Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of tin is tight and the demand is resilient, so the tin price is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [1] - The domestic methanol market has a high operating rate, and the demand has a phased recovery. The methanol price is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [2] - The national pig price is mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and the inventory is expected to decline significantly. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term [4] - The short - term soybean meal price is expected to oscillate weakly [5] - The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the game between mine - end support and macro disturbances [5] - Short - term cautious operation for crude oil, and the medium - term trend depends on the war situation [6] - Short - term trading is recommended for polyester staple fiber [7] - Short - term cautious operation for synthetic rubber, and the medium - term trend depends on the war situation [8] - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Do not be overly bullish on the 30 - year treasury bond [9] - The polypropylene price is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - The float glass price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] - Platinum and palladium passively follow the silver's fluctuation with limited amplitude in the short term [12] - Gold has short - term support for rebound and is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern in the medium term [12] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Tin - On March 31, the average price of Mysteel 1 tin ingots was 371,000 yuan/ton, up 9,500 yuan/ton from March 30. The processing fees of tin concentrates were flat. The global tin mine supply lacks elasticity, and the AI - driven semiconductor industry boosts the demand for solder. Supply - demand factors lead to the expected short - term price trend [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest increased by 0.03 million tons to 4.83 million tons. The price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The port inventory decreased by 5.11 million tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 10.39% week - on - week. The domestic methanol operating rate is high, downstream demand recovers, and the inventory continues to decline [2] Pig - On March 31, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 15.31 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day. The national pig price is mainly stable, with support from second - fattening and early - month volume reduction, but the demand increase is limited [4] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from March 1 - 31, 2026, were 1,607,065 tons, up 56.72% from the previous month. The exports are strong, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly due to import profit inversion [4] Soybean Meal - On March 31, the domestic soybean meal spot prices in some regions decreased. Some oil - mill inventories are decreasing, and downstream procurement is cautious. The expected relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process suppresses the bullish sentiment [5] Copper - CSPT did not set a reference price for the second - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee in 2026. The copper concentrate supply is tight, and the demand side shows inventory reduction and increased restocking willingness. The copper price is affected by mine - end support and macro disturbances [5] Crude Oil - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels. The market's hope for the end of the Middle - East war has risen, causing the overnight oil price to drop significantly. Short - term cautious operation and medium - term focus on the war situation [6] Polyester Staple Fiber - In February 2026, China's export of uncombed polyester staple fiber decreased by 18.08% month - on - month. The export volume is expected to decline in March - April. The weak demand is the core contradiction in the pure - polyester yarn market [7] Synthetic Rubber - In March 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 9.68% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate decreased, and the production profit dropped significantly. The supply is tightening due to raw material shortages [8] Lead - From January - February 2026, China's refined lead imports increased by 732.08% year - on - year. The supply is supplemented by imports, and the cost support exists. The demand from downstream battery enterprises is stable [9] 30 - Year Treasury Bond - In March 2026, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range. The economic data recovery is negative for the bond market, and the rebound of the 30 - year treasury bond is limited [9] Polypropylene - The East - China polypropylene spot price decreased by 159 yuan/ton. The weekly output decreased, the commercial inventory decreased, and the downstream average operating rate increased. The supply is expected to tighten further [10] Float Glass - The national float glass average price was flat. The industry average operating rate decreased slightly, the profit improved slightly, and the inventory decreased by 1.09% week - on - week. The terminal real - estate demand is still declining [11] Platinum and Palladium - Fed officials are worried about inflation and economic downward pressure. Platinum and palladium may stop falling and stabilize, but the industrial attribute limits the rebound due to economic concerns [12] Gold - Market expectations for the end of the war have risen, risk preference has increased, and the interest - rate cut expectation has slightly returned. Gold has short - term support for rebound and is expected to oscillate widely in the medium term [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends in the short term, including continued weakening, high - level fluctuations, and short - term shocks, which are mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and macro - policies [1][3][5] Summary by Commodity Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume is stable, but low demand slows inventory digestion. With the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed, there are concerns about inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] - **Pig**: National pig prices are oscillating downward, with slow slaughter progress on the breeding side and weak terminal demand. The short - term supply surplus is difficult to improve, and prices will be adjusted weakly [3] - **Egg**: The price of eggs decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous day [3] - **Palm Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fading, and the futures price center is moving down. The domestic spot market is stable in basis, but the transaction is light. Malaysia's exports are strong but stagnant during holidays, and the short - term price is expected to be high and fluctuate weakly [3] Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overall supply is still loose, but the shipping and arrival rhythm is affected, and the liquidity of some spot varieties is limited. There is room