本文约 4 0 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 2 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 格林沃尔德在《Competition Demystified》提到真正持久的竞争优势来自规模经济效益与客户锁定的结合。 规模经济效益很容易理解，规模经济可以为公司带来可持续的的低成本，在茶饮/连锁咖啡行业里广告营销成本、仓储费用、折旧费用，都是属于可以被 均摊的固定成本。而客户锁定是一个很抽象很容易被错判的壁垒。 在很多年前的香烟广告里，烟民宣称他们"宁可抗争也决不换牌子"。这是客户锁定。每个企业都希望拥有这么忠诚的客户。2017年新氧是医美行业绝对 的平台老大，在医美市场在线预订支付总额占比33.1％，前后三百公里看不见对手。后面的故事很惨烈，2018年阿里、美团、京东、百度等互联网巨头 躬身入局，新氧几乎已经退出医美平台竞争。而2017年新氧8亿美金估值讲的就是客户锁定的叙事，不仅小非投资者看错了，TX等大机构也看错了。 客户锁定的故事不是演说出来的，是在一次次在竞争中守住阵地，最终让新进入者望而却步。瑞幸用了三次战争告诉市场，我可以获得竞争对手无法企 及的客户。 0 1 星巴克平替 在2013年限制三公消费之前，很多餐饮企业 ...

Group 1: Upcoming IPOs - Several significant IPOs are on the horizon, including Klarna, Gemini, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Figure, and Legence, all expected to debut in the U.S. capital markets in September [1] - Analysts believe that the period from early September to mid-October will be crucial for IPOs, as many well-known companies are waiting to assess investor confidence amid U.S. political and economic uncertainties [1] Group 2: Klarna's IPO Details - Klarna plans to raise up to $1.27 billion through its IPO, offering 34.3 million shares at a price range of $35 to $37 per share, potentially valuing the company at approximately $14 billion [3] - In the first half of this year, Klarna reported total revenue of $1.52 billion and a net loss of $153 million, compared to $1.33 billion in revenue and a net loss of $38 million in the same period last year [3] - Klarna's valuation peaked at $45.6 billion in 2021 but dropped to $6.7 billion after a funding round in 2022, reflecting an 85% decrease [4][5] Group 3: Crypto Industry IPOs - Gemini and Figure are preparing for IPOs, following the successful listings of Circle and Bullish, which may sustain investor interest in the crypto sector [7] - Gemini aims to raise up to $317 million by offering 16.67 million shares at a price range of $17 to $19, potentially valuing the company at $2.22 billion [7][8] - Figure, a blockchain-based lending institution, plans to sell 26.3 million shares at a price range of $18 to $20, potentially raising up to $526.3 million and achieving a market valuation of $3.37 billion [8] Group 4: Market Conditions for IPOs - The U.S. IPO market faced stagnation after the Trump administration announced tariffs, but concerns have eased, allowing companies to consider going public again [11] - IPOX CEO Josef Schuster anticipates strong sentiment for U.S. IPOs to continue into 2025, particularly for tech-focused companies related to U.S. consumers [11] - Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman noted that more large private companies are willing to enter the stock market, indicating a stronger IPO pipeline for the second half of 2025 [11]

Group 1 - Klarna Group and several other companies submitted IPO applications in August, setting the stage for six companies to potentially start their U.S. IPO roadshows as early as next week, increasing market expectations for the IPO market in the coming months [1] - Klarna updated its filing with the SEC on August 15, including its latest financial performance, signaling a clear intention to proceed with its IPO plans that were previously paused [1] - Other companies that have updated their IPO filings include Gemini Space Station Inc., Figure Technologies, Legence Corp., Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc., and Via Transportation Inc. [1] Group 2 - If these six companies confirm their IPO pricing in the second week of September, it will mark one of the most concentrated periods for large IPO transactions since the end of 2021 [2] - The last instance of five U.S. companies raising over $100 million through IPOs in a single week occurred in January, led by Smithfield Foods Inc. with a fundraising scale of $572 million [2] Group 3 - The number of potential IPO candidates in the U.S. remains high, and a tight IPO window may compel candidates to expedite their listing plans [3] - Morgan Stanley is currently servicing up to 30 companies that have either submitted IPO filings or are actively gauging investor interest [3] - Companies like Netskope Inc., Pattern Group Inc., and WaterBridge Infrastructure Group have submitted IPO applications recently, with roadshows potentially starting as early as the week of September 8 [3]

