates for tractors and mining machinery in March were 21% and 24% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Cumulative exports of electric tools and lawn mowers to North America from January to March increased by 20% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The export of industrial sewing machines increased by 47% year-on-year [3] China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) - In Q1 2025, CNOOC reported a significant increase in drilling workload, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 39.6% year-on-year [4] - The total operating revenue for Q1 was 10.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, but a decrease of 26.25% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The average price of Brent crude oil in Q1 was $74.98 per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [4] China Jushi - In Q1 2025, China Jushi's profit per ton for its roving yarn business improved sequentially, with sales maintaining rapid growth [5] - The profitability of the electronic cloth business increased significantly year-on-year, although it saw a slight decline quarter-on-quarter [5] - The core variable for the roving yarn industry in 2025 is the demand for wind power yarn, driven by rapid growth in new wind power installations [5] Aokrey - Aokrey's overseas market expansion showed significant results, with notable improvement in profitability in Q1 2025 [6] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 15.68% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 243 million yuan, an increase of 0.58% year-on-year, and net profit was 52 million yuan, up 15.33% year-on-year [6] Giant Technology - In 2024, Giant Technology achieved a revenue of 14.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, and a net profit of 2.304 billion yuan, up 36.2% year-on-year [7] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was also 2.304 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.7% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Sanhuan Group - Sanhuan Group reported steady growth in performance, with operating revenue of 7.375 billion yuan in 2024, up 28.78% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 2.19 billion yuan, an increase of 38.55% year-on-year [8] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.09% [8]