畅力资产宝晓辉： 中国权益资产仍是配置"必选项" ◎胡尧 记者 马嘉悦 进入四季度，A股市场有所调整，黄金价格也出现了短线回落。接下来，大类资产何处去？权益资产性 价比将如何演变？投资组合应聚焦还是均衡？针对市场关切的问题，上海证券报记者近日专访了宏观策 略私募——畅力资产董事长宝晓辉。在她看来，外部不确定性以及美元走弱趋势或将延续，黄金配置价 值依旧显著。另外，伴随着无风险收益率下行，全球资金正经历重新配置的过程，中国权益资产是组合 中的"必选项"，尤其是成长空间广阔的科技、受益于经济复苏的资源股值得关注。 浸淫资本市场十余年，宝晓辉始终坚持平衡投资体系。谈及四季度，她称，在黄金、权益等资产前期涨 幅显著的背景下，一方面可结合业绩进行股票组合的"高低切换"，另一方面可以固收为底，做好波动的 控制。 黄金与权益机会丰富 "拨开迷雾，明月在望。"在接受记者采访时，宝晓辉如是概括当前大类资产配置的方向。 "四季度以来，市场扰动因素有所增加，尤其是经过前期的强势上涨，权益资产和黄金资产估值都显著 拔高。不管是地缘政治的变化还是资金获利了结的诉求，都让当下的大类资产配置'迷雾重重'。"宝晓 辉坦言。 不过，她认为，短 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that confidence in Chinese assets is recovering, as evidenced by the strengthening of the RMB and the rise of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index [1][3] - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have risen for three consecutive days, approaching the significant level of 7.15, despite the People's Bank of China setting the midpoint rate lower at 7.1188 [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index has achieved five consecutive gains, reaching its highest level since March 20, indicating a significant improvement in overseas investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - Positive signals from improved China-U.S. relations and domestic policies aimed at supporting the AI sector are enhancing market sentiment [5] - There is a potential shift in the core logic of asset pricing in the Chinese market, with a focus on the recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the possibility of a transition in asset styles [5] - If policies aimed at improving corporate competition, such as "anti-involution," are effectively implemented, it could lead to a rise in inflation in the real economy, prompting a transition to a more favorable asset style [5] Group 3 - The direction of the RMB exchange rate is a key variable in the current asset revaluation, with strong export performance supporting the currency [6] - There is an expectation that if the U.S. dollar enters a depreciation cycle, foreign capital will likely increase its holdings of Chinese equity assets [6] - September is seen as a critical observation window, where a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could create favorable conditions for RMB appreciation [6]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]