环球市场动态 内 地 外 贸 生 产 景 气 6 月 后 半 月 边 际 放 缓 股 票 周二 A 股分歧走势，芯片、军工活 跃；港股周二休市，周一三大指数 略显疲软收于全日低点；欧洲股市 普跌，特朗普拒绝推迟 7 月 9 日关 税谈判截止日；美股标指从记录高 点回落，科技股遭遇资金流出，纳 指表现疲软，小盘股、银行股上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国劳动力市场仍稳定，市场仍关 注中东局势发展，周二国际油价个 别发展；投资者评估特朗普税改法 案的影响，周二美元指数微升；日 央行行长暗示暂不加息，日元领涨 G-10 货币；欧元兑美元创下逾二十 年来最长连涨；国际金价上扬，伦 铜升至三个月高点。 固 定 收 益 周二美国国债下跌，收益率曲线趋 平。职位空缺等经济数据强劲，削 弱降息预期。美联储主席鲍威尔的 讲话保留货币政策灵活性。亚洲市 场整体交投清淡。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 欧 美 市 场 欧美主要指数 主要指数 指数 收盘点位 1日涨跌 (%) 道琼斯 44,494.9 0.9 标普 500 6,198.0 (0.1) 纳 ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 星期五 每日大市点评 6 月 19 日，港股大盘调整压力加剧，恒生指数全日低开低收，最终下跌 473 点或 2.0%，收报 23,237 点，为 6 月 2 日以来 收市新低。恒生科指下跌 2.4%，收报 5,088 点，创 4 月 30 日以来收市新低。市场风险偏好明显走低，以高分红央国企为 主的恒生香港中资企业指数也下跌 2.0%。不过，大市成交金额 2,201 多亿港元，抛售压力尚不算太大，港股通也净流入 14.3 亿港元。盘面上，港股避险情绪升温，下跌股份超过 1,200 只，12 大恒生综合行业分类指数全线下跌。个股方面， 新消费"股份全线走弱，如毛戈平(1318 HK)、蜜雪(2097 HK)、泡泡玛特(9992 HK)、老铺黄金(6181 HK)分别下跌 3.6% 至 6.0%不等，其中蜜雪股价已创超过一个月低位。随着相关股份估值大幅透支增长前景，机构抱团开始瓦解，造成股价 大幅波动，我们对相关股份保持谨慎。短期中东地缘紧张局势影响市场的风险偏好，前期估值大幅修复的港股出现调整 也并不意外，高 BETA 的恒生科指于 6 月初时已跟恒生指数出现背离也埋下伏线。 宏 ...

昨日涨跌幅后五行业 2025 年 06 月 16 日 开源晨会 0616 | | | | ——晨会纪要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | 沪深300 | 创业板指 | | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | 48% | | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 32% | | | 观点精粹 | | 16% | | | | | 0% | | | 总量视角 | | -16% | | | 【宏观经济】中美就落实日内瓦会谈共识达成框架——宏观周报-20250615 | | -32% | | | 【宏观经济】政府债券发行支撑社融——宏观经济点评-20250615 | | 2024-06 | 2024-10 2025-02 | | 【策略】关于港股和消费的两大核心问题——投资策略周报-20250615 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | | | | | | 行业公司 | | 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | | | 【地产建筑】新房二手房成交面积环比增长，广州全面取消限购限售——行业周 | | 行业名称 | | ...

