成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡延续 期价高位震荡运行 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 碳酸锂 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，节前锂辉石精矿(CIF)价格微涨，云母略降；本 周 SMM 周度开工率回升至 49.75%（较 2 月 12 日+3.73%），周度总产量增 至 21822 吨（+560 吨），供应边际增加。需求端表现分化，本周铁锂增产 去库，三元降产增库；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降至 36.3%， 处相对低位；1 月，动力+储能电池合计产量为 168.0GWh，环比-16.7%， 同比+55.9%；销量 148.8GWh，环比-25.4%，同比+85.1%。储能电芯产销两 旺且库存低位，成结构性亮点。库存端，节前 SMM 四地样本社会库存增 3160 吨至 46210 吨，本周样本周度总库存去库至 100093 吨，处于相对低位， 总库存天数降至 28.2 天，整 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：津巴布韦禁令发酵 助推盘面强势运行 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，节前锂辉石精矿(CIF)价格微涨，云母略降；SMM 周度开工率 46.02%（-1.27%），除锂云母外，其他工艺开工率均下降，SMM 周度总产量 20184 吨（-560 吨），供应小幅收缩。需求端表现分化，铁锂 增产去库，三元产量库存双降；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降 至 36.3%，处相对低位；1 月，动力+储能电池合计产量为 168.0GWh，环比 -16.7%，同比+55.9%；销量 148.8GWh，环比-25.4%，同比+85.1%。储能电 芯产销两旺且库存低位，成结构性亮点。库存端，节前 SMM 四地样本社会 库存增 3160 吨至 46210 吨，样本周度总库存去库至 102932 吨，总库存天 数降至 29.6 天，回归紧平衡格局。 宏观政策层面，需求侧，汽车以旧换新补贴与电池出口退税直接刺激 终端消费，改善宏观流动性；供给侧，发改委 1 月发布新能源汽车动力电 池综合利用管理办法，提高回收门槛、淘汰落后产能，长期优化国内供应 并抬升成本支撑中枢；产业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Carbonate lithium futures rose to a new high in two years, with total positions decreasing by 9,244 lots and increasing capital exit sentiment. The spot price increased by 2,000 to 101,500, Australian ore rose by 30 to 1,435, mica rose by 85 to 3,210, ternary materials rose by 700 - 800, lithium iron phosphate rose by 470 - 490, and electrolyte prices remained flat. The industry chain price increase trend continued, and there was still fundamental support. However, the short - term deviation between futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium was large. As the LC2601 contract was about to enter delivery, the pressure of futures - spot convergence might slow down the short - term upward pace of lithium prices [11] 3. Industry News Summary - On December 24, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that it had acquired two salt lake lithium mines in Argentina at low cost at the bottom of the industry cycle, and 100% equity transfer procedures had been completed. The two salt lake lithium mines were still in the exploration and construction stage [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued several opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. They supported new energy bases such as large - scale "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new energy bases for external transmission, water - wind - solar bases for external transmission, and various self - use bases with suitable technical and economic conditions to carry out solar thermal power station project construction. They would scientifically determine the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in the bases, optimize and improve the base regulation capacity, increase the proportion of green electricity in the base, reduce the average carbon emissions per kilowatt - hour of the base, strengthen the stable transmission of new energy, and actively explore the role of technically and economically feasible solar thermal power stations as supporting and regulating power sources in large bases [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. After the sentiment of supply - side disturbances faded, the high point of the previous day had obvious suppression. Although the weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate slowed down, which was expected to dampen short - term market enthusiasm, the callback space of lithium prices was limited due to the stable price increase trend in the industrial chain [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The high point of the previous day had strong suppression after supply - side disturbances subsided. The price of electric carbon increased by 500 to 97550, the price of Australian ore increased by 10 to 1340, the price of mica increased by 40 to 2825, the price of ternary increased by 200 - 800, the price of iron - lithium increased by 120, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1044 tons to 110425 tons, and the de - stocking intensity continued to slow down [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that although the global lithium carbonate price had risen significantly due to increased supply uncertainty and improved future demand prospects, it was still lower than last year's average. On December 10, the price reached $10,500 per ton, a 13% increase from the end of October. The average price this year was $9306 per ton, 24% lower than the 2024 level. Despite expected oversupply in the market this year and next, prices continued to rise. Lithium prices were expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the resumption of major mines might cause short - term price drops. The consumption of lithium - battery energy storage systems was expected to increase, driving prices up [13]. - BloombergNEF's "2025 Transition Metals Outlook" report stated that lithium supply continued to grow. Supported by new project launches in South America and Africa, the maturity of direct extraction technology, and increased secondary supply, the total lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity might increase from 1.5 million tons in 2025 to 4.4 million tons in 2035. Lithium prices were still low after falling from the peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022, but recent production interruptions and subsidy cuts had led to a slight rebound [13].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with futures prices showing a notable increase followed by a slight decline, while the spot market is witnessing a decrease in average prices despite improved trading activity earlier in the week [1][3][9]. Supply Summary - As of December 11, lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.75% [3][10]. - The production adjustment by some companies is attributed to regular procurement rhythms, while most production lines are operating at standard levels [3][10]. - The expected increase in lithium carbonate production aligns with a strengthening demand outlook, leading to a scenario where supply growth lags behind demand growth [4][10]. Demand Summary - The utilization rates for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are 75% and 56%, respectively, indicating varied demand levels [4][10]. - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in December showed a year-on-year decline of 17% and a month-on-month decline of 10% [4][11]. - The demand for ternary batteries remains strong, with an anticipated increase in production for high-end models in December [4][10]. Price Dynamics - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased to 92,220 yuan/ton, down 920 yuan/ton from the previous period, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell to 91,060 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton [3][9]. - Despite high prices suppressing immediate purchases, the market is supported by underlying demand from downstream sectors [7][12]. - The market is expected to experience a slowdown in inventory depletion due to a marginal easing of supply and demand dynamics in December [5][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with expectations of inventory accumulation by the end of December and a potential decline in demand in January due to seasonal factors [5][11]. - The overall sentiment remains cautious, with ongoing monitoring of production recovery among major manufacturers influencing market volatility [5][11].

