（原标题：凯文?凯利：意外之美｜我们的四分之一世纪） 编者按： 2025 年，经济观察报以 " 我们的四分之一世纪 " 为年终特刊主题，旨在通过数十位时代亲历者 的故事，共绘一幅属于这段岁月的集体记忆图谱。 二十一世纪的第一个25年即将结束之际，我问凯文·凯利（KK），有哪些发展超乎他的想象？又有哪些 低于他的预期？他简单地将答案归结为"意外之快""意外之慢"，以及"意外之路"。 这三大意外也让我们意识到，前瞻未来时，我们往往会低估创新者的颠覆性，因此必须跳出线性思维； 我们也会在一厢情愿中忽略木桶原理；当然，也会有意外之喜，因为另辟蹊径常常带来爆炸式的后果。 归根结底，未来既充满不确定性，也蕴藏诸多可能性，发现意外之美是最大的快乐。 一、 意外之快：智能手机的"非线性爆发" "我没想到智能手机会吃掉一切"——智能手机普及的速度与广度——是KK最直观的意外。2007年 iPhone问世时，多数人将其视为更精致的功能机；但短短十年间，它不仅完成了全球数十亿级的渗透， 更以吞噬一切的姿态重构了产业格局：相机、MP3、导航仪、钱包乃至电脑的功能，被压缩进方寸屏 幕；社交媒体、移动支付、网约车等新生态，借由手机的普及 ...

近日， Manus 公司联合创始人 Stephan van den Brink 接受《Building Deep Tech》专访，完整分享了其 从跨界求学、创业试错到深耕 VR 与机器人手部交互技术的十年发展历程。 荷兰的教育模式更侧重于学生在标准化考试中的表现，而 不是 个人兴趣与潜能的挖掘。由于 Stephan不擅长 语言学科，在升学分流中，他被归入了经济学与法律的学习轨道。尽管内心始终向往工程领域，但当时荷兰的 教育路径具有极强的刚性 ， 一旦在中学阶段选择了经济学方向，后续再转向工程类专业的难度极大，几乎没 有可行的通道。 就这样， Stephan顺应体系安排，在 fiscal law（财政法）领域深耕了六年。期间，他进入全球知名的专业 服务公司安永（Ernst & Young）担任税务顾问，为不同行业、不同规模的企业提供税务咨询服务。这段职业 生涯让他深入了解了企业的运营逻辑、财务规划、合规要求等核心商业知识，看似与工程热爱无关，却在潜移 默化中为他日后创业积累了关键的"商业素养" 。 如何搭建公司架构、如何进行成本控制、如何对接客户需 求，这些经验都成为了他后来构建 Manus公司的重要铺垫。尽管 ...

Now, the big tech story of the day is Meta. The stock's higher on a report that said the company is considering cutting the Metaverse Group's budget by as much as 30%. The stock has been under pressure lately on concerns about its massive spending and latest earnings.Meta raised the low end of total expenses for the year to $116 billion. Joining me now is Mike Pru, uh, research director at Forester, and Lloyd Walmsley, senior research analyst for Missouo. Lloyd, uh, just to clarify here, this isn't a a cons ...

Core Insights - The Eastern China region has shown remarkable economic growth in the first three quarters of the year, with 30 key cities experiencing steady economic increases, indicating a reshaping of regional competition dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Qingdao's Economic Performance - Qingdao leads with a growth rate of 7.86%, driven by its status as a national marine economy demonstration zone, where marine production value accounts for over 33% of the city's total economy [1][2] - The city has seen a 12% growth in the smart home industry, supported by leading companies like Haier and Hisense, and a 9.5% increase in high-end equipment manufacturing due to over 120 key projects with investments exceeding 100 billion [1][2] Group 2: Wenzhou's Economic Transformation - Wenzhou has surpassed Xuzhou, showcasing the vitality of its private economy, with a 17% increase in the core digital economy sector and a 3.2 percentage point rise in profit margins for traditional industries through digital and intelligent upgrades [4][5] - The city has a 67% share of private investment in total investment, attracting over a thousand technology companies and achieving a 24% increase in patent authorizations [5] Group 3: Nanchang's Economic Growth - Nanchang's economy has crossed the 570 billion mark, with significant contributions from strategic emerging industries, particularly in VR and aerospace equipment, and over 20 billion in new investments from Huawei's local headquarters [6][9] - The city's manufacturing tax contributions grew by 14%, with a notable 32% increase in sales of Jiangling's new energy vehicles, and the integrated circuit industry surpassing 50 billion [9] Group 4: Regional Innovation and Development - Cities like Hangzhou and Jinhua have achieved over 10% economic growth, with innovation as a core driver; Hangzhou's digital economy constitutes 48% of its economic structure, while Jinhua's cross-border e-commerce transactions grew by 35% [9][10] - The average R&D investment intensity among the top 30 cities in Eastern China has risen to 3.2%, surpassing the national average, highlighting the importance of converting technological achievements into productive forces [9][10]

