十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店 摄 / 宋婕 当前，IP 衍生品已经成为传播文化内容、提供独特体验、聚集线上线下受众的重要载体。 今年夏天，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店在广州开设，选址在日均客流量超 10 万的正佳广场，不远处正是在 2017 年以 84.4 万人 次成为全国单日客流量最高站点的体育西路地铁站。 第一财经观察到，这种将 IP 衍生品商店设在 " 商业地标 + 交通枢纽 " 的区位，以最大程度来扩大受众面的经营模式，已在多类文体旅活动中 得以应用。在 AI 技术和社交文化的推动下，IP 衍生品销售在这一基础上又呈现出新的发展趋势。 IP 衍生品推动情绪消费需求抬升 如今，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品零售店就已在包括北京在内的全国多个城市开设了两百余家，大多位于地标、景区、机场、高铁站和 地铁站。此前，相关负责人公开表示，这些零售店都是宣传推广十五运会和残特奥会的窗口。 " 苏超 " 赛事线下唯一的快闪门店，也已经于 8 月 6 日在南京南站开业，店内汇集了 72 个品类、103 款周边产品，涵盖赛事周边文创、纪念 品、潮玩盲盒以及融合江苏非遗元素的特色商品。 IP 衍生品的产销， ...

今年夏天，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店在广州开设，选址在日均客流量超10万的正佳 广场，不远处正是在2017年以84.4万人次成为全国单日客流量最高站点的体育西路地铁站。 2025.08. 21 本文字数：3626，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 宋婕 当前，IP衍生品已经成为传播文化内容、提供独特体验、聚集线上线下受众的重要载体。 第一财经观察到，这种将IP衍生品商店设在"商业地标+交通枢纽"的区位，以最大程度来扩大受众面 的经营模式，已在多类文体旅活动中得以应用。在AI技术和社交文化的推动下，IP衍生品销售在这 一基础上又呈现出新的发展趋势。 十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店 摄/宋婕 IP衍生品推动情绪消费需求抬升 如今，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品零售店就已在包括北京在内的全国多个城市开设了两百余 家，大多位于地标、景区、机场、高铁站和地铁站。此前，相关负责人公开表示，这些零售店都是宣 传推广十五运会和残特奥会的窗口。 "苏超"赛事线下唯一的快闪门店，也已经于8月6日在南京南站开业，店内汇集了72个品类、103款周 边产品，涵盖赛事周边文创、纪念品、潮玩盲盒以及融合江苏非遗元素的 ...

Core Insights - The IP derivative products have become essential carriers for cultural content dissemination, unique experiences, and audience engagement both online and offline [1] - The market for IP derivative products is transitioning from rapid growth to structural differentiation, driven by frequent cultural and sports events and the emotional value preferences of Generation Z [4] Group 1: Market Trends - The official licensed merchandise stores for the 15th National Games and the Special Olympics have opened over 200 locations across major cities, primarily in landmarks and transportation hubs [2] - The sales of IP derivative products are maturing, with companies like Guangdong Ha Yi Dai Toy Co., Ltd. serving as licensed producers and retailers for major events [2][3] - The integration of traditional scenes with IP derivative products is becoming more common, enhancing marketing and promotional efforts [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The target demographic for trendy toys includes young adults aged 18 to 35, who appreciate cultural stories and design [3] - A significant portion of customers at the IP derivative stores for the 15th National Games and "Su Chao" events are adults, indicating a broader appeal beyond children [3] Group 3: Strategic Development - The IP derivative market is characterized by a "high heat, low barrier, weak sustainability" contradiction, with many companies treating it as a short-term profit tool [4] - Long-term success in the IP derivative market requires a shift from "traffic dependence" to "value accumulation," creating a closed-loop ecosystem of content, derivatives, experiences, and user engagement [4] Group 4: Policy Support - National and local policies are increasingly supporting the design, production, and sales of IP derivative products, promoting the integration of traditional culture into product design [8][9] - Initiatives in provinces like Shandong and Hubei encourage independent development and cross-industry collaboration in cultural creative product development [8][9] Group 5: Future Directions - Companies are focusing on enhancing the full-chain development and channel layout of IP derivatives, with strategic partnerships for innovative product development [10] - The future of IP derivatives lies in creating unique, narrative-driven products that resonate with consumers, leveraging technology for enhanced engagement [9][10]