Core Insights - Starbucks China is experiencing a turnaround in performance, with revenue, net profit, and store transaction volume showing continuous improvement due to comprehensive strategic adjustments over the past year [1][5][6] - The company is in substantive negotiations regarding the sale of a portion of its equity in the Chinese market, aiming to bring in partners that can aid future development rather than seeking a complete exit [1][15][18] Group 1: Performance Recovery - In Q2 of FY2025, Starbucks China's revenue reached $739.7 million, a 5% year-over-year increase, marking a quarterly high for FY2024 [5] - Revenue continued to rise in Q3, reaching $790 million with an 8% growth rate [5] - Same-store sales increased by 2% in Q3, with transaction volume up by 6% and average ticket price down by 4% [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company has implemented significant price reductions across three major non-coffee product categories and launched a breakfast combo priced at 9.9 yuan to stimulate consumption [7][9] - Product innovation has accelerated, with the introduction of the "True Flavor No Sugar" series and various co-branding marketing campaigns [9][11] - Starbucks is expanding its delivery services by partnering with additional platforms like JD and Taobao [11] Group 3: Market Expansion - The number of Starbucks stores in China has steadily increased, reaching 7,828 by the end of June, with a 9% year-over-year growth [12] - The company is entering new county-level markets and creating unique store concepts that blend local culture with the "third space" experience [13] Group 4: Equity Sale Strategy - Starbucks is evaluating over 20 interested institutions for potential equity sales, with plans to retain approximately 30% of the shares [17][19] - The goal of this partial sale is to ensure better future development for the Starbucks brand in China, rather than merely raising funds [18][21] - Potential buyers include major investment firms, indicating that Starbucks China remains a valuable asset despite competitive pressures [25][26] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Starbucks faces significant competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee and Koolearn, which are rapidly expanding in the market [3][14] - The company must balance maintaining its premium positioning while accelerating local market penetration to fend off competition [29][31] - Key success factors include product innovation, localization, and efficient channel expansion, particularly in online sales [31][33]

Core Insights - Starbucks reported Q3 FY2025 earnings with revenue of $8.918 billion from coffee shop operations, slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by the opening of 1,151 new stores globally, contributing $0.927 billion in incremental revenue [2] - In North America, revenue was $6.927 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, accounting for approximately 73% of total coffee shop revenue [2] - In China, revenue reached $0.790 billion, a year-on-year growth of 8%, marking one of the top three revenue performances since FY2023, supported by the opening of 522 new stores and strategic pricing adjustments [2] Group 1: Market Position and Competition - Starbucks' market share in China has declined from a peak of 42% in 2017 to 14% in 2024, despite the overall coffee market growing significantly [4][5] - Luckin Coffee's revenue for the same period was approximately $1.2359 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%, indicating that its revenue is now roughly equivalent to 2.5 times that of Starbucks in China [4][5] - The shift in consumer preferences has led to a redefinition of coffee consumption, with Luckin positioning coffee as a daily beverage rather than a luxury item, challenging Starbucks' traditional "third space" concept [5][10] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Starbucks has introduced a "study room" concept in select locations to enhance its brand's spatial advantage, aiming to attract students and freelancers while avoiding direct price competition with lower-cost alternatives [12][13] - The company has also implemented price adjustments on key products, with average price reductions of 5 yuan, to remain competitive in a market increasingly defined by lower price points [8][9] - Starbucks is exploring strategic partnerships and potential equity sales to leverage local expertise and improve its competitive position in the Chinese market [15][17] Group 3: Financial and Operational Insights - As of June 2025, Starbucks operated 7,828 stores in China, representing nearly 20% of its total global store count of 41,097, but contributing only about 8% of total revenue [2] - The average annual revenue per store for Starbucks in China is approximately 730,000 yuan, compared to Luckin's 540,000 yuan, highlighting the disparity in operational efficiency [8] - The valuation of Starbucks' Chinese operations is estimated at $5 billion to $6 billion, significantly lower than its global market valuation, indicating a shift in perception from a key growth market to a discounted asset [18]

Core Viewpoint - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo highlights the emphasis on green supply chains, with Starbucks China showcasing its sustainable practices and announcing a strategic partnership with Envision Technology Group to enhance its green coffee strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Starbucks' Green Initiatives - Starbucks China has achieved a high level of localization, with 98% of its products manufactured locally, and aims to create a more sustainable supply chain in collaboration with suppliers [2]. - The Starbucks China Coffee Innovation Industrial Park, with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan, is the largest strategic investment by Starbucks outside the U.S. and is designed to be the greenest production base globally, utilizing 100% green electricity and reducing carbon emissions equivalent to 800,000 coffee trees annually [2][3]. - Currently, 2,100 Starbucks stores in China have received green store certification, all using green-certified electricity, and over 7,500 stores are connected to an intelligent IoT system for real-time data tracking and optimization of energy efficiency [3]. Group 2: Addressing Scope 3 Emissions - Approximately 70% of Starbucks' total carbon emissions come from its supply chain, and the company is actively working on reducing Scope 3 emissions, which are indirect emissions from suppliers and customers [4]. - Starbucks plans to implement a digital carbon management system to measure the carbon footprint of thousands of products and develop tailored reduction strategies, focusing on key suppliers [5]. - The carbon footprint of a latte is significantly influenced by milk production, which accounts for 80% of its emissions, prompting Starbucks to prioritize sustainable practices in dairy sourcing [5][6]. Group 3: Collaboration with Supply Chain Partners - Supply chain partners are responding positively to Starbucks' sustainability initiatives, with commitments to reduce carbon emissions in milk production by 28% by 2030 [6]. - The logistics sector is also involved in carbon reduction efforts, with plans to electrify delivery vehicles and optimize transportation efficiency in collaboration with Starbucks and Envision [6].