Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Positive Factors**: Macro interest rate cut expectations have a positive supporting effect on market sentiment, and there are signs of marginal improvement in demand on the demand side, such as the demand for sulfate [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Refined nickel inventories continue to increase, resulting in significant supply pressure, and the inventories in the stainless steel industry chain are rising while terminal demand is relatively sluggish [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The market as a whole tends to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3]. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 670 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.56%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,335 dollars/ton, with a change of 228 dollars and a rate of - 0.16% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 93,921 lots, with a weekly increase of 25,077 lots and a weekly increase rate of 36.43%. The open interest is 127,005 lots, with a weekly increase of 68,347 lots and a weekly increase rate of 116.5% [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 26,881 tons, with a weekly decrease of 161 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.60% [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - **Prices**: The latest value of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,765 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 170 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 151,385 lots, with a weekly increase of 26,605 lots and a weekly increase rate of 21.32%. The open interest is 166,411 lots, with a weekly decrease of 31,783 lots and a weekly decrease rate of - 16.04% [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,376 tons, with a weekly decrease of 8,372 tons and a weekly decrease rate of - 10.12% [5]. Spot Prices of Nickel - The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 123,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 400 yuan and a decrease rate of - 0.32%. The price of imported nickel is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 450 yuan and a decrease rate of - 0.37% [5]. Inventory Data - **Nickel Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 47,708 tons, with no change. The LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, with a decrease of 24 tons [7]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory is 952.6 thousand tons, with an increase of 47 thousand tons [7]. - **Nickel Pig Iron Inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory is 29,062 tons, with a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Industry Chain Data Upstream Nickel Ore - **Nickel Ore Price**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 1.5% (FOB) is presented in the report, showing historical price trends [15]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports shows seasonal changes [15]. Nickel Iron - **Nickel Iron Price**: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival port, tax - included) are presented [16]. - **Nickel Iron Production**: The monthly production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia shows seasonal characteristics [17][18]. Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price**: The average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel is presented, showing price trends from February 2024 to August 2025 [20]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Premium**: The premium of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel over primary nickel (plate) is shown [22]. - **Profit Margins**: The profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased sulfuric acid nickel show seasonal changes [23]. - **Production Volume**: The monthly production volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China shows historical data [24]. Stainless Steel - **Profit Margin**: The profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils shows seasonal characteristics [26]. - **Production Volume**: The monthly production volume of stainless steel shows seasonal changes [28]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory shows seasonal changes [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are expected to maintain a high - level operation in the short term, with prices supported by pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an estimated impact of 741,000 tons on building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will stop production, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished product prices hit a new low recently, with a pessimistic market sentiment in the context of weak supply and demand. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - The supply of the aluminum market has a small increase due to the climbing of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% [3] - The aluminum cable sector is the main driving force, with the operating rate rising by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. The aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry has limited upward momentum [3] - On September 25, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared with Monday and last Thursday. Short - term downstream purchasing increased, and the spot premium was firm [3] - In the medium - term, aluminum consumption is generally warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating, and the overseas interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Last week, the aluminum price rose strongly. Due to the surge in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and moderate inflation, the Fed may resume interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 [1] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly. The alumina spot price moves narrowly, and the electrolytic aluminum's immediate cost changes little [2] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased by 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in mid - September needs further observation [2] - With the macro interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled and the transition to the peak season, macro and fundamental factors are favorable, and the price is expected to be supported and run at a high level recently. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing mixed factors, with macroeconomic interest rate cut expectations potentially providing some support despite underlying supply and demand challenges [1] Group 1: Bullish Factors - LME inventory has decreased, indicating a relief in supply pressure [1] - The overseas monthly spread is in a backwardation structure, suggesting strong spot demand [1] Group 2: Bearish Factors - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has increased, reflecting an oversupply in the domestic market [1] - Social inventory is accumulating due to weak fundamentals caused by the off-season in demand [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The zinc fundamentals are insufficiently supportive, but macroeconomic interest rate cut expectations may provide some uplift [1]

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the import volume of refined copper has declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons per month, raising net import pressure for China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has risen to 85%, which, along with a weaker dollar, has increased the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low holding of copper futures below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations of interest rate cuts and tightening supply are supporting copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas are limiting price increases, leading to a short-term expectation of strong fluctuations in copper prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with its price center of gravity shifting downwards and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Steel Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the market is volatile, and investors are focusing on the key employment report on Friday. Previous data shows a softening labor market, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. The increase in initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [1]. - On the supply side, the replacement capacity continues to be released, and the weekly output increased slightly to 847,300 tons. On the cost side, the full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 16,618 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit narrowed to around 3,991 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [2]. - On the demand side, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. The "Golden September" effect is emerging, and each sector is recovering well. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly by 0.2% to 56.6%, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 1.2 percentage points to 68.6%, and the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased by 1 percentage point to 64.8% [2]. - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2].

Group 1 - Aluminum prices exhibited a range-bound movement, influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of Thursday, the total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in the country reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operational capacity of 91.79 million tons per year, resulting in a utilization rate of 83.20% [1] - The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 58.7%, while the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by demand from power grid orders [1] Group 2 - In July, the national aluminum rod production was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June, with a manufacturer operating rate of only 53.2%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.89% and a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [1] - Factors such as inventory accumulation, weak demand, and high aluminum prices have led aluminum rod manufacturers to reduce production and conduct maintenance [1] - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous Monday and the Thursday of the previous week [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic expectation of interest rate cuts is supporting aluminum prices, while short-term news from the mining sector is providing a boost to prices [1] - It is anticipated that aluminum prices will remain high in the short term, with a focus on inventory trends and macroeconomic sentiment [1] - Future considerations include macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical factors, mining sector recovery, and consumer demand release [1]