2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | œ 4 | | --- | | # | | 务 | | 1 | | 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 | S0350521080004 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 | S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | 证券分析师： | 张钰莹 | S0350524100004 | | | zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn | 联系人 | ： | 王鹏 | S0350125040009 | | wangp05@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | [Table_Title] Q2 归母净利润同比大增，两机订单保障持续增 长动力 ——应流股份（603308）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2025/08/21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 应流股份 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备 | 公司点评报告 增持|维持 个股表现 -16% 1% 18% 35% 52% 69% 86% 103% 120% 137% 154% 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 应流股份 机械设备 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 29.01 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）6.79 / 6.79 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）197 / 197 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 29.01 / 9.57 | | 资产负债率(%) | 56.1% | | 市盈率 | 69.07 | | 第一大股东 | 霍山应流投资管理有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 应流股份(603308) 发布时间：2025-08-21 股票投资评级 Q2 单季度业绩同比增长 57%，两机业务订单充裕 ⚫ 事件 8 月 12 日，应流股份发布 2025 年半年报。2025H ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector has shown a strong performance, with the SW Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 25.65% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [3][14]. - There is a sustained focus on investment opportunities in robotics, particularly as VLA models develop, allowing robots to operate in simple scenarios and learn quickly [5][22]. - Global demand for gas turbines is increasing, with significant order growth for companies like Yingliu Co., which has seen a 35.56% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders [5][59]. - The nuclear fusion power supply sector is approaching tendering opportunities, with a focus on suppliers with proven fusion orders [5][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Mechanical Equipment Index increased by 3.21% in the week of August 11-15, 2025, ranking 8th among 31 primary industry categories [3][13]. - Year-to-date, the index has risen by 25.65%, ranking 3rd among the same categories [14]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The PMI for manufacturing was at 49.3% in July, indicating continued pressure in the general machinery sector [24]. - Forklift sales in July reached 118,605 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [24]. Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales totaled 17,138 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with domestic sales up by 17.2% [35]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector has shown steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth [46]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the global new ship price index at 186.65, indicating a deceleration in price decline [47]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with global rig counts improving for two consecutive months [48]. Industrial Gases - The industrial gas sector is expected to perform well in Q3 due to previous maintenance activities impacting gas prices positively [57]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with GEV's new gas turbine orders reaching 12.2 GW in the first half of 2025, a 35.6% increase year-on-year [59][60]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights various industry developments, including successful project deliveries and new product launches in the robotics sector, indicating a vibrant market environment [62][63].

Summary of Conference Call for 应流股份 Industry Overview - The global AI data center capital expenditure is surging, particularly in Europe and the US, leading to a strong demand for gas turbines due to insufficient grid stability, with natural gas becoming the primary energy source [2][5] - The global gas turbine market is highly concentrated, with GEV (USA), Siemens Energy (Germany), and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) holding 80%-90% market share [2][6][8] - The gas turbine industry is expected to see a market space of approximately $28.1 billion (around 200 billion RMB) in 2024 [8] Key Points and Arguments - In 2024, global cloud infrastructure service spending is projected to reach $330 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with the four major US CSPs (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) increasing capital expenditure by 75% [2][5][7] - GEV's order backlog has reached levels sufficient to sustain operations until 2028, with a 113% year-on-year increase in new gas orders for 2024 [2][6][10] - Siemens Energy reported a 60% year-on-year increase in new gas business orders for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand trend [2][9] - The gas turbine blade industry is experiencing intense competition, with companies like Howmet and PCC expanding slowly, while Homate's gross margin has improved due to increased demand [2][11] Company-Specific Insights - 应流股份 is focusing on the gas turbine blade sector as its primary growth curve for the next three years, with potential expansion into the aerospace engine blade market in the future [3][12] - The company has seen explosive order growth since the second half of last year, reflecting strong downstream demand and price increases [3][15] - 应流股份 has been approved for convertible bond issuance to expand production capacity, which is expected to significantly enhance blade output and revenue potential in the coming years [3][15] Additional Important Information - The overall industry is experiencing high demand across various dimensions, including AI data center capital expenditure and gas turbine blade manufacturing, with significant improvements in gross margins and performance [2][14] - 应流股份 is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities due to the slow expansion of competitors and the high energy consumption and pollution associated with casting processes [3][13] - Market valuation concerns exist for 应流股份, currently estimated at 40 times earnings, but with significant growth potential projected over the next three years [2][16]

