Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall service retail sales remained stable, with a growth of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] - The combined retail sales of goods and services for the first seven months showed a preliminary growth of around 5% [1] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The consumption expansion trend remains unchanged, supported by special actions to boost consumption [2] Retail Performance - In July, the retail sales of goods reached 34,276 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, increasing by 1.1% [5] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [5] Service Consumption Trends - July saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, information services, and digital entertainment [8] - The summer tourism season has led to a 5.5% increase in the production index of transportation, storage, and postal services [9] - The popularity of sports events has significantly boosted local economies, with ticket sales driving related sectors such as dining, transportation, and accommodation [9] Emerging Consumption Patterns - New consumption trends are emerging, with a notable increase in demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products, reflected in the growth of retail sales in these categories [6] - The search volume for leisure activities has surged, indicating a growing interest in experiences such as beauty services and indoor entertainment [10] - The rise of new consumption modes, including personalized and diversified spending, is becoming more prominent [12] Future Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to continue growing, with the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increasing [12] - As GDP per capita approaches 1.5 million USD, a shift from goods to service consumption is anticipated, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [11]

Core Insights - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 284,238 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Overview - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods in July were 34,931 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.3% [1] - For the first seven months, the retail sales excluding automobiles totaled 257,014 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] Group 2: Urban vs Rural Consumption - In July, urban retail sales reached 33,620 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 5,160 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.9% [3] - From January to July, urban retail sales totaled 246,669 billion yuan, increasing by 4.8%, and rural retail sales reached 37,569 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% [3] Group 3: Consumption Types - In July, the retail sales of goods were 34,276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, growing by 1.1% [3] - For the first seven months, the retail sales of goods amounted to 252,254 billion yuan, increasing by 4.9%, and catering revenue reached 31,984 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.8% [3] Group 4: Retail Formats - From January to July, retail sales in convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores grew by 7.0%, 5.2%, 1.1%, 5.8%, and 1.9% respectively [5] - The online retail sales for the first seven months reached 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, and physical goods online retail sales were 70,790 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% [5] Group 5: Detailed Retail Data - In July, the retail sales of food and oil products grew by 8.6% and 11.8% respectively, while the sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 28.7% and 30.4% [6] - Conversely, the retail sales of petroleum and related products decreased by 8.3%, and automobile sales fell by 1.5% in July [6]

Core Viewpoint - International institutions are raising their economic growth forecasts for China, highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy as a reflection of policy effectiveness, market performance, and growth potential [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Resilience - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year to reach 5.2%, with further upward potential, having raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have also adjusted their GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, increasing them by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [2]. - The shift from export-driven growth to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with the impact of consumption policies [2][5]. Emerging Sector Development Potential - Foreign institutions emphasize the potential in technology innovation and market opportunities, with China positioned to lead in global high-tech competition, particularly in artificial intelligence [4]. - The strong resilience of the Chinese market is attracting global enterprises, as they plan to increase trade and manufacturing in China despite uncertainties in international trade [4]. Positive Changes in Consumption - The retail sector shows resilience, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and communication equipment, driven by consumption policies [5]. - The increase in retail sales in May, particularly in specific categories, contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [5]. Sustained Economic Development - Recent economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI and logistics index, signal a positive trend in the Chinese economy [6]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue its moderately loose monetary policy and accelerate fiscal spending to boost domestic demand [7]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards is seen as crucial for activating the economy's internal momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of the economy driven by policy support and export growth, while also highlighting the weakening trends in real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Stability - The investment sector shows strong performance, with equipment purchases contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [5][11]. - Consumer demand for durable goods remains robust, with retail sales of home appliances and related categories contributing 27.4% to total retail sales in April, reflecting a growth rate of 10.6% for durable goods [5][11]. - The trade sector continues to perform well, with a trade surplus growth rate of 33.6% in April, supported by an 8.1% year-on-year increase in exports [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Changes - The real estate market shows signs of weakening, particularly in the "strong five cities" (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu), where the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.2% in April, compared to a 0.46% increase in March [6][13]. - Manufacturing investment growth is slowing, particularly in the raw materials sector, which saw a significant decline in investment growth to 2.7% from January to April, down from previous levels [7][17]. Group 3: April Economic Data Overview - In April, industrial production growth was recorded at 6.1%, while service sector production index grew by 6.0%. Retail sales growth was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March [21][22]. - The real estate sector experienced a decline in sales area by 2.1% year-on-year in April, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 3.5% [21][30]. - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight deflation at -0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% [21][22]. Group 4: Employment and Investment Trends - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating a slight improvement in the job market [23]. - Fixed asset investment growth was recorded at 3.6% in April, with manufacturing investment showing a cumulative growth of 8.8% from January to April [37].

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.0%, indicating strong economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a stable growth trajectory, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and diversifying exports [1][3] Export Performance - Despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in April, China's total exports in dollar terms grew by 8.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The increase in exports is attributed to a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of U.S. tariff implementations [3][6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The consumption upgrade policy, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment maintained a growth rate of 4% in the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [4] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, despite overall stability in the real estate market [8][9] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic growth [1][7] - There is a call for expanding consumption policies to include service consumption and products transitioning from export to domestic sales [7][8]

Economic Recovery - The economic recovery in China is supported by a solid foundation, with retail sales and service production indices growing by 4.7% and 5.9% respectively from January to April, showing a slight acceleration compared to the previous quarter [1] - Exports increased by 7.5% and industrial added value grew by 6.4% during the same period, indicating overall stability despite external shocks [1] Policy Support - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has intensified, with significant contributions from equipment investment, which rose by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, accounting for 64.5% of total investment growth [2] - Recent measures include reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with the establishment of new policy financial tools to support technological innovation and consumption [2] Consumer Potential - Various regions and departments are actively promoting consumption through special initiatives, with retail sales in categories related to home appliances and cultural products contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall retail growth [2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% in the first four months, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening consumer demand [2] Innovation and Industry Growth - There is a strong push for the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with high-tech manufacturing value added growing by 10% in April, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of smart drones surged by 74.2% and new energy vehicle output increased by 38.9%, reflecting advancements in key technology sectors [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Supported by multiple favorable factors, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the effects of policies aimed at boosting consumption are becoming evident, leading to a sustained increase in consumption's contribution to economic growth [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Effects - Various regions and departments are actively implementing the Central Committee's decisions to boost consumption through special actions and the "two new" policies [1] - The innovation of diverse consumption scenarios and the active expansion of service consumption are showing positive results [1] Group 2: Consumption Data - In April, the retail sales of home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and construction materials collectively contributed 1.4 percentage points to the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - From January to April, service retail sales grew by 5.1%, accelerating for two consecutive months [1] - During the "May Day" holiday, the number of domestic travelers increased by 6.4% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the effects of policies continue to manifest and consumption momentum strengthens, the contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to enhance further [1]