Core Insights - The "2025 World VR Industry Conference · Huawei Ecosystem Forum" was held in Nanchang, focusing on the integration of AI and XR technologies to empower various industries and usher in a new digital era [1][3][13] Group 1: Government and Industry Initiatives - Jiangxi Province is embracing a "dual spiral" development model of AI and XR, promoting a comprehensive industry chain layout with practical applications like the "AI digital human" at the Tengwang Pavilion and a metaverse agricultural demonstration base that doubled tomato yields [3] - Nanchang has developed a complete VR industry ecosystem with 260 VR companies, achieving a total revenue of 87.1 billion yuan in 2024, significantly boosted by Huawei's deep involvement in the local industry [5] - Huawei's commitment to building a solid digital foundation in Jiangxi includes enhancing industry planning and talent ecosystems through collaboration [7] Group 2: Technological Insights and Innovations - Academics and industry leaders shared insights on the evolution of AI and its intrinsic connection to the metaverse, emphasizing the need to address challenges in visibility and accuracy, with virtual reality technology playing a crucial role [8] - A lightweight solution for large-scale WebVR was proposed to tackle high hardware and experience costs, enhancing online interactive experiences through efficient cloud rendering techniques [10] - Huawei is developing end-to-end solutions for spatial computing, positioning XR devices as future core terminals, and demonstrating real-world applications like the Nanchang site navigation project [10] Group 3: AI and XR Integration - Huawei's Ascend computing business is focused on providing robust and efficient computing power for AI applications, emphasizing an open strategy to foster a prosperous ecosystem [11] - Partners showcased innovative practices based on Huawei's technology, such as the "Xinghan" industry model integrating multimodal capabilities in finance and power sectors, and cloud-based high-performance applications for home entertainment [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The forum highlighted the vast potential of AI and XR integration, with Huawei aiming to strengthen its digital foundation and industry ecosystem in collaboration with global partners, paving the way for a new era of spatial computing [13]

Core Insights - The integration of traditional culture with cutting-edge technology is creating innovative experiences at the 19th Cultural Expo, showcasing digital technology, AI creativity, and immersive experiences as key themes [3][4] - The event serves as a vivid definition of future lifestyles, moving beyond imagination to reality [3] Group 1: Technological Innovations - Zhejiang University and China Academy of Art presented distinct styles at the expo, focusing on the theme of "Technology Empowering Culture" and exploring the possibilities of technology in daily life [4] - The exhibits included advanced robotics, such as a robot playing the piano and autonomous flying robots, illustrating the practical application of academic research in industry [5] - The China Academy of Art's section highlighted the collaboration between various industries and AI, showcasing the potential of AI in transforming artistic expression across multiple domains [5] Group 2: Cultural Integration - The "Digital Art of Patterns" exhibition featured interactive elements where traditional patterns transformed in real-time, merging thousands of traditional design elements with digital technology and AI [6] - The exhibition encouraged audience participation, allowing visitors to create unique visual works and purchase culturally inspired products, thus integrating traditional motifs into modern life [6] - This digital art exhibition not only enhanced the technological aspect of "Guochao" (national trend) but also revitalized traditional patterns as dynamic cultural symbols [6] Group 3: Local Innovations - Various districts showcased impressive technological displays, including VR experiences and AI health diagnostics, enhancing the cultural experience for visitors [8] - The immersive VR experience of the Liangzhu site allowed participants to engage with ancient civilization, bridging the gap between past and present [8] - New technologies like 3D scanning and low-altitude flying devices expanded the methods of cultural dissemination, contributing to the growth of the cultural tourism industry [8][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming events and announcements related to the Chinese economy and markets, including the release of economic data and changes in commodity prices [11][17][21] - It highlights the scheduled release of the trade balance for September and the impact of oil price adjustments on domestic fuel prices [9][12] - The article mentions the introduction of stock options for Pop Mart by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a move towards more diverse financial instruments in the market [11] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release data on the national economy for the first three quarters, which will provide insights into economic performance [17] - The article notes the significance of the upcoming Nobel Prize announcements and their potential impact on global markets [8][13] - It also references the ongoing developments in the real estate market, particularly the monthly report on urban residential sales prices [19]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant disparity in investment outcomes among investors who employed a systematic investment strategy in index funds, with over 60% of investors in the CSI 300 index experiencing losses, averaging an 8.7% decline, while a different group achieved a 12% annualized return [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Errors - Investors commonly made two critical mistakes: selecting the wrong assets and mismanaging investment timing [1][3]. - Many investors fell into the "chasing hot spots" trap, investing in high-volatility sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, which led to substantial losses [3][4]. - For instance, a renewable energy index fund saw its net value drop from 2.5 yuan in September 2022 to 1.8 yuan in August 2025, resulting in an 11% loss for consistent investors [3][4]. Group 2: Comparison of Investment Outcomes - Broad-based index funds, such as the CSI 300, emerged as the "winners" in systematic investment strategies, yielding a 5.2% annualized return despite market downturns [4][10]. - In contrast, thematic funds averaged a -3.8% return during the same period, underscoring the importance of asset selection [4][10]. Group 3: Valuation Considerations - A common error among investors was neglecting valuation, leading to blind investments without considering price rationality [6][7]. - The CSI 300 index experienced significant valuation fluctuations, with its price-to-earnings ratio ranging from 12 to 15 during the investment period, affecting returns based on timing of investments [6][7]. - An investor who adjusted their investment based on valuation metrics achieved a 14% profit, while another who did not lost 5% [6][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance investment outcomes, investors should prioritize selecting "evergreen" assets and avoid sectors with high cyclicality or rapid technological changes [4][12]. - Implementing a dynamic investment strategy based on valuation metrics can significantly reduce average costs and improve returns [7][10]. - Investors are advised to regularly assess their investment choices and adjust their strategies according to market conditions and asset valuations [12].

