Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, with a need for macro policies to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote dual circulation [1][2] - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9%, while social retail sales grew by 3.7%, down from 4.8% in June [1][2] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a slowdown [1][2] Industrial Performance - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 6.8%, influenced by slowing investment and consumption growth [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [2] Consumption and Policy Measures - Starting in August, measures to expand consumption include the introduction of childcare subsidies and the exemption of certain education fees, aimed at boosting consumer spending [3][4] - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in central fiscal consumption subsidies will be implemented, with a fourth batch expected to continue until the end of the year, supporting retail growth [2][3] Challenges and Future Outlook - The real estate sector and local infrastructure investment present ongoing challenges, requiring time to address accumulated issues [3][4] - Short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies have impacted July's economic data, but the introduction of macroeconomic policies in August is expected to promote effective investment and enhance domestic demand [4]

在2024年底债市走出快牛后，2025年一季度利率出现了剧烈的调整；美国关税风波开启后，利率再次快 速震荡向下。随着对关税政策和预期的反复博弈，股和债都在波动中反复寻找相对均衡的点位，但基本 面方面外贸带来的冲击比较现实，国内经济以新兴产业为引领，依赖传统城投和地产等融资相对冗余行 业的模式逐渐淡去。在内外部现在的背景下，央行的货币政策可能更被需要，其进一步宽松措施的必要 性也更强，但其将综合考虑时代背景和宏观经济整体，节奏并不确定。二季度，重要期限收益率或有突 破前低的可能性，但波动仍将持续存在，利率风险仍需要重视。 一季度，在经济尚未明显改善的情况下，央行货币政策定力相对较强，货币市场资金成本相对较高。监 管或有更多综合因素的考虑，包括年初稳定汇率的需求，前期关税预期并未如后来如此强烈，小阳春数 据有亮点，权益市场在科技股带动下情绪较强等。但是，货币政策的支持性立场始终明确，后续更强的 货币投放可能如市场预期，海外冲击带来国内风险较快提升，国内财政政策加码后对更多货币支持的需 要，股市、楼市等风险的累积和集中释放。目前来看，由于美国的强硬态度，关税问题短期无法解决， 相应对冲政策也将越来越重要。 关税政策 ...