2026 年初以来，"涨价" 已成为资本市场最核心的交易主线，这一趋势也不再局限于单一领域，而是渗 透至各行各业，各类涨价资产均成为市场交易焦点。据兴业证券统计，年初至今涨幅居前的 30 个概念 指数中，有 25 个均与涨价逻辑相关。同时涨价的覆盖范围还在持续拓展，正从有色板块向油气、化 工、建材、科技等更多领域延伸。展望全年，"涨价" 既是行业景气度的直观体现，更是推动市场风格 扩散的核心因素，有望成为贯穿全年的投资主线，对于这一逻辑需始终保持高度重视。 年初以来涨幅居前的概念指数，几乎全部与"涨价"相关（标红为与"涨价"相关的概念） Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院 今日钢铁ETF延续强势，本周累计上涨10.64%。本周钢铁板块表现亮眼主要受供需两端的催化。需求 侧，重点城市地产政策利好有望出台，夯实需求预期。 供给侧，2026年有收缩预期，铁矿有让利空间；预计行业将加速进入优胜劣汰阶段。2月8日，工信部发 布了《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》，文件属于钢铁行业行业规范，属于偏职能性的引导文件；2 月26日，工信部公示符合《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》的首批企业名单。预计相关部门将持续推 进钢 ...

据同花顺ifind数据，截至2月25日，上海现货的钨铁价格已经突破至102.25万元/吨。与去年同期（21.68万元/吨）相比涨了3.7倍！ 中钨在线数据显示，2026年开年至今，黑钨精矿价格已达70.5万元/吨，较年初上涨53.26%；仲钨酸铵(APT)报105万元/吨，较年初上涨 56.72%，价格均创下历史新高。 可能很多人都没想到，2025-2026年大宗商品市场中，表现最突出的并非黄金、锂矿，而是被誉为"工业牙齿"的战略金属——钨。 2025年全年，钨价涨幅已超过220%，比同期黄金表现更为疯狂。 更可的是，这个涨势在今年继续飙涨。 这也难怪A股钨金属股成为年内表现最强品种之一。年内，翔鹭钨业涨幅159.34%，章源钨业涨幅达136%，中钨高新涨超112%。 从全球钨市场的供给格局来看，中国无疑占据着核心地位，而海外产能的缓慢释放，难以填补国内供给收缩留下的缺口。 2024年，中国的钨储量占全球52%，产量占83%，是全球最主要的钨供应国。 不过， 2025年起，国内进一步收紧钨资源管控，环保、安全督查严格限制表外矿山产出，供给总量明显收缩；2025年国内钨精矿（三氧化 钨含量65%）第一批开采总量 ...

可能很多人都没想到，2025-2026年大宗商品市场中，表现最突出的并非黄金、锂矿，而是被誉为"工业牙齿"的战略金属——钨。 2025年全年，钨价涨幅已超过220%，比同期黄金表现更为疯狂。 更可的是，这个涨势在今年继续飙涨。 据同花顺ifind数据，截至2月25日，上海现货的钨铁价格已经突破至102.25万元/吨。与去年同期（21.68万元/吨）相比涨了3.7倍！ 中钨在线数据显示，2026年开年至今，黑钨精矿价格已达70.5万元/吨，较年初上涨53.26%；仲钨酸铵(APT)报105万元/吨，较年初上涨 56.72%，价格均创下历史新高。 这也难怪A股钨金属股 成为年内表现最强品种之一。 年内， 翔鹭钨业涨幅159.34%， 章源钨业涨幅达136%，中钨高新涨超112%。 01 与部分大宗商品的短期上涨不同，这两年钨价的持续走高，是政策、资源、需求多重因素共同作用的结果，而且这一供需格局短期内难以改 变。 从全球钨市场的供给格局来看，中国无疑占据着核心地位，而海外产能的缓慢释放，难以填补国内供给收缩留下的缺口。 钨的应用领域已从传统的特钢、硬质合金，逐步延伸至新能源、军工、半导体等高端领域。 其中，光伏钨 ...

