招商证券国际下调集团2025至2026年销售及净利润预测，因公司核心业务表现乏力及BD预期过高，评 级下调至"中性"，目标价由12.9港元下调至9.3港元。该行表示，展望未来，石药集团的前景取决于商业 合作战略及后期管线商业化情况。市场关注其关键资产SYS6010。然而，回顾石药过去在1.1类创新药 物研发的表现，该行认为其在管线临床进展上落后于中国其他大型制药及部分生物药公司。 消息面上，石药集团此前发布中期业绩，上半年收入总额132.73亿元人民币，同比减少18.5%；公司拥 有人应占溢利25.48亿元，同比减少15.64%。招商证券国际发布研报称，石药集团今年二季度收入及净 利润均不及预期，反映肿瘤和神经系统业务线的结构性下行，管理层重申EGFR ADC产品为潜在商业发 展(BD)催化剂，但该行认为市场已消化相关预期。 石药集团(01093)尾盘跌超7%，截至发稿，跌6.45%，报9.7港元，成交额22.13亿港元。 ...

招商证券国际下调集团2025至2026年销售及净利润预测，因公司核心业务表现乏力及BD预期过高，评 级下调至"中性"，目标价由12.9港元下调至9.3港元。该行表示，展望未来，石药集团的前景取决于商业 合作战略及后期管线商业化情况。市场关注其关键资产SYS6010。然而，回顾石药过去在1.1类创新药 物研发的表现，该行认为其在管线临床进展上落后于中国其他大型制药及部分生物药公司。 智通财经APP获悉，石药集团(01093)尾盘跌超7%，截至发稿，跌6.45%，报9.7港元，成交额22.13亿港 元。 消息面上，石药集团此前发布中期业绩，上半年收入总额132.73亿元人民币，同比减少18.5%；公司拥 有人应占溢利25.48亿元，同比减少15.64%。招商证券国际发布研报称，石药集团今年二季度收入及净 利润均不及预期，反映肿瘤和神经系统业务线的结构性下行，管理层重申EGFR ADC产品为潜在商业发 展(BD)催化剂，但该行认为市场已消化相关预期。 ...

记者丨韩璐 斩获多张出海大单，石家庄医药巨头飙升。 8月22日，蔡东晨实控的石药集团收报10.51港元，市值超1200亿港元，较年初增长超过600亿港元。 股价飙升，公司却处于新老交替的转型期。1-6月，营收132.73亿元，净利润25.48亿元，均同比下滑一成多。 | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | 2024年 | 變動 | | 按 業 務 劃 分 之 收 入 : | | | | | 成 ূ | 10,247,652 | 13.549.079 | -24.4% | | 原料產品 | 2,074,708 | 1.854.794 | +11.9% | | 功能食品及其它 | 951,056 | 880.409 | +8.0% | | 收入總額 | 13,273,416 | 16,284,282 | -18.5% | | 本公司股東應佔溢利 | | | | | 呈 救 | 2,547,851 | 3.020.374 | -15.6% | | 基本(附註) | 2,319,521 | 3,216,870 | -27.9% | 受集采 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into a global exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for SYH2086, which includes development, production, and commercialization rights, while retaining rights to develop and sell other oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonists in China [4][5]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement and Financials - The agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals could yield up to $2.075 billion, including an upfront payment of $120 million and milestone payments based on development, regulatory, and commercial achievements [4]. - The company anticipates potential upfront and milestone payments from ongoing negotiations for three other projects, including SYS6010 (EGFR-ADC), totaling approximately $5 billion [5]. Group 2: Research and Development - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with expenses projected to reach 5.191 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 7.5%, representing 21.9% of the revenue from prescription drugs, which is above industry standards [6]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company has 24 projects in critical II/III clinical phases and 9 projects under review for market approval [6][7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Healthcare Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **China Healthcare** sector, particularly the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, highlighting the attractive investment landscape in the Asia Pacific region [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Projections**: The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at a **CAGR of 5.7%** from 2023 to 2028, while the Chinese pharmaceutical market is projected to grow at a **CAGR of 7.7%** during the same period [9][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Chinese pharmaceutical market is characterized by a significant reliance on imported products, particularly in the albumin segment, where **60-70%** of the market is composed of imports [34]. - **Out-licensing Trends**: There has been a notable increase in out-licensing activities, with over **$50 billion** in deals recorded in 2024, driven by narrowing innovation gaps and emerging complex modalities [41][42]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The plasma industry in China faces high entry barriers, with only **<30 plasma fractionators** currently operating, leading to a market consolidation trend [33][34]. Important Developments - **Upcoming Events**: Key sector events include the **CSCO 2025** and **WCLC 2025** conferences, which are expected to influence stock performance in the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors [6][8]. - **Pipeline Assets**: Several companies, including Hengrui and CSPC, have significant pipeline assets with upcoming drug approvals and trial progress expected in **2H25** [32][27]. Potential Risks and Challenges - **Supply Constraints**: The Chinese plasma market is underdeveloped compared to global standards, with a limited variety of plasma derivatives available [34]. - **Market Competition**: The top five plasma companies dominate approximately **60%** of the market, indicating a highly consolidated competitive landscape [33]. Additional Insights - **Investment Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards the China healthcare sector remains positive, with analysts highlighting the potential for significant returns driven by innovation and market expansion [2][41]. - **Technological Advancements**: The introduction of recombinant human albumin (rHSA) is expected to disrupt the albumin market, potentially capturing **~10%** of the total market share [35]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare sector.