两轮车系列专题：政策发力叠加格局优化，行业高景气拐 点渐近 20251215 摘要 2025 年中大排摩托车内销增速放缓，预计全年与去年持平，但玩乐人 群扩容提升渗透率，头部企业如春风动力、隆鑫通用和钱江摩托受益， 市占率有望提升。 2025 年中国摩托车出口强劲，110cc 以上摩托车出口同比增长 24%，250cc 以上中大排量摩托车出口同比增长 60%，海外市场潜力 巨大，尤其是欧美市场。 中国摩托车品牌通过提升产品性能、智能化配置和供应链优势，逐步缩 小与日系品牌的差距，在欧洲市场市占率有所提升，但仍有较大增长空 间。 2025 年土耳其市场汇率波动对中国摩托车出口造成短期影响，但长期 来看，中国品牌在欧美、南美及东南亚等地的布局仍具成长空间。 2025 年电动两轮车行业受以旧换新政策驱动，但政策效果减弱，新国 标实施后，终端销售表现平淡，头部企业如雅迪、爱玛面临抢占市场份 额的机会。 Q&A 2025 年国内中大排摩托车市场表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，国内中大排摩托车销量表现相对稳健，主要由于 2024 年同 期基数较低，前五个月内销销量同比增长约 30%。然而，从 6 月份开始，由于 去年基数 ...

Group 1: Two-Wheelers - The two-wheeler market in Europe and the US shows marginal improvement in growth rates, with emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia maintaining steady demand, while Latin America exhibits high growth rates [1] - Japanese and Indian brands are experiencing continuous sales and revenue growth due to emerging market demand and market share gains in mature markets, while local brands in high-end markets face sales pressure [1] - The consumption structure of motorcycles is changing, leading to a divergence in pricing, unit profits, and profit margins among brands from different regions [1] Group 2: Four-Wheelers - The demand for four-wheelers in Europe and the US is recovering, benefiting from low base effects and interest rate cuts, although leading brands are facing profit margin declines due to rising tariff costs and increased expenses [2] - Secondary brands like Kawasaki are experiencing growth in volume and revenue due to effective inventory management and new product launches, while leading brands are struggling with inventory issues [2] Group 3: Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, with brands like Chuanfeng, Longxin, and Taotao achieving continuous revenue and profit growth, and Taotao setting a record for quarterly profit [3] - Chinese motorcycle companies are diversifying into AI, robotics, and semiconductor sectors, establishing a second growth curve alongside their core business [3] Group 4: Outlook - Japanese companies forecast continued growth in motorcycle sales and revenue in emerging markets, while competition in the global market is expected to intensify, providing opportunities for Chinese companies to gain market share [4] - In the four-wheeler sector, leading brands are expected to lose market share due to high inventory and increased competition, while secondary brands like Kawasaki and Chuanfeng are positioning themselves for growth [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is positioned for growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased leisure demand, with Chinese motorcycle companies improving product quality and competitive pricing to capture overseas market share [5] - Recommended investment targets include Chuanfeng Power, a leader in all-terrain vehicle exports, and Taotao, a strong brand in the golf cart market [5]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market over the next six months [27]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the automotive sector achieved a revenue of 1,928.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 80.138 billion yuan, up 6.16% year-on-year. The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the explosive sales of new energy vehicles and expansion into overseas markets [1][12]. - The overall gross margin for the automotive sector decreased to 15.56%, and the net margin was 4.34%, reflecting a decline of 0.52 and 0.06 percentage points respectively compared to the same period in 2024. This decline was attributed to price cuts and promotional strategies adopted by manufacturers to stimulate demand and clear inventory [2][14]. - The automotive industry showed significant internal differentiation among its sub-sectors, with varying performance in revenue and profit margins. The motorcycle and other segments demonstrated strong profitability, while the passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle sectors faced intense competition and profit compression [3][19]. Summary by Sections Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector's revenue growth slightly outpaced profit growth in H1 2025, with revenue at 1,928.764 billion yuan and net profit at 80.138 billion yuan. The growth was fueled by new energy vehicle sales and overseas market expansion, although internal competition pressured profit margins [1][12]. Sub-Sector Analysis - In H1 2025, the revenue and net profit for various sub-sectors were as follows: passenger vehicles (945.383 billion yuan, +9.73%), auto parts (716.460 billion yuan, +13.18%), commercial vehicles (172.550 billion yuan, -0.54%), motorcycles and others (49.799 billion yuan, +23.19%), and automotive services (44.573 billion yuan, -47.38%). The net profit figures showed a mixed performance, with notable declines in passenger and commercial vehicles [3][17]. - The gross margins for sub-sectors were: passenger vehicles (14.36%), auto parts (18.49%), commercial vehicles (10.40%), motorcycles and others (20.64%), and automotive services (8.02%). The motorcycle segment exhibited strong profitability, while the passenger and commercial vehicle sectors faced margin pressures due to competitive dynamics [19][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on segments with strong profitability and growth certainty, particularly in the auto parts sector, which has shown resilience and quality growth. Companies involved in the "electrification and intelligence" of vehicles with high technical barriers and customer loyalty are highlighted as key investment opportunities [25].

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with passenger car sales showing a slight year-on-year increase while the overall market sentiment remains weak [3][4][5]. Passenger Cars - In the week of September 22-28, 2025, passenger car sales reached 653,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 26.6% [2]. - For Q3 2025, wholesale passenger car sales are projected to be 7.686 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.7% and a month-on-month growth of 8.1% [5][58]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in Q3 2025 is expected to be 52.4%, with NEV wholesale sales reaching 4.024 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [5][19]. - The export of passenger cars in Q3 2025 is anticipated to be 1.592 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [19][62]. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the A-share automotive sector declining by 6.1% during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [3]. - The performance of various sub-sectors varied, with commercial passenger vehicles increasing by 3.7%, while other segments like passenger cars and automotive parts saw declines ranging from 2.9% to 8.0% [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi, among others, focusing on those with strong performance in the NEV sector [4][8][58]. - In the parts sector, companies involved in intelligent driving and smart cockpit technologies are recommended, such as Berteli and Jifeng [8]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is experiencing significant growth, with Q3 2025 wholesale sales reaching 282,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.1% [40][62]. - New energy heavy trucks are particularly strong, with sales of 58,000 units in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 181.5% [45][62]. Motorcycles - The market for large-displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) is projected to see wholesale sales of 258,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [56][63]. - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 50.5% [52][63]. Component Sector - The component sector is benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for companies [34][35][62]. - Companies in the supply chain for leading manufacturers like Xiaomi, Xpeng, and NIO are expected to perform well in terms of revenue [38][62].

