Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts to boost consumption across various regions and sectors in China, with a focus on initiatives such as trade-in programs for consumer goods and the promotion of digital and service consumption [1][6] - In October, retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while cosmetics retail sales grew by 9.6%, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards upgraded experiences and products [3][4] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods has shown significant effects, with retail sales of communication equipment rising by 23.2% and cultural office supplies by 13.5% in October, both outpacing the overall retail sales growth [4] Group 2 - Service consumption has also seen positive growth, with retail sales accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous months, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday effects [5] - Retail sales in the tourism, information services, and cultural and recreational services categories maintained a growth rate of nearly 10% in October, reflecting strong consumer demand in these sectors [5]

Economic Overview - The national economy remains stable with a steady development trend, as indicated by the National Bureau of Statistics [1][3] - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [2][3] Consumer Market - The sales of upgraded consumer goods, such as communication equipment and cultural office supplies, showed significant growth, with increases of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [2] - Basic living goods also saw strong sales growth, with food and daily necessities increasing by 9.1% and 7.4% year-on-year [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, but the physical workload of investments is still increasing [4] - Manufacturing investment continues to grow, supported by the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the development of emerging manufacturing sectors [4] Price Changes - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase for the first time, influenced by seasonal demand and rising international metal prices [6][7] Future Outlook - There is a need to continue expanding domestic demand and improving market competition to promote reasonable price recovery [6][7] - Investment in education, healthcare, housing, and public services is essential to address gaps in social welfare [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The growth of mid - stream machinery manufacturing is prominent, and the downstream real estate shows a slight recovery. The plastics in the upstream chemical products are under price pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while industrial metals remain strong due to supply shortages. In the mid - stream, the added value of the machinery industry in the first three quarters increased significantly, with the automotive and electrical machinery industries having high growth rates, and the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry also performing well. In the downstream, the cultural and tourism market is active, online retail continues to thrive, and some upgraded consumer goods show good growth, but the sales of traditional fuel - powered vehicles decline, and the real estate sales in first - tier cities increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Medium - term Overview - **Upstream**: As of October 26, plastics in chemical products faced price pressure due to supply surplus and weak demand during the peak season. Industrial metals remained strong due to supply shortages, with copper prices fluctuating at a high level due to global mine - end supply disruptions and aluminum prices having potential upward elasticity as the capacity utilization rate is at a high level [1]. - **Mid - stream**: In the third - quarter report data released this week, the added value of the machinery industry above the designated size in the first three quarters increased by 8.7% year - on - year, significantly higher than the national industrial average. The growth rates of the automotive and electrical machinery industries exceeded 11%, making outstanding contributions. The added value of the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.2%, and the output of industrial robots in the first nine months reached 595,000 sets, exceeding the whole - year figure of last year [1]. - **Downstream**: In the third - quarter report data released this week, the cultural and tourism market was active, with double - digit growth in box office revenues of the film and performance markets, and active tourism travel. Online retail continued to be active, with the proportion of online retail sales in the total social retail sales rising to 40.5%. Upgraded consumer goods showed good growth, with the retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry products increasing by 33.5% and sports and entertainment products also growing. The retail sales of basic daily necessities such as grain, oil, food, and daily necessities increased by 8.2% and 3.7% respectively. The retail sales of automotive products decreased, and the sales of traditional fuel - powered vehicles were sluggish. The real estate sales in first - tier cities increased significantly this week [1]. II. Industry Overview - **Production Industry**: No specific content provided other than the industrial added - value and PPI data figures in the graphs [22][20]. - **Service Industry**: No specific content provided other than the data figures in the graphs [25][30]. III. Industry Pricing - **Industry Market Pricing**: No specific content provided other than the graph [31]. - **Industry Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of various industries are presented in a table, showing the data of last year's same - period, one month ago, last week, this week, and the quantiles for industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; mining; chemical industry; etc. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry this week is 41.55, with a quantile of 0.00 [32]. IV. Sub - industry Tracking - **Generalized Agriculture**: Palm oil prices declined, while corn and cotton prices increased [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: Styrene and polyethylene prices decreased. Urea inventory continued to rise, PVC inventory decreased slightly, and the inventories of methanol and pure benzene showed no significant change compared with the previous period [5]. - **Non - ferrous Industry**: The prices of some non - ferrous metals such as zinc and aluminum increased, and copper prices fluctuated. The inventories of some non - ferrous metals such as lead and copper decreased cyclically [4]. - **Ferrous Industry**: The prices of some ferrous metals such as soda ash, hot - rolled coils, and rebar decreased, while the coking coal price increased significantly. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly [4]. - **Infrastructure Industry**: The concrete price remained stable, and the bagged cement price increased. The concrete shipment volume and capacity utilization rate increased slightly [6]. - **Logistics and Transportation Industry**: Railway transportation declined, while road transportation increased [7]. - **Automobile Manufacturing Industry**: The retail sales of automotive products decreased, and the sales of traditional fuel - powered vehicles were sluggish [1]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities increased significantly compared with the previous period. The sales in cities like Chengdu, Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Nanjing increased more. The housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei decreased [6].

