交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.51 | 港元 | 9.30↑ | -11.6% | | | 石药集团 (1093 HK) | | | | | | | 2Q25 仍承压但业绩拐点将至，研发、BD 稳步推进，上调目标价 公司的存量大单品在 2Q25 继续受到集采、院端医保控费等压力，但我们看好 2H25 及 2026-27 年业绩复苏的机会，考虑到上述影响即将出清、重磅 BD 首 付款对业绩的增厚、以及原料药/功能食品业务的反弹。我们上调目标价，当 前公司估值合理，正向催化剂预期和风险已基本反映在股价中，维持中性。 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1093 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 10.96 | | --- | --- | | 52 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.63 HKD, based on a current price of 10.36 HKD [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading innovative pharmaceutical enterprise in China, with a strong focus on research and development, and a robust commercialization capability [14][19]. - The recent performance has been impacted by price adjustments and centralized procurement policies, but new licensing revenues and additional product launches are expected to drive growth [19][20]. - The company has established eight major technology platforms, showcasing its research capabilities and potential for future growth through international licensing agreements [4][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company integrates research, production, and sales, focusing on innovative drugs as its core strategy, supported by a large international R&D team and a comprehensive marketing network [14][15]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 70.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.9%, with a net profit of 14.95 billion CNY, down 8.3% [20][22]. - The traditional pharmaceutical business, which contributes approximately 80% of total sales, has faced pressure due to centralized procurement and price adjustments [19][22]. Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company has a diverse pipeline with over 200 innovative drugs and formulations, including 10 ADC products in clinical stages, highlighting its strong R&D capabilities [33][39]. - Key products like SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) have entered critical clinical phases, with significant potential for licensing and market impact [2][45]. Market Expansion and Licensing - The company has successfully executed multiple international licensing agreements, enhancing its global presence and generating substantial licensing revenue [35][36]. - Recent collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies, such as AstraZeneca, indicate a growing recognition of the company's innovative capabilities [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price raised to HKD 7.40 from HKD 6.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.01 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 8.4% to RMB 1.48 billion. Excluding RMB 718 million in licensing fee income, product sales revenue was approximately 4.6% lower than expected, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of established drugs [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in product sales revenue starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement for certain oncology drugs has already been reflected, and sales are expected to increase after the inclusion of new drugs in the medical insurance list by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve multiple significant overseas licensing agreements, with Q1 licensing fee income of RMB 718 million primarily from agreements with BeiGene and AstraZeneca. These agreements involve upfront payments totaling USD 250 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion) and potential milestone payments of up to USD 3.56 billion (approximately RMB 25.6 billion) [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 29.89 billion, reflecting a 3.0% growth rate, while net profit is expected to be RMB 4.77 billion, a 10.2% increase. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 0.41, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4 [5][13]. - The financial data indicates a decline in established drug sales, with revenue from the core product Enbrel decreasing by 29.5% year-on-year, and oncology drug sales dropping by 65.7% due to centralized procurement impacts [1][5]. - The report includes a detailed financial forecast, showing total revenue growth rates of 1.7% in 2023, a decline of 7.8% in 2024, and subsequent growth rates of 3.0%, 12.8%, and 12.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded on June 3, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.5% to close at 23,512 and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,189, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 203.7 billion, showing a notable increase compared to previous days, although the net inflow from the Stock Connect was only HKD 3.9 billion [1] - Major financial stocks, including CITIC Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, hit historical highs, reflecting continued investment in high-dividend defensive assets [1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector saw a rebound, with Xiaomi's automotive business losses decreasing and expectations for profitability in Q3 or Q4 of this year, driven by the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [3] - The healthcare sector also performed well, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.5%. Notable gains were seen in companies reporting positive clinical data at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) [3] - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced widespread gains, with Goldwind Technology rising by 13.3% due to share buyback plans and the establishment of an AI-related subsidiary [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group indicated a 21.