医药生物 2025 年 06 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关注 Protac 自免赛道积极进展—行 业周报》-2025.6.8 《重视Pharma估值重塑的机会—行业 周报》-2025.6.2 《经营拐点显现，动保业务有望贡献 较大业绩弹性，推荐国邦医药—行业 周报》-2025.5.25 SYS6010:广谱抗肿瘤大品种，早期 NSCLC 数据优异 ——行业周报 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 聂媛媛（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | nieyuanyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790525010002 | 证书编号：S0790124050002 | SYS6010（EGFR ADC）：广谱抗肿瘤大品种，早期 NSCLC 数据优异 截至 2025 年 6 月，全 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Research upgraded the rating of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the target price from HKD 4.7 to HKD 9.5, indicating a potential upside of 21% based on a discounted cash flow valuation method [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of this year, CSPC's revenue and net profit decreased by 22% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [1] - However, product sales and profit showed a quarterly increase of 12% and 60%, indicating a gradual recovery from centralized procurement pressures [1] Innovation and Business Development - HSBC is optimistic about CSPC's innovative drugs due to the following reasons: 1. CSPC announced on May 30 that it is advancing three potential licensing deals, suggesting stronger and faster business expansion than previously expected [1] 2. Robust data for SYS6010 [1]

以下文章来源于氨基观察 ，作者氨基君 氨基观察 . 生命科学新时代的商业智库和价值灯塔 作者 | 武月 来源 | 氨基观察 每笔交易的潜在首付款、里程碑付款以及商业化分成约为50亿美元。且其中之一已经处于后期阶 段，预计将于6月份完成。 如此重磅BD消息，石药集团的股价自然应声大涨，市值再次逼近千亿大关。 事实上，在其正式公告之前，市场上已经有相关消息流传。因为石药集团于29日中午交出一份不 及预期的一季报，营收、利润双下滑，而在财报电话会议上，公司管理层已经披露了上述BD消 息，这也使得其股价在业绩发布之后，逆势大涨12%。 尽管石药集团在公告中多次提示BD的不确定性，但市场更多是沉浸于巨大的金额层面。3项50亿 美元的交易，言下之意，潜在交易总额达150亿美元。即使首付款按照5%计算，也高达7.5亿美 元。 乐观者认为，这是石药再次秀出创新肌肉，石药集团不断增长的研发，并没有带来创新药的估值 溢价。随着新的重磅BD的达成，其业绩会有新的保障；谨慎者则认为，潜在大BD确实能驱动股 价大涨，但重磅BD属于重大商业机密，也是涉及股价的敏感信息，在BD落地前就提前公告，是 否有些突兀？ 至少，在全球医药产业中，预 ...

Core Insights - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) acquired BioNTech's PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody BNT327 for $9 billion, highlighting the increasing interest in Chinese biotech firms and their innovative drug pipelines [1][2] - The rapid financial success of BioNTech, which earned over $8 billion from the initial $55 million licensing deal with Chinese firm Pumice Biologics, raises questions about the pricing strategies of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the global market [1][2][3] - The trend of multinational corporations (MNCs) aggressively acquiring Chinese dual antibodies is reshaping the global landscape of innovative drugs, with significant deals such as the $6.05 billion agreement between 3SBio and Pfizer [1][4] Group 1: Major Transactions - BMS's deal with BioNTech includes a $1.5 billion upfront payment, a record for oncology licensing agreements, along with additional milestone payments totaling $76 billion [2] - 3SBio's licensing of its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707 to Pfizer for $6.05 billion, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, sets a new record for domestic innovative drug licensing [4][5] - Other notable transactions include Merck's $3.3 billion investment in LianBio and the anticipated $5 billion deal involving Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in MNCs acquiring Chinese dual antibodies is driven by the expiration of patents for existing blockbuster drugs and the need for new products [6][7] - Chinese innovative drug companies benefit from lower development costs and a large patient pool, making them attractive targets for MNCs seeking to enhance their product pipelines [6][7] - The total value of outbound licensing deals for Chinese innovative drugs reached $45.5 billion since early 2025, with 42% of high-value projects coming from China [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing trend of MNCs partnering with Chinese biotech firms is expected to bolster the confidence of domestic companies in pursuing research and development [7][8] - The ability of Chinese innovative drug companies to negotiate higher prices in licensing deals will depend on their negotiation skills and market positioning [8] - The need for a "pricing power revolution" in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is emphasized, as companies face challenges from rising R&D costs and stringent domestic pricing policies [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses significant licensing agreements in the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the collaboration between Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) and BioNTech for the development of BNT327, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-L1 and VEGF-A, with a total potential payment of up to $11.1 billion [1][2][6]. Group 1: Licensing Agreements - BMS will pay BioNTech an upfront fee of $1.5 billion and up to $2 billion in annual payments before 2028, along with milestone payments that could total $7.6 billion [1][2]. - The agreement allows for shared global profits and losses between BMS and BioNTech, marking a shift from traditional licensing models [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The PD-(L)1 market is projected to reach $52.5 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2021 to 2024, and the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibodies are expected to become a cornerstone in a market potentially exceeding $100 billion by 2028 [3][4]. - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is also growing rapidly, with a projected size of $14.5 billion by 2024 and a CAGR of 40% from 2021 to 2024 [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The article highlights a trend where multinational corporations are increasingly partnering with Chinese biotech firms to enhance their pipelines, driven by the need to overcome patent cliffs and the high cost of drug development in the U.S. [6][7]. - Chinese innovative drug companies are becoming more competitive, with significant increases in business development (BD) transactions, from $9.2 billion in 2020 to an expected $52.3 billion in 2024 [7][8]. Group 4: Clinical Development and Future Prospects - BioNTech's BNT327 has shown promising clinical trial results for treating locally advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, indicating its potential in a high-demand therapeutic area [2][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of clinical trial execution quality and innovative drug characteristics in negotiating favorable terms in BD transactions [8][10].