Group 1 - The total market consumption in Beijing from January to July increased by 0.7% year-on-year, driven by active service consumption in transportation, information, and cultural entertainment sectors, which grew by 4.6% [1] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods (referred to as social retail total) reached 767.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, influenced by the weakening advantages in key consumption areas [1] - Retail sales of fashion and entertainment goods such as gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, and sports and entertainment products increased by 32.7%, 8.2%, and 6.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 6.9% due to the "old-for-new" policy, while basic living goods like grain and oil food and daily necessities saw increases of 12.1% and 3.1% respectively [1] - The retail sales of communication equipment decreased by 24.4%, primarily due to changes in business models and the establishment of cross-regional operating entities [1] - The automotive retail sales fell by 19%, mainly due to insufficient demand for fuel vehicles, which also affected related petroleum and product sales [1] Group 3 - The social retail total reflects the retail situation of consumer goods and does not fully represent the overall consumption demand [2] - The consumption market in Beijing remains on a growth trajectory, with an ongoing trend of consumption structure upgrading [2] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth are expected to boost confidence on both supply and demand sides, enhancing new consumption vitality [2]

Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall service retail sales remained stable, with a growth of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] - The combined retail sales of goods and services for the first seven months showed a preliminary growth of around 5% [1] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The consumption expansion trend remains unchanged, supported by special actions to boost consumption [2] Retail Performance - In July, the retail sales of goods reached 34,276 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, increasing by 1.1% [5] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [5] Service Consumption Trends - July saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, information services, and digital entertainment [8] - The summer tourism season has led to a 5.5% increase in the production index of transportation, storage, and postal services [9] - The popularity of sports events has significantly boosted local economies, with ticket sales driving related sectors such as dining, transportation, and accommodation [9] Emerging Consumption Patterns - New consumption trends are emerging, with a notable increase in demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products, reflected in the growth of retail sales in these categories [6] - The search volume for leisure activities has surged, indicating a growing interest in experiences such as beauty services and indoor entertainment [10] - The rise of new consumption modes, including personalized and diversified spending, is becoming more prominent [12] Future Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to continue growing, with the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increasing [12] - As GDP per capita approaches 1.5 million USD, a shift from goods to service consumption is anticipated, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [11]

Core Insights - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods in China showed a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of the goods market [1] - The service retail sector remained stable, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months, suggesting that the overall consumption trend is still on the rise [1] Group 1: Goods Retail Performance - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment growing by 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, and 14.9% respectively in July [1] - There is a notable increase in the sales of upgraded goods, driven by rising consumer demand for quality, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and gold and jewelry growing by 13.7% and 8.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Retail Performance - The cultural and tourism service retail sector has seen significant growth, driven by increased travel demand during the summer, with various services such as tourism consulting, transportation, and cultural leisure services maintaining double-digit growth [2] - Information service retail has also experienced rapid growth, with retail sales in the telecommunications and information services sector increasing by over 10%, reflecting a positive development trend in the industry [2] Group 3: Emerging Consumption Trends - Online and emerging consumption channels are thriving, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - New consumption models such as live-streaming sales and the silver economy are rapidly developing, indicating the emergence of new growth points in consumption [2]