智通财经APP获悉，国投证券发布研报称，今年以来钨价快速上涨，长期看供给收紧支撑钨价高位运 行。2025Q3刀具龙头经营拐点已现，行业公司业绩端收入及利润均上行。考虑到钨价上涨带来的刀具 顺价存在时滞性，龙头企业低价库存优势将在四季度及后续陆续体现，该行看好国产刀具业绩弹性。 国投证券主要观点如下： 今年以来钨价快速上涨，长期看供给收紧支撑钨价高位运行 钨铁是刀具的关键原材料，今年以来钨制品市场报价持续上涨，根据中钨在线，截至2025年12月10日， 黑钨精矿、APT、碳化钨粉价格相较年初分别上涨157%、158%、180%。全球80%的钨矿产量集中在中 国，我国长期将钨金属视为战略资源，近年持续加大钨矿开采资源管控，在供给持续紧缩，以及光伏、 军工、PCB钻针等新兴需求较为强劲的影响下，未来几年钨价有望维持高位运行态势。 国产刀具持续提价，年末外资调价进一步提高国产价格空间 国内刀具企业价格机制相对灵活，刀具售价与原材料价格关联度较高，今年5月、9月和11月行业先后出 现涨价潮。近期山高、肯纳、京瓷、住友等欧美日韩品牌陆续发布涨价函，将在2025年12月-2026年2月 期间上调价格体系。考虑到外资刀具客户 ...

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing stable global demand growth at an annual rate of approximately 1.2%, primarily driven by high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and military, consuming about 110,000 tons of pure tungsten annually, equivalent to 220,000 tons of tungsten concentrate [1][3][9] - China dominates global tungsten supply, providing around 80% of the demand, with 2024 native tungsten concentrate production expected to be 133,500 tons, which is insufficient to meet market demand [1][5][27] Key Points on Tungsten Prices - Recent supply-demand changes in the minor metals market have led to a rapid increase in tungsten prices, with 55-degree tungsten concentrate reaching 220,000 yuan per ton and APT prices nearing 330,000 yuan, marking a historical high and an increase of over 50% compared to the average price in 2024 [1][10] - Factors contributing to the price increase include reduced tungsten quotas by the Ministry of Natural Resources, strengthened export controls, significant price hikes in international markets, and increased military demand due to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [1][11][14] Supply Chain Structure - The tungsten industry supply chain consists of upstream (mining, ore dressing, and waste recycling), midstream (tungsten smelting), and downstream (alloy manufacturing) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, China's total tungsten raw material supply is projected to be approximately 204,700 tons, including 134,700 tons of native tungsten, 60,000 tons of recycled tungsten, and 10,000 tons of imported tungsten concentrate [3][16] - There exists a supply gap of about 10,000 tons in the Chinese tungsten market, with both enterprise and social inventories at historical lows [3][22][23] Military Demand Impact - The military sector's direct and indirect consumption of tungsten is significantly increasing, driven by a large-scale arms race, which is expected to further elevate demand for tungsten products [1][13][15] Recycling and Recovered Tungsten - The use of recycled tungsten materials has increased, with some factories using up to 30% recycled materials in 2024, compared to less than 10% five years ago [1][8] - The growth rate of recycled tungsten production is expected to be around 7-8% in 2025, reaching approximately 60,000 tons [17][19] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has intensified efforts to combat the smuggling of scrap metals, which has further tightened market conditions [12] - Strict management of over-extraction has led to cautious behavior among mining companies, impacting current and future native tungsten supply [20][24] Future Outlook - The global demand for tungsten is anticipated to continue rising, particularly due to military spending increases in Europe and other regions, which may lead to sustained price increases [15][41] - The market is expected to remain under supply constraints, with total supply projected to be around 200,000 tons in 2025, while demand is expected to reach approximately 220,000 tons [26][41] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, rising demand driven by military needs, and significant price volatility influenced by regulatory actions and geopolitical factors. The outlook suggests continued pressure on supply and potential for further price increases in the coming years.

Industry Overview - The tungsten market prices have continued to rise, with domestic black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten iron prices reported at 179,000 yuan, 260,000 yuan, and 265,000 yuan per ton respectively, marking increases of 25%, 23.5%, and 24.4% since the beginning of the year [1] - A new round of price adjustments by institutions and tungsten enterprises has enhanced market bullish sentiment, supporting the upward trend in tungsten prices [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources issued a total mining quota of 58,000 tons for tungsten in April, which is a reduction of 4,000 tons and 5,000 tons compared to 2024 and 2023 respectively [1] - The quality of tungsten ore in China has declined, with tungsten ore and concentrate grades decreasing from 0.42% and 66.57% in 2004 to 0.28% and 56.08% in 2020, further limiting capacity release [1] - There has been no significant increase in domestic supply in recent years, and overseas supply from Bakuta and Sandong tungsten mines may be lower than expected, reinforcing tight supply logic [1] Company Insights - Zhongtung High-tech is a leading comprehensive supplier of hard alloy tools in China, forming a complete tungsten industry chain that includes tungsten mining, smelting, hard alloys, and deep processing [3] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry leverages its tungsten resource advantages and integrated industry chain layout, continuously enhancing its competitiveness in the high-end hard alloy products sector [4]