基本生活类商品稳定增长。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位粮油食品类商品零售额同比增长5.8%，饮料类商品零售额同比增长18.9%，日用品类商品零售额 同比增长8.4%。以上三类商品零售额合计占全市限额以上单位消费品零售额的比重为13.3%，拉动增长0.9个百分点。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点记者管悦 9月24日，济南市统计局公布1-8月份消费品市场相关情况。记者获悉，今年以来，济南市扎实推动扩内需促消费政策落实落细，消费需求逐步释放，全市 消费品市场保持平稳运行。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位消费品零售额1319.2亿元，同比增长2.1%。 线上消费活力不断提升。随着电商直播、即时零售等线上消费新场景的不断拓展，济南市线上消费动能进一步释放。1-8月份，济南市限额以上单位通过 公共网络实现的商品零售额同比增长21.2%，拉动全市限额以上单位消费品零售额增长4.8个百分点。占全市限额以上单位消费品零售额的比重由去年全年 的23.2%提升至26.7%。 新能源汽车保持较高热度。随着新能源汽车技术不断提质升级，叠加消费者观念转变，济南市新能源汽车销售市场热度不减。1-8月份，济南市限额以上 单位新能源汽车零售额同比增长12. ...

Economic Overview - Jinan's economy showed overall stability in the first eight months of 2023, with a focus on implementing national macro policies effectively [1] - The city's industrial production increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% in the value added of above-scale industries [1] Industrial Performance - The six key industries in Jinan experienced a combined value added growth of 13.0%, surpassing the overall industrial growth by 4.9 percentage points [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors saw remarkable growth, with increases of 63.3% and 27.6% in the automotive manufacturing sector [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry maintained a strong growth rate of 21.3%, contributing 9.6 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] - High-tech manufacturing also performed well, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, contributing 4.2 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Service Sector - The service sector showed steady growth, with above-scale service industry revenues reaching 275.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [2] - Among the ten major service sectors, eight reported revenue growth, with transportation, storage, and postal services generating 115.58 billion yuan, up 5.2% [2] - The leasing and business services sector achieved a revenue of 45.68 billion yuan, growing by 15.9% [2] - Private enterprises in the above-scale service sector generated 109.12 billion yuan, accounting for 39.6% of the total service revenue, with an 8.8% growth rate [2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in Jinan showed a stable growth, with a total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 131.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Basic living goods performed well, with food and oil retail sales increasing by 5.8% and daily necessities by 8.4% [3] - Online consumption remained active, with retail sales through public networks reaching 35.26 billion yuan, growing by 21.2% [3] - The "trade-in" policy positively impacted sales, with significant growth in communication equipment (34.7%), cultural and office supplies (32.5%), and new energy vehicles (12.8%) [3] Financial and Trade Performance - Financial institutions in Jinan reported a total deposit balance of 3.19063 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.9% year-to-date [4] - The total loan balance reached 3.42752 trillion yuan, increasing by 10.2% since the beginning of the year [4] - Jinan's foreign trade saw rapid growth, with total imports and exports reaching 178.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [4] - Exports amounted to 118.16 billion yuan (up 21.7%), while imports were 59.87 billion yuan (up 36.3%) [4] - Private enterprises accounted for 59.5% of the total trade, with a total of 105.92 billion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 17.5% [4] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Jinan increased by 0.2% cumulatively in the first eight months, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% in August [5] - Prices of eight major categories of goods and services showed a "five up, three down" trend, with healthcare and living services rising by 0.3%, clothing by 1.6%, and education and entertainment by 5.8% [5] - Conversely, housing prices decreased by 0.6%, food and tobacco prices fell by 1.7%, and transportation and communication prices dropped by 2.9% [5]

