策 略 研 究 太 平 2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.12.15）：分水岭 相关研究报告 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 剑>>--2025-12-12 压力>>--2025-12-11 <<策略日报（2025.12.10）：探底回 升>>--2025-12-10 强>>--2025-12-09 高>>--2025-12-08 来！>>--2025-12-05 <<策略日报（2025.12.04）：波动率 重回低位>>--2025-12-04 来>>--2025-12-03 发>>--2025-12-02 势异也>>--2025-12-01 电话： E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 电话： E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.12.12 ） ： 亮 <<策略日报（2025.12.11）：支撑与 债市：利率债反弹至我们很久之前所画的压力后便重回下跌趋势。 长端利率债今日破位后加速下行，符 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a bullish stance with a focus on support levels in various markets, suggesting that investors should look for buying opportunities as long as key support levels hold [5][9][19]. - In the A-share market, the report identifies the ChiNext index as leading the gains, with support levels at 3070 points for ChiNext and 3920 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5][19]. - The report anticipates a continued downtrend in the bond market, particularly for 30-year government bonds, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The report notes improved market sentiment, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, batteries, and chemicals leading the gains, while technology stocks are expected to show divergence based on earnings support [5][19]. - The report highlights that the technology sector's absorption rate has fallen below 25%, indicating a release of crowded positions, but suggests that time is still insufficient for a full recovery [19][23]. - The energy metals and battery sectors are noted as strong performers, while banks and oil & gas development sectors are lagging [19]. Group 3: U.S. Market Insights - The report indicates that the end of the U.S. government shutdown has positively impacted U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 index showing support at approximately 6630 points [6][25]. - The potential implementation of a $2000 subsidy for low-income individuals by the Trump administration is highlighted as a factor that could significantly stimulate the U.S. economy, although its feasibility remains uncertain [6][25]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Markets - The report states that the onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0964, reflecting a decline of 156 basis points, with expectations of a weaker dollar index in the short term [26]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.34%, with most sectors rising, except for a significant drop in the oil sector, suggesting a cautious approach to commodity investments [32].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a strategy of "accumulating grain," suggesting that investors should not take heavy positions and should wait for better buying opportunities after a full adjustment in the technology sector [4][19][26] - The A-share market shows resilience in the dividend index, with sectors like photovoltaic and chemicals leading the market, while the "old" forces are expected to continue outperforming through the fourth quarter [4][19] - The report indicates that the technology sector's performance will be differentiated, with stocks lacking earnings support likely to see significant corrections, while those with earnings support, such as storage, will maintain upward momentum [4][19] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the bond market, there is short-term upward momentum, but the long-term trend is expected to be downward, targeting the low point from September 30, 2024 [16][19] - The U.S. stock market has seen a temporary relief from downward risks due to bipartisan agreements, but caution is advised as the VIX index remains low and layoffs are at a recent high [5][26] - The foreign exchange market indicates a strong performance of the U.S. dollar, with expectations of continued strength against the yuan, while the yuan is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations [5][29] Group 3: Sector Performance - The report highlights that the photovoltaic equipment and non-metallic materials sectors are leading the market, while components, software development, and insurance sectors are lagging [20][19] - The commodity market is currently in a state of observation, with the Wenhua Commodity Index down by 0.1%, indicating that while some commodities are rising, a bullish trend has not yet been established [33][34] - The report notes that the technology sector's chip congestion has been released, but the time for recovery remains insufficient, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in this area [24][19]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the upcoming quarter will see renewed market interest in traditional sectors such as coal, banking, and aquaculture, as indicated by the strong performance of the dividend index [5][18] - The Fourth Plenary Session has established AI as a core focus for the technology sector, alongside military-related themes, which are expected to dominate the market for the next five years [5][10] - The report suggests that the technology sector's high absorption rate and volatility will make it difficult to achieve excess returns, while sectors like coal, banking, and nuclear power are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [5][18] Group 2 - The report predicts that the bond market will stabilize in the short term but will continue to decline in the long term, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15] - The A-share market is expected to focus on traditional sectors in the upcoming quarter, while the technology sector will be monitored for a potential decrease in absorption rates [10][18] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to perform strongly due to anticipated favorable earnings reports, although it may experience low volatility leading up to key meetings [6][23] Group 3 - The report indicates that the onshore RMB has shown strength