2025.8.22 上证指数收盘上涨54.66点，涨幅为1.45%，报收3825.76点，成交额10950.91亿元；深证成指收盘上涨 246.3点，涨幅为2.07%，报收12166.06点，成交额14516.18亿元；创业板指收盘上涨87.08点，涨幅为 3.36%，报收2682.55点，成交额6977.4亿元；沪深300收盘上涨89.93点，涨幅为2.1%，报收4378.0点， 成交额6759.35亿元。 板块层面，芯片、半导体、证券等多数板块表现强势，红利、养殖等个别板块表现稍弱。沪深两市成交 额超2.5万亿，场外资金进场积极。A股连续8日成交额破2万亿元。盘面上，个股上涨家数略多，全市场 超2800只个股上涨，约2400只下跌。 站在当下，操作上建议"一动不如一静"，恐高离场和盲目追高均并不理智，一旦出现回调或可大胆加 仓。一方面，上涨趋势并没有结束的信号，空间上的压力并不能阻挡趋势的推进，甚至之前的套牢盘成 为了多头资金的目标位。但另一方面，随着一个多月来的持续大涨，技术面已经逐渐进入超买区间，当 下追涨的赔率并不具备优势。 展望后市，如此斜率并不可能一直持续，预计会逐渐转入震荡，在高位构建新的筹码 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in China is experiencing a significant recovery in the first half of the year, as evidenced by the performance forecasts of several A-share gaming companies, with many reporting substantial profit growth or turning losses into profits [1][2]. Financial Performance - ST华通 (Century Huatong) is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan, representing a growth of 107.20% to 158.00% [2] - 浙数文化 (ZheShu Culture) anticipates a net profit of 330 million to 390 million yuan, with a growth of 124% to 165% [2] - 游族网络 (Youzu Network) forecasts a net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, marking an increase of 768.75% to 1203.13% [2] - 完美世界 (Perfect World) and 冰川网络 (Icefire Network) are expected to turn losses into profits, with 完美世界 projecting a profit of 480 million to 520 million yuan [2][6] - ST凯文 (ST Kevin) expects to maintain a loss level similar to last year, with a projected loss of 65 million to 48 million yuan [2] - 电魂网络 (Dianhun Network) anticipates a loss of 11 million to 7.5 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [2] Cost Control as a Key Factor - Cost control has emerged as a critical factor for gaming companies to avoid losses, with companies like 完美世界 and 冰川网络 attributing their turnaround to reduced investment in underperforming projects [1][4] - High distribution costs have made it challenging for gaming companies to maintain profitability [2][3] Market Environment - The number of game licenses issued in the first half of the year has significantly increased compared to last year, with the domestic mobile game market growing by 20% year-on-year [1][7] - The gaming market is characterized by intense competition, with a focus on product quality as a determinant of success [1][8] Long-term Products and New Releases - Long-standing products are crucial for the stability of gaming companies, providing a solid revenue base amid market growth [7] - New blockbuster games remain essential for driving rapid revenue growth, as seen with ST华通's new release, which has performed exceptionally well in the market [9][10] Industry Trends - The gaming industry is witnessing a recovery in market sentiment, with a notable increase in the issuance of domestic game licenses and the integration of AI technology enhancing operational efficiency [8] - The upcoming release of major titles from leading companies is expected to intensify market competition [10]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw collective gains on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.75%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15,391.16 billion yuan [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as defense, telecommunications, and electronics led the gains, while banking, transportation, and environmental protection lagged behind. Notable concept sectors included military equipment restructuring and optical packaging, which performed well, while housing inspection and gold concepts faced declines [2][6] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 0.08%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.56%. Internationally, all three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up by 0.52%, the S&P 500 up by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.75% [2][6] Important News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a change in the consumption tax policy for ultra-luxury cars, lowering the tax threshold to 900,000 yuan starting July 20, 2025. New energy vehicles will also be included in this tax category [3][7] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed significant legislation regarding cryptocurrency regulation, including the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act" and the broader "Clarity Act," aimed at creating a favorable regulatory framework for digital assets [3][7] Industry Analysis - In June 2025, six key mobile games were launched, with "Silver and Crimson" and "Dragon Soul Traveler" standing out in performance. The overall retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the growth rate compared