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to RMB 7.01 billion, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of its core products [5] - The company expects a gradual recovery in product sales starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement has already been reflected in Q1 results [6] - CSPC has secured multiple overseas licensing agreements, with expected upfront payments totaling approximately RMB 1 billion and potential milestone payments exceeding RMB 25.6 billion, indicating strong future revenue prospects [7][8] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report on the Chinese real estate market highlighted a 12.0% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume across 30 major cities, with first-tier cities showing resilience [9] - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reported increases in cumulative transaction volumes, with Shanghai up by 9.5% and Shenzhen by 45.8% year-on-year [10] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 46.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant pressure from centralized procurement and medical insurance cost control in Q1 2025, but is expected to see gradual improvement starting from Q2 2025, with projections of achieving three major BD licensing deals exceeding $5 billion each in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30% year-on-year, excluding BD income, with the prescription drug segment declining by 37% [1] - Key therapeutic areas experienced declines: CNS down 30% due to medical insurance cost control and a 13% price reduction from negotiations; oncology core products saw a 66% drop in sales due to centralized procurement and channel price adjustments [1] - The company recorded 720 million RMB in licensing fee income, primarily from collaborations with AstraZeneca and BeiGene [1] - Revenue from raw materials increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by demand in the VC market and rising product prices, while functional foods and other business revenues fell by 9% due to declining demand and prices for caffeine [1] - The net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 21.1% due to high-margin licensing income and cost control efforts [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and BD Transactions - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance starting Q2 2025, driven by increased promotion of Enbip, stabilization from procurement and inventory adjustments, rapid market entry of new products, and additional BD income recognition [2] - Management expects to achieve three large overseas licensing deals in 2025, each exceeding $5 billion, including a comprehensive technology platform licensing deal [2] - The company is advancing a Phase III study for EGFR ADC in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC in China and has initiated studies for third-line EGFR classic mutation NSCLC overseas, with further discussions with the FDA planned for June [2] - Based on optimistic BD income and operating expense forecasts, the company has raised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 by 1.5-7.5% and net profit forecasts by 8-13% [2] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to 7.2 HKD, corresponding to a 14.7x P/E ratio and 1.1x PEG for 2025, indicating that the current stock price reflects the anticipated pressure on 2025 performance and future BD transactions, with limited upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the robust growth in the neurological field driven by the products Enbip and Mingful, highlighting their market strategies and new indications that are expected to contribute to revenue growth [1][2]. Group 1: Product Innovations and Market Strategies - Enbip and Mingful are being promoted through hospital channels and retail pharmacies to enhance patient education and accessibility for stroke patients [1]. - Mingful received approval for a new indication for thrombolytic treatment in acute ischemic stroke patients, which is anticipated to drive significant growth [1][2]. - The company has launched multiple innovative products across various therapeutic areas, including oncology and neurology, contributing to long-term growth [6][7]. Group 2: Clinical Development and Pipeline Progress - The company has initiated key clinical trials for SYS6010, a novel EGFR ADC, which has shown promising efficacy in overcoming TKI resistance in NSCLC patients [2][40]. - SYS6010 demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 39.2% in EGFR-mutant non-squamous NSCLC patients, indicating its potential as a new treatment option [40][38]. - The company has multiple ADC products in various clinical stages, including JSKN003 and DP303c, which are also showing positive results in clinical trials [44][52]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth Projections - The company reported a revenue of 29.009 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.328 billion yuan, down 26.3% [14]. - Despite some revenue pressures from price reductions due to centralized procurement, the introduction of new products is expected to provide incremental revenue growth [14][15]. - The company has a strong pipeline with over 200 innovative drugs in development, indicating a robust future growth trajectory [25][28]. Group 4: Research and Development Platforms - The company has established eight major R&D platforms focusing on various innovative drug development areas, including mRNA and siRNA technologies [18][21]. - Recent collaborations and licensing agreements for several innovative products are expected to enhance revenue streams and support future growth [21][22]. - The company is actively exploring gene therapy and cell therapy, positioning itself at the forefront of innovative treatment options [18][21].