against the USD, with the central bank guiding the midpoint lower, while the dollar is expected to maintain a strong performance [7][27] - The euro is projected to continue its decline against the dollar, influenced by factors such as Germany's fiscal restructuring narrative and the euro's overvaluation impacting export competitiveness [8][27] - The commodity market is experiencing a positive trend, particularly in oil and new energy sectors, with several domestic commodities showing signs of recovery [8][32]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The report indicates that interest rate bonds have risen across the board, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The 30-year government bond is expected to stabilize after hitting a new low this year, with a forecasted decline towards the low point from September 30, 2024, in the long term [17][19][8] - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with a trading volume of 1.95 trillion, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment. The report suggests that sectors representing "old" forces, such as coal and banking, will regain market attention in the upcoming quarter [19][9][10] - The report maintains that despite short-term adjustments in the stock market, the long-term upward momentum for A-shares remains intact, indicating a strong preference for stocks over bonds in the broader market trend [17][19][8] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a broad decline, with over 4,500 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that the strong performance of "old" sectors like coal and banking is likely to continue, while technology stocks are underperforming due to high absorption rates and volatility [19][9][10] - The report highlights that the absorption rate for technology stocks remains above 30%, indicating limited room for recovery from high levels, which has historically taken about one quarter [19][10][9] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.63%, and Nasdaq down 0.47%. The report notes that comments from Powell opened the door for a potential rate cut in October, but investors may be underestimating risks related to U.S.-China trade negotiations [24][10][9] - The report suggests that the high valuation of U.S. stocks may lead to wide fluctuations until clarity on trade negotiations is achieved, with a strategy to buy the dip being effective when the VIX index exceeds 30 [24][10][9] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1262, showing a slight increase. The report anticipates that the USD will continue to perform strongly, while the Euro is expected to decline against the USD [30][11][10] - The report highlights that the Eurozone's weak performance and the historical high of the Euro's effective exchange rate are contributing factors to the anticipated decline of the Euro against the USD [30][11][10] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.49%, with coal and polysilicon sectors showing strength. The report indicates that coal is entering a demand season, and favorable supply-side policies for polysilicon are expected [33][12][10] - The report advises caution in short-selling commodities, as the overall commodity market appears weak, with specific strong products being the exception [33][12][10]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market is expected to stabilize in the short term but will continue to decline in the long term, with a target near the low point of September 30, 2024 [3][13][9] - The stock market shows no significant signs of weakness, and the current stable volume and breakthrough of long-term resistance suggest that even if the market performs poorly in the next quarter, it will only provide short-term support for the bond market [3][13] - The outlook for the stock market indicates a breakthrough in the index, with commodities poised for a rebound, while the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations around the annual line for about one quarter before continuing to decline [3][13] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The "old" forces represented by coal and banks are pushing back against the "new" forces represented by technology, with high absorption rates and volatility in technology making it difficult to achieve excess returns [4][15] - The absorption rate for technology remains high, currently above 30%, indicating insufficient time and space for a decline from high levels, with expectations that the "old" forces will regain market attention in the coming quarter [4][15] - Key sectors such as banks, coal, and insurance are leading the market, while the TMT sector has seen significant adjustments [4][15] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The overall risk appetite in the market is declining, which may impact the U.S. stock market; however, the healthy fundamentals of the U.S. economy and ample monetary policy space suggest that the U.S. market will maintain relative strength compared to other markets [5][20] - The VIX index is a critical indicator, and a strategy of "buy the dip" remains effective when the VIX exceeds 30 [5][21] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1403, showing an increase of 83 basis points, with expectations for the USD to continue its strong performance in the near term [6][26] - The euro is expected to decline against the USD, while the RMB is anticipated to maintain wide fluctuations [6][26] - The recent rise in the USD index has surpassed the previously indicated strong point of 99, with expectations that the upward movement will exceed market expectations [6][26][27] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index has decreased by 0.62%, with all sectors except precious metals showing poor performance; copper and crude oil have significantly declined [7][30] - Investors are advised to set stop-loss levels and approach short positions cautiously due to the weak trends in copper and crude oil [7][30]