Group 1: Digital Trade Expo Highlights - The Fourth Global Digital Trade Expo opened in Hangzhou, showcasing AI and robotics as major attractions [1] - The "Smart Future" theme area featured six companies from Hangzhou, collectively demonstrating their technological achievements in a scenario-based manner [2] Group 2: Innovations in Robotics - Strong Brain Technology introduced a smart bionic leg that collects weak nerve and muscle electrical signals to assist users in walking naturally across different terrains [2] - Unitree Technology showcased its Unitree G1 robot, capable of dancing and performing martial arts, emphasizing the potential of AI and robotics in various sectors [2] - Tai Xi Intelligent presented a wearable exoskeleton that aids users in carrying heavy loads while climbing or walking, utilizing mechatronics technology for real-time support [2][3] Group 3: Market Applications and Collaborations - Tai Xi Intelligent's consumer-grade exoskeleton is priced between 5,000 to 6,000 yuan and is available for rental in tourist areas at 20 to 30 yuan per hour [3] - The company is collaborating with SF Express to deploy its products in logistics centers to assist with cargo handling [3] Group 4: Cleaning Robotics - Star Species Robotics unveiled the world's first "human-robot collaboration" cleaning robot, capable of performing 3D space cleaning tasks autonomously [3] - This robot is equipped with a water tank and cleaning tools, allowing it to identify stains and utilize various cleaning functions, currently deployed in public areas like airports and metro stations [3] Group 5: VR Technology in Entertainment - The expo featured new entertainment consumption scenarios supported by digital and VR technologies, which were well-received by attendees [4] - Time Space Elf showcased a VR experience allowing users to interact with various dinosaur species, enhancing user engagement through immersive technology [5][7]

Core Insights - The event in Xiamen showcased over 100 interactive science popularization projects, emphasizing hands-on experiences in various scientific fields [1][2] - Xiamen has integrated diverse scientific resources and established a collaborative framework involving government, society, and digital empowerment to enhance science popularization [2][3] - The city has seen significant achievements in youth science competitions, with local participants winning a majority of awards in national events, reflecting the effectiveness of its science education initiatives [2] Group 1 - The National Science Popularization Month event featured innovative applications from local tech companies, universities, and research institutions, providing an engaging platform for public interaction [1] - Over 400 science popularization volunteer service activities were conducted during the month, targeting schools, communities, enterprises, and rural areas [1][2] - The event included a variety of activities such as science education, technology training, and community experiments, creating a feedback loop for continuous improvement [1] Group 2 - Xiamen has prioritized science popularization as a key strategy to enhance urban innovation capabilities and improve the scientific literacy of its citizens [2][3] - Policies encourage universities and research institutions to open their facilities and convert research outcomes into popular science resources, aligning with local industrial development [3] - The city has made significant progress in global technology rankings, moving up 31 places in three years, indicating a strong correlation between science popularization and technological innovation [3]