碳酸锂市场分析
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碳酸锂周报2025年10月27-31日:碳酸锂市场冲高回落,供需双强格局下资金博弈加剧-20251105
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 10:21
锂盐行情介绍 1 CHAPTER 1 碳酸锂市场冲高回落,供需双强格局下资金 博弈加剧 --碳酸锂周报2025年10月27-31日 作 者:杨江涛 执业证书编号:F03117249 交易咨询编号:Z0022644 联 系 方 式:0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】电池级碳酸锂周度上涨5.29%至83600元/吨,基差由负转正至2820元 | | | | /吨,显示现货市场情绪强于期货。工业级碳酸锂同步上涨5.39%至82150元/吨, | | | | 电碳工碳价差稳定在1450元/吨。 | | | | 【期货市场】主力合约周度振幅达5.86%,最高触及84940元/吨,持仓量增长 | | | | 18.38%至51万手,资金博弈激烈。周五单日大跌3.42%至80780元/吨,呈现高位回 | 预计下周碳酸锂 | | | 调特征。 | 将在80000- | | | 【供应方面】碳酸锂产能利用率维持74.39%,锂矿港口库存环比增长6.06%至7万 | 84000元/吨区间 | | | 吨,新产线投产但实 ...
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251009
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 12:03
碳酸锂产业日报 2025/10/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 73,340.00 | +540.00↑ 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -149,638.00 | +8581.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 229,022.00 | -2942.00↓ 近远月合约价差(日,元/吨) | 140.00 | +260.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单(日,手/吨) | 41,709.00 | +590.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价(日,元/吨) | 73,550.00 | 0.00 工业级碳酸锂平均价(日,万元/吨) | 71,300.00 | 0.00 | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 210.00 | -540.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价(日,美元/吨) | 869.00 | -7.00↓ 磷锂铝石平均价(日,元/吨) ...
碳酸锂市场周报:供给稳定需求增长,锂价或将有所支撑-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:56
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给稳定需求增长,锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 行情回顾:碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏弱,涨跌幅为-4.17%,振幅10.75%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价71160元/吨。 后市展望:宏观方面,国家统计局公布数据显示,受基数走高影响和食品价格拖累,中国8月CPI环比持平,同比下降 0.4%,核心CPI同比上涨0.9%,涨幅连续第4个月扩大。碳酸锂基本面原料端,近期碳酸锂现货价格走弱,拉拽锂矿 报价。海外矿山挺价惜售情绪较浓,国内冶炼厂询价较积极但整体成交较淡。供给方面,国内冶炼厂保持稳定小增的 生产节奏,随着锂价回调,冶炼厂库存持续下降,生产仍较为积极,国内供给量或将稳中小增。需求方面,传统消费 旺季,下游材料厂排产及新增订单情况较好,有一定刚需采买需求,下游库存不断增加,市场成交情绪有所回暖。总 体来看,碳酸锂基本面或处于供给稳定小增,需求逐步走好的阶段,产业总库存小幅下降,消费预期向好。 策略建议:轻仓逢低短 ...