for iron water recovery on the demand side. The total inventory is difficult to significantly decrease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The hot - rolled coil inventory continues to decline, but the year - on - year high inventory situation is still significant, especially in social inventory. The inventory contradiction of plates is not resolved, and the price may fall from a high level if the sentiment cools [4] - **Silicon Iron**: The problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production, and the supply - demand relationship will gradually become loose. There is a risk of price correction in the medium and long term [4] - **Copper**: The long - term supply is expected to increase, but the short - term impact on the market is limited. The current price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. There is a game between macro - suppression and fundamental support, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8] - **Alumina**: Some aluminum plants in the Middle East face a risk of alumina shortage but are seeking alternative channels. There is a game between cost support and supply pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9] - **Tin**: Tin ore supply is improving, and the supply expectation is loosening. The downstream consumption is waiting for the release of peak - season demand, and social inventory is starting to decrease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - **Gold**: As the war may enter the negotiation stage, the expectation of stagflation is rising. Gold may trade the stagflation logic after trading inflation, and it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the medium term [10] - **Platinum**: The Federal Reserve has not reached a clear decision on short - term interest - rate cuts, and platinum passively fluctuates with silver and gold [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories have increased. The U.S. government's "15 - item conditions" for Iran's cease - fire are far from Iran's demands. The short - term operation should be cautious, and the longer the war lasts, the stronger the upward driving force for crude oil prices in the medium term [5] Chemicals - **PX**: Affected by high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales are poor. There is an expected inventory accumulation of PTA in March. PX has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price is affected by geopolitics. Short - term moderate waiting is recommended [6] Others - **Natural Rubber**: Overseas production is low, and domestic production is gradually starting. Tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate remains stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [7] - **Thirty - Year Treasury Bond**: The central bank's MLF operation has a net investment, and the capital is loose. The bond market logic is not clear, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, gold and silver are expected to remain in high - level oscillations. Gold is affected by rising inflation expectations and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations due to the deepening Middle - East conflict [1][7]. - Methanol is expected to be in a short - term oscillation with a slightly upward trend, as domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, and inventories are decreasing [2]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short - term and show a weakening trend in the medium - term due to supply and geopolitical disturbances and high inventory pressure [4]. - For coking coal, if the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [4]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may face pressure after a rebound, as geopolitical conflicts and trade investigations bring uncertainties to steel exports, and the inventory is relatively high [5]. - Thirty - year treasury bonds are in a triangular oscillating convergence, and short - term bond prices are under pressure due to the economic recovery and the potential rebound of the stock market [6]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak, but the downward space for long - term futures prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of breeding sows [9]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [10]. - For soybean meal, the short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [11]. - The short - term volatility of aluminum may increase, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow the change of aluminum prices, as geopolitical conflicts and high energy prices affect the supply and demand [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to the expected supply increase and high inventory [13]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term, with strong cost support and cautious demand - side procurement [14]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short - term, as the supply is high, the demand is average, and the inventory is at a high level [15]. - Crude oil is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy in the medium - term before the significant resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - Polyester bottle chips are recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy, as the supply increases, the cost support exists, and the downstream enters the consumption peak season [17]. - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate, with a strong supply - side raw material price, a seasonal inventory increase, and a good export market in the tire industry [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Gold - Middle - East energy facilities are attacked, the war deepens, inflation expectations rise, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and precious metals. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2925 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. Port and inland inventories are decreasing, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term [2]. Iron Ore - From March 9th to 15th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 380.5 tons week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and weaken in the medium - term [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.39%, up 0.1%. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on coking coal prices is significant [4]. Hot - Rolled Coils - As of the week of March 18th, the output increased by 3.84 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 1.56 tons. The price may face pressure after a rebound [5]. Thirty - Year Treasury Bonds - Fixed - asset investment has changed from a decline to an increase. The bond market is under pressure in the short - term but is unlikely to break through the key support level [6]. Silver - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate unchanged, raises inflation and economic growth expectations. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [7]. Live Pigs - The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous day. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term downward space is limited [9]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 25.23% in December. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with strong support at the bottom [10]. Soybean Meal - The spot market price is stable with a slight decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on dips [11]. Aluminum - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects the aluminum supply chain. The short - term volatility may increase [12]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price is partially up 100 yuan/ton. It is in a situation of cost support and weak demand, and is expected to follow the change of aluminum prices [12]. Tin - Samsung's strike threat adds uncertainty to the semiconductor supply chain. Tin prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term [13]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 8424 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1253 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short - term [15]. Crude Oil - U.S. crude oil inventory increased, and the Middle - East conflict deepens. It is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy in the medium - term [16]. Polyester Bottle Chips - The capacity utilization rate is 72.50%, and the profit is 842.38 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading strategy [17]. Natural Rubber - The raw material price in Thailand is firm, the inventory in China is seasonally increasing, and the tire export market is good. It is expected to oscillate [18].

Group 1: Iron Ore - Latest overseas shipments are gradually recovering, while domestic arrivals have slightly decreased. Steel mill demand is average, and port inventories are rising. The market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment, and the disk is expected to continue a strong - side oscillation [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is slowly rising. Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The float glass market has stable operation, but downstream demand is tepid. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Coking Coal - Coal mine复产 is restricted, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is still pressure on the coking coal fundamentals. The disk price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] Group 4: Rebar - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production is slow, and steel demand recovers moderately. Inventory is expected to increase this week, and steel prices face upward pressure. Cost provides some support, and steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] Group 5: Live Pigs - Pig prices are stable and weak. There is still pressure on the supply side, and demand is poor. Although there is more inquiry for second - fattening, actual entry is limited. In the short term, prices will continue to adjust weakly. Feed cost supports prices, and in the medium - long term, futures prices have limited downward space [5] Group 6: Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in early March. Crude oil price increases provide cost support. However, domestic inventory pressure is high, and sales are poor. Palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5] Group 7: Soybean Meal - The price of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The lower limit of the futures contract is strongly supported by high - priced US soybeans and rising shipping costs. Although the oil mill inventory has recovered, downstream inventory is sufficient, suppressing the upward space. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6] Group 8: Copper - The threat of a strike at Glencore's Australian copper refinery may affect short - term copper supply. Rising oil prices and a strong US dollar put pressure on copper prices. High inventory suppresses prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate before the inventory inflection point [7] Group 9: Cast Aluminum Alloy - In February, automobile production and sales decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and shows strong performance, but volatility should be watched [7] Group 10: Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level. Port inventory has decreased significantly, and downstream demand has gradually recovered. The spot market is average, and methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 11: PVC - PVC supply is abundant, and downstream demand is improving. Inventory may decrease. Rising crude oil prices increase the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The market is expected to oscillate after price increases [9] Group 12: Lead - A lead - acid battery company is building a sodium - ion battery project, which poses a long - term threat to lead demand. However, it has no short - term impact. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [10][11] Group 13: Crude Oil - OPEC's oil production increased in February. Global oil demand is expected to grow in 2026 and 2027. US crude oil inventory increased, and production decreased slightly. Tensions in the Middle East increase supply concerns. The release of strategic reserves can only ease price increases, and oil prices still have support [12] Group 14: Short - Fiber - Short - fiber processing fees are low, providing support for prices. However, rising raw material costs and risk - aversion sentiment slow down the resumption of work. The supply - demand driving force is average, and prices are expected to be strong due to PX and crude oil [13] Group 15: Natural Rubber - Overseas rubber production areas are in the off - season. Chinese rubber inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand shows different performances in full - steel and semi - steel tires. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [14] Group 16: Thirty - Year Treasury Bonds - After the government work meetings, incremental policies may be in the works. The bond market is expected to oscillate bearishly, and the key support level needs guidance from the Politburo meeting in April [15] Group 17: Gold - The war situation is still stalemate, and there is a risk of new tariffs. Inflation data is weak, and the prospect of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Gold has limited downward space in the short term and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [15] Group 18: Palladium - US inflation data is in line with expectations, but the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices is not reflected. The Fed's interest - rate cut decision needs more data. Palladium is expected to follow the fluctuation rhythm of silver in the medium term [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market supply of various commodities is in a state of change, with some increasing and some decreasing, and the demand side also shows different trends. The prices of commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation, showing different trends such as shock, rise, and fall [1][3][5] Summary by Commodity Short - fiber - This cycle, China's polyester staple fiber production was 158,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons and a month - on - month increase of 8.81%. The average comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.05%, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. After