文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周迎来元旦假期。 A股没有开盘。 不过在美股场内有追踪A股指数的ETF，周五也普遍上涨。 美股场内的沪深300ETF，周五上涨1.43%。 周一到周三，全球股票市场下跌。 周四元旦假期。 周五A股放假，不过美股、港股等有交易。 周五全球股票市场普遍上涨。 全球股票指数上涨0.74%。 港股周一到周三微跌，不过周五港股大幅上涨，迎来2026年开门红。 恒生指数上涨2.76%，恒生科技指数上涨4%。 美股中概股上涨更多一些，上涨4.64%，近期人民币相对美元升值，以美元计价的人民币资产涨幅会更高一些。 代表海外投资者认为A股周五也应该上涨这个幅度。 不过具体涨幅还要看元旦后A股的实际表现了。 2. 内地投资港股的基金，周五放假，所以基金净值没有更新。 不过周五的收益也没有丢失。 这部分会体现在周一的基金净值中。 也就是，1月5日周一，港股基金的净值，会同时更新"假期里+周一"的合并涨跌幅。 3. 人民币资产上涨原因，也跟最近人民币汇率强势有 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 这周全球股票市场先下跌后反弹。 美股市场，非美股市场微涨微跌，波动不大。 这周周一到周三，全球市场略有下跌，到周四周五反弹了一些。 2. 本周前半段全球市场下跌，原因也跟日元加息有关。 这也是因为当时80-90年代，日本家庭负债率过高，大量的资金在泡沫的价格，投入到了日本股票、房地产等上面。 之后用了20多年的时间，才逐渐消化掉杠杆。 在日本动画《蜡笔小新》中，也有这个桥段：小新的爸爸广志，1990年的时候，背负了32年的贷款。 1990年前后，刚好是日本房地产估值最高的阶段。之后日本房地产很多出现腰斩级别的下跌，但负债还是存在的。 本周日元加息落地，日元加息25BP，小幅加息，符合市场预期。 日元加息其实并不是黑天鹅事件，叫灰犀牛可能更合适。 （PS：黑天鹅是市场难以提前预料的、影响很大的风险；灰犀牛则是市场都看得见的。） 因为日元的利率提升并不是今年才出现的。 日元为了刺激经济，利率从80年代最高的8.5%上下，一路下降到2015年的 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing popularity of "Fixed Income +" investment products, which combine traditional fixed income assets with a small portion of equities or convertible bonds to achieve stable returns while reducing volatility risk [5][6][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - "Fixed Income +" funds typically include secondary bond funds and mixed bond funds, which leverage the negative correlation between stocks and bonds to enhance returns [5]. - The demand for "Fixed Income +" products is expected to rise as traditional fixed income yields decline, prompting investors to seek alternatives that offer stable returns without increasing risk [6]. - The strategy of "Fixed Income +" focuses on asset allocation between stocks and bonds, with a rebalancing approach that allows for capturing average annual returns while minimizing overall volatility [8]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article discusses the impact of declining interest rates on investment choices, highlighting that lower yields on traditional savings and bonds have led investors to explore "Fixed Income +" options [6][10]. - It notes that the current market conditions, characterized by a recovery in corporate earnings, could support continued market growth if the positive trend persists [22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The article addresses the psychological aspects of consumer spending during events like "Double Eleven," suggesting that awareness of behavioral biases can lead to more rational consumption decisions [10]. - It introduces the concept of self-restraint as a method to improve investment patience, advocating for strategies like dollar-cost averaging to enhance long-term investment outcomes [10][26]. Group 4: Financial Products - The "365-day advisory portfolio" has recently achieved new highs, primarily investing in bond funds and outperforming average returns in its category [19]. - The article also highlights the importance of understanding different investment styles, such as growth versus value stocks, and their respective strategies for profit-taking [24][25]. Group 5: Educational Resources - The article provides links to various educational resources, including a PDF compilation of essential articles for further learning on investment strategies and market analysis [2][4]. - It also mentions the release of a new edition of a well-regarded investment book, which has gained significant attention in the market [29][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics and investment strategies associated with growth and value stocks, particularly in relation to their performance during bull and bear markets, as well as their lifecycle stages. Group 1: Growth and Value Stock Characteristics - Companies exhibit different growth and value characteristics based on their lifecycle stages [2] - Growth stocks tend to have high volatility and can experience significant price increases or decreases [8][9] - Value stocks generally show lower volatility and often follow a "slow bull" trend, with more stable and gradual price increases [5][6] Group 2: Market Behavior and Lifecycle Impact - The differences in price movement between growth and value stocks are linked to their lifecycle stages [14] - Growth stocks are typically in the early stages of their lifecycle, characterized by high potential for growth but also significant uncertainty [15][16] - Value stocks are usually in the later stages of their lifecycle, representing mature industries with stable financial metrics and lower growth potential [23][24] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Techniques - Investment strategies differ for growth and value stocks due to their distinct price behaviors [30] - For growth stocks, investors should be prepared for high volatility and should take profits when stocks become overvalued to avoid significant losses in bear markets [31] - Value stocks require less active management regarding profit-taking, as they tend to have stable valuations and can be held for dividends over the long term [32][33]

Core Insights - The article provides a summary of key investment strategies and insights for October, focusing on various investment portfolios and market conditions [1][2]. Investment Strategies - The article introduces a free investment guide titled "Fund Investment Advisory Guide," which aims to help readers understand fund advisory and investment strategies [2]. - The "Screw Nail Gold Nail Treasure Index Enhanced Advisory Portfolio" has outperformed the CSI 800 Index by 5.49% as of August 2025, indicating its effectiveness in generating returns [4]. - The "Screw Nail Gold Nail Treasure Active Selection Advisory Portfolio" has outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 6.94% as of August 2025, showcasing the benefits of selecting high-quality fund managers [4]. - The "Screw Nail Silver Nail Treasure Monthly Salary Advisory Portfolio" employs a balanced stock-bond strategy, maintaining a 40:60 ratio, and has shown significant excess returns since its inception [5]. - The "Screw Nail Silver Nail Treasure 365-Day Advisory Portfolio" focuses on a conservative allocation of 15% stocks and 