to the previous month [8][12] - The gaming industry is expected to maintain a stable issuance of game licenses in 2025, with a continuous release of product reserves and a stable market environment, suggesting promising performance for new games [11][12] - The retail sales data indicates a mixed performance across different categories, with home appliances, cultural office supplies, and furniture showing significant growth, while categories like beverages and cosmetics faced declines [13][15]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak near 3500 before retreating, closing at 3472.32, up 0.32% with a trading volume of 567.24 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 10508.76, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% to 2156.23, with respective trading volumes of 861.32 billion and 420.45 billion [1] - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as gaming, financial services, semiconductor equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and robotics saw declines [1] Technical Analysis - A clear "breakout-pullback-rally" pattern has emerged, indicating a strong market sentiment despite profit-taking pressures near previous highs [2] - The market's trading focus has shifted upward, supported by various key moving averages and critical levels, suggesting a continuation of the strong high-level consolidation [2] Economic Context - The easing of the US-China tariff dispute and the introduction of "anti-involution" policies signal a potential resolution to the "supply-demand mismatch" clouding the Chinese economy [4] - Recent meetings between US and Chinese officials have led to the resumption of exports of key products to China, indicating a positive shift in trade relations [4] Investment Strategy - A "dividend + growth" strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend-paying sectors and growth-oriented stocks that are expected to benefit from economic recovery and liquidity easing [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider sectors like coal and consumer goods, which are aligned with the dividend strategy, alongside growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly banks, securities, and insurance, has shown strong performance, with ETFs reflecting significant gains [6][9] - High dividend yields and a rebalancing of public fund allocations are driving interest in bank stocks, which currently have a yield exceeding 5% [6] - The ongoing consolidation in the securities industry, with major mergers and acquisitions, is enhancing market optimism and improving competitive dynamics [8] Gaming Industry Insights - The gaming sector is witnessing a dual development path focusing on "IP + quality," with successful titles boosting market sentiment [10][11] - The frequency of game license approvals has increased, providing a supportive environment for industry growth [11] - The integration of generative AI is expected to lower development costs and enhance profitability, further driving the sector's valuation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gaming market continues to show strong growth, driven by new product launches and a shift from long-term product commercialization to new product contributions [3][4]. Domestic Market - In May 2025, the actual sales revenue of the Chinese gaming market reached 28.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.56%. This growth rate has slowed compared to previous months but remains robust [3]. - The mobile gaming market in May 2025 generated actual sales revenue of 21.177 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.96%. Key new releases have started to emerge, with several games achieving monthly revenues exceeding 10 million yuan [4]. - The client game market saw actual sales revenue of 5.819 billion yuan in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.58%. The growth was primarily driven by new and recently launched products [5]. - The upcoming summer season is expected to see a significant increase in new game launches, with over 30 titles planned, covering various genres [6]. Overseas Market - In May 2025, the actual sales revenue of China's self-developed games in overseas markets reached 1.577 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.50% [8]. - Strategy games (SLG) remain the core category driving overseas revenue, with product structures continuously optimizing. Notably, the game "Kingshot" saw its revenue double compared to the previous month [8]. - New genres, including female-oriented and synthesis games, are emerging in the overseas market, contributing to revenue growth and diversification [8].

