瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给稳增需求较好，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+17.16%，振幅19.75%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价130520元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，央行货币政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和 存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好 政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。基本面原料端，受碳酸锂价格持续偏强的影响，锂 矿价格逐步走高，冶炼厂在较优的利润的驱使下仍保持一定采买及囤货的意愿。供给端，锂盐厂生产意愿较积极，加 之原料较为充足，国内供给量保持稳定增长态势。需求端，下游采买情绪受碳酸锂高价影响而逐渐谨慎，采购多以刚 需，长协为主，但由于消费端新能源车、储能行业保持较旺盛的需求，碳酸锂需求情况表现较好。库存方面，产业库 存持续去化，行业预期积极。整体来看，碳酸锂基本面或处于供给稳增、需求较好的阶段。 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with futures prices showing a notable increase followed by a slight decline, while the spot market is witnessing a decrease in average prices despite improved trading activity earlier in the week [1][3][9]. Supply Summary - As of December 11, lithium carbonate production reached 21,500 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.75% [3][10]. - The production adjustment by some companies is attributed to regular procurement rhythms, while most production lines are operating at standard levels [3][10]. - The expected increase in lithium carbonate production aligns with a strengthening demand outlook, leading to a scenario where supply growth lags behind demand growth [4][10]. Demand Summary - The utilization rates for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are 75% and 56%, respectively, indicating varied demand levels [4][10]. - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in December showed a year-on-year decline of 17% and a month-on-month decline of 10% [4][11]. - The demand for ternary batteries remains strong, with an anticipated increase in production for high-end models in December [4][10]. Price Dynamics - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased to 92,220 yuan/ton, down 920 yuan/ton from the previous period, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell to 91,060 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton [3][9]. - Despite high prices suppressing immediate purchases, the market is supported by underlying demand from downstream sectors [7][12]. - The market is expected to experience a slowdown in inventory depletion due to a marginal easing of supply and demand dynamics in December [5][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with expectations of inventory accumulation by the end of December and a potential decline in demand in January due to seasonal factors [5][11]. - The overall sentiment remains cautious, with ongoing monitoring of production recovery among major manufacturers influencing market volatility [5][11].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Industry: Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Battery Materials 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The carbonate lithium market is in a high - level shock stage. At the beginning of the week, it broke through the previous high driven by funds, and on Friday, it significantly corrected due to the expectation of warrant cancellation. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and demand continues, but the fluctuation of capital sentiment intensifies price volatility. It is expected that carbonate lithium will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The carbonate lithium futures price rose 5.05% from 75,700 yuan/ton last Friday to 79,520 yuan/ton this Friday. The carbonate lithium spot price (electric carbon) increased 4.82% from 75,750 yuan/ton to 79,400 yuan/ton, and the carbonate lithium spot price (industrial carbon) rose 4.77% from 74,400 yuan/ton to 77,950 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide spot remained unchanged [4]. - **Carbonate Lithium Premium Changes**: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises for carbonate lithium has changed, with the premium of most raw materials and enterprises increasing [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The port inventory of lithium ore increased 6.06% week - on - week to 70,000 tons, and the import volume in September decreased 10% month - on - month, indicating a structural contradiction in the supply side [2]. - **Hydroxide Lithium Production**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The import freight of lithium ore was stable with a slight increase. The freight on the Nigerian route increased 7.14% week - on - week, and the import cost support was enhanced. The import volume in September decreased 10% month - on - month, reflecting tight overseas supply [2]. - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation cost of lithium ore from some African countries remained stable, while the cost from Nigeria decreased (bulk: - 7.14%, container: - 6.67%) [27]. 3.2.4 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased 1,987 week - on - week from 30,686 to 28,699 [40]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan/ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan/ton, and the cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2]. 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals 3.3.1 Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.2 Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.3 Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.4 Import and Export - **Lithium - Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.6 Lithium - Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.7 New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate supply in China is expected to increase slightly, with downstream demand boosted by the traditional consumption season, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -149,638 lots, up 8,581 lots; the position of the main contract was 229,022 lots, down 2,942 lots; the spread between near and far-month contracts was 140 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GME was 41,709 lots, up 590 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 869 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 7,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,846.92 tons, up 8,001.60 tons; the monthly export volume was 368.91 tons, up 2.56 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 46%, down 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 139,600 MWh, up 5,800 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 63,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 280,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 123,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single-crystal type) in China was 131,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 0%, down 55 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 0%, down 57 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,391,000 units, up 148,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,395,000 units, up 133,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 45.53%, up 0.54 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 9,620,000 units, up 2,583,000 units; the monthly export volume was 224,000 units, down 1,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1,532,000 units, up 714,000 units; the 20-day average volatility of the underlying was 23.71%, down 0.2 percentage points; the 40-day average volatility was 41.01%, down 0.44 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position was 240,851 contracts, up 7,766 contracts; the total put position was 105,724 contracts, up 1,836 contracts; the put-to-call ratio of total positions was 43.9%, down 0.6748 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money IV was 0.48%, down 0.0074 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 13%/6% respectively, with an average export price of 8,704 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 15%/2% respectively; the volume exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14%), the volume exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the volume exported to Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons), of which the volume exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the volume exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and the volume exported to Korea was 29,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 76% [2]. - Multiple new energy vehicle manufacturers announced their September delivery data. BYD's new energy vehicle sales in September were 396,300 units, compared with 419,400 units in the same period last year; XPeng Motors delivered 41,581 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 95% and a month-on-month increase of 10%, with the monthly delivery volume exceeding 40,000 units, setting a new historical high; Leapmotor's total delivery reached a new high of 66,657 units, a year-on-year increase of over 97%, and the monthly sales volume exceeded 60,000 units for the first time; Li Auto delivered 33,951 new cars; Voyah delivered 15,224 units; NIO delivered 34,749 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 64%; Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 40,000 units; Zeekr delivered 51,159 cars, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2]. - Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, stated that in August, the sales volume of Chinese independent automakers in some continuously - statable overseas regions was initially estimated to be 286,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month decrease of 3%; from January to August, the sales volume of Chinese self - owned brands in the overseas market was 2.