当前，IP衍生品已经成为传播文化内容、提供独特体验、聚集线上线下受众的重要载体。 今年夏天，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店在广州开设，选址在日均客流量超10万的正佳广 场，不远处正是在2017年以84.4万人次成为全国单日客流量最高站点的体育西路地铁站。 第一财经观察到，这种将IP衍生品商店设在"商业地标+交通枢纽"的区位，以最大程度来扩大受众面的 经营模式，已在多类文体旅活动中得以应用。在AI技术和社交文化的推动下，IP衍生品销售在这一基础 上又呈现出新的发展趋势。 十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店 摄/宋婕 IP衍生品推动情绪消费需求抬升 如今，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品零售店就已在包括北京在内的全国多个城市开设了两百余家， 大多位于地标、景区、机场、高铁站和地铁站。此前，相关负责人公开表示，这些零售店都是宣传推广 十五运会和残特奥会的窗口。 "苏超"赛事线下唯一的快闪门店，也已经于8月6日在南京南站开业，店内汇集了72个品类、103款周边 产品，涵盖赛事周边文创、纪念品、潮玩盲盒以及融合江苏非遗元素的特色商品。 IP衍生品的产销，已然是相当成熟的业态。广东哈一代玩具股份有限公司是十五运会的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the IP derivatives industry, indicating a new round of investment opportunities due to rising IP popularity and market trends [6][8]. Core Insights - Sanrio's Q1 FY 2026 results show total revenue, operating profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 49%, 88%, and 38% respectively, driven by the growing popularity of Sanrio characters globally and increased foot traffic in domestic stores and theme parks [3][8]. - The company has raised its FY 2026 earnings forecast, with total sales, operating profit, and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year adjusted to 836 billion yen, 350 billion yen, and 247 billion yen, reflecting increases of 33%, 48%, and 29% respectively [8]. - Sanrio's strategic initiatives include leveraging "evergreen" IPs, expanding its IP matrix, and pursuing globalization to mitigate cyclical risks and ensure stable growth [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the period of April to June 2025, Sanrio's revenue growth was attributed to the increasing global appeal of its characters and the influx of both foreign tourists and domestic customers to its stores and theme parks [3][8]. - Revenue growth by region includes Japan (38%), Europe (200%), North America (23%), Latin America (89%), and Asia (85%), with operating profit growth in the same regions being 58%, 529%, 133%, 106%, and 133% respectively [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Sanrio is focusing on enhancing its IP derivatives through events like the 50th anniversary of Melody and the 20th anniversary of Kuromi, alongside the launch of new content on platforms like Netflix [8]. - The company aims to strengthen its licensing model globally and improve profitability through data-driven product selection and brand collaborations [8]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the IP derivatives sector, highlighting recent successful events and the potential for continued product launches and content development [8]. - The report notes that the recent market corrections have likely absorbed pessimistic expectations, and companies with strong IP management and product innovation capabilities are expected to maintain long-term growth [8].

Core Insights - The rapid development of the IP industry reflects structural changes in demand and the maturity of the supply chain, with young consumers seeking emotional expression and instant gratification, leading to the evolution of the "Guzi Economy" [2][3] - The domestic derivative market is projected to exceed 1,000 billion yuan by 2024, driven by the popularity of leading IPs like "Nezha," which exhibit significant elasticity in influence [2][3] - The financial health of IP companies has improved, providing a foundation for external investments, while the supply chain's maturity allows for capacity release in the industry [1][2] Industry Trends - Long-term evolution paths for IP companies include transitioning from single head content to IP matrix platforms and deep operational management, with a focus on diversifying income and extending IP value [3] - Companies are enhancing their awareness of multi-form development and are making strategic changes to evolve from content creators to operators through extensive licensing, self-operation, and strategic partnerships [3] - The future of IP companies is expected to see accelerated industrial production capabilities, with a dual leap in content scale and quality through capacity upgrades and technological innovation [4] Strategic Focus - Companies are advised to build a networked value structure through "multiple income pillars + multiple regional markets," emphasizing resource integration and product iteration [4] - The cultivation of IP as a core asset capable of transcending economic cycles is anticipated, highlighting the importance of strategic positioning within the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report highlights that Sanrio's performance fluctuations were primarily due to reliance on short-term external factors for IP explosions and a lack of long-term mechanisms to sustain IP popularity, particularly the dependence on a few IPs like Hello Kitty. The management reform, diversification of the IP matrix, and deepening operations at various IP levels are the core drivers of the company's sustained growth post-2021. The global licensing business and local operations have also played a crucial role, with Sanrio strengthening social media operations in North America and deepening cooperation with Alibaba in China to capture explosive industry potential [2][10][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sanrio focuses on designing and operating cartoon character IPs, owning numerous original characters like Hello Kitty, Cinnamoroll, and Kuromi. For FY 3/2025, the revenue breakdown is 34% from merchandise retail, 55% from licensing, 9% from theme parks, and 2% from other businesses. Revenue contributions from Japan, Europe, North America, and Asia are 78%, 4%, 20%, and 19%, respectively [6][18]. Historical Performance Review - Sanrio's performance can be divided into three phases: 1. FY 3/2009-FY 3/2014 was a high-growth period, with revenue peaking at 770 billion yen and a 27% operating profit margin, heavily reliant on Hello Kitty, which accounted for 76% of revenue. 2. FY 3/2015-FY 3/2021 saw a long adjustment period due to declining popularity of Kitty and failure to successfully incubate new IPs, leading to a drop in revenue and profit. 3. From FY 3/2022 to FY 3/2025, under new leadership, Sanrio initiated a "second entrepreneurship," implementing structural reforms and achieving a CAGR of 40% in total revenue and 173% in operating profit [7][29]. Future Outlook - For FY 3/2026, Sanrio expects double-digit revenue growth, with projections of total revenue, operating profit, and net profit at 162.2 billion yen, 60 billion yen, and 42 billion yen, respectively, representing increases of 12%, 16%, and 1%. The company anticipates growth in all regions, particularly in Asia, with a focus on expanding licensing and local operations [9][54][55]. Strategic Initiatives - Sanrio plans to build a "long-lasting" IP strategy, expand its IP matrix, and pursue global development to mitigate cyclical risks and ensure stable growth. The company aims to reduce reliance on Hello Kitty by diversifying its IP portfolio and enhancing profitability through global licensing expansion and data-driven product selection [10][54][58].