Summary of the Conference Call for 应流股份 Company Overview - 应流股份 is a leading enterprise in high-end casting, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of high-end components such as gas turbine blades, aircraft engine blades, nuclear power products, and low-altitude economy-related products [4][19]. Financial Performance - In 2024, 应流股份 achieved revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while profit was 290 million yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year [2][6]. - The decline in profit is attributed to increased investments in the two-machine business and new fields, leading to higher capital expenditures [2][6]. - Fixed assets reached approximately 4 billion yuan, with ongoing construction nearing 1.4 billion yuan, resulting in significant depreciation [2][6]. - Current gross margin is around 34%, with a net margin of 10%, expected to gradually increase to over 40% and net margins to 15%-20% in the future [6]. Market Dynamics - The gas turbine market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand influenced by AI, particularly in Europe and the US [2][9]. - Gas turbines are the primary power generation equipment in data centers in Europe and the US, accounting for nearly 70% of the market [10]. - The global gas turbine market is projected to be approximately 200 billion yuan in 2024, with the blade market alone estimated at 50 billion yuan [10]. Industry Trends - The capital expenditure of the four major cloud service providers in North America is expected to reach 212 billion USD in 2024, with a projected increase to 320 billion USD in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 50% [11]. - The gas turbine market is dominated by GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which collectively hold nearly 90% market share [12]. Strategic Initiatives - 应流股份 plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds to enhance the production capacity of gas turbine and aircraft engine blade coating processes, aiming to increase output and average selling price (ASP) [2][8]. - The company has secured over 1.2 billion yuan in orders for gas turbine blades by the end of 2024, doubling compared to 2023 [3][13]. Competitive Landscape - The aircraft engine market is significantly larger than the gas turbine market, with the global aircraft engine manufacturing market exceeding 1 trillion yuan, compared to approximately 200 billion yuan for gas turbines [14]. - The order-to-sales ratio in the aircraft engine industry has increased from 0.8 in 2019 to 2.1 in 2024, indicating rapid growth [17]. Future Outlook - 应流股份 anticipates revenues of over 400 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 740 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 48x, 35x, and 26x [5][21]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand in the gas turbine and aircraft engine sectors, with a clear growth trajectory and high market potential [21]. Additional Insights - 应流股份 has established long-term strategic partnerships with GE Aviation and Safran, enhancing customer engagement and product development [18]. - The traditional casting business accounts for approximately 45% of the company's revenue, generating about 1.2-1.3 billion yuan annually with a stable gross margin of around 30% [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, market dynamics, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer of high-end casting components, benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries [1][9] - The company has established a complete high-end component production system and is a key member of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry chain in China [18][19] - The company plans to issue 1.5 billion convertible bonds to enhance its production capabilities in turbine blade processing and advanced nuclear materials [9][33] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - The company focuses on aviation engines and gas turbine products, benefiting from the demand for domestic large aircraft and AIDC [18] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end parts, aerospace technology, and advanced materials sectors, serving various high-end equipment fields [18][22] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 2,513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [4][25] - The company's sales gross margin is projected to be 34.2%, with a net margin of 10% for 2024 [27][28] Gas Turbine Sector - The global gas turbine market is estimated to be 28.14 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034 [46] - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in gas turbine blades, with a significant increase in orders, achieving a 102.8% year-on-year growth in 2024 [2][61] Aerospace Sector - The global aerospace engine market was approximately 113.97 billion USD in 2023, expected to reach 151.20 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.12% [67] - The company is positioned to benefit from the doubling of global aircraft numbers over the next 20 years, as predicted by Airbus [68] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power industry is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% for installed capacity from 2023 to 2035 [3] - The company has established joint ventures to engage in nuclear fusion materials and components, enhancing its position in the nuclear energy sector [3][9]