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and the retail performance of Chinese self - owned brands in some statable overseas markets was good [2]. - Data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in September, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been operating in the range of 49% - 50% for 7 consecutive months. In the third quarter, the average value of the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter. The global economic recovery trend was relatively stable. Regionally, Asian manufacturing continued to maintain stable expansion [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly this week, with a decline of 4.17% and an amplitude of 10.75%. The closing price of the main contract was 71,160 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of fundamentals, the spot price of lithium carbonate has weakened recently, pulling down the lithium ore quotation. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, while domestic smelters are actively inquiring but the overall trading volume is light [5]. - The domestic supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase steadily and slightly, as smelters maintain a stable and slightly increasing production rhythm, and inventories are declining [5]. - During the traditional consumption peak season, downstream material manufacturers have good production schedules and new orders, with certain rigid - demand purchasing needs. The downstream inventory is increasing, and the market trading sentiment has improved [5]. - Overall, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are in a stage of stable and slightly increasing supply and gradually improving demand. The total industrial inventory has decreased slightly, and the consumption outlook is positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly on the weekly line, with a decline of 4.17% and an amplitude of 10.75%. The closing price of the main contract was 71,160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year due to a higher base and weak food prices. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium carbonate has weakened, pulling down the lithium ore quotation. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell, and domestic smelter transactions are light. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is improving [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate was 71,160 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 440 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 1,290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 800 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 886 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1235, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23% [21]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of amblygonite was 6,845 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. As of August 2025, the monthly output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, an increase of 2.87% and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Hexafluorophosphoric Lithium**: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16% [35]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of 811, 622, and 523 types continued to weaken. As of July 2025, the monthly output was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [42]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decrease of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21% [47]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price remained flat week - on - week. As of July 2025, the monthly output was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14% [50]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly production was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%, and the monthly sales were 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.04, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option strategy to bet on increased volatility [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate main contract has experienced significant fluctuations due to frequent disturbances on the supply side and needs time for digestion and consolidation in the short term. If the supply - side disturbance expectations remain unchanged, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in September, and prices may rise irrationally. Attention should be paid to whether the other 7 mining enterprises in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [4]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate may weaken next week, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. August Market Review - In August, the lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with the futures price breaking through 90,000 yuan/ton at its highest. Supply - side news had many disturbances, but the actual impact on the fundamentals was small, and price fluctuations were mainly due to futures market capital games [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - In August, despite supply - side disturbances, the monthly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high due to the increase in capacity utilization and hedging by external - purchasing enterprises. As of August 29, the weekly output decreased to 19,000 tons, with different trends in production from different sources. The import volume has declined for three consecutive months but is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential production halt of 7 mining enterprises in Yichun after September 30 [6][7]. Demand - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 311,400 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 3% to 70,800 tons. In the power market in July, new energy vehicle production and sales showed seasonal slowdown, and the power battery loading volume decreased. In the energy storage market, demand orders are good, with saturated production schedules in September and October, and high - price transactions for forward orders. The industry's anti - low - price initiative is expected to improve profitability [8][9]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, domestic inventory decreased slightly, with social inventory still exceeding 140,000 tons. Inventory is flowing from processing plants to downstream sectors, and warehouse receipts are rising after centralized cancellations [10]. 3. Technical Analysis - The 2 - hour cycle Band Winner indicator of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, indicating that the contract may weaken in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle long - short dividing water level overnight is 80,960 yuan/ton [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77360 - 80700 [9]. - In the next month, supply is expected to increase, while demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 78,520 yuan/ton, a 0.37% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,021 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, a 0.70% daily decrease, with a production loss of 2,848 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production profits and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other aspects**: On August 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [9]. - **Likely positive factors**: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: High - level supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery side to take delivery [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.54% to 920 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and other products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% month - on - month increase; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% month - on - month increase [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand - side data mainly includes the production, sales, and inventory data of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and other downstream products. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% month - on - month decrease; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a 5.04% month - on - month decrease [17][18]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,543 tons, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Among them, smelter inventory decreased by 5.72% to 46,846 tons, lower than the historical average; downstream inventory increased by 6.68% to 51,507 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventory decreased by 2.46% to 43,190 tons, higher than the historical average [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend. Next week, the supply side's production scheduling is expected to decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [4][7][76] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate was in a downward trend this week. The opening price on Monday was 88,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 78,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 10.40% [4] - **Supply Side**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,179 tons, a 4.46% increase month - on - month; lithium mica production was 2,650 tons, a 32.05% decrease month - on - month; salt lake production was 2,552 tons, a 6.92% decrease month - on - month; recycling production was 1,757 tons, a 4.65% increase month - on - month [4] - **Demand Side**: In July 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 96,099 physical tons, a 2.50% increase month - on - month. The predicted demand for next month is 102,145 physical tons, a 6.29% increase month - on - month. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate was 366 physical tons, a 14.88% decrease month - on - month, and the predicted export volume for next month is 607 physical tons, a 65.85% increase month - on - month [5] - **Cost Side**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,526 yuan/ton, a 1.07% daily decrease, with a production profit of 3,193 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 4,269 yuan/ton; the recycling production cost is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6] - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory is 46,846 tons, a 5.72% decrease month - on - month; the downstream inventory is 51,507 tons, a 6.68% increase month - on - month; other inventories are 43,190 tons, a 2.46% decrease month - on - month; the total inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease month - on - month [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The report presents historical price trends of lithium ore, as well as production data of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China from 2019 - 2025 [14] - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: It shows the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate from Australia and other countries from 2019 - 2025, as well as the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore [14] - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance table of domestic lithium ore from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [17] 3.2.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: It shows the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume data of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) from 2018 - 2025 [20] - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [26] 3.2.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide from 2022 - 2025, as well as monthly production, capacity, and export volume data from different sources (causticization, smelting) from 2018 - 2025 [29] - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [31] 3.2.4 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - It presents the cost - profit data of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost - profit data of lithium hydroxide processing and export from 2022 - 2025 [34][36][39] 3.2.5 Inventory - It shows the historical data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventory (including smelter, downstream, and total inventory) from 2018 - 2025 [41] 3.2.6 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: It shows the price trends of different types of batteries, monthly production of battery cells, monthly loading volume of power batteries, and export volume of lithium batteries from 2019 - 2025 [45] - **Inventory and Tendering**: It shows the inventory data of lithium battery cells and the tendering data of energy storage projects from 2023 - 2025 [47] 3.2.7 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: It shows the price trends, cost - profit data, processing fees, capacity utilization rates, and monthly production data of ternary precursors from 2018 - 2025 [50] - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors from July 2024 to July 2025 is provided, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [53] 3.2.8 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: It shows the price trends, cost - profit data, processing fees, weekly operating rates, and monthly production data of ternary materials from 2018 - 2025 [56] - **Import, Export, and Inventory**: It shows the import, export, and weekly inventory data of ternary materials from 2019 - 2025 [58] 3.2.9 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: It shows the price trends, production costs, cost - profit data, monthly operating rates, and monthly production data of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium from 2016 - 2025 [60] - **Export and Inventory**: It shows the monthly export volume and weekly inventory data of iron phosphate lithium from 2019 - 2025 [63] 3.2.10 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: It shows the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - to - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory data of new energy vehicles from 2019 - 2025 [68] 3.3 Technical Analysis - The report provides the price and trading volume trends of the LC main contract from July 23 to August 22, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving average data [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is in a wide - range fluctuation, and the disturbances at the mining end have not been settled yet [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots from T - 1. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,580 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 457,258 lots, up 143,169 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 185,345 lots, up 22,225 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,350 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,370 yuan, down 220 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 20 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars, down 1 US dollar from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,858 yuan/ton, down 211 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, unchanged from the previous quarter and up 2.4% year - on - year; sold 412,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 12.6% from the previous quarter and down 22.3% year - on - year. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the cash cost guidance is 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3] - Pilgangoora produced 221,300 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, up 77.0% from the previous quarter; sold 216,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 72.1% from the previous quarter. The FOB cost in 2025Q2 was 619 Australian dollars/ton, down 9.6% from the previous quarter. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 820,000 - 870,000 tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the FOB cost guidance is 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 64,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 400 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 626 tons to 13,281 tons [3]. - In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. However, due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short-term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 9, and the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton needs to be monitored. In the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Therefore, short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices changed on July 9, 2025, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate in July are analyzed, including production, imports, consumption, and inventory accumulation [3]. - The short - term and long - term price trends of lithium carbonate are predicted, and attention points and potential trading opportunities are proposed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 9, 2025, are presented, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products, along with their price changes compared with the previous day [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13] 3.3 Spreads - Charts illustrate the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][37] 3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40] 4. Colored Research Team Member Introduction - The team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [43][44] 5. Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [47]