以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 ，作者：凯风 省域经济，天花板还在抬升。 经济总量翻番，意味着到2035年广东GDP总量要达到25万亿以上。 如果以2020年为基准，2035年广东GDP也要达到22万亿左右。 去年，广东GDP已站上14万亿大关，与俄罗斯相当，连续36年位居全国首位。 以25万亿为目标，年均名义复合增长率要在5%以上；以22万亿为目标，年均名义增速只要3.5%左 右。 无论如何，到2035年，广东大概率都会晋级20万亿大省，并朝着25万亿乃至更高水平跃升。 20万亿大省，还有多远？ 广东省"十五五"规划建议提出，从二十大到2035年，用13年时间基本实现社会主义现代化、建成一 个现代化的新广东。 "到那时，经济总量实现倍增，人均地区生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。 "二十大"召开的2022年，广东GDP为13万亿元左右。 如今，加州正在成为广东新的赶超对象，路虽远，但行则将至。 根据IMF统计，2024年加州名义GDP约为4.1万亿美元，与日本基本相当，放在全球可排在第四大经 济体。 广东之于中国，相当于加州之 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the development of a modern industrial system in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the integration of technological and industrial innovation to strengthen the real economy [9][10][12] - The article highlights the importance of traditional industries, such as steel and pharmaceuticals, in driving economic growth and their ongoing transformation through digitalization and automation [12][13][14] - The article mentions that since 2016, companies like Hunan Huazhong Steel have been implementing smart manufacturing solutions, resulting in significant efficiency improvements, such as reducing the steel slab rotation time from 6.7 seconds to 3.93 seconds [12][13] Group 2 - The article discusses the emergence of new and future industries, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, as part of the strategic focus for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [15][16] - Companies like Hidi Intelligent Driving Technology are capitalizing on market demands for automation in hazardous environments, such as mining, with significant policy support driving growth in this sector [16][18] - The article notes that the humanoid robot market in China is expected to reach approximately 870 billion yuan by 2030, indicating rapid growth in the robotics sector [17] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for collaborative innovation among government, enterprises, and research institutions to create a conducive environment for the development of a modern industrial system [19][20] - It highlights the establishment of over 230 excellent smart factories and 1,260 5G factories in China since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," showcasing the country's commitment to advancing its manufacturing capabilities [13][19] - The article points out that the value added by the "new economy" is projected to exceed 18% of GDP by 2024, indicating a significant shift towards new industries and business models [18][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.208 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.02%. However, the third quarter revenue of 860 million yuan showed a decline of 4.68% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its investments in low-altitude and AI cloud platforms, which are expected to drive future growth. The report highlights the company's strategic shift towards new emerging sectors, which is anticipated to enhance its core competitiveness [8]. - The report notes that the company's gross profit margin improved to 47.20% in Q3 2025, up by 0.34 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in net profit margin due to increased expense ratios [8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 4.331 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.9%. The net profit is expected to reach 440 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.2% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.54 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 74 [4]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with estimates of 620 million yuan in net profit for 2026 and 881 million yuan for 2027 [4][8]. Market Data - As of November 3, 2025, the company's closing price was 40.21 yuan, with a market capitalization of 32.493 billion yuan. The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 8.4 and a dividend yield of 0.32% [5].

Group 1 - The recent international expos in China emphasize the country's commitment to high-level openness and innovation cooperation with other nations, signaling a desire to address global challenges together [1][2] - The UK and Australia, as guest countries at the expos, showcased their largest delegations ever, indicating a strong interest in enhancing bilateral relations and re-engaging with the Chinese market [2][3] - Significant investment agreements were reached, with the 2025 Smart Industry Expo signing 298 major projects worth over 200 billion yuan, and the investment trade fair signing 1,154 projects with a total planned investment of 644 billion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - China's global innovation index ranking has improved to 11th, and it leads in AI patents and innovation clusters, highlighting its competitive edge in emerging industries such as 5G, big data, and renewable energy [3][4] - The trend in global cross-border investment is shifting towards the service sector and high-tech industries, with approximately 70% of foreign investment in China directed towards services [4][5] - The expos reflect a broader trend of economic globalization, with China positioned as a key player in maintaining stable supply chains and promoting multilateral trade [5]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Yunkang Southwest Headquarters and R&D Production Base has commenced construction in Chengdu's Eastern New District, with a total planned investment of 300 million yuan [1] - The project will focus on three main industrial modules: automotive aluminum components, low-altitude economy, and smart devices [1] - Upon completion, the project is expected to achieve an annual output value of 500 million yuan, with a cumulative output value projected to exceed 1.8 billion yuan by 2030 [1] Project Details - The project is located on the north side of Lingxin Road in Jianzhou New City, covering a net area of approximately 50 acres [1] - The construction period is set for 6 months, with an expected completion date in February 2026 [1] - The project is a joint venture between Shanghai Yunkang and Chengdu Ancheng Aluminum Industry, which will be responsible for investment and construction [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for 应流股份 Company Overview - 应流股份 is a leading enterprise in high-end casting, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of high-end components such as gas turbine blades, aircraft engine blades, nuclear power products, and low-altitude economy-related products [4][19]. Financial Performance - In 2024, 应流股份 achieved revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while profit was 290 million yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year [2][6]. - The decline in profit is attributed to increased investments in the two-machine business and new fields, leading to higher capital expenditures [2][6]. - Fixed assets reached approximately 4 billion yuan, with ongoing construction nearing 1.4 billion yuan, resulting in significant depreciation [2][6]. - Current gross margin is around 34%, with a net margin of 10%, expected to gradually increase to over 40% and net margins to 15%-20% in the future [6]. Market Dynamics - The gas turbine market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand influenced by AI, particularly in Europe and the US [2][9]. - Gas turbines are the primary power generation equipment in data centers in Europe and the US, accounting for nearly 70% of the market [10]. - The global gas turbine market is projected to be approximately 200 billion yuan in 2024, with the blade market alone estimated at 50 billion yuan [10]. Industry Trends - The capital expenditure of the four major cloud service providers in North America is expected to reach 212 billion USD in 2024, with a projected increase to 320 billion USD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 50% [11]. - The gas turbine market is dominated by GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which collectively hold nearly 90% market share [12]. Strategic Initiatives - 应流股份 plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds to enhance the production capacity of gas turbine and aircraft engine blade coating processes, aiming to increase output and average selling price (ASP) [2][8]. - The company has secured over 1.2 billion yuan in orders for gas turbine blades by the end of 2024, doubling compared to 2023 [3][13]. Competitive Landscape - The aircraft engine market is significantly larger than the gas turbine market, with the global aircraft engine manufacturing market exceeding 1 trillion yuan, compared to approximately 200 billion yuan for gas turbines [14]. - The order-to-sales ratio in the aircraft engine industry has increased from 0.8 in 2019 to 2.1 in 2024, indicating rapid growth [17]. Future Outlook - 应流股份 anticipates revenues of over 400 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 740 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 48x, 35x, and 26x [5][21]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand in the gas turbine and aircraft engine sectors, with a clear growth trajectory and high market potential [21]. Additional Insights - 应流股份 has established long-term strategic partnerships with GE Aviation and Safran, enhancing customer engagement and product development [18]. - The traditional casting business accounts for approximately 45% of the company's revenue, generating about 1.2-1.3 billion yuan annually with a stable gross margin of around 30% [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, market dynamics, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.