证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 基金销售行业进一步规范；多家券商优化两 融业务布局 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 行业走势 -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 2024/12/16 2025/4/15 2025/8/13 2025/12/11 非银金融 沪深300 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 相关研究 《吴清提出拓宽券商资本空间；保险 优化股票风险因子》 2025-12-07 《基金绩效管理办法下发，引导基金 员工激励与长期业绩挂钩》 2025-12-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 12 月 08 日-2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown a decline in trading volume, with the commercial real estate REITs pilot program progressing steadily [1] - The insurance industry has surpassed a total asset value of 40 trillion yuan, indicating robust growth [5][23] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors within non-bank finance, with insurance leading in growth [11] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (November 24-28, 2025), all sub-sectors of non-bank finance underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with insurance up by 0.21%, securities by 0.75%, and multi-financial by 1.63% [10] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 14.41%, while multi-financial has risen by 6.76% [11] Securities Sector - Trading volume has decreased month-on-month, with the average daily trading amount for November at 22,411 billion yuan, a 12.90% decline from the previous month but a 4.61% increase year-on-year [15] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a consultation draft for the commercial real estate REITs pilot program, aiming to enhance the market [18][21] Insurance Sector - As of Q3 2025, the total assets of insurance companies reached 40.4 trillion yuan, a 12.5% increase from the beginning of the year [23] - The insurance sector's premium income for the first three quarters was 5.2 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth [23] - The report indicates a strong cyclical characteristic in the insurance industry, with expectations for improvement in both liabilities and investments as the economy recovers [27] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan in 2024, a 23.58% year-on-year increase [30] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 6.03 billion hands in October 2025, with a transaction value of 61.22 trillion yuan, indicating a 4.56% year-on-year growth [35] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the non-bank financial sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial [46] - Key recommended companies include China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [46]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong non-bank sector is currently in a favorable environment characterized by "valuation trough, recovery in prosperity, and macro-friendly" conditions, making it suitable for medium to long-term allocation [1] Group 1: Sector Characteristics and Investment Logic - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index is a significant sub-index in the Hong Kong market, selecting no more than 50 non-bank financial stocks, with over 65% of its composition in the insurance sector [2] - Understanding the business model of the insurance industry is crucial for grasping the investment value of this index, which has a highly concentrated industry distribution [2][4] Group 2: Long-term Development Drivers and Short-term Catalysts - Three long-term drivers support the continuous growth of the insurance industry: the low insurance penetration in China compared to developed markets, the advantages of savings-type insurance products in a declining yield environment, and the ability of insurance funds to enhance investment returns through diversified asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [5] - In the short term, the insurance industry is experiencing positive improvements in fundamentals, with regulatory measures guiding a reasonable reduction in liability costs and an increase in the proportion of participating insurance products [6] Group 3: Market Characteristics and Valuation Analysis - The Hong Kong non-bank sector has a unique dual attribute, being highly correlated with the domestic economic recovery while also sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity and exchange rate changes [7] - The current market environment is favorable for the Hong Kong non-bank sector, with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle and a shift towards global liquidity easing, creating good conditions for valuation recovery [7][10] Group 4: Investment Tool Selection and Allocation Value - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF and its linked funds are among the most focused and scarce products in the Hong Kong non-bank index market, with a scale of approximately 21.5 billion [10] - This product offers several advantages, including concentrated exposure to high-quality stocks like AIA and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, lower historical volatility, and a semi-annual adjustment of constituent stocks to maintain structural stability and operational transparency [10] Group 5: Overall Investment Opportunity - The Hong Kong non-bank sector is poised for a dual enhancement in fundamentals and valuations, with a favorable macro environment supporting this trend [11] - Investors can efficiently allocate to this undervalued and growth-resonant financial sub-sector through the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF and its linked funds [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector continues to show high growth despite a high base in Q3, driven by regulatory support for high-quality health insurance development [5][22] - The securities sector has seen a year-on-year increase in trading volume, with significant growth in margin financing balances [5][15] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust assets increasing but profits declining significantly [5][32] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent five trading days (October 13-17, 2025), only the insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.73%, while the overall non-bank financial sector declined by 1.09% [10][11] Non-Bank Financial Subsector Views Securities - Trading volume has increased year-on-year, with the average daily trading amount in October reaching 27,366 billion yuan, up 22.33% from the previous year [5][15] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the corporate governance guidelines for listed companies, enhancing oversight and accountability [17][20] Insurance - Major insurers like New China Life and China Property & Casualty are expected to report significant profit increases for Q3, with New China Life's net profit projected between 30 billion to 34.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [5][22] - Regulatory initiatives are promoting the development of health insurance, with a focus on integrating new medical technologies and improving long-term care insurance [26][30] Multi-Financial - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, but profits have dropped significantly [5][32] - The futures market saw a year-on-year increase in transaction volume and value, indicating a potential recovery in trading activity [5][37] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the sectors as follows: Insurance > Securities > Other Multi-Financial [5][47] - Key company recommendations include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, highlighting the low average valuations and safety margins in the non-bank financial sector [5][47]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the life insurance industry in China, highlighting its evolution, challenges, and market dynamics [1][12][17]. Key Points and Arguments Life Insurance Product Characteristics - Life insurance products are not merely contracts but also convey values, necessitating continuous business expansion to meet diverse customer needs [1][2]. - The distinction between life insurance and property insurance lies in underwriting subjects and risk management; life insurance involves complex demographic and actuarial models, introducing interest rate risks [1][4]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Life insurance companies are increasingly engaging in mergers and acquisitions to expand market share, acquire customer resources, and enhance product diversity [2][3]. - The financial metrics indicate that mergers can optimize balance sheets, improve capital return rates, and achieve economies of scale [3]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese insurance industry has experienced three significant development phases: 1. Rapid growth driven by critical illness insurance starting in 2013. 