the festival, some enterprises restarted, the market supply gradually increased, but the improvement of terminal foreign and domestic trade was limited, resulting in more cautious market buying, and the finished product inventory accumulated. The cost continued to rise, and the cost side recently promoted the price to be stronger [1] Gold - As of Wednesday, traders expected the probability that the Fed would keep the current interest rate range unchanged by December to be 25%, higher than 17% last Friday. Due to the continuous war in the Middle East, the market's expectation of continuous inflation increase strengthened, and the attitude towards interest rate cuts was relatively pessimistic. Gold had increased short - term downward pressure and was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [1] Iron Ore - From February 23rd to March 1st, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.23 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.1469 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0328 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons. Recently, the iron ore supply - demand structure weakened month - on - month, and the price showed a shock pattern after rising and then falling [3] Coking Coal - The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 82.3%, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. The supply side was marginally loose, and the imported Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The demand side had support for the rigid demand of furnace materials, but the fundamental support was limited, and the disk was sorted out at a low level [4] Rebar - As of the week of March 5th, rebar production was 173,310 tons, an increase of 8,210 tons from last week, an increase of 4.97%. The supply - demand data was neutral. The terminal demand gradually recovered, but was still at a low level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East disturbed the market, and the cost of black commodities was boosted. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were still weak, and the disk was expected to be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term [5] Live Pigs - On March 5th, the national pig price was stable with a weak adjustment. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The downward space of live pig futures prices in the medium term was limited, the near - month contracts fluctuated at the bottom, and the far - month contracts fluctuated strongly, waiting for the cycle to reverse [6] Palm Oil - As of March 5th, the spot price of domestic palm oil had different changes. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased significantly in February, and Indonesia was expected to have a longer and more severe drought after April, threatening palm production. The short - term fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil strengthened, and the price was easy to rise but difficult to fall [6][7] Soybean Meal - As of March 5th, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices rose and fell. The lower support of the soybean meal 05 contract was strong, but the downstream feed enterprise inventory was sufficient, suppressing the short - term rise space. It was expected to fluctuate in a range with the price center of gravity moving up [7] Crude Oil - The oil market entered a stage of observing the substantial changes in the supply and demand of the crude oil market. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz on Chinese commodities was weakening. High - position long orders should be moderately reduced, and light - position long orders should be continued to hold [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side of overseas production areas was gradually entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream demand was not as expected. Technically, the recent capital reduced positions and the price fell. It was treated with a short - term bearish and medium - term shock mentality [9] Copper - The brass rod market showed a situation of "stagnation before the festival and slow recovery after the festival". The supply of refined copper in China remained high, and the spot circulation was abundant. After the Lantern Festival, the copper processing rate was expected to recover, but the terminal demand had not substantially recovered. The copper price was expected to maintain a shock [10][11] Cast Aluminum Alloy - On March 5th, the prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy in major regions generally rose. The supply of scrap aluminum was in short supply, and the cost support was strong. The demand side was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the overall transaction did not increase significantly. It followed the change of aluminum price [11] Nickel - Indonesia's RKAB quota target in 2026 was about 260 - 270 million tons, aiming to reduce the global nickel market surplus. The pricing reform was expected to raise the cost center of nickel ore. The supply was expected to tighten, but the demand was weak. The nickel price was expected to maintain a range - shock pattern [12] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang rose. The port inventory was basically stable, and some downstream enterprises resumed work after the festival. The safety risk in Iran led to an increase in device shutdowns. The port inventory was high and stable, and the demand recovered. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in China was stable. The production decreased month - on - month, and the inventory increased. The float glass inventory increased, and the downstream processing plant resumed work slowly. The domestic soda ash market was stable, and the supply was loose. It was expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [14] PVC - The price of PVC in East China rose. The upstream supply was abundant, and some downstream enterprises resumed work and purchased at low prices. The industry inventory might continue to accumulate, and the market price was expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [16] Thirty - year Treasury Bonds - During the Two Sessions, there might be fewer incremental policies, and the bond market would mainly fluctuate. It was expected to show a triangular shock convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [16] Silver - US economic data showed certain resilience, but the increase in inflation expectations suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the war suppressed risk appetite, which was bearish for silver. The downward momentum of silver increased, and it fluctuated passively following gold, and was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has escalated, which is expected to drive up the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, and gold. However, the increase in OPEC+ production will put pressure on the oil price [2][5][14]. - The fundamentals of various commodities show different trends. Some commodities like silicon iron and asphalt have limited upward drivers, while others such as palm oil and methanol are expected to have a short - term upward trend [1][4][6][7][10]. - The supply - demand relationship of different commodities varies. For example, the supply of coking coal is affected by policies, and the supply of fuel oil is affected by refinery maintenance and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 7 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply is restricted by policies. The downstream is mainly digesting inventory. The spot is expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. Fuel Oil - In February 2026, the domestic refinery fuel oil commodity volume was 51.34 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.59 million tons, a decline of 24.42%. After offsetting the increase and decrease in supply, the fuel oil commodity volume shows a downward trend, which is beneficial for price increase. Considering the geopolitical conflict, it is advisable to operate with a bullish mindset [2]. Silicon Iron - The national inventory of silicon iron is 70,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The supply - demand of the silicon iron market is weak, and it is difficult for the futures price to maintain a high level [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points. After the festival, the rebar production is expected to recover, but the short - term inventory pressure is high, and the fundamental support is limited [4]. Crude Oil - The geopolitical conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has escalated, which is expected to drive up the oil price. OPEC+ announced an increase in production, which will put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to hold long positions [5]. Asphalt - In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production was 1.023 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The refinery production reduction eases the supply pressure. The demand is affected by the off - season, and the cost may drive the price to be stronger [6]. Pig - The national pig price is still falling. The supply exceeds the demand, but the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts [6][7]. Palm Oil - Indonesia raised the export tax in March. Geopolitical factors are beneficial for the price increase of palm oil, and the price center is expected to move up [7]. Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal is weakly stable with a slight decline. The market trading sentiment has improved slightly, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [7]. Copper - Chile's copper production decreased in January. The supply is constrained, and the demand is gradually recovering. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Alumina - Ghana's policy may affect the long - term bauxite trade pattern. The current supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [8]. Tin - The conflict in Myanmar affects the supply expectation. The high inventory and weak demand suppress the price, and the short - term price fluctuation may intensify [9][10]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up rate is at a high level, and the port inventory is high. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the inventory is expected to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is stable. The supply is at a high level, the demand is average, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. Plastic - The supply of LLDPE is sufficient, the production enterprise inventory is rising, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond - Global risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The stock - bond seesaw effect is beneficial for the thirty - year treasury bond, and it is recommended to maintain a volatile mindset in the short term [12]. Silver - Silver follows the passive fluctuation of gold. It is expected to fluctuate more in the short term and remain at a high - level fluctuation in the medium term [14]. Gold - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment of gold has increased. The short - term interest rate cut by the Fed is unlikely, which will drag down the gold price. Gold is expected to fluctuate more in the short term [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current RMB exchange - rate appreciation is more likely the third scenario where domestic entities' risk preference changes, so it does not benefit Hong Kong stocks, and the sustainability of the RMB's strength is questionable. It is hoped that future RMB appreciation will be the first scenario, corresponding to the burst of the US tech bubble [17]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the bias of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the value style has a higher probability of relative dominance [9][58]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6% (previous value 8.7%), expected to decline to around 8.3% in December. The money market continued to loosen marginally last week. The central bank's stance indicates that the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, waiting for the quantitative fiscal target from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase in government bonds was 1707 billion yuan (higher than the planned 1148 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 174 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December from 13.1% in November [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. The one - year Treasury yield dropped to 1.29% at the weekend. The market may have over - anticipated a 2026 interest - rate cut. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries widened to 55 basis points. The money - market loosening may be approaching its limit [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: In November, physical quantity data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level. The full - year nominal economic growth target for 2025 is 4.9%, and it is necessary to confirm whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. The Chinese government put forward three policy goals in 2016. Currently, the convergence on the liability side is not over but has limited space. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China [6][20]. - **Last Week's Market Performance**: The money market continued to loosen, risk preference rose, and the growth style dominated. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 1.84%, the one - year yield dropped 7 basis points to 1.29%, and the 30 - year yield remained stable at 2.22%. The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 by - 0.32 pct last week and - 5.41 pct since July 2024 [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Bonds at the long end are considered to have investment value. For equities, a neutral stance is taken, with a focus on style. Before seeing the government's bond - issuance plan, the value style is expected to dominate. This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (60% position), the CSI 1000 Index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][22]. 3. Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares rose with increased trading volume. Among Shenwan primary industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, and building materials had the largest increases, while beauty care, social services, banks, coal, and food and beverage had the largest declines [28]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals. The trading volume of the whole A - share market rebounded. Transportation, non - ferrous metals, and other industries had the highest trading - volume growth rates, while banks, coal, and other industries had the largest declines [31][32]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE(TTM) of non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and other industries increased the most, while that of social services, beauty care, and other industries decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, and others [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in November, and export growth rates of some countries changed. Domestically, the second - hand housing price dropped, and quantity indicators fluctuated. The highway truck traffic volume declined, and the industrial capacity utilization rate showed a fluctuating trend [41]. - **Public - Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of December, most active public - fund equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 26, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds slightly increased compared to Q4 2024 [55]. - **Industry Recommendations**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banks, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [9][58].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates a long-term downtrend in the bond market, with a target for the 30-year government bond near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][17][10] - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, with the index approaching a support level of 3850 points, suggesting a potential for significant market movement [5][21][10] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards domestic consumption, driven by recent central economic work meetings, which may influence sector performance [5][21] Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The insurance and beverage manufacturing sectors are showing strength, while the semiconductor sector is underperforming [21] - The report notes that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a style shift, with technology stocks facing downward pressure due to concerns over AI bubbles and rising bond yields [25][27] - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile, with the renewable energy sector leading gains, while agricultural products are lagging [32][10] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - In November, China's retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while industrial output grew by 4.8% [36][40] - The report mentions a price surge in lithium iron phosphate, with leading companies raising prices by 2000 to 3000 yuan per ton due to increased demand and rising raw material costs [36][38] - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, indicating strong market expectations for RMB stability [30][31]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a bullish stance with a focus on support levels in various markets, suggesting that investors should look for buying opportunities as long as key support levels hold [5][9][19]. - In the A-share market, the report identifies the ChiNext index as leading the gains, with support levels at 3070 points for ChiNext and 3920 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5][19]. - The report anticipates a continued downtrend in the bond market, particularly for 30-year government bonds, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The report notes improved market sentiment, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, batteries, and chemicals leading the gains, while technology stocks are expected to show divergence based on earnings support [5][19]. - The report highlights that the technology sector's absorption rate has fallen below 25%, indicating a release of crowded positions, but suggests that time is still insufficient for a full recovery [19][23]. - The energy metals and battery sectors are noted as strong performers, while banks and oil & gas development sectors are lagging [19]. Group 3: U.S. Market Insights - The report indicates that the end of the U.S. government shutdown has positively impacted U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 index showing support at approximately 6630 points [6][25]. - The potential implementation of a $2000 subsidy for low-income individuals by the Trump administration is highlighted as a factor that could significantly stimulate the U.S. economy, although its feasibility remains uncertain [6][25]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Markets - The report states that the onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0964, reflecting a decline of 156 basis points, with expectations of a weaker dollar index in the short term [26]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.34%, with most sectors rising, except for a significant drop in the oil sector, suggesting a cautious approach to commodity investments [32].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a strategy of "accumulating grain," suggesting that investors should not take heavy positions and should wait for better buying opportunities after a full adjustment in the technology sector [4][19][26] - The A-share market shows resilience in the dividend index, with sectors like photovoltaic and chemicals leading the market, while the "old" forces are expected to continue outperforming through the fourth quarter [4][19] - The report indicates that the technology sector's performance will be differentiated, with stocks lacking earnings support likely to see significant corrections, while those with earnings support, such as storage, will maintain upward momentum [4][19] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the bond market, there is short-term upward momentum, but the long-term trend is expected to be downward, targeting the low point from September 30, 2024 [16][19] - The U.S. stock market has seen a temporary relief from downward risks due to bipartisan agreements, but caution is advised as the VIX index remains low and layoffs are at a recent high [5][26] - The foreign exchange market indicates a strong performance of the U.S. dollar, with expectations of continued strength against the yuan, while the yuan is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations [5][29] Group 3: Sector Performance - The report highlights that the photovoltaic equipment and non-metallic materials sectors are leading the market, while components, software development, and insurance sectors are lagging [20][19] - The commodity market is currently in a state of observation, with the Wenhua Commodity Index down by 0.1%, indicating that while some commodities are rising, a bullish trend has not yet been established [33][34] - The report notes that the technology sector's chip congestion has been released, but the time for recovery remains insufficient, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in this area [24][19]