Game Releases - Eagle Horn Network's "Pom Pom" launched on June 2, featuring a buyout multiplayer cooperative adventure gameplay with over 15,000 concurrent players on its first day and received "Very Positive" ratings on Steam [1] - NetEase's "Frostpunk: The Last Haven" launched on June 5, adapting the core survival and moral choice experience of the original PC game for mobile, introducing new modes [3] - Purple Dragon's idle card game "Dragon Soul Traveler" launched on June 6, featuring a unique comedic harem theme and a semi-real-time strategy combat system [4] - Night Street Games announced "Last Flag," a 5v5 team shooting game set to release in 2026 on Windows PC, focusing on fast-paced gameplay and key moments [5] Game Shutdowns - Ubisoft announced the shutdown of the free-to-play shooter "Hyper Scape" on June 3, after only 9 months of operation, highlighting a negative case in long-term game management [6] - Tencent's classic mobile game "Chinese Paladin Online" officially closed its servers on June 2, ending nearly 8 years of operation, with compensation available for players [7] Awards and Recognition - "Infinite Warmth," developed by Paper Games, won the "Visual Design" award at the 2025 Apple Design Awards, recognized for its unique open-world gameplay focused on collecting clothing [8] Industry Collaborations - Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra became the first Chinese automotive brand to join the "Gran Turismo" series, collaborating with Polyphony Digital to create "Vision Gran Turismo" [9] Console Launch - Nintendo's Switch 2 officially launched on June 5, with over 400,000 pre-orders on JD.com, priced around 4,000 yuan, and eligible for national subsidies [11] Events - The 2025 Summer Game Fest kicked off in Los Angeles on June 7, featuring over 60 exhibitors and live streaming to global audiences, with major announcements from Nintendo and Xbox [12] Corporate Developments - Hero Sports invested in a new cyber-robotics company, expanding its presence in the esports industry, which is a leading operator of major esports events [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.74% from May 24 to May 30, 2025, ranking 6th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [12][18] - The Chinese gaming market reached a size of 27.351 billion yuan in April 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.93% and a month-on-month increase of 2.47% [25][27] - The film industry generated a total box office of 208 million yuan in the latest week, with "Lilo & Stitch" leading the box office [36][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which decreased by 0.03% [12] - Notable performers included Yuanlong Yatu, Times Publishing, and Youzu Network, with respective weekly increases of 30.90%, 21.67%, and 15.84% [18][19] Industry Key Data AI Applications - Kuaishou's Q1 performance showed a global user base of over 22 million for its AI product, with quarterly revenue reaching 150 million yuan [2] Gaming Data - The mobile gaming market in April 2025 was valued at 20.424 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.41% [25] - The overseas revenue from self-developed games reached 1.554 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.62% [25] Film Data - The top three films in the latest week were "Lilo & Stitch," "Dumpling Queen," and "Hunter's Game," with respective box office earnings of 81.44 million yuan, 33.29 million yuan, and 29.23 million yuan [36][37] Industry Key Events and Announcements - Kuaishou launched the Tian Gong Super AI APP, marking a significant step in AI applications [42] - Tencent released a voice model for its Claude chatbot, enhancing user interaction capabilities [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 1.74% from May 24 to May 30, 2025, ranking 6th among industries, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [12][18] - The Chinese gaming market reached a size of 27.351 billion yuan in April 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.93% and a month-on-month increase of 2.47% [25][27] - The film industry generated a total box office of 208 million yuan in the latest week, with "Lilo & Stitch" leading the box office [36][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which fell by 0.03% [12] - Notable performers included Yuanlong Yatu, Times Publishing, and Youzu Network, with respective weekly increases of 30.90%, 21.67%, and 15.84% [18][19] Industry Key Data AI Applications - Recent developments include the launch of the Tian Gong Super Intelligent APP by Kunlun Wanwei and the release of various AI models by Tencent and DeepSeek [22][42] Gaming Data - The mobile gaming market in April 2025 reached 20.424 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.41% [25][27] - Notable new game releases included Tencent's "Victory Goddess: New Beginning" and "Courageous Land" [25][33] Film Data - The total box office for the week was 208 million yuan, with "Lilo & Stitch" earning 81.44 million yuan, accounting for 39.0% of the total [36][37] Industry Events and Announcements - Kunlun Wanwei launched the Tian Gong Super Intelligent APP, marking a significant step in AI applications [42] - Kuaishou reported Q1 earnings with total revenue of 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [42]