2. Expansion following the cancellation of agent exams in 2015. 3. Disruption from the introduction of low-cost "惠民保" (Huiminbao) products post-2020, which significantly impacted traditional critical illness insurance [12][13][14]. Pricing Logic - The pricing logic for insurance products is based on a cost-plus model, incorporating death benefits, operational costs, and time costs [6][21]. - Key pricing factors include mortality differences, expense differences, and interest differences, with actuaries analyzing historical data to forecast future cash flows [6][8]. Sales and Distribution - Life insurance products require a substantial number of agents for sales due to their intangible nature, necessitating face-to-face interactions to convey the product's value [7][29]. - The sales process emphasizes the transmission of values, such as family responsibility, rather than straightforward product pricing [5][7]. Financial Performance and Challenges - The current new business value of life insurance companies in China is less than 5% of their existing liabilities, indicating difficulties in re-pricing liabilities in response to market interest rate fluctuations [22][23]. - The life insurance sector is characterized by rigid liability costs, making it challenging to adjust quickly to changing market conditions [21][25]. Investment Trends - The ongoing decline in fixed-income product yields has led insurance funds to increase equity asset allocations, driving a systemic valuation recovery [27][28]. - The preference for low-valuation stocks among debt-like funds is a core logic for recommending investments in the insurance sector [27][19]. Future Outlook - The life insurance industry is expected to face continued pressure on return on equity (ROE) due to declining interest rates, with 2023 ROE at 9% and projected to rise to 17% in 2024 [26]. - The shift towards savings-type products and the need for stable liability coverage will be critical for the industry's future performance [31][17]. Regulatory and Market Environment - The regulatory environment and macroeconomic conditions significantly influence the life insurance sector, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of these factors for effective analysis [45][46]. Additional Important Insights - The introduction of "惠民保" has altered consumer perceptions of critical illness insurance, leading to a decline in traditional product sales [13][14]. - The life insurance industry's reliance on long-term stability strategies rather than rapid market responses is emphasized due to the challenges in adjusting liability costs [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the life insurance industry's current state and future prospects.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance, with securities firms expected to report high growth in mid-2025, and the insurance sector also showing promising results [1][4] - The report highlights the significant increase in trading volume and the positive outlook for brokerage firms, driven by an active capital market [4][18] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term investment strategies and regulatory changes that enhance the allocation of insurance funds to equity assets [22][29] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust assets continuing to grow despite a decline in profits [31][36] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent five trading days (July 14-18, 2025), all non-bank financial subsectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the securities and insurance sectors both down by 1.00% [9] - Year-to-date, the multi-financial sector has performed the best, with an increase of 11.63%, followed by the insurance sector at 10.07% [10] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased, with the average daily trading amount for July 2025 reaching 17,090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.40% [14] - The mid-2025 earnings forecast for brokerage firms is optimistic, with 27 out of 29 listed brokerages expected to report profit increases, and 12 firms anticipating at least a 100% growth in net profit [18] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities sector is projected at 1.3x for 2025E, indicating potential for growth [21] Insurance Sector - The introduction of long-term assessment guidelines for state-owned insurance companies is expected to enhance the allocation of insurance funds to equity investments [22] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.60-0.93 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered low historically, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [29] - The sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales of savings-type products [51] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [31] - The futures market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and value, with June 2025 figures showing a 28.91% increase in volume and a 17.40% increase in value year-on-year [37] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to strengthen the management of local asset management companies, promoting healthy industry development [48] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the non-bank financial sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial [51] - Key companies recommended include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The life insurance premium continues to grow significantly, with a focus on the virtual asset license theme [1] - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index recently [9][10] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, while the securities sector is poised for growth due to favorable market conditions [44] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Performance - All sub-sectors of non-bank financials outperformed the CSI 300 index in the recent five trading days, with multi-financials up 9.96%, securities up 7.56%, and insurance up 3.89% [9] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has performed the best, followed by multi-financials, while the securities sector has seen a decline [10] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased, with the average daily trading amount for June reaching 15,212 billion yuan, an increase of 84.97% year-on-year [15] - The heat for virtual asset licenses is rising, with major Chinese brokers like Guotai Junan International obtaining licenses to provide virtual asset trading services [19] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is estimated at 1.2x for 2025, indicating potential for growth [22] Insurance Sector - Life insurance premiums have shown a positive trend, with total premiums for the first five months of 2025 reaching 24,473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [24] - The regulatory focus is on promoting inclusive finance, with initiatives aimed at enhancing the supply of inclusive insurance products [26] - The insurance sector is characterized by a significant cyclical nature, with expectations for improved performance as the economy recovers [28] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is entering a stable transition phase, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.58% [29] - The futures market saw a decline in trading volume and value in May 2025, but is expected to recover due to increased demand for risk management [36] - The report suggests that innovative risk management services will be a key growth area for the futures industry moving forward [42] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the industry is insurance > securities > other multi-financials, with key companies including New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, China Ping An, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [44]