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.63 HKD, based on a current price of 10.36 HKD [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading innovative pharmaceutical enterprise in China, with a strong focus on research and development, and a robust commercialization capability [14][19]. - The recent performance has been impacted by price adjustments and centralized procurement policies, but new licensing revenues and additional product launches are expected to drive growth [19][20]. - The company has established eight major technology platforms, showcasing its research capabilities and potential for future growth through international licensing agreements [4][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company integrates research, production, and sales, focusing on innovative drugs as its core strategy, supported by a large international R&D team and a comprehensive marketing network [14][15]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 70.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.9%, with a net profit of 14.95 billion CNY, down 8.3% [20][22]. - The traditional pharmaceutical business, which contributes approximately 80% of total sales, has faced pressure due to centralized procurement and price adjustments [19][22]. Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company has a diverse pipeline with over 200 innovative drugs and formulations, including 10 ADC products in clinical stages, highlighting its strong R&D capabilities [33][39]. - Key products like SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) have entered critical clinical phases, with significant potential for licensing and market impact [2][45]. Market Expansion and Licensing - The company has successfully executed multiple international licensing agreements, enhancing its global presence and generating substantial licensing revenue [35][36]. - Recent collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies, such as AstraZeneca, indicate a growing recognition of the company's innovative capabilities [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, emphasizing the transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China" for innovative drugs [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic innovative drugs are gaining global competitiveness and are currently in the first and second stages of international expansion, primarily through licensing agreements and partnerships [10][12]. - The report identifies key areas of focus for investment, including PD-(L)1 plus, ADCs, and GLP-1 drugs, which are expected to drive future growth and business development (BD) opportunities [10][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Transition from "Manufacturing" to "Innovation" - The policy reforms initiated in 2015 have stimulated a shift from generic to innovative drug development in China, with significant increases in R&D investment since 2018 [19][21]. - The number of First-in-Class (FIC) drugs developed in China has risen from 9 in 2015 to 120 in 2024, indicating a substantial increase in innovation [25][26]. Section 2: Continued BD Opportunities - PD-(L)1 plus is identified as a cornerstone for next-generation cancer treatments, with significant demand and potential for new products [51]. - The report notes that ADCs are transitioning towards more differentiated targets, focusing on unmet clinical needs, with promising candidates like PD-L1, DLL3, and EGFR [51]. - The GLP-1 market is experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on multi-target, oral, combination, and long-acting formulations [51]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - For PD-(L)1 plus, companies such as Kangfang Biotech, Shansheng Pharmaceutical, and Junshi Biosciences are recommended for investment due to their strong pipelines [5]. - In the ADC space, companies like Fuhong Hanlin and Zai Lab are highlighted for their potential in addressing unmet clinical needs [5]. - In the GLP-1 sector, firms such as Borui Pharmaceutical and Zai Lab are noted for their promising developments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a significant licensing agreement between the company and Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for the oral GLP-1 receptor agonist SYH2086 marks a major breakthrough for Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the global obesity and diabetes treatment market [2][3]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement Details - The total value of the agreement can reach up to $20.75 billion, including an upfront payment of $120 million and up to $19.55 billion in milestone payments based on development, regulatory, and commercialization progress [3][5]. - The company retains rights to develop and sell other oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist products in China while granting exclusive global rights to Madrigal for SYH2086 [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Potential - SYH2086 is currently in the preclinical stage and is designed to promote insulin secretion and inhibit glucagon release, aiming for both glucose-lowering and weight-loss effects [3][8]. - Preclinical data indicates that SYH2086 exhibits excellent in vitro activity and effective glucose-lowering and weight-loss results across different animal species, with no significant safety risks [8]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The collaboration with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, which specializes in metabolic disorders, is expected to accelerate the clinical development of SYH2086 in the U.S. market, providing crucial support for the company's entry into the global obesity and diabetes markets [8]. - This transaction is seen as an additional increment beyond the previously indicated $50 billion licensing deals, further highlighting the value of the company's small molecule platform [9].

