证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略周报 宏观短周期略拐头，A 股实现"开门红" ——2026.01.05-2026.01.09 日策略周报 核心要点： A 股实现"开门红" 分析师：仇华 2026 年第一周，A 股实现"开门红"。据 Wind 数据，2026.01.05-2026.01.09 日，我们关注的 6 个 A 股指数震荡上行，最终：上证指数上涨 3.82%、深 证成指上涨 4.40%、创业板指上涨 3.89%、沪深 300 上涨 2.79%、科创综指 上涨 10.18%、万得全 A 上涨 5.11%。 投资建议 长维度来看，2026 年是"十五五"开局年份，中央经济工作会议给出的政 策基调保持 2025 年的积极态势，将为我国产业升级营造宽松的政策环境， 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 A 股走出"开门红"行情，原因有：一是发改委在"两新"领域提前发力，结 合此前 5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具支持项目落地，但受冬季施工淡季影 响，实物工作量或推迟至 2026 年初集中释放，大概率能够推动固定资产投 资增速短期转向；二是 12 月 PMI、PPI、CP ...

Market Overview - On December 16, the A-share market opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3815 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3824.81 points, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51% to 12914.67 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,483 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Consumer, diversified finance, automotive, and real estate sectors performed well, while precious metals, shipbuilding, power equipment, and wind power sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with commercial retail, education, diversified finance, and food and beverage sectors showing the highest gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.89 times and 48.54 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with short-term focus on aerospace, consumer, automotive, and diversified finance sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas recession impacting domestic economic recovery, domestic policy and economic recovery progress falling short of expectations, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[4]

Core Points - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4000.14 points, down 0.07%, and a total trading volume of 840.47 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62 points, down 0.36%, with a trading volume of 1104.57 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3122.03 points, down 0.39%, with a trading volume of 487.83 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - The insurance sector led the gains with an increase of 2.70%, totaling a trading volume of 368.86 million hands and a transaction value of 14.52 billion yuan [2] - The pharmaceutical retail sector rose by 2.58%, with a trading volume of 699.34 million hands and a transaction value of 10.03 billion yuan [2] - The oil and gas extraction and services sector increased by 2.53%, with a trading volume of 1558.39 million hands and a transaction value of 9.44 billion yuan [2] Declining Sectors - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw the largest decline at -3.51%, with a trading volume of 5351.29 million hands and a transaction value of 92.81 billion yuan [2] - The wind power equipment sector decreased by 2.13%, with a trading volume of 1006.21 million hands and a transaction value of 12.44 billion yuan [2] - The new metal materials sector fell by 2.03%, with a trading volume of 424.90 million hands and a transaction value of 9.38 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3812.22 points, an increase of 0.13% [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a trading volume of 821.11 billion yuan - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68 points, up by 0.38%, with a trading volume of 1157.01 billion yuan - The ChiNext Index ended at 2904.27 points, rising by 1.27%, with a trading volume of 563.11 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Oil and gas extraction and services, with a rise of 3.64%, total trading volume of 1117.98 million hands, and a net inflow of 7.66 billion yuan - Film and television industry, increasing by 3.12%, with a trading volume of 1741.65 million hands and a net inflow of 9.67 billion yuan - Communication services, up by 2.71%, with a trading volume of 3398.14 million hands and a net inflow of 24.23 billion yuan [2] - The sectors with declines included: - Non-metallic materials, down by 1.91%, with a trading volume of 124.03 million hands and a net outflow of 2.79 billion yuan - Energy metals, decreasing by 1.88%, with a trading volume of 487.06 million hands and a net outflow of 11.60 billion yuan - Battery sector, down by 1.45%, with a trading volume of 4684.42 million hands and a net outflow of 54.73 billion yuan [2]

Market Performance - The A-share market continues to rise, with all three major indices showing strength and a total market turnover of 2.1 trillion yuan in half a day [1] - The CSI A500 index increased by 1.5%, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.4%, the ChiNext index climbed by 2.2%, and the STAR Market 50 index gained 2.4% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also saw a rise of 2.1% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include rare earths, non-ferrous metals, AI hardware, liquor, real estate, and wind power equipment [1] - Underperforming sectors include beauty care, clothing, and automobile manufacturing [1] Valuation Metrics - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the index is reported at 10.5 times, with a valuation percentile of 64.1% since its inception in 2002 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The event aimed to enhance communication between listed companies in Xinjiang and investors, focusing on financial reports, operational planning, risk management, investor protection, and sustainable development [1][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The online collective reception day for investors was held on May 22-23, 2024, with participation from over 200 staff from 61 listed companies in Xinjiang [1]. - The event featured expert lectures and discussions under the theme "Compliance Foundation, Technology Empowerment" [1][11]. Group 2: Regulatory and Governance Insights - Zhao Peng, Deputy Director of the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, emphasized the importance of investor relations management and the need for listed companies to enhance governance, information disclosure, and core competitiveness [3][10]. - The event served as a platform for listed companies to showcase their commitment to transparency and investor engagement [3][6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2024, Xinjiang's listed companies had a total share capital of 115.575 billion shares and a total market value of 777.81 billion yuan, with total assets of 34,310.92 billion yuan and net assets of 8,796.15 billion yuan [7]. - The companies collectively raised over 760 billion yuan through equity and debt financing, significantly contributing to the region's economic development [7]. Group 4: Investor Engagement - During the event, investors posed 1,518 questions, with companies responding to 1,341, resulting in an overall response rate of 88.34% [8]. - The high engagement level reflects the commitment of Xinjiang's listed companies to maintain open communication with investors [8]. Group 5: Awards and Recognition - The Xinjiang Listed Company Association announced that three companies were recognized in the "2024 Best Practices in Investor Relations Management" by the China Listed Company Association [12]. - Awards were also given to individuals and companies for excellence in governance and ESG disclosures, highlighting the region's focus on improving corporate governance standards [12].