Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $56.5, or 0.44%, closing at $12,810.0 per ton on January 21, following a significant drop the previous day, driven by tight inventories outside the U.S. despite concerns over sustained demand [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $7.5, or 0.24%, to $3,115.0 per ton, while zinc increased by $2.5, or 0.08%, to $3,175.5 per ton [2] - The three-month tin price surged by $2,005.0, or 4.06%, to $51,417.0 per ton, marking the largest increase among LME metals [6] Group 2 - Structural tightness continues to support prices in the broader base metals market, although demand outlook remains uncertain [3] - The copper premium in the spot market rose above $100 per ton, indicating strong short-term demand, but shifted to a discount of $23.50 per ton the following day [3] - China's refined copper imports for December 2025 were reported at 298,027.32 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.19% and a year-on-year decline of 27.00% [3] Group 3 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market surplus of 94,000 tons in November 2025, up from a surplus of 48,000 tons in October [4] - For the period from January to November 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 206,000 tons, compared to a surplus of 105,000 tons in the same period the previous year [5] Group 4 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a zinc market shortage of 7,700 tons in November 2025, an increase from a shortage of 2,800 tons in October [8] - The global refined lead market surplus narrowed to 8,900 tons in November 2025, down from 29,200 tons in October [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the Trump administration's decision to postpone tariffs on critical minerals may lead to a cooling of speculative sentiment in the precious metals market, with a more stable upward movement expected for gold prices this year [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The prices of precious metals like silver and gold have shown strong performance since December, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and inventory tightness during delivery periods [1] - Silver inventory at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) increased to 27,800 tons by the end of last year, but actual inventory levels remain constrained due to simultaneous increases in U.S. and European silver ETFs [1][2] - The market anticipates the U.S. government's tariff policy on critical minerals to be finalized soon, with a significant increase in actual delivery demand for COMEX silver futures observed in early January [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Global macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks have led to a rise in safe-haven trading, supporting demand for precious metals [2] - The Trump administration's announcement on January 14 to delay tariff decisions may reduce short-term trade disruption risks, potentially cooling speculative sentiment in the silver market [3] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold and Silver - CICC believes that gold prices may experience a more stable upward trend compared to silver, with potential adjustments providing investment opportunities [4] - The market's cautious pricing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve suggests limited adjustment space for gold, while silver faces ongoing inventory concerns and tariff risks, indicating greater price volatility [4]

Group 1 - The current price increase of white metals (silver, platinum group metals) is primarily driven by ongoing supply tightness and reduced market liquidity during the year-end holiday season, with increased trading activity in China also playing a significant role [1][2] - There is a growing belief that silver and platinum group metals have room for price appreciation, especially after breaking key technical levels and reaching new highs, attracting more investor interest [1] - The sustainability of this upward momentum into next year is uncertain, as excessive price increases could lead to reduced industrial demand, potentially alleviating market tightness and decreasing investor appeal [1] Group 2 - China's historically low interest rates have led investors to seek profitable assets, increasing the popularity of precious metals, with silver demand expected to rise in the coming years [2] - The trading volume of silver futures has rebounded, and new futures and options for platinum and palladium have been introduced, enhancing investment channels for precious metals [2] - Silver inventory has been declining since 2020, and if industrial demand improves alongside high investment enthusiasm, companies may replenish their inventories, further driving price increases [2] Group 3 - In the silver market, bullish funds are significantly increasing their holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, which is driving prices higher, although high prices may suppress industrial demand [4] - The potential for a "non-rational" price increase may end as exchanges like CME adjust margin requirements, leading to a possible reduction in volatility [4] - In a high volatility environment, it is advised to maintain a light long position above $70 [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: With the rapid exit of pre - holiday funds, the gold market has adjusted. In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as US economic data's impact on Fed policy and South American geopolitical situations. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1] - Silver: Long - position funds have increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price up. Global inventory shortages may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the CME and other exchanges raise margins, the "irrational" upward trend driven by short - term funds is expected to end. In high - volatility markets, a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices relative to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue their upward trend in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, with reduced speculative sentiment and narrowing fluctuations, it is advisable to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the AU2602 gold contract closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day; the AG2604 silver contract closed at 19290 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83%; the PT2606 platinum contract closed at 598.50 yuan/gram, down 2.97%; the PD2606 palladium contract closed at 475.95 yuan/gram, up 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold main contract closed at $4467.10, down 0.86%; the COMEX silver main contract closed at $77.98, down 3.99%; the NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2290.40 per ounce, down 6.74%; the NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1817.00, down 3.96% [1] Spot Prices - On January 7, 2026, the London gold price was $4456.07, down 0.87%; the London silver price was $78.28, down 3.56%; the spot platinum price was $2297.55 per ounce, down 2.73%; the spot palladium price was $1755.73, down 0.97%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was 999.20 yuan/gram, down 0.27%; the silver T + D was 19365 yuan/kilogram, down 0.67%; the platinum 9995 was 606 yuan/gram, up 5.56% [1] Basis - As of January 7, 2026, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 0.30, up 3.36 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 95.10%; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 75, up 32, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 98.30%; the basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 11.03, down 0.47, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 68.60%; the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.30, up 0.35, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 91.50% [1] Price Ratios - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.29, up 3.26% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.78, up 0.23%. The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 2.89%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 3.79% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - On January 7, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.7% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged. The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88%, down 1.6%. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9935, up 0.18% [1] Inventory and Positions - As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, down 0.05%; the silver inventory was 553,429 kilograms, down 4.82%. The COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 36,403,452; the silver inventory was 445,737,395, down 0.77%. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,329,396; the silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,185,964, up 0.38%. The SPDR Gold ETF position remained at 1067; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,100, down 0.11% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Inventory shortages and potential squeeze risks supported a new high in silver, leading to a collective increase in the non - ferrous metals sector. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan or 1.05%. The top 20 positions increased both long and short positions, with net long positions increasing by 3,467 lots. [7] - As the price rose, downstream buyers showed fear of high prices, and market trading weakened. The premium in the Shanghai market for the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton for the 01 contract, with the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widening. [7] - There were limited changes in the industrial chain. The domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) remained flat this week, while the imported concentrate TC continued to decline. The shortage at the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end, and the refined zinc output in November was expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons month - on - month. The tightening supply strengthened the support for zinc prices. [7] - The export window was still open, and with downstream pick - ups, the domestic social inventory had been decreasing for three consecutive weeks. The expectation of an interest rate cut in December increased, and the bullish sentiment in precious metals remained. Shanghai zinc was boosted and showed a strong performance. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and open interest changes of different Shanghai zinc contracts (2512, 2601, 2602) are presented. For example, the 2601 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan or 1.05%, with an open interest of 105,756 lots and an increase of 4,214 lots. [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Price Ranges in Different Regions**: On December 1, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions were as follows: 22,600 - 22,750 yuan/ton in the general market, 22,600 - 22,720 yuan/ton in the Ningbo market, 22,420 - 22,610 yuan/ton in the Tianjin market, and 22,440 - 22,610 yuan/ton in the Guangdong market. Different brands also had corresponding price ranges and premium/discount situations. [8] 3.3 Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in ten thousand tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons). [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to concerns over weak demand, despite reaching a near one-month high in the previous trading session [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, LME three-month copper fell by $35.5, or 0.32%, closing at $10,939.5 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced price changes, with three-month aluminum down by $32.5 (1.14%), three-month zinc down by $41.5 (1.36%), while three-month lead and nickel saw slight increases [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December led to a peak copper price of $11,025 on November 26, the highest since October 30 [4] - Supply disruptions in mining contributed to a historical high of $11,200 for copper on October 29 [4] - The focus of the metal market shifted to weak demand from major consuming countries due to the U.S. market being closed for Thanksgiving [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Inventory - Technically, copper found support at the 21-day moving average cut-off of $10,813 [5] - Comex copper inventory reached 378,900 tons, continuing to rise from a historical high last week, while LME registered warehouse copper inventory reported at 157,175 tons, down 42% year-to-date [5] - Concerns about tight inventories outside the U.S. have intensified, with LME spot copper contracts showing a premium of $20 per ton at the end of Thursday [5]