Summary of Yingliu Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yingliu Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Gas turbine and aerospace engine manufacturing Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - **Significant Order Growth**: Since 2022, Yingliu has seen a notable increase in gas equipment orders, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second half of 2024, driven by rising demand in overseas power and natural gas generation markets, as well as a recovery in the aviation sector [2][5] - **Total Orders**: As of March 2025, total orders reached 1.2 billion RMB, with an additional 400 million RMB pending signature [2][5] Core Business Segments - **Gas Turbine Business**: Accounts for over 75% of total orders, approximately 1.3 billion RMB, with significant contributions from major clients like Siemens and Ansaldo [4][9] - **Aerospace Engine Business**: Orders nearing 300 million RMB, with long-term agreements signed with G1 Aviation and new orders from Safran and Rolls-Royce [4][8] Client Relationships - **Key Clients**: Major clients include Baker Hughes and Siemens, with long-term contracts leading to substantial order volumes. Baker Hughes has orders exceeding 30 million USD, while Siemens has increased its manufacturing tasks significantly [6][7] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Goals**: The company aims to achieve a revenue scale of 10 billion RMB, with ARDC business projected to reach 3-4 billion RMB [4][10] - **Convertible Bond Project**: Recently approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, funds will be used for blade casing processing and nuclear energy capacity expansion, with expected annual revenue exceeding 1.4 billion RMB post-completion [4][24] Competitive Landscape - **Domestic Market**: The domestic gas turbine market is growing, with increasing demand for natural gas power generation. Yingliu is positioned as a key supplier for major domestic electrical manufacturers [13][15] - **High-Temperature Alloy Market**: The gas turbine market is valued at over 20 billion USD, with high-temperature alloy casting accounting for 20-25% of this market [23][24] Future Development and Innovations - **Nuclear Fusion Initiatives**: The company is actively involved in nuclear fusion technology, collaborating with research institutions and investing in equipment for future growth [19][20] - **Low Altitude Economy**: Investments in low-altitude economy projects are expected to yield significant revenue in the next 3-5 years, focusing on drone transportation [22] Challenges and Risks - **Tariff Impacts**: Since the implementation of tariffs in 2018, the company has not faced significant client pushback regarding pricing, maintaining a stable market share despite reduced revenue from the U.S. market [18] Conclusion Yingliu Co., Ltd. is positioned for substantial growth in the gas turbine and aerospace engine sectors, supported by strong client relationships, a robust order backlog, and strategic investments in technology and capacity expansion. The company aims to leverage its competitive advantages to achieve ambitious revenue targets while navigating market challenges.

Summary of the Conference Call for Yingliu Technology Company Overview - Yingliu Technology is a leading domestic player in the fields of gas turbine blades, combustion chamber nozzle rings, and aircraft engine blades, supplying major global companies such as GE and Siemens [2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a non-recurring net profit of 136 million yuan in Q1 2025, with full-year revenue expected to accelerate to between 440 million and 450 million yuan, and projected revenues for the next two years to reach 600 million and over 800 million yuan, maintaining a growth rate of over 40% [2][6] - The gross margin for the two-machine business segment has consistently remained above 40% [2][6] Investment and Asset Development - As of the end of 2024, fixed assets are expected to reach 4.086 billion yuan, with ongoing construction projects around 1.6 billion yuan, and a research and development expense ratio maintained above 12% [2][5] Market Dynamics - The global gas turbine market is dominated by Mitsubishi, Siemens, Baker Hughes, and GE, which together hold approximately 80% of the market share. These leading companies are experiencing significant order growth and are actively expanding production, indicating accelerated industry demand [2][12] - Orders from major manufacturers are booked until 2029, reflecting strong future demand [2][12] Strategic Initiatives - Yingliu Technology is advancing its two-machine projects, including blade and casing processing coating