机构：招银国际 研究员：Jill WU/Andy WANG Business sequentially recovered in 1Q. CSPC reported total revenue of RMB7.0bn in 1Q25, including RMB718mn from out-licensing (BD) income. Excluding the impact from BD, core revenue reached RMB6.3bn (+1% QoQ), representing 22% of our previous FY25 estimates. Excluding the BD impact, core net profit reached RMB868mn (+58% QoQ), accounting for 27% of our FY25 estimates. Sales of finished drugs (excluding BD income) declined 5% QoQ and decreased 37% YoY, mainly due to a 21% QoQ de ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is driven by the anticipation of significant business development (BD) deals, despite a decline in its Q1 2023 financial performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2023, CSPC reported revenues of approximately 7.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, marking the first time since 2022 that quarterly revenue fell below 8 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.478 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to the performance of the finished drug business, which generated approximately 5.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year [5]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, CSPC's stock price surged, increasing by 14.08% within half an hour and closing at 7.62, a rise of 11.73% [1]. - The stock continued to rise on May 30, reaching a peak of 8.56 HKD, with a total increase of 25.5% over two days, marking a new high since March 2023 [1]. Business Development Opportunities - CSPC is currently in discussions regarding three potential BD transactions, with a total potential value exceeding 5 billion USD [2]. - The company has been actively pursuing BD agreements to enhance its innovation capabilities, having completed multiple significant deals in recent years [9]. Challenges and Strategic Shift - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the impact of centralized procurement policies, which have significantly reduced prices for key products [6][7]. - CSPC's transition from generic to innovative drugs has faced challenges, necessitating a focus on innovation to overcome market recognition barriers [9]. Innovation and R&D Investment - CSPC has increased its R&D expenditures, with 2023 and 2024 figures reaching 4.830 billion yuan and 5.191 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 7.5% [8]. - The company has expanded its pipeline in various therapeutic areas, including oncology and cardiovascular diseases, and is developing advanced drug delivery systems [8]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - CSPC's ADC asset, SYS6010, has shown promising results in early-phase studies, with a potential peak sales forecast of over 2.5 billion USD in China and 1.5-2 billion USD in international markets [12]. - The positive clinical data for SYS6010 positions it as a strong candidate for future BD opportunities, enhancing CSPC's market competitiveness [10][12].