Group 1 - The company is closely monitoring the developments and trends in the solid-state battery industry [2] - Mica, as a natural insulating material, has potential application value in solid-state batteries due to its high-temperature resistance and good insulation properties [2] - The company has maintained close communication with relevant solid-state battery customers and is conducting product validation work [2] Group 2 - The company is actively exploring the application margins and value of its "Mica+" product layout in the solid-state battery industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; No positions recommended for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern is improving with reduced inventory and production. Although some mines have obtained safety production licenses, there is still uncertainty in subsequent mine approvals. The lithium carbonate price may rise after a decline due to support from the consumer side, but the short - term market will be volatile, and participants should manage risks [3] Market Analysis - On August 27, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 79,260 yuan/ton and closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, a - 0.23% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 729,645 lots, and the open interest was 351,322 lots. The basis was 1,400 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,477 lots, a change of 787 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,600 - 83,600 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 78,700 - 79,900 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 920 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline [1] - Due to pre - stockpiling by some downstream material factories, the weekly procurement volume decreased. The downstream is cautious, waiting for price drops. Despite this, the "Golden September and Silver October" season provides some rigid support for demand [1] Production and Inventory - Weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. Production from spodumene increased, while that from mica decreased. Weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Downstream inventory increased significantly, and smelter inventory decreased [2] Strategy - Pay attention to mine operations. Lithium carbonate may rise after a decline, but short - term market fluctuations are large, and participants should manage risks [3]

Group 1 - The company, Kuncai Technology (603826.SH), primarily engages in the production and sales of pearlescent materials and mica, and does not currently involve plastic chemical management in its production process [1] - An investor inquired about the company's involvement with plastic chemicals and the absence of related disclosures in annual and ESG reports, questioning future plans for such disclosures [1]

Industry Overview - The mica industry is transitioning from traditional mineral processing to high-end new material manufacturing, revealing the deep restructuring of upstream materials due to the new energy revolution [1][11] - The market size of China's mica industry is projected to reach 8.37 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 27.73% [1][11] - Synthetic mica technology breakthroughs are reshaping the industry landscape, with Zhejiang Rongtai developing nano-level mica composite materials that have improved breakdown strength to 25KV/mm, successfully entering the aerospace insulation field [1][11] Market Dynamics - In the electronic packaging sector, low dielectric constant mica sheets have achieved import substitution, with mica substrates for 5G base station filters capturing over 25% market share [1][11] - The "Expansion of Domestic Demand Strategic Plan" includes mica in the research directory for frontier new materials, and the upgrade of safety standards for power batteries directly boosts the demand for high-end mica [1][11] Industry Development Stages - The mica industry in China has experienced four main stages: initial development (1950-1960s), rapid growth (1970-1980s), industrial upgrading (1990-2000s), and innovative development (2010-present) [4][5] - The current phase emphasizes the application of mica products in new energy vehicle battery thermal runaway protection, with mandatory safety standards implemented in 2021 driving demand growth [5][11] Key Enterprises - Major companies in the mica industry include Ping An Electric (001359), Zhejiang Rongtai (603119), and Dongcai Technology (601208), with a competitive landscape characterized by leading enterprises and diverse players [2][15] - Ping An Electric has a comprehensive supply chain capability from mica mining to end insulation material production, widely applied in high-end sectors such as new energy vehicles and energy storage systems [15][17] - Zhejiang Rongtai focuses on high-temperature insulation mica products, with over 70% of its revenue coming from the new energy vehicle sector, showcasing significant growth [19] Future Trends - Technological innovation is driving industry upgrades, with synthetic mica and functionalized materials becoming mainstream [21] - The explosive growth in new energy demand, particularly in power batteries and energy storage markets, is expected to significantly increase the demand for mica materials [22][23] - Globalization is accelerating, with Chinese mica companies transitioning from "product export" to "technology output," enhancing international market penetration [24]