Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The report indicates that interest rate bonds have risen across the board, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The 30-year government bond is expected to stabilize after hitting a new low this year, with a forecasted decline towards the low point from September 30, 2024, in the long term [17][19][8] - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with a trading volume of 1.95 trillion, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment. The report suggests that sectors representing "old" forces, such as coal and banking, will regain market attention in the upcoming quarter [19][9][10] - The report maintains that despite short-term adjustments in the stock market, the long-term upward momentum for A-shares remains intact, indicating a strong preference for stocks over bonds in the broader market trend [17][19][8] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a broad decline, with over 4,500 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that the strong performance of "old" sectors like coal and banking is likely to continue, while technology stocks are underperforming due to high absorption rates and volatility [19][9][10] - The report highlights that the absorption rate for technology stocks remains above 30%, indicating limited room for recovery from high levels, which has historically taken about one quarter [19][10][9] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.63%, and Nasdaq down 0.47%. The report notes that comments from Powell opened the door for a potential rate cut in October, but investors may be underestimating risks related to U.S.-China trade negotiations [24][10][9] - The report suggests that the high valuation of U.S. stocks may lead to wide fluctuations until clarity on trade negotiations is achieved, with a strategy to buy the dip being effective when the VIX index exceeds 30 [24][10][9] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1262, showing a slight increase. The report anticipates that the USD will continue to perform strongly, while the Euro is expected to decline against the USD [30][11][10] - The report highlights that the Eurozone's weak performance and the historical high of the Euro's effective exchange rate are contributing factors to the anticipated decline of the Euro against the USD [30][11][10] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.49%, with coal and polysilicon sectors showing strength. The report indicates that coal is entering a demand season, and favorable supply-side policies for polysilicon are expected [33][12][10] - The report advises caution in short-selling commodities, as the overall commodity market appears weak, with specific strong products being the exception [33][12][10]

策 略 研 究 太 平 洋 证 2025 年 10 月 14 日 投资策略 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 <<策略日报（2025.10.13）:TACO 再 证券分析师：张冬冬 利率债全线走强，贸易战的担忧增加了避险情绪，各期限国债在我 们此前预期的年内低点附近获得支撑。我们维持此前对债市的判断：三 十年期国债在创下今年新低后将企稳回升（时间预计 1 个季度左右）， 但在更长的时间维度上，三十年期国债在目前位置震荡整理后将继续下 跌，目标位在去年 9 月份政策转向的低点（2024 年 9 月 30 日）附近。股 市仍未见明显的走弱迹象，考虑到当前量能的稳定以及超十年压力位的突 破，即使股市在未来 1 个季度表现不佳，也仅是短期支撑债市的表现，股 强债弱的大方向没有改变。后续展望：股市大盘突破，商品蓄势待发，债 市预计短期在年线附近震荡整理 1 个季度左右后将继续下跌。 究 报 告 股票市场：A 股：以煤炭、银行代表的"旧"势力向科技代表的"新" 势力发起反击，正如我们此前持续强调的，科技过高的吸筹率和波动率将 使得追高极难获得超额收益，昨日我们推荐的煤炭、银行、光伏、养殖、 核电在今日的下跌行情中都 ...