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month in August [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development, it grew by 4.2% [1][2] - The total import and export volume in August increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports rising by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [1][6] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year from January to August, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][3] - Despite fluctuations, the sales of commercial housing and residential prices have shown a narrowing decline, indicating progress in destocking [2] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote housing demand [3] Consumer Market - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a growth of 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [5] - In August, key consumer goods such as furniture and home appliances saw significant sales growth, with increases of 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [6] - The film industry also experienced a surge, with box office revenue and attendance increasing by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year in August [6] Export Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. fell by 32.9% in August, which was a significant drag on overall export performance [7] - However, exports to non-U.S. and non-ASEAN regions grew by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating successful market diversification efforts [7] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline was less severe than in previous months [8] - Factors contributing to the narrowing PPI decline include improved market competition, increased demand in emerging industries, and effective consumption-boosting policies [8]

Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall service retail sales remained stable, with a growth of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] - The combined retail sales of goods and services for the first seven months showed a preliminary growth of around 5% [1] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The consumption expansion trend remains unchanged, supported by special actions to boost consumption [2] Retail Performance - In July, the retail sales of goods reached 34,276 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, increasing by 1.1% [5] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [5] Service Consumption Trends - July saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, information services, and digital entertainment [8] - The summer tourism season has led to a 5.5% increase in the production index of transportation, storage, and postal services [9] - The popularity of sports events has significantly boosted local economies, with ticket sales driving related sectors such as dining, transportation, and accommodation [9] Emerging Consumption Patterns - New consumption trends are emerging, with a notable increase in demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products, reflected in the growth of retail sales in these categories [6] - The search volume for leisure activities has surged, indicating a growing interest in experiences such as beauty services and indoor entertainment [10] - The rise of new consumption modes, including personalized and diversified spending, is becoming more prominent [12] Future Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to continue growing, with the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increasing [12] - As GDP per capita approaches 1.5 million USD, a shift from goods to service consumption is anticipated, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [11]

Core Insights - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods in China showed a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of the goods market [1] - The service retail sector remained stable, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months, suggesting that the overall consumption trend is still on the rise [1] Group 1: Goods Retail Performance - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment growing by 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, and 14.9% respectively in July [1] - There is a notable increase in the sales of upgraded goods, driven by rising consumer demand for quality, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and gold and jewelry growing by 13.7% and 8.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Retail Performance - The cultural and tourism service retail sector has seen significant growth, driven by increased travel demand during the summer, with various services such as tourism consulting, transportation, and cultural leisure services maintaining double-digit growth [2] - Information service retail has also experienced rapid growth, with retail sales in the telecommunications and information services sector increasing by over 10%, reflecting a positive development trend in the industry [2] Group 3: Emerging Consumption Trends - Online and emerging consumption channels are thriving, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - New consumption models such as live-streaming sales and the silver economy are rapidly developing, indicating the emergence of new growth points in consumption [2]

Core Insights - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 284,238 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Overview - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods in July were 34,931 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.3% [1] - For the first seven months, the retail sales excluding automobiles totaled 257,014 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] Group 2: Urban vs Rural Consumption - In July, urban retail sales reached 33,620 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 5,160 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.9% [3] - From January to July, urban retail sales totaled 246,669 billion yuan, increasing by 4.8%, and rural retail sales reached 37,569 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% [3] Group 3: Consumption Types - In July, the retail sales of goods were 34,276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, growing by 1.1% [3] - For the first seven months, the retail sales of goods amounted to 252,254 billion yuan, increasing by 4.9%, and catering revenue reached 31,984 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.8% [3] Group 4: Retail Formats - From January to July, retail sales in convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores grew by 7.0%, 5.2%, 1.1%, 5.8%, and 1.9% respectively [5] - The online retail sales for the first seven months reached 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, and physical goods online retail sales were 70,790 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% [5] Group 5: Detailed Retail Data - In July, the retail sales of food and oil products grew by 8.6% and 11.8% respectively, while the sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 28.7% and 30.4% [6] - Conversely, the retail sales of petroleum and related products decreased by 8.3%, and automobile sales fell by 1.5% in July [6]

