交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年7月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为18813吨，环比增长3.80%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为94110吨，环比增加0.48%,上周三元材料样本 企业库存为16071吨，环比增加1.38%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为62936元/吨，日环比增长0.69%,生产所得为-160元/ 吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为68253元/吨，日环比增长0.68%,生产所得为- ...

2025 年 7 月 11 日 碳酸锂：累库加速但仓单偏少，震荡格局或延续 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 64,400 | 520 | 440 | 3,520 | 3,440 | -11,560 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 350,125 | -195,280 | -190,310 | -16,618 | 284,794 | 346,679 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 326,895 | -11,139 | 1,321 | -23,511 | 138,865 | 309,525 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约 ...

免责声明 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/7/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 64,180.00 | -220.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -91,137.00 | +2170.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 323,683.00 | -3212.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 360.00 | -180.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 13,281.00 | +626.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 63,650.00 | +350.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 62,050.00 | +350.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -530.00 | +570.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 696.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石 ...

| | 锂云母 | 820 | 20 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT / H4 | 一工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1385 | 30 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 4500 | 75 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 5340 | 80 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 30950 | 100 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 142780 | 20 | | | | | | 三元材料523 (単晶/动力型) | 114955 | 50 | | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 120255 | 0 | | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | | 电碳- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年7月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18123吨 ， | 环比减少3 43% . , | 高于历史同期平均水平 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93660 . | 5691056911吨 ， | 环比增加3 . | 75% 上周 , | | | | | 三元材料样本企业库存为15852吨 | 环比增加3 ， . | 59% 。 | | | | | 1 | 基本面: 、 | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂 ...

2025 年 7 月 10 日 碳酸锂：矿端存增量预期，仓单回升但总量偏低 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 64,400 | 520 | 440 | 3,520 | 3,440 | -11,560 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 350,125 | -195,280 | -190,310 | -16,618 | 284,794 | 346,679 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 326,895 | -11,139 | 1,321 | -23,511 | 138,865 | 309,525 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约（收盘价） | 64,080 | 540 | 520 ...

Market Overview - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.18%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.89%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.27%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.06% [4]. - The best-performing sectors on July 9 were Media (+1.35%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (+0.65%), Retail (+0.48%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+0.43%), and Social Services (+0.42%). The worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-2.26%), Basic Chemicals (-0.85%), Electronics (-0.82%), Defense and Military Industry (-0.73%), and Home Appliances (-0.64%) [4]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 9 was 15,274.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.257 billion HKD from southbound funds [4]. Important Recommendations Company: Ping An Electric (001359) - The company is recognized as a leader in mica insulation materials, with continuous breakthroughs in integrated and synthetic new products [5]. - The recommendation logic highlights that the main business is steadily growing, and new products are consistently expanding. The market perceives mica insulation materials as a niche segment with limited growth potential, but emerging demands from the new energy sector, such as lithium battery thermal runaway protection and energy storage, are expected to drive rapid industry growth [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,288 million, 1,547 million, and 1,853 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.85%, 20.11%, and 19.78% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 271 million, 322 million, and 386 million yuan, with growth rates of 24.88%, 18.82%, and 19.88% respectively [5]. Company: 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555) - The company is expected to see valuation recovery driven by the success of major games such as "Douluo Dalu: Soul Hunting World" [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 19,140 million, 21,949 million, and 25,260 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.74%, 14.68%, and 15.08% respectively. Net profit projections are 2,758 million, 3,276 million, and 3,788 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.17%, 18.80%, and 15.62% respectively [9].

资金博弈推升碳酸锂震荡，供需矛盾制约上行空间 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约7月8日报63880元/吨，较前一日小幅上 涨0.35%。基差继续走弱，现货贴水期货幅度扩大至-1080元，远期供需改 善预期仍存分歧。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量单日大幅增加15500手，成交量暴涨155.69% 至54.5万手，创近一周新高，多空资金博弈加剧。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：短期扰动因素增多。锂盐厂产能利用率环比下降1个百分点至 61.8%，但中期供给放量压力仍存。原料价格维持僵持，锂辉石精矿与锂云 母精矿价格近两周持平。 需求端：边际改善但弹性不足。6月新能源车零售107.1万辆，同比增长 25%，渗透率突破52.7%，终端数据超预期。但传导至正极材料环节有限， 三元材料和磷酸铁锂仅微幅跟涨，电芯价格全线持稳，中游采购仍以长协 为主，零单补库意愿低迷。 库存与仓单：产业链累库压力延续，碳酸锂总库存环比增加1510吨至 138347吨，连续四周攀升。 市场小结 碳酸锂市场短期或延续震荡上行格局，但上行空间仍受供应端过剩的因素 限制。基本面矛盾依然突出，新能源车销量增 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/07/09 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM. 公开新闻整理 锂化合物 平均价 1000000 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 62900 350 4000 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 61300 350 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 碳酸锂2507 65100 2.01% 碳酸锂2508 64240 0. 85% 40000 碳酸锂2509 0. 69% 63880 碳酸锂2510 63740 0. 7% 1000 碳酸锂2511 63540 0. 6% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 658 4 44 (1 i 20 · 5 5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 61988 生产利 用 外购锂辉石精矿利润 46 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 67099 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6586 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口。根据路透社,2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that lithium carbonate is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the subsequent warehouse receipt volume. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts of lithium carbonate were 63,880 and 63,540 respectively, with changes of 220 and 200 compared to T - 1. The trading volumes of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were 545,405 and 55,172 respectively, and the open interests were 338,034 and 95,105 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 12,655 hands, a decrease of 2,900 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2509 contract was -980, and the basis between 2509 and 2511 contracts was 340 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) were 658 and 1,355 respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were 62,900 and 61,300 respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production Data**: In June 2025, the surveyed production of lithium carbonate was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned production in July was 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%. The production in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai regions showed different trends, and the production enthusiasm of some recycling manufacturers increased [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].