Group 1: Historical Price Trends - Historical price trends of commodities follow a sequence: precious metals, industrial metals, petrochemicals, and agricultural products[9] - Since 1970, there have been five significant commodity bull markets, defined by a price increase of over 50%[10] - The typical price increase sequence occurs in less than one quarter for precious metals, about two quarters for petrochemicals, and approximately one quarter for agricultural products[12] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Current market dynamics are influenced by domestic industrial transformation and global political changes[28] - Commodities closely tied to traditional industries, such as real estate, are expected to perform poorly due to reduced demand elasticity[30] - Emerging economies are expected to drive future demand growth, with a decoupling from developed economies observed[30] Group 3: Price Increase Pathways - The current price increase is characterized by external rather than internal factors, focusing on two main lines: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[43] - The first main line involves price increases driven by industrialization in emerging economies, which is expected to continue due to China's support[44] - The second main line is influenced by geopolitical risks, which can directly threaten commodity prices and create cost transmission effects[44] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report is optimistic about the price outlook for the chemical and agricultural sectors while being conservative about commodities closely related to the real estate chain[44] - Risks include market performance falling short of expectations, insufficient pricing of geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in industry development[45]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is upgraded to "Overweight" from "Buy" due to rapid valuation increases and optimistic expectations reflected in stock prices [5]. Core Insights - The tungsten industry has shown strong market performance with a significant valuation increase, outperforming the benchmark index [2]. - Domestic tungsten prices have reached historical highs, driven by tight supply at the mining level and rising prices for long-term contracts [3]. - The supply chain remains constrained by tight raw material availability, leading to limited demand release and reduced transaction volumes [6]. Price Statistics - In January 2026, the average price of 65% black tungsten concentrate increased by 26.69% month-on-month to 510,600 CNY/ton, and by 254.75% year-on-year, with the increase from December 2025 expanding by 72.05 percentage points [5]. - The average price of 65% white tungsten concentrate rose by 26.76% month-on-month to 508,700 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 256.66% [5]. - The average price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) increased by 26.2% month-on-month to 751,400 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 254.53% [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten concentrate has slightly decreased, with weekly production dropping from 1,880 tons to 1,870 tons [6]. - The production of APT is estimated to increase by 5.88% in January 2026, but the overall supply remains constrained due to tight raw material availability [6]. - Demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with limited room for growth as rising raw material prices suppress downstream replenishment [6]. Profitability Analysis - Mining profits are expanding due to resource scarcity and price increases, with simulated gross profit for tungsten concentrate reaching 334,900 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 40.77% [6]. - The midstream refining sector is also seeing steady profit growth, while downstream processing and alloy sectors are experiencing profit pressure due to lagging price transmission [6]. Investment Recommendations - The long-term outlook for the tungsten industry is positive, with supply constraints expected to strengthen due to declining ore grades and increased mining costs [6]. - Short-term expectations indicate that tight supply conditions will likely persist, supporting strong tungsten concentrate prices [6]. - Continued focus is recommended on companies with rich tungsten resources and integrated industrial layouts, particularly those investing in deep processing and emerging product areas [7].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as "industrial teeth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metal market in 2025, with tungsten prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and explosive demand growth, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory plummeting from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory left, significantly below the 30-day safety line [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and difficulty in increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China has been reduced by 8.3% to 56,800 tons for 2025, limiting production even as prices rise [4][5]. Demand Explosion - The demand structure for tungsten has fundamentally changed in 2025, with the share of demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30%, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [6][8]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major source of demand growth, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance [8]. - The demand from the electric vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring approximately 2-8 kg of tungsten, and global EV sales expected to grow by 20% in 2025, adding 10,500 tons of tungsten demand [8]. Profit Distribution - The profits from the surge in tungsten prices are not evenly distributed across the industry chain, with upstream resource companies being the biggest winners. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [9][10]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, leading to reduced profit margins for smaller firms [10]. Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with tungsten prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2%-3% from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [11][12]. - Analysts predict that black tungsten concentrate prices will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential for prices to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value sectors such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [13][14]. - The demand growth for tungsten is closely tied to the most promising growth sectors over the next 5-10 years, providing long-term support for tungsten prices and enhancing the investment value of leading companies in the industry [14].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as the "industrial tooth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metals market in 2025, with prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and structural demand explosions, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory dropping from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory, significantly below the 30-day safety line [7][11]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and the difficulty of increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China was set at 56,800 tons for 2025, an 8.3% decrease from the previous year, limiting production even as prices rise [10][11]. Demand Explosion - Demand for tungsten has fundamentally shifted, with the share from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30% in 2025, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [13]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major growth driver, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance. The demand from the new energy vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring 2-8 kg of tungsten [15]. Profit Distribution in the Industry - The profit from rising tungsten prices is unevenly distributed across the industry, favoring upstream resource companies. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [17]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, with some small firms experiencing profit margins dropping below 10% [18]. Future Outlook - The consensus for the tungsten industry in 2026 and beyond is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2-3% annually from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [20][21]. - Analysts predict that the price of black tungsten concentrate will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [21]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the tungsten industry should focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value segments such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [22][23].