85% bonds, outperforming the secondary bond fund index by 3.01% as of August 2025 [6]. - The "Screw Nail Silver Nail Treasure 90-Day Advisory Portfolio" primarily invests in short-term bond funds, achieving returns that exceed the CSI Money Market Fund Index [7]. Market Insights - The article discusses the characteristics of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, emphasizing the importance of avoiding impulsive trading and focusing on long-term investments [15]. - It highlights the current low valuation of the consumer sector, which has been underperforming but is expected to recover as valuations have decreased significantly [16]. - The article explains the impact of high tariffs on investments, suggesting that while they may cause short-term volatility, they do not significantly affect long-term investment strategies [21]. Investment Principles - The article outlines the four principles of value investing, which include understanding that buying stocks means buying companies, maintaining a margin of safety, recognizing market fluctuations, and operating within one's circle of competence [22]. - It emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and rebalancing strategies to manage market volatility and enhance returns [22]. Additional Resources - The article mentions the creation of a "Screw Nail Index Map" to help investors quickly reference various indices, including their codes, selection rules, and industry distributions [13]. - It also introduces the "Screw Nail Gold Star Rating" and "Bull-Bear Signal Board" for assessing gold asset valuations and market conditions [12].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with A-shares slightly up by 0.41% and European markets generally down [2][3][4] - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase of over 20% this month, attributed to the APEC summit, following a period of undervaluation [4][5] - Since the Federal Reserve entered a rate-cutting cycle in September last year, global stock markets have benefited from increased liquidity, leading to higher valuations [6][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October, aligning with market expectations, but indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [8][9][10] - Market concerns arose regarding the potential uncertainty of a December rate cut, with current expectations placing the probability at around 50-60% [12] - Long-term projections suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower rates, as the current rate of around 4% is considered too high for the dollar [14][15] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, reported a record cash reserve of 381.67 billion yuan in Q3 [18][26] - Buffett's investment strategy is influenced by Benjamin Graham, focusing on increasing stock allocations when markets are undervalued and shifting to cash and bonds when markets are overvalued [19][20] - Over the past two years, as U.S. stocks have risen, Buffett has found fewer buying opportunities, leading to a continuous increase in cash and bond holdings [21][24] Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that previous undervaluation phases occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the current rating around 2.9 stars [33][34] - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been launched to simulate similar investment effects [36][37] Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [42][43] - The book includes updated data over nearly 30 years and introduces new chapters, reinforcing the idea that stocks are the best long-term investment tool [42][43]

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced an overall increase this week, particularly outside the US, where gains exceeded 2% [2][4][28] - European markets, including France and Germany, saw significant increases, generally surpassing 2% [5] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 3.88%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 6.9%, marking its largest weekly gain in six months [7][8] Group 2 - The US stock market showed only slight gains, with the recent employment data indicating a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with market expectations of an increase [3][14] - This disappointing employment data may suggest potential signs of economic recession or stagnation, although it is not definitive [15][16] - If economic data continues to underperform, it could lead to a decrease in US dollar interest rates, benefiting asset valuations [19][23] Group 3 - The decline in the US dollar index this week is favorable for non-US assets, as a weaker dollar typically enhances the attractiveness of these investments [25][26][28] - The A-share market remained closed during this period, but both Hong Kong stocks and US-listed Chinese companies saw substantial increases, reflecting the positive sentiment from the anticipated decline in US interest rates [30][31] Group 4 - Historical data indicates that the global stock market has previously entered undervalued phases, with current valuations around 3.0 stars, suggesting potential investment opportunities [38] - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but the company offers a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across various markets [41][42] Group 5 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been highly influential in the investment field for over 30 years, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for wealth accumulation [47][48] - The book provides extensive data on the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the notion that stocks are the best long-term investment tool [48][49]

