商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 05 日 铂：情绪较为悲观 钯：整体偏弱 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 563. 50 | | -1. 19% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 551. 68 | | -3. 37% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2165. 80 | | 3. 64% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2157. 40 | | 3. 65% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 433. 80 | | -0. 02% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 390. 00 | | -6. 70% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.698.50 | | 1. 58% | | | | 伦敦现货把金(前日) | 1.667.50 | | 1. 31% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | 11, 469 | -6, 438 | 28. 232 | 357 | ...

商 品 研 究 钯：低位盘桓 产 业 服 务 研 究 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 570. 30 | | -8.97% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 570. 90 | | -5. 85% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2089. 70 | | -9.87% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2081. 50 | | -9.56% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 433. 90 | | -6. 42% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 418. 00 | | -3.46% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.672.00 | | -7. 19% | | | | 伦敦现货靶金(前日) | 1.646.00 | | -7.24% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂( ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 铂：行情走势较为纠结 钯：预计盘整 产 业 服 务 研 究 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 626. 50 | | 0. 44% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 606. 35 | | -0. 60% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2318. 60 | | -2. 42% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2301. 40 | | -3. 13% | | | | 包金期货2606 | 463. 65 | | -0. 26% | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 433.00 | | 2. 12% | | | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.801. 50 | | -1. 45% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1,774.50 | | -0. 56% | | | | | 昨日成交 | ...

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铂、钯：避险情绪发酵，预计波动率提升，单边铂偏强 强弱分析：铂金偏强、钯金中性 价格区间：广铂主力560-700元/克、广钯主力410-510 元/克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 铂钯本周表现较为强势或为此前在2月26日晨报种提及的市场受消息面牵动情绪偏乐观，铂金领涨，钯金跟随。本周伦敦现货铂金周涨幅为9.4%，广铂周涨幅 13.03%；伦敦现货钯金周涨幅为0.56%，广钯周涨幅6.02%。具体交易的消息为2月25日津巴布韦颁布限制原矿及锂精矿出口公告，由于津巴布韦是世界第三 大铂族金属资源国，引发了市场上对于铂族金属供应的担忧。但实际津巴布韦的PGM ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 2026/2/24 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸税货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不拘成个人投资建议, 免 责 也未针对个别投资者持来的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负 声明 。本报告仅向特定客户推送、未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权、我司将视情况追究法律 责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITC 国贸期货 世界500强投资和212 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 ITG国贸期货 | | | | 白素娜 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标名称 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌幅 | 800 | 主要图表 - 期货收益价(活跃合约):铂 | | | | | 铂期货 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Platinum is in continuous shock consolidation, and palladium is in narrow - range shock [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 537.50 with a - 1.39% change, gold - exchange platinum at 549.47 with a 1.01% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 429.05 with a - 2.08% change, RMB spot palladium at 419.00 with a - 2.56% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 6,135 kg (down 7,342 kg), NYMEX platinum was 18,004 kg (down 12,597 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,099 kg (down 3,052 kg), NYMEX palladium was 10,569 kg (down 3,611 kg) [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum ETF holdings were 3,279,592 ounces (unchanged), palladium ETF holdings were 1,200,822 ounces (unchanged). NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369 ounces (down 63,072 ounces) [2] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 11.97 (down 10.02), Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was 11.50 (down 2.90). RMB spot palladium to PD2606 spread was - 10.05 (up 14.45), Guangdong palladium 2606 to 2610 spread was 4.90 (down 0.05) [2] - **Exchange - Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 96.86 with a - 0.78% change, USD/CNY (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.24% change, USD/CNH (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.20% change, USD/CNY (6M forward) was 6.83 with a - 0.45% change [2] Macro and Industry News - **Policy Statements**: Trump believes the interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and inflation [5] - **Economic Data**: US December retail sales month - on - month rate was 0%, lower than the forecast of 0.4%. ADP report shows US private - sector employment increased by 6,500 per week in the four weeks to January 24 [5] - **Geopolitical News**: Negotiations on Greenland are in the early stage, and talks will be held in the coming months. There are developments in the US - Iran nuclear - issue negotiation [5] - **Corporate News**: Alphabet plans to issue bonds to raise about £4.5 billion and over 3 billion Swiss francs [5] - **Domestic Policy**: Li Qiang emphasizes the rational development of rare - earth resources and key - core technology research [5] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength is 0, palladium trend strength is 0. The range of trend strength is [- 2,2], with - 2 being most bearish and 2 being most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum is rated as weak, and palladium is also rated as weak [3] Core View - Platinum and palladium prices may remain low for some time due to weak high - frequency data and the shadow over the precious metals sector. They lack the basis for a rapid rebound to previous highs. Palladium shows stronger resilience during the pullback [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Trading Volume and Position**: At the close of this week, the total position of Guangbo was 27,444 lots with a trading volume of 111,512 lots; the total position of Guangpalladium was 9,921 lots with a trading volume of 56,422 lots. Both trading volume and position decreased compared to last week. The trading volume and position of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [7] - **Price Structure**: This week, the monthly structure of platinum and palladium switched to B structure [7] - **Platinum - Palladium Ratio**: As the market continued to decline this week, the platinum - palladium ratio continued to converge. The foreign - exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.21, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.23 at the close on Friday. One can consider a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is between 1.15 - 1.2 [12] - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and New York platinum main contract was inverted on Friday, with the London price higher. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and New York palladium main contract was inverted before Friday and returned to a state where New York was at a premium on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an average value of $35.4 per ounce this week [15][19] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.4 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 22.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [21] - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 4.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 24.5 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 13.6 yuan per gram [23] - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 14.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [25] - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 5.0 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [27] - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 63.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 39.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [29] - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 53.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is 29.6 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [31] - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 58.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 71.2 yuan per gram, with a profit window of 12.5 yuan per gram [33] - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 49.9 yuan per gram, and the spread is 40.9 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [35] - **Recycling Spread**: The average platinum recycling discount this week was at - 88 yuan per gram, and the palladium recycling discount widened rapidly to around - 150 yuan per gram during the week [38] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 2.63 tons (about 84,400 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.68 tons (about 21,900 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs does not currently indicate a trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored in the future [40] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount for platinum and palladium has diverged. Platinum's forward discount has continued to significantly converge, with the full - term limit falling within 6% on Friday. Palladium's forward discount has risen rapidly, reaching around 4% on Friday [45] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory further declined to 646,400 ounces (about 20.11 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 50.5% on Friday [46] - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory slightly decreased to 190,900 ounces (about 5.94 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts rapidly increased to 77.7% [49] - **China's Import - Export Data**: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have soared, and imports and net inflows have diverged. The cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 553.88 tons. In December, both import and export amounts increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - Palladium: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, the import amount further increased to 5.68 tons, and the net inflow was 5.63 tons. January 2026 data is not yet available [57] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the average supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was - 5.5 kg, and it was - 50 kg on Friday. For palladium, the supply - demand balance was below - 150 kg on two days this week [58][59][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 5th, platinum and palladium prices declined overall. The PT2606 contract closed down 7.96% to 540.3 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 1.97% to 442.7 yuan/gram. Affected by the marginal market of macro - drivers and pre - holiday liquidity tightening, the precious metals market was sold off again. Platinum and palladium were no exception. Fundamentally, Trump plans to set up a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian - exported platinum, so platinum and palladium prices may still have support, especially palladium. In the short term, platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and long - term allocation opportunities after this significant decline can be focused on. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Therefore, the strategy suggests unilaterally allocating platinum at low prices or continuing to focus on the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price Changes - **Domestic Prices**: Platinum futures main contract closing price dropped from 599.85 to 540.3 yuan/gram, a decline of 9.93%. The spot price of platinum (99.95%) was 573.5 yuan/gram, a decline of 8.46%. The platinum basis (spot - futures) changed from - 15.3 to - 26.35, a decline of 41.94%. Lithium futures main contract closing price dropped from 461 to 442.7 yuan/gram, a decline of 3.97%. The spot price of lithium (99.95%) was 449 yuan/gram, a decline of 3.12%. The lithium basis (spot - futures) changed from - 7.7 to - 12, a decline of 35.83% [4] - **International Prices**: London spot platinum price dropped from 2322.4 to 2090.3 dollars/ounce, a decline of 9.99%. London spot palladium price dropped from 1802.914 to 1724.399 dollars/ounce, a decline of 4.35%. NYMEX platinum price dropped from 2304.6 to 2074.6 dollars/ounce, a decline of 9.98%. NYMEX palladium price dropped from 1804 to 1722.5 dollars/ounce, a decline of 4.52%. The dollar/renminbi middle - rate increased by 0.05% from 6.9533 to 6.957. The spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum (at 15:00) decreased by 9.10% from 13.18 to 11.98 yuan/gram. The spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum decreased by 9.77% from 17.67 to 15.94 yuan/gram [4] Price Ratios and Spreads - The ratio of Guangdong Futures Exchange platinum to palladium changed from 1.2205 to 1.3012, an increase of 0.0807. The ratio of London spot platinum to palladium changed from 1.2881 to 1.2122, a decrease of 0.0759. The spread between Guangzhou lithium and London palladium increased by 23.44% from 5.56 to 6.86. The spread between Guangzhou palladium and NYMEX palladium increased by 38.94% from 5.28 to 7.34 [5] Inventory and Position - NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 9.39% from 605259 to 662085 troy ounces. NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 208456 troy ounces. NYMEX total platinum position decreased by 0.55% from 79441 to 79009. NYMEX non - commercial net long position in platinum decreased by 7.95% from 15124 to 13922. NYMEX total palladium position decreased by 0.23% from 19167 to 19123. NYMEX non - commercial net long position in palladium decreased by 22.97% from 888 to 684 [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Platinum: Be vigilant about panic selling. - Palladium: Follow the weak adjustment [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Information**: - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 630.55 with a -11.70% decline; gold - exchange platinum at 638.39 with a -9.31% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2178.20 with a -17.40% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2180.80 with a -17.38% decline. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 464.05 with a -11.88% decline; RMB spot palladium at 484.00 with a -3.78% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1701.00 with a -16.41% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1711.00 with a -14.60% decline [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Information**: - Guangdong platinum trading volume was 41,775 kg (up 12,277 kg from the previous day), and the position was 33,860 kg (down 2,505 kg). NYMEX platinum trading volume was 88,712 kg (up 24,026 kg), and the position was 99,945 kg (down 1,281 kg). - Guangdong palladium trading volume was 20,005 kg (up 2,817 kg), and the position was 12,615 kg (down 518 kg). NYMEX palladium trading volume was 36,973 kg (up 7,101 kg), and the position was 49,380 kg (down 2,333 kg) [1]. - **ETF and Inventory Information**: - Platinum ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 3,364,010 (up 39,842). Palladium ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 1,222,741 (up 2,231). - NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 655,182 (unchanged), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 224,021 (unchanged) [1]. - **Spread Information**: - PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 7.84 (up 18.04 from the previous day); Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.05 (down 3.00); buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 7.74 (down 0.99). - RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was 19.95 (up 43.55); Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.05 (up 3.05); buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 5.76 (down 0.75) [1]. - **Exchange Rate Information**: - The US dollar index was 97.12 (up 1.42%); the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.95 (up 0.09%); the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.95 (up 0.10%); the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.87 (down 0.13%) [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The US federal government has entered a technical and partial "shutdown" state. - An informed source said that talks between Russia and the US have started in Miami, USA. - SpaceX has applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network. - According to Interfax, Russia has lifted the gasoline export ban for producers. - Huang Renxun said that he will definitely participate in the current investment in OpenAI, which may be the largest - scale investment in the company's history. - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. - Trump said that negotiations regarding Greenland have started, and he believes that the negotiations are basically in agreement and will eventually reach a deal, emphasizing that it is a "very important" agreement from a national security perspective [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: -1; Palladium trend intensity: -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3].

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on platinum and palladium by the Research Institute of Guomao Futures, focusing on price, inventory, and market analysis [2][3] 1. Price Information Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 633.85 yuan/g, up 0.85% from the previous value [4] - Platinum (99.95%) spot price: 618.5 yuan/g, down 0.56% [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): -15.35 yuan/g, up 136.15% [4] - Lithium futures main contract closing price: 483.75 yuan/g, down 0.42% [4] - Lithium (99.95%) spot price: 464.5 yuan/g, down 1.59% [4] - Lithium basis (spot - futures): -19.25 yuan/g, up 39.49% [4] International Prices - London spot platinum: 2468.754 dollars/ounce, up 1.39% [4] - London spot palladium: 1853.585 dollars/ounce, up 0.10% [4] - NYMEX platinum: 2468.9 dollars/ounce, up 1.27% [4] - NYMEX palladium: 1883.5 dollars/ounce, down 0.32% [4] Exchange Rate and Price Differences - Dollar/CNY central parity rate: 7.0019, up 0.01% [4] - Difference between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum: 5.85 yuan/g, down 36.16% [4] - Difference between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum: 5.81 yuan/g, down 30.76% [4] - Difference between Guangzhou lithium and London palladium: 12.23 yuan/g, down 17.26% [5] - Difference between Guangzhou lithium and NYMEX palladium: 4.62 yuan/g, down 10.77% [5] 2. Ratio and Inventory Information Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3103, up 0.0165 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3319, up 0.0170 [5] Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory: 675,766 ounces, up 1.71% [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 216,266 ounces, down 0.18% [5] Position - NYMEX total platinum position: 78,337, down 0.90% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum: 18,110, down 2.85% [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: 19,483, up 0.69% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium: 579, up 111.57% [5] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Market Analysis - On January 22, platinum and palladium opened lower and then rebounded, narrowing the decline. The PT2606 contract fell 0.92% to 63.85 yuan/g, and the PD2606 contract fell 1.9% to 483.75 yuan/g [6] - At the macro level, the Greenland crisis has eased, weakening market risk - aversion sentiment, which once suppressed platinum and palladium prices. However, due to high market uncertainty and weak US bond yields, there is still support for platinum and palladium prices [6] - Fundamentally, the US has decided to postpone imposing import tariffs on key minerals, alleviating the tariff risk for platinum and palladium. If the tariff risk decreases in the future, platinum and palladium inventories may shift from the US to non - US regions, which may ease the tight spot situation and suppress the upward space of platinum and palladium prices in the short term [6] Strategy - In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to changes in New York inventories [6] - In the long term, with a supply - demand gap for platinum and a relatively loose supply for palladium, the strategy can be to unilaterally allocate platinum at low prices or choose the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]