Core Insights - The Chinese entertainment industry is experiencing a divergence, with Damai Entertainment's stock price rising by 91% year-to-date, while Maoyan Entertainment's stock price has fallen by 10% [1][5]. Company Performance - Damai Entertainment has successfully diversified its business by shifting focus from movie ticketing to IP derivatives and offline entertainment activities, projecting a revenue growth of 33% to 6.7 billion RMB for FY2025 [4][13]. - In contrast, Maoyan Entertainment is heavily reliant on the domestic film market, expecting a revenue decline of 14% to 4.1 billion RMB for 2024 due to a 23% drop in movie box office revenue [4][15]. Strategic Differences - The divergence in stock performance is attributed to the fundamental differences in strategic direction between the two companies. Damai's transformation has allowed it to capture the benefits of consumer upgrades and post-pandemic entertainment demand, while Maoyan's reliance on the film market has left it vulnerable [6][15]. - Damai's revenue from movie-related activities is expected to constitute only 37% of its total revenue by FY2026, whereas Maoyan's movie-related revenue will account for over 80% [6][15]. Market Growth and Projections - The offline performance market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 81% from 2022 to 2024, with market revenue expected to reach 80 billion RMB in 2024 [7][8]. - Damai is estimated to achieve 2.1 billion RMB in event ticketing revenue in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 2.5 billion RMB and 3 billion RMB in FY2026 and FY2027, respectively [8][10]. Financial Outlook - Damai's adjusted EBITA is projected to grow by 61% to 809 million RMB for FY2025, with revenues expected to reach 8 billion RMB in FY2026 and 9.3 billion RMB in FY2027, exceeding market consensus by 4% and 7% [13][14]. - Conversely, Maoyan's adjusted EBITA is forecasted to plummet by 70% to 328 million RMB for 2024, with revenues expected to grow only 8% and 4% in FY2025 and FY2026, respectively, falling short of market consensus by 9% and 13% [15][18]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for Damai with a target price of 1.2 HKD, while downgrading Maoyan to "neutral" with a target price of 6.8 HKD, reflecting cautious expectations for Maoyan's future performance [6][19].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and the overall positive sentiment in the media industry, highlighting the need to focus on certainty assets and optimistic outlooks for 2025 [2][3]. Game Industry - The game industry has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 17% in the first five months of 2025, totaling 1411.06 billion yuan [30]. - Mobile games have particularly thrived, generating 1052.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase year-on-year [30]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape is easing, with major companies like Tencent and NetEase reducing their sales expenses significantly in Q1 2025, indicating a potential for improved profitability [32][39]. IP Derivatives - The domestic IP derivatives market is rapidly growing, driven by structural opportunities from consumer transitions, with companies like Pop Mart expanding successfully in international markets [7][30]. - The report highlights the differentiated competition among leading players in various segments of the IP derivatives market [30]. Publishing - The publishing sector is advised to focus on high-dividend and certainty assets, with recommendations for companies that show strong cash dividend capabilities or potential changes in AI/IP business margins [7][30]. Advertising and Marketing - The advertising sector is witnessing resilience in offline media, particularly with companies like Focus Media, which is expected to see improved profitability due to a better competitive landscape [7][30]. - The report notes that AI is likely to enhance the performance of marketing companies, with a focus on basic fundamentals improving as the macro environment stabilizes [7][30]. Film and Television - The film industry is currently facing challenges with a lack of major new releases post-Spring Festival, leading to a low box office outlook for the summer season [7][30]. - There are potential opportunities for bottom-fishing in stocks with favorable odds for summer releases, with recommendations for companies like Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film [7][30]. Education - The education sector is experiencing heightened demand for quality training, particularly in K12 education, with a focus on major training institutions that are expected to see high revenue growth [7][30]. - The report mentions the competitive landscape in the public examination sector, where leading companies are maintaining strategic focus and delivering quality products [7][30]. Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the media sector, with recommendations for stocks like Mango Excellent Media and Wanda Film, indicating their potential for growth based on current and projected earnings [8][30].