Global Market Overview - The global stock market experienced a slight decline this week, with US and global stock indices down by 0.4-0.5% [2] - The A-share market remained resilient, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1%, leading global gains [3] - European and Asia-Pacific stock markets generally saw declines, with notable volatility in markets like India, which dropped by 2.6% [5][6] Tariff Concerns - Increased volatility in global stock markets was noted in the latter half of the week, linked to Trump's renewed tariff discussions [7] - Starting October 1, tariffs of 50% will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathrooms, and building materials, 30% on imported furniture, and 100% on patented and branded pharmaceuticals [8] - These tariff announcements have raised short-term market concerns, particularly affecting markets with high export ratios [9][10] Historical Context - A previous tariff crisis in April led to a significant undervaluation of the global stock market, which was later seen as a good investment opportunity [14][15] - The global stock market indices recovered from the April lows, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading the recovery from May to August [19][20] Impact of Tariffs on the Dollar - The increase in tariffs is viewed as a double-edged sword for the dollar, potentially hindering inflation reduction and affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [21][22] - High tariffs are primarily seen as negotiation tools rather than final objectives, with limited actual implementation expected [24][25] Investment Opportunities - The current market fluctuations may present opportunities for undervalued assets, similar to the investment phase following the April tariff crisis [28][29] - A global stock market star rating chart indicates previous undervaluation phases in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the market currently around 3.0 stars [30][31] Global Index Investment Options - There are substantial global stock index funds available in overseas markets, totaling over a trillion dollars, but such options are limited in mainland China [33] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [34] Book Release - A new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has gained significant popularity, ranking first in sales on major platforms [39] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides comprehensive insights into market knowledge and strategies [40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the behavioral patterns of retail investors that often lead to losses during bull markets. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock market indices experienced an overall increase this week [2] - The US stock market rose by 1.2% this week [3] - Non-US markets saw a slight increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted the market [5] - However, the benefits of rate cuts are often anticipated before the actual announcement [6] - Markets had already priced in the expectation of rate cuts in July and August, leading to significant gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - The statement that bull markets are a primary reason for retail investor losses may seem counterintuitive but reflects reality [13] - Investors tend to open accounts and invest during bull markets, often at high prices, leading to losses when the market corrects [20][21] - The tendency to chase rising stocks and sell during downturns contributes to retail investor losses [25] Group 4: Trading Frequency and Investment Strategy - Frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities, especially in a structurally bullish market where different sectors lead at different times [26] - Investors who trade based on short-term movements may find themselves losing money despite overall market gains [32] - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended for better long-term investment outcomes [36] Group 5: Global Stock Market Valuation - The article includes a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation [37] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded but remains at a lower valuation [38] Group 6: Investment Products - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment strategy is offered through a diversified portfolio [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that includes various stock market index funds [41] Group 7: Book Release - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has gained significant popularity [46][48] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as the implications of these trends for investors. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with the global stock index rating remaining at 3.0 stars [10][11]. - European stock markets saw significant drops, particularly the French CAC40 index, which fell by 3.3% [13]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, markets such as India and Japan also faced declines, while Chinese assets continued to perform well, with the A-share index rising by 1.84% [15][16]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - Over the past year, the gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have significantly outpaced the global average, attributed to the low valuations seen last year [19][21]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were undervalued by approximately 50% compared to the global average at their lowest point [22]. - Currently, A-shares still hold a valuation advantage over global markets, but this advantage is narrowing, with estimates suggesting parity in valuations at around 3.0 stars [25][26]. Group 3: Earnings Reports - The earnings reports for A-shares for the second quarter have shown overall growth, indicating a positive trend [30][33]. - However, the growth rate in earnings has not significantly improved compared to the first quarter, suggesting a stable recovery [37][38]. - Different sectors are experiencing varying levels of profitability, with technology sectors showing notable improvements [40]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which are not yet accessible in mainland China [47]. - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across multiple stock markets, including U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [48]. - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for these investment products, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [49]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The article promotes the newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant popularity and is recognized as a classic in investment literature [52][54]. - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [55].