天富期货碳酸锂日报-20250901
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 12:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate main contract has experienced significant fluctuations due to frequent disturbances on the supply side and needs time for digestion and consolidation in the short term. If the supply - side disturbance expectations remain unchanged, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in September, and prices may rise irrationally. Attention should be paid to whether the other 7 mining enterprises in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [4]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate may weaken next week, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. August Market Review - In August, the lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with the futures price breaking through 90,000 yuan/ton at its highest. Supply - side news had many disturbances, but the actual impact on the fundamentals was small, and price fluctuations were mainly due to futures market capital games [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - In August, despite supply - side disturbances, the monthly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high due to the increase in capacity utilization and hedging by external - purchasing enterprises. As of August 29, the weekly output decreased to 19,000 tons, with different trends in production from different sources. The import volume has declined for three consecutive months but is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential production halt of 7 mining enterprises in Yichun after September 30 [6][7]. Demand - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 311,400 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 3% to 70,800 tons. In the power market in July, new energy vehicle production and sales showed seasonal slowdown, and the power battery loading volume decreased. In the energy storage market, demand orders are good, with saturated production schedules in September and October, and high - price transactions for forward orders. The industry's anti - low - price initiative is expected to improve profitability [8][9]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, domestic inventory decreased slightly, with social inventory still exceeding 140,000 tons. Inventory is flowing from processing plants to downstream sectors, and warehouse receipts are rising after centralized cancellations [10]. 3. Technical Analysis - The 2 - hour cycle Band Winner indicator of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, indicating that the contract may weaken in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle long - short dividing water level overnight is 80,960 yuan/ton [11].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250827
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77360 - 80700 [9]. - In the next month, supply is expected to increase, while demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 78,520 yuan/ton, a 0.37% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,021 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, a 0.70% daily decrease, with a production loss of 2,848 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production profits and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other aspects**: On August 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [9]. - **Likely positive factors**: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: High - level supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery side to take delivery [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.54% to 920 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and other products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% month - on - month increase; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% month - on - month increase [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand - side data mainly includes the production, sales, and inventory data of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and other downstream products. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% month - on - month decrease; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a 5.04% month - on - month decrease [17][18]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,543 tons, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Among them, smelter inventory decreased by 5.72% to 46,846 tons, lower than the historical average; downstream inventory increased by 6.68% to 51,507 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventory decreased by 2.46% to 43,190 tons, higher than the historical average [9].
大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:14
大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 证券代码:839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年08月18日-08月22日 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一.回顾与展望 本周11合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为88160元/吨,周五收盘价为78960元/吨,周跌幅为10.40%。 供给端来看,本周碳酸锂产量为19138吨,高于历史同期平均水平,其中锂辉石产12179吨,环比增加 4.46%,高于历史同期平均水平,锂云母产2650吨,环比减少32.05%,低于历史同期平均水平,盐湖产2552 吨,环比减少6.92%,低于历史同期平均水平,回收产1757吨,环比增加4.65%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看,2025年7月碳酸锂需求量为96099实物吨,环比增加2.50%,预测下月需求量为102145实物 ...
碳酸锂:宽幅震荡,矿端扰动仍未落地
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is in a wide - range fluctuation, and the disturbances at the mining end have not been settled yet [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots from T - 1. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,580 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 457,258 lots, up 143,169 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 185,345 lots, up 22,225 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,350 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,370 yuan, down 220 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 20 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars, down 1 US dollar from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,858 yuan/ton, down 211 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, unchanged from the previous quarter and up 2.4% year - on - year; sold 412,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 12.6% from the previous quarter and down 22.3% year - on - year. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the cash cost guidance is 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3] - Pilgangoora produced 221,300 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, up 77.0% from the previous quarter; sold 216,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 72.1% from the previous quarter. The FOB cost in 2025Q2 was 619 Australian dollars/ton, down 9.6% from the previous quarter. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 820,000 - 870,000 tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the FOB cost guidance is 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3]
碳酸锂日报-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 64,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 400 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 626 tons to 13,281 tons [3]. - In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. However, due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short-term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 9, and the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton needs to be monitored. In the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Therefore, short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices changed on July 9, 2025, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate in July are analyzed, including production, imports, consumption, and inventory accumulation [3]. - The short - term and long - term price trends of lithium carbonate are predicted, and attention points and potential trading opportunities are proposed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 9, 2025, are presented, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products, along with their price changes compared with the previous day [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13] 3.3 Spreads - Charts illustrate the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][37] 3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40] 4. Colored Research Team Member Introduction - The team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [43][44] 5. Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [47]