Core Viewpoint - International institutions are raising their economic growth forecasts for China, highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy as a reflection of policy effectiveness, market performance, and growth potential [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Resilience - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year to reach 5.2%, with further upward potential, having raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have also adjusted their GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, increasing them by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [2]. - The shift from export-driven growth to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with the impact of consumption policies [2][5]. Emerging Sector Development Potential - Foreign institutions emphasize the potential in technology innovation and market opportunities, with China positioned to lead in global high-tech competition, particularly in artificial intelligence [4]. - The strong resilience of the Chinese market is attracting global enterprises, as they plan to increase trade and manufacturing in China despite uncertainties in international trade [4]. Positive Changes in Consumption - The retail sector shows resilience, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and communication equipment, driven by consumption policies [5]. - The increase in retail sales in May, particularly in specific categories, contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [5]. Sustained Economic Development - Recent economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI and logistics index, signal a positive trend in the Chinese economy [6]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue its moderately loose monetary policy and accelerate fiscal spending to boost domestic demand [7]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards is seen as crucial for activating the economy's internal momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of the economy driven by policy support and export growth, while also highlighting the weakening trends in real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Stability - The investment sector shows strong performance, with equipment purchases contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [5][11]. - Consumer demand for durable goods remains robust, with retail sales of home appliances and related categories contributing 27.4% to total retail sales in April, reflecting a growth rate of 10.6% for durable goods [5][11]. - The trade sector continues to perform well, with a trade surplus growth rate of 33.6% in April, supported by an 8.1% year-on-year increase in exports [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Changes - The real estate market shows signs of weakening, particularly in the "strong five cities" (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu), where the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.2% in April, compared to a 0.46% increase in March [6][13]. - Manufacturing investment growth is slowing, particularly in the raw materials sector, which saw a significant decline in investment growth to 2.7% from January to April, down from previous levels [7][17]. Group 3: April Economic Data Overview - In April, industrial production growth was recorded at 6.1%, while service sector production index grew by 6.0%. Retail sales growth was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March [21][22]. - The real estate sector experienced a decline in sales area by 2.1% year-on-year in April, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 3.5% [21][30]. - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight deflation at -0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% [21][22]. Group 4: Employment and Investment Trends - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating a slight improvement in the job market [23]. - Fixed asset investment growth was recorded at 3.6% in April, with manufacturing investment showing a cumulative growth of 8.8% from January to April [37].

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.0%, indicating strong economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a stable growth trajectory, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and diversifying exports [1][3] Export Performance - Despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in April, China's total exports in dollar terms grew by 8.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The increase in exports is attributed to a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of U.S. tariff implementations [3][6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The consumption upgrade policy, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment maintained a growth rate of 4% in the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [4] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, despite overall stability in the real estate market [8][9] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic growth [1][7] - There is a call for expanding consumption policies to include service consumption and products transitioning from export to domestic sales [7][8]

Economic Recovery - The economic recovery in China is supported by a solid foundation, with retail sales and service production indices growing by 4.7% and 5.9% respectively from January to April, showing a slight acceleration compared to the previous quarter [1] - Exports increased by 7.5% and industrial added value grew by 6.4% during the same period, indicating overall stability despite external shocks [1] Policy Support - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has intensified, with significant contributions from equipment investment, which rose by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, accounting for 64.5% of total investment growth [2] - Recent measures include reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with the establishment of new policy financial tools to support technological innovation and consumption [2] Consumer Potential - Various regions and departments are actively promoting consumption through special initiatives, with retail sales in categories related to home appliances and cultural products contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall retail growth [2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% in the first four months, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening consumer demand [2] Innovation and Industry Growth - There is a strong push for the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with high-tech manufacturing value added growing by 10% in April, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of smart drones surged by 74.2% and new energy vehicle output increased by 38.9%, reflecting advancements in key technology sectors [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Supported by multiple favorable factors, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend [4]