投资策略 | 定期报告 中盘蓝筹系列：大宗涨价的两条主线 策略周度思考 20260201 研究结论 风险提示 市场表现不及预期、风险定价可能不充分、产业发展不及预期。 为什么看好中盘蓝筹——风险评价全球分 化的投资影响：策略周报 202600125 2026-01-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 策略周度思考—中盘蓝筹系列：大宗涨价的两条主线 ⚫ 1.以往涨价路径：贵金属、工业金属、原油化工、农产品 ✓ 主要是建立在全球化、政策协调的背景下，政策宽松后需求渐次复苏导致了上 述传导，而成本推动型更多集中在重大地缘事件。 ⚫ 2.全球化新趋势：全球大宗的新需求 ✓ 当前的情况关键词是两点，国内产业转型以及全球政治变局。从国内产业转型 角度来看，与地产等传统产业相关度过高的大宗品可能依然表现乏力。从全球 政治变局角度来看，新兴经济体发展是未来需求的增量。 ⚫ 3.本轮涨价路径：涨价在外不在内的两条主线 ✓ 结合地缘政治变局、国内转型持续推进的背景，我们认为涨价在外不在内，并 重点看好两条主线。 ✓ ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钨行业月度跟踪 1 月钨价延续强势上涨，矿端供应紧张短期难改 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 本月钨行业市场表现强势，估值大幅提升 20250628 据 Wind 数据，本月1钨行业累计大幅上涨 60.78%，大幅跑赢基准（沪深 300）58.11 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）自月初 37.25x 上升至 57.61x， 当前处于 93.57%2历史分位。 ❑ 本月国内钨产业链价格受资源端推动强势上行，不断创历史新高，国际 钨价同步上行 1 本月行业涨跌幅及价格统计时间区间为 2026/01/01 至 2026/01/29，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2019/12/2 至 2026/01/29，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 《供给约束加强，战略价值凸显》 行业评级：增持（下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as "industrial teeth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metal market in 2025, with tungsten prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and explosive demand growth, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory plummeting from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory left, significantly below the 30-day safety line [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and difficulty in increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China has been reduced by 8.3% to 56,800 tons for 2025, limiting production even as prices rise [4][5]. Demand Explosion - The demand structure for tungsten has fundamentally changed in 2025, with the share of demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30%, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [6][8]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major source of demand growth, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance [8]. - The demand from the electric vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring approximately 2-8 kg of tungsten, and global EV sales expected to grow by 20% in 2025, adding 10,500 tons of tungsten demand [8]. Profit Distribution - The profits from the surge in tungsten prices are not evenly distributed across the industry chain, with upstream resource companies being the biggest winners. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [9][10]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, leading to reduced profit margins for smaller firms [10]. Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with tungsten prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2%-3% from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [11][12]. - Analysts predict that black tungsten concentrate prices will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential for prices to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value sectors such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [13][14]. - The demand growth for tungsten is closely tied to the most promising growth sectors over the next 5-10 years, providing long-term support for tungsten prices and enhancing the investment value of leading companies in the industry [14].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as the "industrial tooth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metals market in 2025, with prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and structural demand explosions, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory dropping from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory, significantly below the 30-day safety line [7][11]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and the difficulty of increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China was set at 56,800 tons for 2025, an 8.3% decrease from the previous year, limiting production even as prices rise [10][11]. Demand Explosion - Demand for tungsten has fundamentally shifted, with the share from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30% in 2025, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [13]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major growth driver, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance. The demand from the new energy vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring 2-8 kg of tungsten [15]. Profit Distribution in the Industry - The profit from rising tungsten prices is unevenly distributed across the industry, favoring upstream resource companies. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [17]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, with some small firms experiencing profit margins dropping below 10% [18]. Future Outlook - The consensus for the tungsten industry in 2026 and beyond is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2-3% annually from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [20][21]. - Analysts predict that the price of black tungsten concentrate will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [21]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the tungsten industry should focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value segments such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [22][23].