Core Viewpoint - The power sports industry is in a growth phase driven by consumption upgrades and increased demand for leisure and entertainment, particularly benefiting all-terrain vehicles and large-displacement motorcycles [1] Industry Summary - The all-terrain vehicle and large-displacement motorcycle segments are experiencing increased penetration in the market due to rising consumer demand [1] - Chinese motorcycle companies have significantly improved product capabilities, showcasing clear cost-performance advantages that position them well to capture overseas market share [1] - Continuous optimization of product structure is leading to sustained increases in market share and profit margins for these companies [1] Company Recommendations - Chosen as a recommended stock is Chunfeng Power (603129.SH), which is expanding from high-end recreational products into the mass transportation sector, particularly in the all-terrain vehicle export market [1] - Another recommended company is Taotao Vehicle (301375.SZ), recognized for its strong brand in golf carts and emerging presence in humanoid robotics [1] - Attention is also drawn to Longxin General (603766.SH) and other Chinese motorcycle export companies as potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The power sports industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by consumer upgrades and increasing demand for leisure and entertainment, particularly in all-terrain vehicles and mid-to-large displacement motorcycles [1] - Chinese motorcycle companies have improved product capabilities and cost-performance advantages, positioning themselves to capture overseas market share while continuously optimizing product structure and increasing market share and profit margins [1] Two-Wheelers - Emerging markets are showing steady growth, with Japanese and Indian companies achieving sustained sales and revenue growth in both domestic and export markets, while European and American brands face pressure [2] - The demand in Europe and North America is marginally improving, but competition is intensifying, leading to a divergence in pricing, unit profits, and profit margins among brands [2] Four-Wheelers - Demand in Europe and North America is declining due to inflation, with leading brands facing pressure from high inventory levels and increased competition, resulting in decreased profit margins [3] - Secondary brands like Kawasaki are benefiting from capacity release and new product launches, achieving volume and revenue growth [3] Chinese Companies - Chinese companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, with Spring Wind, Longxin, and Taotao achieving record revenue and profit in Q2 2025, while also exploring new growth areas such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors [4] - The revenue and profit of Spring Wind, Longxin, and Taotao have reached historical highs for a single quarter [4] Outlook - Japanese companies forecast continued growth in motorcycle sales in 2025, with expectations of growth in emerging markets for brands like Honda, Suzuki, and Kawasaki [5] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify globally, with Chinese companies likely to capture more market share, while leading four-wheeler brands may see a decline in market share due to weak demand and high inventory [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent disclosure of semi-annual reports by listed companies reveals significant investments from long-term funds such as social security and basic pension insurance funds, with over 40 social security fund portfolios and 20 basic pension fund portfolios appearing among the top ten shareholders of approximately 160 listed companies as of August 21 [1] Group 1: Social Security Fund Investments - Over 140 A-share companies have attracted investments from social security fund portfolios, with some companies having multiple social security fund portfolios among their top ten shareholders [2] - Changshu Bank has four social security fund portfolios among its top ten shareholders, with a total holding value exceeding 2 billion yuan [2][3] - Notable companies receiving multiple social security fund investments include Nanwei Medical, Kaili New Materials, and Su Shi Testing, each with three social security fund portfolios in their top ten shareholders [3] Group 2: Basic Pension Fund Investments - More than 20 basic pension fund portfolios have entered the top ten shareholders of over 40 A-share companies, with companies like Chunfeng Power and Lanxiao Technology being particularly favored [4] - Chunfeng Power has seen significant investment from basic pension fund portfolios, with one portfolio holding over 1 billion yuan and another newly entering the top ten shareholders [4] - Other companies such as Hongfa Shares and Haixing Electric Power have also attracted attention from basic pension fund portfolios [4] Group 3: Total Holdings and Market Impact - As of August 21, social security and basic pension fund portfolios collectively hold over 46 billion yuan in A-shares, with social security funds accounting for over 37 billion yuan of this total [5] - Chunfeng Power has the highest holding value among these funds, exceeding 2.1 billion yuan, with both social security and basic pension fund portfolios among its top shareholders [5][6] - A total of nine A-share companies have received over 1 billion yuan in holdings from these funds, spanning various sectors including automotive, PCB, banking, chemicals, food and beverage, medical, and electrical [6]