Group 1 - The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply as miners hold back inventory, supporting high prices for tungsten products [1][2] - As of January 20, 2026, the price for black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is reported at 520,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 13.0% increase since the beginning of the year [3] - The price for white tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is reported at 519,000 CNY per ton, with a 13.1% increase since the start of the year [4] Group 2 - The price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) in China is reported at 760,000 CNY per ton, up 13.4% year-to-date, while European APT prices range from 987 to 1050 USD per ton (approximately 60.8 to 64.7 million CNY), marking a 10.7% increase [4] - Tungsten powder prices are at 1,230 CNY per kilogram, showing a 13.9% increase since the beginning of the year [4] - The price for tungsten carbide powder is reported at 1,190 CNY per kilogram, with a 14.2% increase year-to-date [5] Group 3 - Tungsten iron prices are reported at 725,000 CNY per ton, reflecting an 11.5% increase since the start of the year [8] - The price for tungsten scrap materials, such as waste tungsten rods and drill bits, has also seen significant increases, with waste tungsten rods priced at 720 CNY per kilogram (up 20.0%) and waste tungsten drill bits at 695 CNY per kilogram (up 19.8%) [10][11] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment in China is stable, with GDP projected to reach 14,018.79 billion CNY in 2025, growing by 5% [12] - The automotive industry is driving demand for tungsten products, particularly in hard alloy tools and wear parts, although the rise of electric vehicles may reduce tungsten usage in traditional cutting tools [12] - In 2025, China's automotive production and sales are expected to reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units, respectively, with new energy vehicles accounting for 47.9% of total new car sales [12]

Summary of Tungsten Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten market, discussing price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory impacts for the years 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends and Influencing Factors - In 2025, the tungsten market experienced significant price fluctuations due to various factors: - Q1: Export control policies led to inventory sell-offs, causing price declines [2]. - Q2: Continued enforcement of export controls and anti-smuggling measures supported domestic prices [2]. - Q3: The introduction of anti-involution policies resulted in increased profits for large enterprises, driving up prices for downstream products like tungsten powder [2][5]. - Q4: Supply tightness in APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) due to tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants pushed prices higher [2][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For 2026, domestic tungsten demand is projected at approximately 75,000 tons, while supply is expected to be around 65,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 10,000 tons [3][24]. - Global demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.5% to 5% [3][24]. - The tungsten concentrate production is expected to continue declining in 2026, even with imports, due to environmental and operational issues affecting supply [1][6]. Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The anti-involution policy aims to prevent unreasonable price increases and is crucial for stabilizing the market [11]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes prohibiting the expansion of low-end production capacity and promoting high-end transformation in the tungsten industry [12]. - Export controls from Japan on tungsten are expected to remain in place, potentially becoming a normalized measure in the context of geopolitical tensions [29]. Future Price Predictions - Market participants predict that tungsten prices could reach 800,000 to 1,000,000 CNY per ton, but this is contingent on policy adjustments [13]. - The valuation of strategic metals like tungsten is expected to be reassessed, reflecting their strategic importance rather than just production costs [13][14]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Current inventory levels among traders and manufacturers are low, with many firms operating with minimal stock due to unexpected price increases [20][22]. - Major traders maintain operational inventories around 200 tons, while social inventory levels are expected to be low overall [21]. Application and Demand Structure - The demand for tungsten in various applications is evolving, with hard alloys remaining the largest segment, followed by materials for photovoltaic and nuclear fusion applications [26][27]. - Emerging industries are expected to have a stronger acceptance of high-priced tungsten products, while traditional sectors may see a reduction in demand [24]. Other Important Insights - The market is closely monitoring the impact of supply-side reforms and environmental regulations on production capabilities [10][14]. - The potential for recycled tungsten to increase in supply is recognized, with current recycling rates expected to rise to meet tightening raw material availability [16]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the tungsten market conference call, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, regulatory impacts, and future market expectations.

Industry Overview - The prices of tungsten products in China have increased, with black tungsten concentrate and white tungsten concentrate rising by 5000 CNY/ton, and tungsten iron and ammonium paratungstate increasing by 10000 CNY/ton [1] - Global supply growth is limited, while demand is driven by emerging industries and increasing safety requirements. China's tungsten ore production growth is slowing, with Kazakhstan and South Korea expected to contribute to supply increases in the short term [1] - The global tungsten supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while global tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [1] Company Insights - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry has established an integrated production system covering exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, powder production, and deep processing, making it one of the few companies in China with a complete industry chain [3] - Zhongjin Lingnan is an integrated enterprise in non-ferrous metal deep processing, with its mining operations holding tungsten metal resources amounting to 16,500 tons [4]