Group 1 - The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply as miners hold back inventory, supporting high prices for tungsten products [1][2] - As of January 20, 2026, the price for black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is reported at 520,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 13.0% increase since the beginning of the year [3] - The price for white tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is reported at 519,000 CNY per ton, with a 13.1% increase since the start of the year [4] Group 2 - The price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) in China is reported at 760,000 CNY per ton, up 13.4% year-to-date, while European APT prices range from 987 to 1050 USD per ton (approximately 60.8 to 64.7 million CNY), marking a 10.7% increase [4] - Tungsten powder prices are at 1,230 CNY per kilogram, showing a 13.9% increase since the beginning of the year [4] - The price for tungsten carbide powder is reported at 1,190 CNY per kilogram, with a 14.2% increase year-to-date [5] Group 3 - Tungsten iron prices are reported at 725,000 CNY per ton, reflecting an 11.5% increase since the start of the year [8] - The price for tungsten scrap materials, such as waste tungsten rods and drill bits, has also seen significant increases, with waste tungsten rods priced at 720 CNY per kilogram (up 20.0%) and waste tungsten drill bits at 695 CNY per kilogram (up 19.8%) [10][11] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment in China is stable, with GDP projected to reach 14,018.79 billion CNY in 2025, growing by 5% [12] - The automotive industry is driving demand for tungsten products, particularly in hard alloy tools and wear parts, although the rise of electric vehicles may reduce tungsten usage in traditional cutting tools [12] - In 2025, China's automotive production and sales are expected to reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units, respectively, with new energy vehicles accounting for 47.9% of total new car sales [12]

Summary of Tungsten Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten market, discussing price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory impacts for the years 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends and Influencing Factors - In 2025, the tungsten market experienced significant price fluctuations due to various factors: - Q1: Export control policies led to inventory sell-offs, causing price declines [2]. - Q2: Continued enforcement of export controls and anti-smuggling measures supported domestic prices [2]. - Q3: The introduction of anti-involution policies resulted in increased profits for large enterprises, driving up prices for downstream products like tungsten powder [2][5]. - Q4: Supply tightness in APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) due to tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants pushed prices higher [2][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For 2026, domestic tungsten demand is projected at approximately 75,000 tons, while supply is expected to be around 65,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 10,000 tons [3][24]. - Global demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.5% to 5% [3][24]. - The tungsten concentrate production is expected to continue declining in 2026, even with imports, due to environmental and operational issues affecting supply [1][6]. Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The anti-involution policy aims to prevent unreasonable price increases and is crucial for stabilizing the market [11]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes prohibiting the expansion of low-end production capacity and promoting high-end transformation in the tungsten industry [12]. - Export controls from Japan on tungsten are expected to remain in place, potentially becoming a normalized measure in the context of geopolitical tensions [29]. Future Price Predictions - Market participants predict that tungsten prices could reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 CNY per ton, but this is contingent on policy adjustments [13]. - The valuation of strategic metals like tungsten is expected to be reassessed, reflecting their strategic importance rather than just production costs [13][14]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Current inventory levels among traders and manufacturers are low, with many firms operating with minimal stock due to unexpected price increases [20][22]. - Major traders maintain operational inventories around 200 tons, while social inventory levels are expected to be low overall [21]. Application and Demand Structure - The demand for tungsten in various applications is evolving, with hard alloys remaining the largest segment, followed by materials for photovoltaic and nuclear fusion applications [26][27]. - Emerging industries are expected to have a stronger acceptance of high-priced tungsten products, while traditional sectors may see a reduction in demand [24]. Other Important Insights - The market is closely monitoring the impact of supply-side reforms and environmental regulations on production capabilities [10][14]. - The potential for recycled tungsten to increase in supply is recognized, with current recycling rates expected to rise to meet tightening raw material availability [16]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the tungsten market conference call, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, regulatory impacts, and future market expectations.

Industry Overview - The prices of tungsten products in China have increased, with black tungsten concentrate and white tungsten concentrate rising by 5000 CNY/ton, and tungsten iron and ammonium paratungstate increasing by 10000 CNY/ton [1] - Global supply growth is limited, while demand is driven by emerging industries and increasing safety requirements. China's tungsten ore production growth is slowing, with Kazakhstan and South Korea expected to contribute to supply increases in the short term [1] - The global tungsten supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while global tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [1] Company Insights - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry has established an integrated production system covering exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, powder production, and deep processing, making it one of the few companies in China with a complete industry chain [3] - Zhongjin Lingnan is an integrated enterprise in non-ferrous metal deep processing, with its mining operations holding tungsten metal resources amounting to 16,500 tons [4]

Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported Q4 2025 revenue of $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase and a 1.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 62.3%, driven by strong demand for high-end chips due to the AI computing wave [1] - TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to reach $52-56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations, indicating robust future AI computing demand [1] Tungsten Industry - Domestic prices for tungsten products have increased, with black tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate prices rising by 5,000 yuan/ton and tungsten iron by 10,000 yuan/ton [1] - Global tungsten supply growth is limited, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while demand is expected to grow at 2.61% during the same period, driven by emerging industries [2] Commercial Aerospace - Beijing's Rocket Street project has completed its construction and will serve as China's first commercial aerospace research and production base, offering various shared services for the entire commercial aerospace development chain [3] - The U.S. aims to produce 10,000 Starship spacecraft annually, and the FCC has approved SpaceX's deployment of an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, totaling 15,000 [3] Power Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is set at 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on green transformation and new power system construction [4] - This investment is expected to lead to significant upgrades in China's power system, enhancing energy security and global competitiveness [4] Carbon Fiber Industry - A breakthrough in domestic T1000-grade high-performance carbon fiber has been achieved, with each fiber having 12,000 filaments and a tensile strength exceeding 6,600 MPa, marking a significant advancement in high-end materials [5] - By 2030, China's carbon fiber production capacity is expected to exceed 250,000 tons, with demand in the new energy vehicle sector projected to rise significantly [6] GaN Power Products - Onsemi has signed a collaboration agreement with GlobalFoundries to develop advanced GaN power products, starting with 650V devices, to meet the growing power demands in various sectors [6] - GaN technology is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in applications such as AI data centers and electric vehicles [7]

Group 1 - The price of tungsten has rapidly increased this year, with long-term supply tightening supporting high tungsten prices. As of December 10, 2025, the prices of black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten carbide powder have risen by 157%, 158%, and 180% respectively compared to the beginning of the year. The global tungsten production is concentrated in China, which views tungsten as a strategic resource and has been tightening resource control, leading to sustained high prices in the coming years [1] - Domestic tool manufacturers have been continuously raising prices, with a price increase wave occurring in May, September, and November. Recent price adjustments by foreign brands such as Sandvik, Kennametal, Kyocera, and Sumitomo are expected to enhance the price space for domestic products, making them more competitive [2] - Due to rising tungsten prices, some small and medium-sized tool manufacturers are facing financial pressure, leading to production cuts and shutdowns. This situation is likely to benefit leading brands as market demand shifts towards them. For instance, Okoyi has reported an increase in order volume and product prices in October and November, indicating a trend of rising sales [3] Group 2 - The leading companies in the tool industry are expected to benefit from their strong financial positions and pre-stored raw material inventories, which amplify their cost advantages during the current price increase cycle. This positions them favorably against smaller competitors who are struggling with raw material procurement [3]

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing stable global demand growth at an annual rate of approximately 1.2%, primarily driven by high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and military, consuming about 110,000 tons of pure tungsten annually, equivalent to 220,000 tons of tungsten concentrate [1][3][9] - China dominates global tungsten supply, providing around 80% of the demand, with 2024 native tungsten concentrate production expected to be 133,500 tons, which is insufficient to meet market demand [1][5][27] Key Points on Tungsten Prices - Recent supply-demand changes in the minor metals market have led to a rapid increase in tungsten prices, with 55-degree tungsten concentrate reaching 220,000 yuan per ton and APT prices nearing 330,000 yuan, marking a historical high and an increase of over 50% compared to the average price in 2024 [1][10] - Factors contributing to the price increase include reduced tungsten quotas by the Ministry of Natural Resources, strengthened export controls, significant price hikes in international markets, and increased military demand due to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [1][11][14] Supply Chain Structure - The tungsten industry supply chain consists of upstream (mining, ore dressing, and waste recycling), midstream (tungsten smelting), and downstream (alloy manufacturing) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, China's total tungsten raw material supply is projected to be approximately 204,700 tons, including 134,700 tons of native tungsten, 60,000 tons of recycled tungsten, and 10,000 tons of imported tungsten concentrate [3][16] - There exists a supply gap of about 10,000 tons in the Chinese tungsten market, with both enterprise and social inventories at historical lows [3][22][23] Military Demand Impact - The military sector's direct and indirect consumption of tungsten is significantly increasing, driven by a large-scale arms race, which is expected to further elevate demand for tungsten products [1][13][15] Recycling and Recovered Tungsten - The use of recycled tungsten materials has increased, with some factories using up to 30% recycled materials in 2024, compared to less than 10% five years ago [1][8] - The growth rate of recycled tungsten production is expected to be around 7-8% in 2025, reaching approximately 60,000 tons [17][19] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has intensified efforts to combat the smuggling of scrap metals, which has further tightened market conditions [12] - Strict management of over-extraction has led to cautious behavior among mining companies, impacting current and future native tungsten supply [20][24] Future Outlook - The global demand for tungsten is anticipated to continue rising, particularly due to military spending increases in Europe and other regions, which may lead to sustained price increases [15][41] - The market is expected to remain under supply constraints, with total supply projected to be around 200,000 tons in 2025, while demand is expected to reach approximately 220,000 tons [26][41] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, rising demand driven by military needs, and significant price volatility influenced by regulatory actions and geopolitical factors. The outlook suggests continued pressure on supply and potential for further price increases in the coming years.