Core Insights - Long-term funds such as social security funds and basic pension insurance funds have significantly increased their holdings in A-share companies, with over 40 social security fund portfolios and more than 20 basic pension fund portfolios appearing among the top ten shareholders of approximately 160 listed companies as of August 21 [1] Group 1: Social Security Fund Investments - Over 140 A-share companies have been favored by social security fund portfolios, with some companies receiving interest from multiple funds [2] - Changshu Bank has four social security fund portfolios among its top ten shareholders, with a total holding value exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] - Other companies like Nanwei Medical, Kaili New Materials, and Su Shi Testing also attracted multiple social security fund portfolios [2][3] - The highest individual holdings by social security funds are in Pengding Holdings and Wanhua Chemical, with values of 1.38 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2: Basic Pension Fund Investments - More than 20 basic pension fund portfolios have entered the top ten shareholders of over 40 A-share companies, with companies like Chunfeng Power and Lanxiao Technology being particularly popular [4] - Chunfeng Power has seen significant investment from basic pension funds, with one portfolio holding over 1 billion yuan and another newly entering the top ten shareholders [4] - Other companies such as Hongfa Shares, Haixing Electric Power, and Huafeng Aluminum have also gained attention from basic pension fund portfolios [4] Group 3: Total Holdings and Market Impact - As of August 21, social security and basic pension fund portfolios collectively held over 46 billion yuan in A-shares, with social security funds accounting for more than 37 billion yuan [5] - Chunfeng Power has the highest total holding value among these funds, exceeding 2.1 billion yuan, with continuous increases in holdings over five consecutive quarters [5][6] - A total of nine A-share companies have received over 1 billion yuan in holdings from these funds, spanning various sectors including automotive, PCB, banking, chemicals, food and beverage, medical, and electrical [6]

Group 1 - Social security funds and basic pension insurance funds have invested in over 160 listed companies, with more than 40 social security fund portfolios and over 20 basic pension fund portfolios appearing in the top ten circulating shareholders of these companies [1][2] - Over 140 A-share companies have been favored by social security fund portfolios, with some companies like Changshu Bank having all four of its top ten shareholders being social security fund portfolios, totaling a market value of over 2 billion yuan [1][2] - Notable companies receiving significant investments include Pengding Holdings and Wanhua Chemical, with holdings valued at 1.38 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan respectively from the National Social Security Fund [2][3] Group 2 - Basic pension insurance fund portfolios have entered the top ten circulating shareholders of over 40 A-share companies, with Spring Wind Power and Blue Sky Technology being particularly favored, each with holdings exceeding 1 billion yuan [2][3] - The total market value held by social security and basic pension funds exceeds 46 billion yuan, with social security funds accounting for over 37 billion yuan of this total [3][4] - Spring Wind Power has seen a significant increase in its market value, with its top shareholders including both social security and basic pension fund portfolios, and it reported a net profit growth of 38.38% year-on-year [4]

Summary of Chuanfeng Power Conference Call Company Overview - Chuanfeng Power has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth, with average annual growth rates of 36% for revenue and 52% for profit from 2019 to 2024, resulting in revenue quadrupling and profit octupling during this period [2][3] Industry Insights All-Terrain Vehicle (ATV) Market - The global ATV market has stabilized at over 1 million units, with Chuanfeng Power maintaining over 70% of national export share and increasing its North American market share to over 10% [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from new products and tariff policy optimizations, potentially achieving a 20% market share in the U.S. and 50% in non-U.S. regions, translating to annual sales of 300,000 units [5] Motorcycle Market - The global motorcycle market, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement segment, presents significant growth opportunities, with a market size of approximately 5 million units, ten times that of the domestic market [6][7] - Chuanfeng Power has made progress in Europe, with market shares in Italy and Spain increasing, and aims to capture a larger share in emerging markets like Latin America and Southeast Asia [8][10][11] Electric Two-Wheeler Market - Chuanfeng Power's electric two-wheeler business is expanding rapidly, with production capacity expected to reach 300,000 units by the end of the year, and projected sales of 10,000 to 180,000 units from 2024 to 2027 [13] Strategic Goals - The company aims to achieve annual global sales of 1 million units across its product lines, contributing at least 15 billion RMB in net profit [12] - Chuanfeng Power plans to enhance its product matrix with new models, including the SR series and NK series, and establish a sub-brand CF light to target the small-displacement market [2][12] Financial Projections - The all-terrain vehicle segment is projected to contribute over 35 billion RMB in net profit, while traditional motorcycles and electric two-wheelers are expected to contribute over 300 billion and 100 billion RMB, respectively [14] - Overall, Chuanfeng Power is positioned to grow into a company with a market capitalization of over 100 billion RMB, competing with Indian and Japanese counterparts [14][15]