Market Overview - On June 19, the Hang Seng Index fell by 473 points or 2.0%, closing at 23,237, marking a new low since June 2[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.4%, closing at 5,088, the lowest since April 30[1] - The total market turnover was over HKD 220.1 billion, indicating that selling pressure was not excessively high[1] - Despite the decline, the Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 1.43 billion[1] Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the June FOMC meeting, emphasizing inflation control as a priority[2] - Economic forecasts indicate concerns over stagflation, with GDP growth predictions lowered and inflation and unemployment rates raised[2] - The divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts has increased, with the number of officials opposing cuts rising from 4 to 7[2] Industry Developments - Black Sesame Technologies (2533 HK) announced plans to acquire an AI chip company, which could enhance its product line for smart vehicles[3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.2%, with Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) experiencing a smaller decline due to positive clinical data for its drug candidate[4] Company Highlights - Cao Cao Travel (2643 HK) reported a GTV of RMB 17 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with a market share of 5.4%[5] - The company aims to expand its fleet to over 34,000 customized vehicles by 2024, with customized vehicles accounting for approximately 25.1% of GTV[5] - Cao Cao's AI-driven system, "Cao Cao Brain," is designed to optimize order matching and reduce idle mileage, contributing to GTV growth[6] Financial Projections - Stone Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) signed a strategic agreement with AstraZeneca, receiving an upfront payment of USD 110 million (approximately RMB 790 million) and potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 1.62 billion[8] - Revenue forecasts for Stone Pharmaceutical for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively, reflecting the anticipated income from the AstraZeneca agreement[9] - The target price for Stone Pharmaceutical has been raised to HKD 8.15, maintaining a "neutral" rating[11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable growth in the oil and petrochemical sector, while the beauty care and media sectors experienced significant declines [2][3][4] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the recent U.S.-China dialogue, which aims to enhance cooperation and stabilize trade relations [6][8] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in Guangzhou, where restrictions have been lifted to stimulate housing demand [22][24] Industry Analysis Real Estate and Construction - New housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have increased month-on-month, with Guangzhou fully lifting purchase and sale restrictions [22][23] - The government is expected to maintain a supportive stance towards the real estate market, with more positive fiscal and monetary policies anticipated [22][24] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The CPI has been declining for four consecutive months, impacting pork prices, which are expected to stabilize despite short-term pressures [28][29] - The report suggests that policies will be implemented to control pork supply and support price increases, which may affect the overall CPI [29][30] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline, with a focus on new product launches such as whiskey and the growth potential of konjac products [37][38] - The konjac segment is identified as a rapidly growing niche within the snack food market, driven by health trends [38][39] Pharmaceuticals - SYS6010 is highlighted as a promising broad-spectrum anti-tumor drug, with early clinical data showing positive results for NSCLC treatment [41][42] - The drug is in the registration phase for NSCLC in China and has received multiple designations from regulatory bodies, indicating its potential in the market [42][43] Communication and Technology - The report discusses advancements in AI and cloud computing, with significant investments from companies like Oracle and ByteDance, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AIDC industry [46][47][49] - The domestic AI industry is expected to benefit from increased demand and technological advancements, with several companies positioned to capitalize on these trends [49]