projects, with expected future output value increasing to 1.5 billion yuan. Combined with nuclear energy projects, total output value is anticipated to increase by 2.1 billion yuan, enhancing production capacity and growth potential [2][7] Nuclear Energy Sector - The company has made significant strides in the nuclear energy sector, with clients including Emerson and Schlumberger. It is one of the few domestic manufacturers with nuclear-grade pump equipment qualifications [4][24] - The approval of nuclear power projects in China has remained steady, with at least 10 units expected to be approved annually, driving demand for equipment [4][24] Aerospace Sector - Yingliu Technology has established strategic partnerships with major players in the aerospace sector, including airlines and engine manufacturers, indicating a strong competitive position in this market [4][18][22] - The company has developed over 80 product varieties, including blades and structural components, and is expected to see a continuous increase in new orders due to rising demand in the aerospace market [22][23] Domestic Market Trends - China's civil aviation market is projected to grow significantly, with the number of passenger aircraft expected to exceed 10,000 in the next 20 years, positioning China as the largest single aviation market globally [20] - The domestic push for the localization of gas turbines and aircraft engines is accelerating, supported by government policies and recent technological advancements [21] Valuation Insights - Yingliu Technology's current valuation has just surpassed 30 times earnings, which is still lower compared to international leaders like GE and Howmet, whose valuations are typically between 50 to 60 times earnings. The company is expected to maintain a profit growth rate of at least 40% over the next three years [27] Conclusion - Yingliu Technology is well-positioned for growth in the gas turbine and aerospace sectors, with strong financial performance, strategic investments, and a favorable market outlook. The company's valuation appears to have significant upside potential given its growth trajectory and industry dynamics [27]

Summary of the Conference Call for 应流股份 Company Overview - 应流股份 is involved in multiple sectors including gas turbines, aviation engines, and nuclear power, with a focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing profitability through increased capacity utilization and product development [2][9][10]. Key Industry Insights Gas Turbine Sector - The gas turbine business has seen record revenue and orders, with a forecast upgrade for fiscal year 2025 due to rising electricity demand in Europe, India, and the US, particularly for small to medium-sized gas turbines [2][3]. - Potential signed projects in the gas turbine sector could reach 10 to 20 GW, indicating strong overseas order demand [2][3]. - The supply chain for gas turbine blades is tight, with core suppliers operating at full capacity, which is affecting the availability of blades for gas turbines [2][5]. Aviation Engine Sector - The aviation engine market is experiencing significant growth, driven by domestic demand for large aircraft and opportunities in Southeast Asia [6][12]. - The market size for aviation engines exceeds 100 billion RMB, with strong demand from clients like 吉祥航空, 赛峰, and 罗罗 [12]. - 应流股份 has established strategic agreements with major clients, indicating a robust pipeline for future orders [12]. Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power industry has seen a continuous increase in approved projects since 2019, with the share of nuclear energy in total power generation rising from approximately 4% in 2018 to about 5% currently [7][8]. - 应流股份 is well-positioned in the nuclear sector, with expected revenue growth from 4.2 to 5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting the industry's upward trajectory [15][16]. Financial Performance - 应流股份 has shown a consistent improvement in profitability, with a significant increase in orders, particularly in the gas turbine sector, where total orders reached approximately 1.2 billion RMB [10][11]. - The company’s gross margin has improved, benefiting from capacity release and cost dilution effects [2][9]. - The expected growth rate for the nuclear power sector is between 10% to 20%, with potential for even higher growth [10]. Strategic Developments - 应流股份 has a comprehensive product coverage in gas turbine blades, with over 700 models and more than 100 projects under development [11]. - The company is focusing on domestic substitution opportunities in the heavy-duty segment, which could enhance its competitive position [5]. - The capital expenditure has been steadily increasing, indicating ongoing investments in capacity and technology [13]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment for the gas turbine and aviation engine sectors remains positive, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [10][14]. - 应流股份 is strategically positioned to benefit from both domestic and international market trends, with a focus on expanding its market share in the gas turbine and aviation engine sectors [10][18]. Conclusion - 应流股份 is poised for substantial growth across its key sectors, supported by strong demand, strategic partnerships, and a focus on innovation and capacity expansion. The company’s financial health and market positioning suggest a promising outlook for investors [2][9][18].