交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为19138吨，环比减少4.21%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93640吨，环比减少1.51%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为17617吨，环比增加1.86%。 供给端，2025年7月碳酸锂产量为81530实物吨，预测下月产量为84200实物吨，环比增加 3.27%,2025年7月碳酸锂进口量为13845实物吨，预测下月进口量为18500实物吨，环比增加 33.62%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度 环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主导局面 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年08月18日-08月22日 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周11合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为88160元/吨，周五收盘价为78960元/吨，周跌幅为10.40%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为19138吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产12179吨，环比增加 4.46%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2650吨，环比减少32.05%,低于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产2552 吨，环比减少6.92%,低于历史同期平均水平，回收产1757吨，环比增加4.65%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年7月碳酸锂需求量为96099实物吨，环比增加2.50%,预测下月需求量为102145实物 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is in a wide - range fluctuation, and the disturbances at the mining end have not been settled yet [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots from T - 1. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,580 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 457,258 lots, up 143,169 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 185,345 lots, up 22,225 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,350 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,370 yuan, down 220 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 20 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars, down 1 US dollar from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,858 yuan/ton, down 211 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, unchanged from the previous quarter and up 2.4% year - on - year; sold 412,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 12.6% from the previous quarter and down 22.3% year - on - year. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the cash cost guidance is 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3] - Pilgangoora produced 221,300 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, up 77.0% from the previous quarter; sold 216,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 72.1% from the previous quarter. The FOB cost in 2025Q2 was 619 Australian dollars/ton, down 9.6% from the previous quarter. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 820,000 - 870,000 tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the FOB cost guidance is 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 64,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 400 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 626 tons to 13,281 tons [3]. - In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. However, due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short-term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 9, and the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton needs to be monitored. In the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Therefore, short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices changed on July 9, 2025, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate in July are analyzed, including production, imports, consumption, and inventory accumulation [3]. - The short - term and long - term price trends of lithium carbonate are predicted, and attention points and potential trading opportunities are proposed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 9, 2025, are presented, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products, along with their price changes compared with the previous day [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13] 3.3 Spreads - Charts illustrate the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][37] 3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40] 4. Colored Research Team Member Introduction - The team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [43][44] 5. Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [47]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate briefly rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure again. This week, the main contract has switched to LC2509. The fundamentals show a weak supply - demand balance. The lithium ore market has stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight increase in the CIF price of spodumene concentrate and a significant decline in inventory. Although the weekly operating rate on the supply side has slightly declined, it is still at a high level. In the short term, lithium extraction from salt lakes has gradually replaced lithium extraction from mica as the main force for production growth. The demand side shows signs of weakness, with only the demand for power batteries remaining resilient, while the cathode material and terminal consumption sectors have not met expectations. Currently, the fundamentals have not substantially improved. The stabilization of ore prices provides bottom support, but the signal of upstream production cuts is unclear, and lithium prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while those with a higher risk appetite can seize the opportunities of range fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. On June 10, local time, a Zimbabwean cabinet minister said that to promote the development of local mining processing and encourage foreign companies to carry out refining operations in the country, Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. CRU Group data shows that in 2024, Zimbabwe supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the lithium sulfate it produces will still be shipped to China for processing into battery - grade materials [7]. 3.2 Cost Side - Lithium ore prices: As of June 16, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%) was 660 yuan/ton, and the CIF price was 628 (+20) US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 555 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (3.5 - 4%) was 735 yuan/ton. Except for the increase in the CIF price, other prices remained unchanged. - Lithium ore imports: In April, the monthly import volume of spodumene was 142,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.3%; the import value was 33 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 92.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. - Lithium ore inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory of lithium ore in China was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons. - Profit: As of June 13, according to Steel Union data, the average cost of lithium carbonate was 70,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 9,400 (-700) yuan/ton, still below the break - even point. Among them, the production cost of externally purchased spodumene was 60,000 (+1,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 84 (-1,200) yuan/ton. The production cost of externally purchased lepidolite was 72,000 (-2,000) yuan/ton, and the production gross profit was - 11,000 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: According to Longzhong Information, the monthly output of lithium carbonate in April was 70,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in the week of June 13 was 62.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.6%. The main import areas were still concentrated in South America. In April, Chile exported 20,200 tons to China, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 29.2%. The import value in March was 270 million US dollars [7][12]. - Demand: In the week of June 16, the capacity utilization rate of ternary materials was 48.49%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% and a year - on - year increase of 0.66%; in May, the monthly capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.78%, a year - on - year increase of 10.75% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In May, China's power battery output was 123.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% and a month - on - month increase of 4.48%; the power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, with a loading rate of 46.3%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% and a month - on - month increase of 13.1%, accounting for 17.2% of the total loading volume; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 46.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%, accounting for 81.6% of the total loading volume. From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 202,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 40% compared with the same period in June last year and a 4% increase compared with the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 58.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 4.559 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From June 1 - 8, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 166,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 5% compared with the same period in June last year and a 6% decrease compared with the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 5.373 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [7][14][15]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - Weekly inventory: As of June 13, the weekly inventory was 133,549 (+1,117) physical tons, including 57,653 (+537) physical tons in smelter inventory, 40,686 (-390) physical tons in downstream inventory, and 35,210 (+970) physical tons in other links' inventory. - Monthly inventory: In May, the monthly inventory was 97,637 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 32% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. Among them, the downstream inventory was 42,246 (+4,358) physical tons, and the smelter inventory was 55,391 (-2,923) physical tons. - Exchange inventory: After centralized cancellation and re - registration at the end of March, as of June 13, the total number of warehouse receipts reached 32,118 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 1,191 lots compared with last week [18]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - Spot - futures prices: The price of the 2507 main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded after an over - decline and then came under pressure, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. And the main contract has switched to LC2509, so the trading volume and open interest data have significantly declined. The trading volume was 945,000 lots, a decrease of 275,000 lots compared with the previous period; the open interest decreased by 70,000 lots to 147,000 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was reported at 60,500 (-250) yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) was reported at 58,900 (-250) yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with the previous trading day. - Basis analysis: The spot - futures basis of the Lc2507 contract strengthened within the week, and the spot showed a premium on Friday. On June 13, the basis was 760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan/ton. - Spot - futures structure: On June 13, the 09 - 11 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 01 spread was - 480 yuan/ton. There was little change, and the overall structure presented a Contango structure [21].