安粮期货商品研究报告
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:40
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate briefly rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure again. This week, the main contract has switched to LC2509. The fundamentals show a weak supply - demand balance. The lithium ore market has stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight increase in the CIF price of spodumene concentrate and a significant decline in inventory. Although the weekly operating rate on the supply side has slightly declined, it is still at a high level. In the short term, lithium extraction from salt lakes has gradually replaced lithium extraction from mica as the main force for production growth. The demand side shows signs of weakness, with only the demand for power batteries remaining resilient, while the cathode material and terminal consumption sectors have not met expectations. Currently, the fundamentals have not substantially improved. The stabilization of ore prices provides bottom support, but the signal of upstream production cuts is unclear, and lithium prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while those with a higher risk appetite can seize the opportunities of range fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. On June 10, local time, a Zimbabwean cabinet minister said that to promote the development of local mining processing and encourage foreign companies to carry out refining operations in the country, Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. CRU Group data shows that in 2024, Zimbabwe supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the lithium sulfate it produces will still be shipped to China for processing into battery - grade materials [7]. 3.2 Cost Side - Lithium ore prices: As of June 16, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%) was 660 yuan/ton, and the CIF price was 628 (+20) US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 555 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (3.5 - 4%) was 735 yuan/ton. Except for the increase in the CIF price, other prices remained unchanged. - Lithium ore imports: In April, the monthly import volume of spodumene was 142,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.3%; the import value was 33 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 92.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. - Lithium ore inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory of lithium ore in China was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons. - Profit: As of June 13, according to Steel Union data, the average cost of lithium carbonate was 70,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,400 (-700) yuan/ton, still below the break - even point. Among them, the production cost of externally purchased spodumene was 60,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 84 (-1,200) yuan/ton. The production cost of externally purchased lepidolite was 72,000 (-2,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 11,000 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: According to Longzhong Information, the monthly output of lithium carbonate in April was 70,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in the week of June 13 was 62.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.6%. The main import areas were still concentrated in South America. In April, Chile exported 20,200 tons to China, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 29.2%. The import value in March was 270 million US dollars [7][12]. - Demand: In the week of June 16, the capacity utilization rate of ternary materials was 48.49%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% and a year - on - year increase of 0.66%; in May, the monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.78%, a year - on - year increase of 10.75% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In May, China's power battery output was 123.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% and a month - on - month increase of 4.48%; the power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, with a loading rate of 46.3%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% and a month - on - month increase of 13.1%, accounting for 17.2% of the total loading volume; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 46.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%, accounting for 81.6% of the total loading volume. From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 202,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 40% compared with the same period in June last year and a 4% increase compared with the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 58.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 4.559 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From June 1 - 8, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 166,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 5% compared with the same period in June last year and a 6% decrease compared with the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 5.373 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [7][14][15]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Weekly inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory was 133,549 (+1,117) physical tons, including 57,653 (+537) physical tons in smelter inventory, 40,686 (-390) physical tons in downstream inventory, and 35,210 (+970) physical tons in other links' inventory. - Monthly inventory: In May, the monthly inventory was 97,637 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 32% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. Among them, the downstream inventory was 42,246 (+4,358) physical tons, and the smelter inventory was 55,391 (-2,923) physical tons. - Exchange inventory: After centralized cancellation and re - registration at the end of March, as of June 13, the total number of warehouse receipts reached 32,118 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,191 lots compared with last week [18]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - Spot - futures prices: The price of the 2507 main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. And the main contract has switched to LC2509, so the trading volume and open interest data have significantly declined. The trading volume was 945,000 lots, a decrease of 275,000 lots compared with the previous period; the open interest decreased by 70,000 lots to 147,000 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was reported at 60,500 (-250) yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) was reported at 58,900 (-250) yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with the previous trading day. - Basis analysis: The spot - futures basis of the Lc2507 contract strengthened within the week, and the spot showed a premium on Friday. On June 13, the basis was 760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan/ton. - Spot - futures structure: On June 13, the 09 - 11 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 01 spread was - 480 yuan/ton. There was little change, and the overall structure presented a Contango structure [21].